Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;
President Xi Jinping’s vision for powering China’s economy through a major manufacturing drive is raising tensions with some of his nation’s biggest trading partners.
The domestic need for growth means he’s unlikely to change course.
During her visit to China this week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen implored top Chinese leaders to rethink their industrial strategy, saying the Asian nation was producing more goods than the world could bear.
The trained economist advised policymakers to improve “retirement security” and “affordable education” to reduce household savings and encourage domestic spending, in a bid to rebalance the world’s second-largest economy.
Essentially, she proposed an entire rethink of their economic strategy.
The leadership in Beijing well knows the problems, and even outlined overcapacity as an issue in a major policy document earlier this year.
But an entrenched crisis in the property sector that once drove about a quarter of annual expansion means China can’t afford to abruptly shift plans if it wants to hit an ambitious growth target of around 5% this year.
President Joe Biden’s campaign to severely restrict China’s access to cutting-edge semiconductors only adds to the impetus. China has made technological self-sufficiency a national priority, as it tries to advance domestic chip design and manufacturing to protect against threats from US policy.
With a US presidential election looming in America this November, Beijing is facing increasing pressure from the world’s biggest economy with Republican contender Donald Trump threatening 60% tariffs on China.
As Xi tries to challenge the US-led world order, his main partner in that mission is President Vladimir Putin.
Daniel Kahneman, psicólogo que revolucionou a economia, morre aos 90 anos
Vencedor do Prêmio Nobel ajudou a dar origem ao campo da economia comportamental junto do colega Amos Tversky; pesquisas mostraram a relevância dos vieses em tomadas de decisões, que afetam escolhas financeiras
Stephen Miller
Bloomberg, 27/03/2024
Daniel Kahneman, um psicólogo cujo trabalho lançou dúvidas sobre a racionalidade da tomada de decisões, ajudou a originar o campo da economia comportamental e lhe rendeu um Prêmio Nobel, faleceu. Ele tinha 90 anos.
Ele morreu nesta quarta-feira (27), relatou o Washington Post, citando sua enteada, Deborah Treisman, editora de ficção da New Yorker. Não há outros detalhes disponíveis.
Kahneman contestou pressupostos sobre a racionalidade que dominavam a economia por décadas. Ele conseguiu mostrar a lógica por trás de diversos comportamentos intrigantes — por que as pessoas se recusam a vender ações que perderam valor, ou por que irão dirigir até uma loja distante para economizar em um pequeno item, mas não para obter a mesma economia em um item caro.
Kahneman era “o psicólogo mais influente do mundo em vida”, disse o professor da Universidade Harvard, Steven Pinker, ao Guardian em 2014. “Seu trabalho é realmente monumental na história do pensamento.”
Trabalhando com o psicólogo Amos Tversky, Kahneman isolou vieses que distorcem a tomada de decisões. Estes incluem aversão à perda e como a forma como uma pergunta é formulada pode afetar a resposta. Por exemplo, se um programa de saúde salvará 200 vidas e resultará em 400 mortes, se será aceito pode depender se seus proponentes destacam as vidas salvas ou as vidas perdidas.
Kahneman afirmou que o cérebro reage rapidamente e com base em informações incompletas, muitas vezes com resultados infelizes. “As pessoas são projetadas para contar a melhor história possível”, disse em uma entrevista de 2012 à Associação Americana de Psicologia. “Não gastamos muito tempo dizendo: ‘Bem, há muito que não sabemos.’ Nos viramos com o que sabemos.”
Sob o rótulo “teoria do prospecto”, Kahneman e Tversky iniciaram uma revolução na psicologia e depois na economia, que raramente era considerada uma ciência experimental. O campo da economia comportamental surgiu no final do século XX, à medida que um grupo de jovens economistas usava suas percepções para desafiar noções clássicas de “homo economicus”, o ator racional.
Em entrevista à Bloomberg Línea em 2022, o psicólogo afirmou que a inteligência artificial obrigaria as lideranças nas empresas a conviver, em um futuro próximo, com uma realidade em que decisões estratégicas de negócios dentro de corporações serão tomadas também pela IA.
“Não vai demorar muito até que a inteligência artificial seja melhor do que as pessoas porque ela aprende mais rápido (...) Portanto, podemos esperar que haverá cada vez mais áreas em que a inteligência artificial se tornará cada vez mais importante”, disse Kahneman.
‘Campo minado cognitivo’
Em 2011, Kahneman publicou o best-seller Rápido e devagar: Duas formas de pensar, encontrando uma grande audiência para suas ideias. O estudo apresentou uma visão abrangente da mente como contendo dois sistemas, um rápido e intuitivo, o outro lento e mais racional. Ofereceu conselhos para tomar melhores decisões, começando com: “Reconheça os sinais de que você está em um campo minado cognitivo.”
Daniel Kahneman nasceu em 5 de março de 1934, em Tel Aviv, onde sua mãe estava visitando parentes. A família morava na França, tendo emigrado de lá da Lituânia. Seu pai, um químico judeu, foi preso por causa de sua religião durante a Segunda Guerra Mundial, sendo depois libertado. Após a guerra, a família mudou-se para a Palestina.
Kahneman recebeu um diploma de bacharel em psicologia pela Universidade Hebraica de Jerusalém em 1954. Mais tarde naquele ano, ele se juntou às Forças de Defesa de Israel, onde foi designado para o ramo de psicologia e encarregado de avaliar recrutas. O sistema que ele desenvolveu foi usado por décadas, ele escreveu em sua autobiografia do Prêmio Nobel.
Ele recebeu um Ph.D. da Universidade da Califórnia em Berkeley em 1961 e retornou à Universidade Hebraica para ensinar no departamento de psicologia. Em 1969, ele conheceu Tversky, que se tornou seu colaborador por mais de uma década em seu trabalho vencedor do Prêmio Nobel.
“Amos e eu compartilhamos o espanto de possuir juntos uma gansa que podia pôr ovos de ouro - uma mente conjunta que era melhor do que nossas mentes separadas”, escreveu Kahneman. “Provavelmente compartilhei mais da metade das risadas da minha vida com Amos.”
O jogo do ultimato
A colaboração entre eles produziu artigos, livros e experimentos inovadores como o jogo do ultimato, no qual uma pessoa recebe dinheiro com a condição de compartilhá-lo com uma segunda pessoa. Tipicamente, a segunda pessoa não aceitará menos do que uma parcela de 20% ou 30%, mesmo que fosse racional aceitar qualquer quantia.
A parceria próxima de décadas entre Kahneman e Tversky se tornou mais conhecida com a publicação em 2016 de “O Projeto Desfazer” (”The Undoing Project”), do premiado autor Michael Lewis.
Kahneman teve cargos na Universidade da Colúmbia Britânica, em Vancouver, e em Berkeley. Em 1993, mudou-se para a Universidade de Princeton, em Nova Jersey, onde foi professor de psicologia e também lecionou na Escola de Política Pública e Assuntos Internacionais Woodrow Wilson.
Nos últimos anos, ele estudou a felicidade - mais tecnicamente, a hedônica: coisas que tornam as experiências agradáveis ou desagradáveis, e como medir isso. Uma descoberta notável foi que as pessoas ricas raramente eram mais felizes do que aquelas com rendas mais baixas, desafiando a ideia de que dinheiro compra felicidade.
Kahneman dividiu o Prêmio Nobel de 2002 com Vernon Smith, outro economista experimental.
Kahneman e sua esposa, Irah Kahn, tiveram dois filhos: Michael e Lenore. O casal se divorciou e ele mais tarde se casou com a psicóloga Anne Treisman, que faleceu em 2018.
For months, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied he was planning to invade Ukraine. Even as his forces massed on the border in ever-greater numbers, the Kremlin portrayed it as standard exercises.
Just a week before he unleashed his war, Russia was still saying no conflict was coming.
And when he launched his forces in the early hours of Feb. 24, 2022, Putin couldn’t bring himself to use the word “war,” describing it as a mere “special military operation” to support the desires of separatists in Ukraine’s east to be part of Russia. That’s even as his troops and tanks came into Ukraine from the north and marched toward the capital, Kyiv. And as rockets fell on multiple cities across the country.
Despite all the buildup, for many in Ukraine the war came as a shock. Millions jumped in their cars or rushed to railway stations. A year later, many thousands of Ukrainians remain refugees. Thousands of civilians have been killed and driven from their homes by rocket strikes, and the economy is largely kept afloat by outside aid.
But Putin has also failed to achieve his goals. Ukraine has not fallen. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did not flee; instead, he took his background in show business and became the front-facing cheerleader of his people for the world.
Russia has lost a good slice of the territory it took in the early weeks of fighting. The war is largely bogged down in the east, with both sides running low on weapons and other supplies.
Ukraine’s allies have sent in extraordinary levels of military support. That includes ever-increasingly offensive weapons, with advanced battle tanks the latest to be promised.
Ukrainian soldiers atop an abandoned Russian tank near Kharkiv. Photographer: Yasuyoshi Chiba/Getty Images
And yet the longer that Russia’s forces can hold ground in the east, the harder they will be to dislodge. Ukraine’s allies are strong in their support but as the war drags on, unity may start to fray.
Having cracked down on dissent at home, Putin is having some success in pivoting his rhetoric increasingly to cast Russia as under fundamental attack from the West — particularly the US and European nations.
Big nations like China and India have declined to sign up to the massive sanctions regime on Moscow. Russia’s economy has not collapsed. There are increasing signs that nations in the so-called “Global South” want the war simply to end either way.
The challenge in any war that goes into its second year is sustaining momentum. Time may, unfortunately for Ukraine’s people, end up on Russia’s side. — Rosalind Mathieson
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched Europe’s biggest military assault since World War II with his Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, killing thousands of people, driving millions more from their homes, shaking the post-Cold War geopolitical order and roiling global markets.
After initially losing territory, Ukraine’s over-matched military unexpectedly fought Russian forces to a standstill in the north, prompting the Kremlin to refocus its attack on the eastern Donbas region. Ukraine has now called on its allies to help it re-arm and prepare for what may stretch into a months- or years-long war.
Here’s a timeline of the main events so far.
Feb. 24
Russia launches its attack from three directions: Belarus in the north, the Donbas region in the east, and from Crimea, which Putin seized in 2014, in the south. The U.S. and European Union announce sanctions targeting Russia’s financial sector, technology imports and oligarchs. Russian stocks and the ruble plunge.
CCTV footage shows Russian military vehicles passing the Armyansk checkpoint on the Ukraine-Crimea border on Feb. 24.
Source: Ukrainian Border Service
Feb. 25
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejects calls to flee Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, says his forces are fighting back, and calls for international support and for weapons. The EU imposes sanctions on Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Zelenskiy hosts a news conference in Kyiv on March 3.
Photographer: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images
Feb. 27
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans for a massive boost in defense spending in a historic policy shift. Germany will channel 100 billion euros to modernize the military and meet the NATO spending target of 2% of gross domestic product on defense by 2024.
Feb. 28
Ukraine applies for EU membership. Accession to the bloc is a long and arduous process, which requires the candidate to adopt established EU law and enact reforms, including to its judicial and economic systems. The move also requires the unanimous approval of all EU members.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen applauds Zelenskiy during a video address on March 1.
Source: European Commission
March 1
Russian forces begin the siege of Mariupol, a port city with about 450,000 residents on the Sea of Azov.
March 2
The EU excludes seven Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system and suspends broadcasting by media outlets Russia Today and Sputnik. Officials carve up the EU units of Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank, after sanctions prompt a run on deposits.
A bright flaring object lands at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Enerhodar, on March 4.
Source: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
March 4
Russian forces occupy the site of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, in an attack that Ukrainian officials say ignited a fire and Lithuania’s president calls “nuclear terrorism.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg rejects calls from Zelenskiy to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, saying it would risk “a full-fledged war in Europe.” The number of refugees displaced inside and outside Ukraine surpasses a million.
A Ukrainian woman carries a child across the border to Siret, Romania, in March.
Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg
March 8
The U.K. says it will ban all imports of Russian oil, a measure taken in concert with the U.S.
Sergei Lavrov, second left, and Dmytro Kuleba, second right, hold face-to-face talks in Antalya, Turkey, on March 10.
Photographer: Cem Ozdel/Anadolu via Getty Images
March 10
The first high-level talks between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russia’s Lavrov fail to make progress, with Kuleba saying the Kremlin is demanding that Kyiv surrender. A six-ton unmanned, Soviet-made reconnaissance drone streaks across three NATO countries from Ukraine to crash in the Croatian capital Zagreb, raising awkward questionsabout the alliance’s readiness.
The U.K. also freezes the assets of Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich as the EU approves sanctions against more wealthy Russians and more than 140 Russian lawmakers. The ruble hits a record low of almost 122 per dollar as economists predict a steep recession in the Russian economy.
A wounded man at a hospital near the Yavoriv military complex following a Russian air strike, on March 13.
Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
March 13
Russian missiles hit a Ukrainian military training facility that had been used by NATO forces before the invasion. The attack near the western city of Lviv close to the Polish frontier killed 35 and wounded 134, and raised concern the war could spill over Ukraine’s borders.
Emergency services and volunteers carry an injured pregnant woman from a maternity hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 9.
Photographer: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo
March 15
Russian troops take over the largest hospital in Mariupol, taking more than 400 patients and medical staff hostage after targeting it with air strikes. That followed a March 9 strike on a children’s hospital that Ukrainian officials said killed pregnant women and newborns. The EU bans the sale to Russia of luxury goods and the purchase of many Russian steel and iron products, as well as targeting more oligarchs. Zelenskiy reiterates that Ukraine won’t push for NATO membership.
About 300 people are killed by a Russian air strikeon the Mariupol Drama Theater, according to Ukrainian authorities. It was marked by the word “CHILDREN” in huge white letters to ward against an attack.
The destroyed Mariupol Drama Theater.
Photographer: Alexei Alexandrov/AP Photo
March 18
Fears of a bond default by Russia ease after $117 million in interest payments start to reach international investors.
March 24
Russian bond, ruble and stocks trading resumesimultaneously for the first time in nearly a month, even as the Kremlin maintains strict capital controls on the currency.
About 2.3 million barrels a day of Russian crude heads west through a network of pipelines and ports
Sources: Bloomberg; AW Consulting
March 25
Germany’s government announces plans to stopalmost all Russian oil imports this year and broadly wean itself off of the country’s gas by mid-2024. Berlin repeats that Germany won’t back an immediate embargo on Russian energy, citing the cost to business and households and resisting pressure from Ukrainian officials who say fossil fuel purchases are helping fund Putin’s war.
A destroyed Russian tank in Lukianivka, Kyiv.
Photographer: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
March 29
After Ukrainian forces halt Russia’s advance toward Kyiv, inflicting thousands of casualties and destroying hundreds of aircraft, armored vehicles, and other weapons, the Kremlin says it will sharply cut military operations near the capital and the northern city of Chernihiv. In talks in Turkey, a Ukrainian negotiator said his country is seeking international security guarantees for territory that doesn’t include the occupied areas of Donbas and Crimea.
April 1
Russia pulls back its forces from the decommissioned nuclear power plant in Chernobyland accuses Ukraine of raising radiation exposure risks. Kyiv blames Russia, and Ukraine’s state power company says Moscow’s forces received “significant doses” of radiation after digging trenches at the highly contaminated site.
The Chernobyl nuclear power plant after Russia withdrew its forces from the area, on April 5.
Photographer: Oleksandr Ratushniak/AP Photo
April 3
Evidence of mass killings and other atrocities surfaces after Russian troops withdraw from Bucha and other areas around Kyiv. The EU condemns what it says may be war crimes and begins work on new sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden says Putin could face trial at an international tribunal and vows additional penalties as well. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied targeting civilians and has blamed the West for staging the attacks, without providing strong evidence for its claims.
Bodies retrieved by municipal workers at a cemetery in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 7.
Photographer: Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo
April 6
The U.S., EU and Group of Seven coordinate on new sanctions on Russia, including a U.S. ban on investment and an EU ban on coal imports.
Despite the penalties, the ruble returns to levels from before the invasion, propped up by capital controls and incoming hard-currency income from energy exports. Russia also slips closer to technical default after foreign banks declined to process about $650 million of dollar payments on its bonds.
A slide is shared during Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s address to the UN Security Council on April 5.
Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
April 7
The United Nations General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council over its conduct in Ukraine.
April 8
At least 52 people were killed and more than 100 wounded when at least one Russian cruise missile carrying cluster munitions hit the main train station in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, Ukrainian officials said. The attack on the main hub to evacuate civilians from an expected Russian offensive in Donbas drew condemnation from Western officials and calls for tighter sanctions.
Covered bodies following a Russian rocket attack in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on April 8.
Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
April 10
Ukraine is pursuing about 5,600 cases of war crimes linked to Russia’s invasion, Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova says, calling Putin “the main war criminal of the 21st century.” Around this time Russia appoints General Alexander Dvornikov, who oversaw Moscow’s forces in Syria in 2015 and 2016, as top commander for the war. He led the southern prong of the invasion, which had more success than the northern thrust, and will now manage the Kremlin’s shift of focus to the eastern Donbas region.
April 12
Putin characterizes peace talks with Ukraine as “at a dead end,” says the invasion is proceeding “according to plan” and vows to continue, as Kyiv accuses Moscow of sabotaging peace talks.
Biden accuses Putin for the first time of committing “genocide” in Ukraine. Russian forces also face hard-to-prove allegations that they used a poisonous substance in the besieged city of Mariupol which, if confirmed as a chemical weapon, could further escalate the war. Finland starts the process expected to lead to a bid for it to join NATO, while the U.S. and EU separately agree to pay for additional arms for Ukraine worth more than a combined $1.3 billion, including heavy weapons.
China’s exports to Russia slumped in March, even as shipments to other nations grew quickly, indicating Chinese companies are likely being cautious about trading with Russia.
April 14
Russia threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in and around the Baltic Sea if Finland and Sweden join NATO. Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva, is reported damaged in an incident attributed by Russia to exploding onboard ammunition and by a Ukrainian official to a rocket attack.
The Russian missile cruiser Moskva entering Sevastopol bay on Sept. 10, 2008.
Photographer: Vasily Batanov/AFP/Getty Images
— With assistance by Andra Timu and Patricia Suzara
