... Humans are not ergodic, however. We move through the world along a single path, and we get only that one path. Where we are on that path, our experiences, our interactions, the view we have of the world at that moment all determine the context for our actions. That path is not repeatable; we are not taking draws from a distribution. (page 42)
- commercial construction was the housing bubble of the 1920s.
- securities loans were the subprime of the 1920s.
- installment loans were the option-ARM rate resets of the 1920s.
- securities affiliates were the structured investment vehicles of the 1920s.
- America was the Germany or Japan of 1920s exporters.
For more articles by Arnold Kling, see the Archive.