O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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Mostrando postagens com marcador Belt and Road Initiative. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Belt and Road Initiative. Mostrar todas as postagens

sexta-feira, 16 de julho de 2021

What is China’s, Belt and Road Initiative? - Adam Taylor and Canadian Freedom Institute (The Trade Letter)

 Um artigo que reune informações úteis e também muita paranoia. A China não faz muito diferente do que fizeram os colonialistas europeus e os imperialistas americanos.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

What is China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

From Belt and Road to Belt and Noose

The Trade Letter, July 16. 2021

A lot has changed for China in recent years. A decade ago, virtually every industrialized country was clamouring for deeper trade and investment ties. While globalization officially made China the factory to the world decades earlier, China’s rise was not only viewed as inevitable, it was viewed as a net positive for the world. 

After all, China had shown that embracing open markets and engaging in global trade was good for its economy and lifted hundreds of millions of people literally out of poverty. Buoyed by its growing strength and global influence came what has become known as the Belt and Road Initiative. Let us take a closer look at this strategy, a central plank in China’s foreign policy.

What is it?

At its core, the Belt and Road Initiative is a transportation and infrastructure plan to create a viable economic and trade network between Asia, Africa and Europe. The term Belt and Road was first uttered by China’s President, Xi Jinping, in 2013 at a university in Kazakhstan, which was a refreshed version of the ancient Silk Road that had previously connected various parts of the work.  Overall, the intent is to make massive investments in ports, pipelines, roads, railways, airports and other “gateway” infrastructure that will facilitate trade, foster closer economic integration and strengthen people-to-people ties.

As of January 20021, 140 countries worldwide have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to join the Belt and Road Initiative across Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, Central Asia, East Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S.-based think tank, China has spent some $200 billion on the initiative to date.  In short, it is a big deal.

What does China hope to achieve?

Optimists (idealists) believe China is simply doing what other countries worldwide are doing: Strengthening trade and investment ties around the world to create economic growth and prosperity. However, skeptics believe it is yet another example of China’s creeping plan for global domination as it seeks to stretch its political, military and economic reach to every corner of the world. No doubt both are correct as the two are not mutually exclusive. 

Why be worried?

In the past few years, it has become abundantly clear that investments made under the BRI come with strings attached, specifically through Chinese government loans. The Center for Global Development has reported that various partner countries are now vulnerable to full-blown debt crises due to high debt loads owed to Beijing.

Moreover, just this week, Montenegro, one of the countries listed in the Center for Global Development report, tried to refinance the $944 USD it borrowed from China with an American or European bank.  Bob Rae, Canada’s Ambassador to the United Nations quipped on Twitter that the Belt and Road “becomes the Belt and Noose.” He stated further, more seriously, that “Chinese commercial banks are state controlled, and the full dimensions and terms of their lending must be revealed.” He added that this will be a a “huge post Covid issue.” The Ambassador is correct on all counts. 

What is next?

In recent years, China has gone from a country that much of the world hoped would continue to reform to one that has laid bare its ambitions and values, which are not shared with much of the developed world. From unfair trading practices to intellectual property theft to outright human rights violations, the open door policy many countries had for China a decade ago is now seen as naïve. Add the Belt and Road Initiative to the list of supporting evidence that will no doubt continue to grow.


sexta-feira, 29 de março de 2019

Generous Scholarship to Study In China 2019, Program Overview For Silk Road School of Renmin University

Aos possíveis interessados.
Recebi de parceiros chineses com quem já havia empreendido eventos conjuntos, no passado, quando eu ainda me desempenhava como diretor do IPRI-MRE.
Já não poderei mais fazê-lo, e duvido que o "novo" IPRI o faça, mas isso não me impede de divulgar esta oportunidade para estudos na China, para quem se candidatar e puder ganhar a bolsa.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Dear Paulo Roberto de Almeida,

Warm greetings from Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China(RDCY). I am writing to extend my sincere gratitude for your continued support to RDCY, as well as your wholehearted concern to our new established Silk Road School in 2018.
Today 
I would like to take this opportunity to share with you some update from our side, particularly RDCY’s think tank development progress in the past year of 2018, which can not be separated from your continued support. Some of our policy briefs have been approved by policy makers with high admiration. We organized important conferences with more than 200 persons, and over 100 public events, published over 1800 articles and 10 books, as well as a series of research reports in the fields of macro economySino-US relation, Belt and Road Initiative, 40 years anniversary of reform and opening-up etc.
It's also worth mentioning that Silk Road School launched last year in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, jointly organized by Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies (RDCY), School of International Studies, and Suzhou Campus of Renmin University of China. It has enrolled 72 students from 35 countries in September 2018 with the support of all partiesThey already started the courses of Master of Contemporary Chinese Studies (MCCS) at Silk Road School in Suzhou, a two-year English master’s program. And it is expected to enroll around 100 students in September 2019. 

Now we are working on this MCCS program promotion domestically and internationally, If possible, we would like to ask you for some recommendation of young students to participate into this project, and your kindly forwarding and sharing of this program will be highly appreciated.

For the further details about Silk Road School enrollment, please find attached the program overview. In case of any question, please feel free to contact us.

Attachments:  
1. Silk Road School Program Overview For Scholarship to Study In China 2019
2. Silk Road School brochure
3. Introduction of Renmin University of China (RUC)

Websites:
Online Application (before March 30th, 2019): http://silkroad.school
Silk Road School: http://srs.ruc.edu.cn/
International Student Office of RUC: http://iso.ruc.edu.cn/more.php?cid=77

Application Schedule:
Cut-off date for online applications: March 30, 2019
Interview online: April, 2019
Letters of admission sent out: June, 2019
Semester begins: September2019

Contact:
Thank you very much for your attention, and look forward to hearing from you soon.  

Very truly yours,
Wu Yinxuan
Deputy Project Manager, Assistant Research Fellow of Chongyang Institute For Financial Studies, Renmin University of China
Fax: 86-10-62516305

sábado, 28 de julho de 2018

Welcome to the Chinese World Order: interests, not values - BergGruen Institute (WP)

Weekend Roundup: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order
A China-led world order would be based on interests, not values.

Nathan Gardels, Editor in Chief
Visit the WorldPost at http://www.theworldpost.com 
A map of the new Silk Road, connecting Asia to Europe. (Maxiphoto/Getty)
As the United States abandons the postwar multilateral system it once led, China is stepping into the breach, laying the groundwork for a post-American world order.

We are already getting a glimpse of what is to come through China’s various initiatives, ranging from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to the Belt and Road project and the 16+1 group, which is developing Chinese-financed projects in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. China is also seeking to connect a global electricity grid powered by wind and solar as a means to sustain development while fighting climate change.

This new order will not be like the old. At least for now, it is not multilateral but comprised of multiple bilateral relationships linked to the Chinese core. And given China’s “one world, many systems” perspective, it is based not on a convergence of values, but of interests.

President Xi Jinping has cast these initiatives with a positive spin as building “a community of shared future for mankind.” The most cynical critics regard them as a thin fig leaf disguising China’s quest for global dominance and merely a means to find markets for overproduction as its domestic economy slows. Xi’s vision is also clouded by manifold reports of debt overload and kickbacks for corrupt leaders. In Sri Lanka, China has taken over a port it built because Sri Lanka couldn’t afford the debt. The same dynamic seems to be developing in Pakistan and Laos; the new Malaysian government, meanwhile, has put its Chinese-financed rail project on hold, citing corruption and disadvantageous terms negotiated by the previous regime.

There is no mileage in being naive about China’s ambitions and its self-interested motives. But lining up with hostility against China’s initiatives the way Joseph Stalin and his minions did toward the Marshall Plan after World War II — which did wonders for a devastated Europe while also benefiting the United States through purchases of imports from American companies that were required to cross the Atlantic on American merchant ships — is a mistaken course for the West. And let’s not forget that the American expansion of railroads westward in the 19th century also led to a crisis of corruption and over-indebtedness. Despite the turmoil and losses, when it was all sorted out, the result in the end was a connected continent that became a foundation of American prosperity.

Twenty years from now, the same will likely be true of Eurasia and Africa as a result of China’s initiatives, even with all of their faults. That is why, to diminish the downsides, the proper stance would be for the West to join with China’s efforts at global development so that the process is more transparent and less corrupt, with terms that don’t foster debt traps and amount to creditor imperialism. The experience of the “clean, lean and green” AIIB, which many Western nations — though not the United States — have joined, shows that high standards can be imposed if the West is a participant instead of an outsider as the new order is being built.

After all, it is not as if Western nations on their own are going to finance and construct infrastructure around the world. No one needs reminding that the United States has been unable to build a single high-speed rail project anywhere on its vast territory. By and large, it can’t even manage to finance the repair of old infrastructure, much less invest in anything new. The European Union remains mired in deep disagreements about how to manage its own internal finances.

While critics carp from the sidelines, those in need of help are grateful. “When we were faced with financial crisis, amidst the wider challenges of the E.U., China helped us,” Greece’s former prime minister George Papandreou recalled in a recent conversation with me. “China was one of the few nations to buy our sovereign bonds. This was an important vote of confidence. Then China began its investment in the Port of Piraeus, an early investment that is now one of the major components of the new maritime Silk Road. These investments showed great trust in my country’s capacity to overcome the crisis, where few others would.”

In The WorldPost this week, we address these issues of a growing vacuum in the world order and China’s attempt to fill it, for good and for ill.

Ali Wyne sees the demise of the American-led postwar order as less a consequence of President Trump’s wrecking ball and more a victim of its own success. That order, built to avoid another devastating world war among major powers, achieved its goal. Along with an open trading regime, it was this stable absence of global conflict that enabled China’s peaceful rise.

The result of success, Wyne contends, has been a complacency that has eroded the founding urgency that sustained a broad and deep commitment of states and their publics. That makes revitalizing the order a challenge. “The modernization of the world order would ideally result from farsighted diplomacy,” writes Wyne. “It is more likely, though, that policymakers will do little more than push for incremental improvements to an inadequate system” thereby allowing “forces — ranging from external challenges to populist uprisings — to continue testing its foundations. The potential result of indefinite erosion — a vacuum in order, without a coherent alternative to replace it — is unpalatable.”

Noting that the creation of new orders has historically followed upon cataclysmic events like the world wars, Wyne concludes: “In a nuclear age, though, it is terrifying to consider what might have to occur for a new order to emerge.”

To the extent that China is fostering an alternative to the vacuum, Jonathan Hillman doesn’t like what he sees. “The Belt and Road is a masterstroke in geopolitical advertising. Wrapping the effort in Silk Road mythology, Xi is effectively selling a Sino-centric order to the world,” he writes from Budapest. “In practice, the Belt and Road is a sea of bilateral deals between China and participating countries, including many markets where few others dare to go. More than half of the countries participating in the Belt and Road have sovereign debt ratings that are either junk or not graded. China’s emphasis on building big-ticket infrastructure projects resonates with foreign leaders looking to impress at home and establish a legacy.”

For Hillman, this mix of a debt trap with the megalomania of corrupt local autocrats will not spell stability and progress but a costly waste of resources as nations become tributaries beholden to Chinese largesse.

As China extends its influence globally, it will inexorably be drawn into local conflicts, just as the United States was in its period of dominance. “For decades, Beijing refrained from meddling with sovereign nations’ internal affairs,” Denise Hruby writes from Juba, South Sudan, where the China National Petroleum Company owns a 40 percent share of the country’s largest oil fields. “As long as economic ties flourished, it would turn a blind eye toward human rights abuses and corruption. But with increasing investments abroad comes more clout, and as the United States scales back its international commitments, China is emerging as an obvious development partner.”

Hruby reports that while China initially sought a direct role in ending the South Sudan conflict, which threatens its investments, it was soon overwhelmed by the complexity of militia and tribal politics. China fields its largest contingent of U.N. peacekeeping forces there, but it has reverted to a stance that “African problems must have African solutions” and looks to the African Union and other local mediators to resolve the crisis while it stands on the sidelines.

Jeffrey Sachs sees Trump’s effort to staunch China’s newfound influence while abandoning America’s own successful model of development as achieving the opposite of its intent. “American prosperity since World War II has been built upon science and technology breakthroughs spurred by a powerful innovation system linking the federal government, business, academia and venture capital,” he writes. “U.S. innovation policy has been successfully emulated in Europe and Asia, most recently by China. President Trump’s trade war against China aims to slow China’s technology ascent but is misguided and doomed to fail; instead, American prosperity should be assured by doing what America does best: innovating at home and trading with the rest of the world.”
Nathan Gardels, Editor in Chief
Kathleen Miles, Executive Editor 
Dawn Nakagawa, Vice President of Operations
Peter Mellgard, Features Editor 
Alex Gardels, Video Editor 
Clarissa Pharr, Associate Editor 
Rosa O’Hara, Social Editor 

The WorldPost, a partnership of the Berggruen Institute and The Washington Post, is an award-winning global media platform that aims to be a place where the world meets. We seek to make sense of an interdependent yet fragmenting world by commissioning voices that cross cultural and political boundaries. Publishing op-eds and features from around the globe, we work from a worldwide perspective looking around rather than a national perspective looking out.