Já se sabia, empiricamente, que o aumento da dívida pública reduz o crescimento econômico, por diversas razões, todas muito conhecidas. Um estudo dotado do necessário rigor científico vem corroborar essa "impressão". Não se sabe por que, no Brasil, tantos economistas acham que o Estado vai "impulsionar" o crescimento atuando de forma desequilibrada em relação às contas públicas...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Public Debt and Growth
MANMOHAN KUMAR, International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department
JAEJOON WOO, DePaul University - Department of Economics
IMF Working Paper No. 10/174
This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.
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