A relevancia persistente da Primeira Guerra Mundial - Der Spiegel

Disaster Centennial: The Disturbing Relevance of World War I

By Klaus Wiegrefe

Der Spiegel, January 9, 2014

Getty Images

It has now been 100 years since the outbreak of World War I, but the European catastrophe remains relevant today. As the Continent looks back this year, old wounds could once again be rubbed raw.

Joachim Gauck, the 11th president of the Federal Republic of Germany, executes his duties in a palace built for the Hohenzollern dynasty. But almost all memories of Prussian glory have been eliminated from Bellevue Palace in Berlin, where there is no pomp and there are no uniforms and few flags. The second door on the left in the entrance hall leads into a parlor where Gauck receives visitors.

ANZEIGE

In the so-called official room, there are busts of poet Heinrich von Kleist and Social Democrat Friedrich Ebert, the first German president after Kaiser Wilhelm II fled the country into exile, on a shelf behind the desk. There are two paintings on the wall: an Italian landscape by a German painter, and a view of Dresden by Canaletto, the Italian painter.Gauck likes the symbolism. Nations and their people often view both the world and the past from different perspectives. The president says that he doesn't find this disconcerting, because he is aware of the reasons. In 2014, the year of the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War I, the eyes of the world will be focused on Germany's head of state. It will be the biggest historical event to date in the 21st century.
And Gauck represents the losers.
More than 60 million soldiers from five continents participated in that orgy of violence. Almost one in six men died, and millions returned home with injuries or missing body parts -- noses, jaws, arms. Countries like France, Belgium and the United Kingdom are planning international memorial events, wreath-laying ceremonies, concerts and exhibits, as are faraway nations like New Zealand and Australia, which formed their identities during the war.

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Poles, citizens of the Baltic countries, Czechs and Slovaks will also commemorate the years between 1914 and 1918, because they emerged as sovereign nations from the murderous conflict between the Entente and the Central Powers.
Unthinkable in Germany
In the coming months, World War I will become a mega issue in the public culture of commemoration. The international book market will present about 150 titles in Germany alone, and twice as many in France -- probably a world record for a historic subject. The story of a generation that has long passed on will be retold. New questions will be asked and new debates will unfold. British Prime Minister David Cameron is even making funds available to enable all children attending Britain's government-run schools to visit the battlefields of the Western Front.
A response of this nature would be unthinkable in pacifist Germany.
But Western Europeans paid a higher death toll in World War I than in any other war in their history, which is why they call it "The Great War" or "La Grande Guerre." Twice as many Britons, three times as many Belgians and four times as many Frenchmen died on the Maas and the Somme than in all of World War II. That's one of the reasons, says Gauck in his office in the Hohenzollern palace, why he could imagine "a German commemoration of World War I as merely a sign of respect for the suffering of those we were fighting at the time."
The "Great War" was not only particularly bloody, but it also ushered in a new era of warfare, involving tanks, aircraft and even chemical weapons. Its outcome would shape the course of history for years to come, even for an entire century in some regions.
In the coming weeks, SPIEGEL will describe the consequences of World War I that continue to affect us today: the emergence of the United States as the world's policeman, France's unique view of Germany, the ethnic hostilities in the Balkans and the arbitrary drawing of borders in the Middle East, consequences that continue to burden and impede the peaceful coexistence of nations to this day.
Several summit meetings are scheduled for the 2014 political calendar, some with and some without Gauck. Queen Elizabeth II will receive the leaders of Commonwealth countries in Glasgow Cathedral. Australia, New Zealand, Poland and Slovenia are also planning meetings of the presidents or prime ministers of all or selected countries involved in World War I.
'A Different Nation Today'
August 3 is at the top of Gauck's list. On that day, he and French President François Hollande will commemorate the war dead at Hartmannswillerkopf, a peak in the Alsace region that was bitterly contested by the Germans and the French in the war. The German president is also among the more than 50 heads of state of all countries involved in World War I who will attend a ceremony at the fortress of Liège hosted by Belgium's King Philippe. Gauck, a former citizen of East Germany, sees himself as "the German who represents a different nation today, and who remembers the various horrors that are associated with the German state."
The 73-year-old president hopes that the series of commemorative events will remind Europeans how far European integration has come since 1945. Gauck notes that the "absolute focus on national interests" à la 1914/1918 did not led to happy times for any of the wartime enemies.
But he knows that the memory of the horrors of a war doesn't just reconcile former enemies but can also tear open wounds that had become scarred over. In this respect, the centenary of World War I comes at an unfavorable time. Many European countries are seeing a surge of nationalist movements and of anti-German sentiment prior to elections to the European Parliament in May 2014.
In a recent poll, 88 percent of Spanish, 82 percent of Italian and 56 percent of French respondents said that Germany has too much influence in the European Union. Some even likened today's Germany to the realm of the blustering Kaiser Wilhelm II.
Last August, a British journalist emerged from a conversation with the press attaché at the German Embassy in London with the impression that Berlin, in the interest of promoting reconciliation, wanted to take part in commemorative ceremony in neighboring countries. This led to an outcry in the British press, which claimed that the Germans were trying to prevent the British from celebrating their victory in World War I.
Source of Apprehension
Such episodes are a source of apprehension for Gauck. "One can only hope that the voice of the enlightened is stronger today than it was in the period between the two wars."
And if it isn't? "Europe is too peaceful for me to consider the possibility of wartime scenarios once again. Nevertheless, we saw in the Balkans that archaic mechanisms of hate can take hold once again in the middle of a peaceful decade," Gauck warns.

Such "yes, but" scenarios on World War I are often mentioned. In the era of NATO and integrated armed forces, hardly anyone can imagine a war between Europeans. Still, it is possible to sow discord in other ways in the 21st century. Today's equivalent of the mobilization of armed forces in the past could be the threat to send a country like Greece into bankruptcy unless its citizens comply with the demands of European finance ministers. Historians of different stripes note with concern that the course of events in 1914 are not that different from what is happening in Europe today.Even a century ago, the world was globalized after a fashion. Intercontinental trade was booming, and export quotas were higher than they would be until the era of former Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Germans wore jackets made of Indian cotton and drank coffee from Central America. They worked as barbers in London, bakers in St. Petersburg and maids in Paris, while Poles slaved away in Germany's industrial Ruhr region.
Those who could afford it, traveled around Europe, without requiring a passport. Professors corresponded with their counterparts in Oxford or at the Sorbonne, in English and French. The ruling aristocratic families were related to one another. In fact, Kaiser Wilhelm II, Britain's King George V and Czar Nikolai II were cousins. They called each other Willy, Nicky and George and saw each other at family events, including the wedding of the Kaiser's daughter in Berlin in 1913.

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• Part 1: The Disturbing Relevance of World War I
• Part 2: A Debate over the Beginnings
• Part 3: The Great Plunge
• Part 4: The Great Turning Point
• Part 5: Celebrating Life

Aus Brasilien: os protestos brasileiros no Der Spiegel

Corruption and Graft: Brazil Rushes Headlong into Popular Revolt

By Matthias Matussek in Rio de Janeiro

Felipe Dana / AP / DPA

Brazil has experienced an economic awakening in recent years, but democracy has had to race to catch up. With political corruption widespread, protests have spread across the country, exposing an enraged middle class.

The Brazilian democracy was born in the days when Brazilian football was dying. It makes for a tempting lead, but it's only half true. The Seleção, Brazil's national team, actually played better than expected in the Confederation Cup, a dress rehearsal for the World Cup. But Brazilian football also has an easier time of it than democracy. It has rules it has to comply with, and the results are clear. Democracy, on the other hand, is an endless series of trial-and-error, and the rules are constantly changing.

One rule stands out above all others at the moment in Leblon-Ipanema, the most expensive piece of real estate in Rio de Janeiro if not in all of Brazil. Protesters have set up their tents in front of the governor's mansion and they are being asked to stick to the allotted speaking time, a Brazilian version of the Occupy movement. Three minutes, says Bruno, who runs the stopwatch. But then he promptly ignores it.

Over the cliffs, at the end of the bay, the lights of Favela Vidigal are scattered like stardust and a soft breeze is blowing in from the sea. The pungent smell of churrasco wafts over from a food stand. But in front of the tents, people are deeply engaged in heated debates -- just as they are across the country. Brazil has awakened, and the people are demanding to be heard.

In this particular case, the people consist of a few art students, a handful of housewives and some retirees. Luiza, for example, is a jazz singer who lives in the nouveau-riche Barra neighborhood, Bárbara writes poetry and her parents are professors, and Jair, a Rasta from Bahia, swears he will "die for the cause." Everyone applauds enthusiastically, and yet no one knows yet what exactly they are demanding. Formulating those demands is the objective of this group, which they call "Aquárius."

Everyone is given a chance. Young fireman Álvaro, for example, was confined for a few days during the protests, which began in earnest in mid-June, to the Bangu 1 maximum-security prison along with 13 other firefighters. He is demanding to be rehired. He also wants better pay and training for the military police.

'You Can't Educate All of Humanity'

What? The others are astonished. Álvaro explains his remark, saying that better education makes for better people.

"But you can't educate all of humanity. That would take years," Sylvia, a housewife, interjects.

There is a heated argument before the group continues to the next item. Rodrigo says that something ought to be done about the recurring floods in the interior. Lúcio wants the homeless to be allowed to return to the empty buildings from which they were expelled. Retiree Rentao is mainly interested in eating bananas and takes a third while old Lourdes from Vidigal wants her house to be repaired, because the neighbor damaged an exterior wall during a renovation project.

Most of all, though, they want the governor to finally explain why the government is spending so much money to renovate Maracanã Stadium. Officials had initially promised that not a single real of taxpayer money would be spent. By now, though, the government has pumped hundreds of millions into the project.

As the grievances add up, one thing becomes exceedingly clear: Democracy is difficult. But the people gathered do agree on one thing: Football is the opium of the people, a sign of immaturity. "If the Seleção stops by in their bus, don't allow yourselves to be distracted," says Bruno sarcastically.

It is not without irony that the popular uprising is taking advantage of a Brazilian football festival. Certainly it also has something to do with the arrogance of FIFA officials, who enjoy themselves around the shimmering pool at the Copacabana Palace. It is enough to remind one of everything that is bad about football: corruption, waste and cynicism.

Vast and Angry

But spending billions for stadiums that no one needs, just to make Brazil look good? Equally questionable is the construction of a stadium in Manaus, deep in the Amazon rain forest, a city without a first-division football club and a place where it is so hot that asphalt melts. The administration of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva decided that almost every Brazilian state should have its own stadium, and the government provided generous funding for the effort -- instead of spending the money on schools, roads and hospitals.

The protests this summer, vast and angry, is the Brazilian parallel to the 2011 Arab spring. It is a leaderless movement organized through social networks, which is its strength. It may not be able to shape politics, but it can certainly exert pressure. It can mobilize the street.

It began in São Paulo on June 6 with a march of only 500 people protesting against an increase in bus fares. Since then, however, it has grown into a conflagration of discontent. On June 17, 200,000 people protested in Rio de Janeiro, Belém and about 20 other cities, and by June 20 some 1.4 million protesters had taken to the streets in more than 120 cities. Protesters danced on the roof of the congress building in the capital Brasília, creating images that have since been broadcast around the world. They are the tour dates of a popular uprising that newspapers are presenting as proudly as they do the victories of the Seleção. The people are agitated, and the political world is afraid.

President Dilma Rousseff has felt that ire directly; she was booed during the opening of the Confed Cup in mid-June and her approval rating has plunged by 27 percentage points. In a hastily arranged televised address, she promised reforms and held out the prospect of a referendum. The bus fare increases were reversed, as was a scandalous draft law that would have given corrupt lawmakers immunity from prosecution. Some €19 billion ($26 billion) in new funding for public transportation was suddenly approved. And now the first corrupt lawmaker, who had managed to delay his trial by three years, has been arrested. The government has been literally tripping over itself recently in its hurry to answer to the people.

Out of Touch

On the other hand, almost 200 members of the National Congress are under investigation. One lawmaker, who is accused of murder, allegedly dismembered his political rival with a chainsaw. Another moved $10 million earmarked for a road construction project to an overseas bank account. A third politician is thought to have ordered the abduction of three priests who had campaigned on behalf of the landless.

Today the Congress is probably the most despised institution in Brazil. The magazine Veja depicts it perched on the edge of a cliff, with lawmakers who look like rats falling into the abyss while demonstrators force their way into the building from the other side. "Brazil has perhaps never before been under the command of people who were quite as arrogant as Lula, Dilma Rousseff and the barons of the PT," writes Veja, in reference to Rousseff's party, the Partido dos Trabalhadores, or "Workers' Party."

In fact, the PT seems to be completely out of touch with reality. The bloated government bureaucracy, with its 39 ministries, consumes €100 billion a year. Rousseff spends €214 each time she visits the hairdresser. Why, people want to know? Has her hair turned to gold since she became president?

At a posh dinner party in the hills of the Jardim Botânico, constitutional law expert Carlos Bolonha bends over his crystal glass and explains how unfeasible the referendum announced by Rousseff is -- and how it would be tantamount to a top-down coup d'état. Venezuela's former left-wing populist president, Hugo Chavez, often used referendums to solidify his power.

These are hard times for the PT. It is in a glass house and cannot be throwing stones. Although the left, the traditional voice of the people, is in power, this traditional alliance has been shattered and trust gambled away since the Lula administration was involved in a bribery scandal. And trust was always its greatest asset.

Part 2: Returning to Real Life

Now people in the streets are saying that everyone in government is a thief, regardless of his or her party affiliation. Brazilians today are faced with a fundamental breach of trust. A new civil society is defending itself against the very principle of politics, against representation by political parties. They are trying to protect themselves against institutional corruption.
The country's traditional amusements -- football, Samba and Carneval -- are too frivolous for this summer's mood. The dinner-party hostess, a professor, is calling for a modern-day storming of the Bastille. A young businessman is talking about high taxes and the few services that the government provides in return. They all agree that Brazil, a giant and powerful economic engine, has gained momentum in recent years, but that the tracks are rotten, the signal towers are outdated and the personnel is from the era of feudalism.
And it is true. In the gridlocked downtown areas of Rio or São Paulo, cars travel at the speed of horse-drawn carriages, about 18 kilometers per hour (11 mph). Perhaps the country is not going through a revolution, but rather a crisis of modernization.
A doctor with a white beard quotes a saying he saw at a demonstration: "A truly developed country is not one in which the poor have cars, but one in which everyone can use public transportation." As it happens, the overcrowded buses on the torn-up streets of Rio feel like prisoner transports.
The view of the sea from the heights of the coastal road Avenida Niemeyer is achingly beautiful. Volleyball teams are playing on Ipanema Beach below, in front of the Occupy camp. Marcus at the kiosk up here on the avenue is playing the classic song "País Tropical," while an old woman sings along. Is this Brazil disappearing? Is this Brazil suddenly wrong?
Sick to Death of Their Clichés
No. It's just that the patronizing grins that accompanied this aspect of Brazilian folklore in the past have disappeared. Nowadays Brazilians are sick to death of their own clichés.
In Favela Vidigal, a few curves down the road, just across from the Sheraton Hotel where the Seleção is staying, visitors are greeted by an adage, in black on turquoise-colored tiles: "All people are naturally inclined to seek the path to goodness. Everyone is naturally endowed with the same rights." The author is identified as Aristotle.
Pathos and idealism are as much a part of Brazil's sentimental propaganda as its cynical politicians. Such rhetoric is supposed to provide encouragement to those in the slums. There may not be a decent wastewater system, but pure morals -- so goes the message -- are more important.
For several years, however, there has been a different antidote to the misery. The UPP, or neighborhood police. They are responsible for security on what was once one of the most violent hills in Rio. Since the elite troops of the BOPE ended the reign of "Comando Vermelho" and drove out the drug bosses, the hill has become appealing to the middle class. Speculators are buying up property in an area where the views are simply irresistible.
Some graffiti from the old days can still be seen on a wall, depicting one of the drug bosses as a capitalist with a cigar. Now the boss is in prison -- and the boys playing with a couple of fighting dog puppies on the walled football pitch have a low opinion of the police officers who patrol the area with their assault rifles.
The Culture of Jeitinho
"Maybe it's become safer for the tourists and the speculators, but nothing has changed for us," says Felipe, who is dabbing at a bloody nose one of the dogs just gave him. The bosses are gone, says Felipe, but it's still easier to get drugs than bread. Okay, he says, it has become quieter. In the past, snitches were burned to death using car tires. But aside from that?
UPP police officers are frequently rotated so as to avoid corruption. But Felipe doesn't believe the strategy works. Everything will go back to the way it was after the World Cup, he says. Theft isn't just a fact of life at the Congress in Brasília. Everyone takes part in "jeitinho," or the culture of official corruption, and everyone takes his cut.
Marco Túlio Zanini, a young man with a business degree, took a closer look at the BOPE units. In a highly regarded study, he concluded that the special forces troops, -- heavily armed soldiers with a crest consisting of pistols crossed in front of a skull -- are inspired by ideals. "They don't do their jobs for money, they see themselves as missionaries," he says. Devotion, self-sacrifice, esprit de corps. Perhaps it's the only government institution of which that can be said -- yet another indication as to just how far the situation in Brazil has deteriorated.
Still, BOPE has cleaned up in the city under the leadership of Rio's security chief José Mariano Beltrame, an outsider who owed nothing to nobody. Beltrame is clean, and so are his men, says Zanini.
Zanini focuses on the subject of trust, in both business and politics. The last article he published was called "Leadership through Values." But he believes that values have been compromised in recent years as everybody has tried to benefit from the country's economic upturn. And he believes that Lula's leftist party of economic miracles, PT, is to blame.
Exercises in Democratic Awareness
"One can only hope that the protests will continue, because they are an expression of civil society," says Zanini -- important exercises in democratic awareness.
The demonstrations are continuing. Some 6,000 military police gathered to provide security for the Confed Cup final in front of the Maracanã Stadium in early July. There was concern that a few militants would be among the protesters. But the middle class, in particular, has been showing, with its largely peaceful protests, that it wants more than refrigerators and cars. Instead, it wants the rights of a civil society, which include public services in return for taxes paid: a decent healthcare system, roads, public transportation and schools.
Ironically, it was the governing Workers' Party that believed stimulating consumption would be enough. But now the economic miracle is waning. According to the daily newspaper O Globo, government debt is higher than it's been in 18 years, Petrobas, the largely state-owned oil company, is practically bankrupt, and inflation is rising. The people are afraid.
But nothing has moved the public in recent years as much as the "Mensalão" scandal, a criminal operation that, together with the governing PT and government-owned businesses, had bribed several lawmakers to push large, lucrative projects through the Congress.
In a fiery speech, Joaquim Barbosa, appointed to the country's highest court by Lula, demanded that it was time to clean out the pigsty. Barbosa has been celebrated as a hero since then, as someone who stands for the values of democracy. People are saying that he would be elected immediately if he ran for office. By now, 74 percent of Brazilians want those behind the bribery scandal go to prison immediately.
Who Wins?
No one from the Occupy tents in Ipanema watched as the Seleção ran onto the pitch in Maracanã Stadium for the finale. Only Jair, the Rasta who wanted to die for his cause, suddenly defected.
There are only two kiosks with TV sets on the Copacabana. At the "Sindicato," on the other hand, a churrascaria on the esplanade, a few dozen fans have gathered. They have hardly had a chance to sit down when Fred, the country's newest football hero, pushes his way into the Spanish team's penalty area and scores an unlikely goal while lying on the grass. Neymar's second goal is spectacular, and the cheering gets louder. The Brazilians are playing well, a lean, imaginative and fast game. They have put the football world on notice that they are back. Once the 3:0 win is complete, the audience is on its feet, cheering frenetically. Football still works in Brazil.
But real life returned as soon as the game has ended.
This is especially true of the endless process of Brazilian democracy. The country's labor unions, which include most PT members, organized yet another day of strikes and marches on Thursday. Brazil's Workers' Party is mobilizing against itself at the moment, so as to resume its position of leadership.
All that remains is to see who wins.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

Fim da bonanca brasileira? Alemanha examina o Brasil (Der Spiegel)

The End of Brazil's Boom: Inflation and Corruption Fuel Revolt

By Jens Gluesing

Der Spiegel, June 24, 2013

AP/dpa

Brazil's middle class is outraged over corruption and the feeling that none of the country's new prosperity is trickling down to them. With the economy stagnating, the country urgently needs reforms.

The Hotel Glória was once Brazil's finest establishment. Heads of state stayed in the magnificent building when Rio de Janeiro was still the capital. But the hotel lost its luster and its high-class clientele. Five years ago, a multibillionaire bought the hotel and vowed to bring back the old glory.
Eike Batista, who was Brazil's richest man at the time, had big plans: He wanted to build a luxury resort, complete with a helipad and marina. He hired star architects and the building was gutted down to its foundation walls. The idea was to reopen the hotel in time for next year's World Cup soccer championship. But now the cranes are standing still and most of the workers have been laid off. The wind blows through the windows and a homeless man is sleeping under an awning. The hotel is for sale. The multibillionaire has run out of money.The downfall of the Batista empire symbolizes the end of the economic boom -- and the multibillionaire embodies everything that hundreds of thousands of Brazilians, primarily from the middle class, are protesting against: nepotism, delusions of grandeur and the fabulous wealth of a select few. It started with demonstrations against raising the bus fare by 20 centavos (9 US cents), but rapidly became a more general uproar over the issue of who should benefit from Brazil's riches and what is more important -- new hospitals or glittering sports stadiums.
Batista enjoyed close ties with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who extolled him as a model for the new Brazil. He received massive loans from the state, and when his son hit and killed a cyclist with his sports car, expensive lawyers managed to keep the young man from serving a prison sentence. A consortium that included Batista was awarded the contract to manage the rebuilt Maracanã Stadium in Rio. The renovation of the Hotel Glória is also financed with a loan from the state development bank. And Brazil's state-owned Petrobras has signed a deal to make Batista's port facilities more profitable.
The entrepreneur became the seventh richest man in the world in 2012, with a net worth of $30 billion ($23 billion). Then everything collapsed: Stock prices have plummeted in his empire of oil, mining and energy companies. His fortune has melted away to nearly one-third of its former size. He has slipped to 100th place in Forbes magazine's ranking of the world's richest people. Last week alone one of his companies lost 40 percent of its stock market value.
Batista also attracted investors with the prospect of huge oil reserves off Brazil's coast and promised them an increase in infrastructure contracts. But the wells have not supplied as much oil as hoped and many predictions have not materialized. Batista's "X" empire, as he likes to call his consortium, has turned out to be nothing but a pipe dream.
Cultural Impunity
Brazil has always been a permissive society. Those who are rich are rarely held accountable for their crimes. Politicians invoke their parliamentary immunity and there are plenty of kleptocrats in the country's town halls, governor's palaces and the National Congress, the legislative body of Brazil's federal government. According to a cynical Brazilian saying, "tudo acaba em samba" -- everything ends in a samba. For decades, Brazil's rich and powerful have relied on this culture of impunity.
It is also the fury over this mentality that is fueling the wave of protests rolling across the country. But the government has apparently failed to grasp this new development. It has reacted as usual: First, it tried to violently suppress the protests, then it tried to co-opt the protesters. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff praised the demonstrators, and the mayors of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro rescinded the bus fare hike.
The protests are rocking the country at a critical moment. The Brazilian economy is starting to falter. Last year, it only grew by 0.9 percent, making Brazil the laggard among the emerging economies known as the BRICS -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Will the boom of the Lula years now be followed by the Brazilian blues? "The optimism was exaggerated, as is the pessimism," says Ilan Goldfajn, chief economist at Brazil's largest bank, Itaú Unibanco. Rating agencies are predicting economic growth of 2.5 percent for this year. Rousseff is trying to fuel consumption in a bid to kickstart the economy again. She has lowered interest rates, but this approach hasn't been successful. Many Brazilians are deeply in debt. They have purchased homes and cars on credit, and now they have to save money.
A Jump in Inflation
Furthermore, lowering interest rates has led to a rise in inflation, with significant price increases primarily for food and services. For a while, tomatoes were so prohibitively expensive that smugglers brought them into the country over the Argentinean border. Although the government has now raised interest rates again, this move will hardly be enough to stop inflation. The decline of the Brazilian real is continuing to fuel price increases, and imports are becoming increasingly expensive.
The jumps in prices evoke memories of the decades in which the country suffered from high inflation. The construction of the capital Brasília and megaprojects launched by the military dictatorship saddled subsequent democratic governments with a huge mountain of debt. By the mid-1980s, prices had exploded. The Brazilian central bank has introduced five new currencies since then. It wasn't until 1994 that then-Finance Minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso managed to stabilize the economy with a combination of austerity measures and currency reform.
In 2002, when the former labor leader Lula was elected, many investors pulled out their money. They were afraid that Lula would abandon the stability policy of his predecessor. But the left-wing politician surprised the financial world, and there were no socialist experiments. At the same time, there was a rise in global prices for fuel and food, Brazil's main exports. Billions in investments flowed into the country and the real became a highly overvalued currency.
Reforms Mired in Bureaucracy
The government introduced generous social programs for the poor, allowing 20 million Brazilians to climb into the middle class. During his second term in office, though, Lula threw open state coffers to launch megaprojects and grant loans to the poor -- all of which helped the campaign of his successor Rousseff, who used this political capital to win the 2010 presidential election.
Economic experts hoped that Rousseff would return to an orthodox financial policy. Instead, she lowered interest rates and intervened in monetary policy. She has expanded state capitalism in the country and founded a number of new state-owned companies. Meanwhile, important structural reforms have become mired in government bureaucracy. The road network is dilapidated, the ports are run by corrupt trade unions and efforts to expand the airports have bogged down. Even the exploitation of deep-sea oil reserves has stagnated due to a lack of technology. In 2006, Lula proudly announced that Brazil would achieve self-sufficiency thanks to its crude oil production. Now, gasoline and ethanol have to be imported.
Not much happens without the government in Brazil and, not surprisingly, corruption continues to flourish. The renovation and new construction of sports facilities for the World Cup and the Olympic Games was negotiated with only a handful of large contracting companies, and the projects are billions over budget. This wheeling and dealing between the government and companies is yet another reason why the middle class is up in arms.
'Brazil Costs'
Along with the poor and students, a large number of business people are taking to the streets. Shop owners and cab drivers have spontaneously joined the demonstrations. "There's plenty of money -- we pay enormous amounts of taxes," says Raoni Nery, 27, who joined the protest marches in Rio, "but we don't receive anything in return."

The computer expert runs a small IT company and would like to hire someone to help: "But I can't afford it because social security contributions are too high. Our employment legislation is totally outdated," he says. It takes months to establish a company, and nobody seems to understand the maze of laws and regulations. Anyone who wants to open a business often has to pay bribes to inspectors from the city administration.Large companies write off special expenses for transport, bureaucracy and corruption as "custo Brasil," meaning "Brazil costs." Ultimately, it's the customers who pay for this.
In view of the upcoming presidential election next year, the government is again opening its coffers. Two weeks ago, President Rousseff announced a special election present: Anyone who has been granted a low-interest state loan for a house can acquire an additional low-cost loan of up to 5,000 reais -- to purchase appliances and furniture.

Translated from the German by Paul Cohen

Ach! Der douce und grosse Dekadence... Frankreich, bien sur - Der Spiegel

Presidentes, estadistas, existem para guiar um país no caminho da prosperidade, geralmente por meio de reformas constantes, se preciso for com algum sacrifício dos acomodados. Se esses líderes se revelam incapazes de fazê-lo, melhor aposentá-los e pensar em lideranças mais consequentes. Acho que é o caso do morno, aborrecido, sonolento François Hollande. Time to retire...

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Bonjour Tristesse: The Economic and Political Decline of France

By Mathieu von Rohr

Der Spiegel, June 05, 2013

France is in the grip of a crisis. As both its economy and European influence weaken, scandal has hobbled its political elite. The country needs drastic overhaul, but President Hollande does nothing but waver and hesitate.
Judging by the imperial magnificence of the Elysee Palace, France has never ceased to be a world power. Rooms with five-meter (16-foot) ceilings, gilded chandeliers, candelabras and elaborate stucco work are guarded by members of the Republican Guard, who parade in front of the palace gates with their plumes of feathers and bayonets.
The man in charge, on the other hand, seems lonely and small in his palace. He is surrounded by court ushers who make sure that glasses and writing sets are perfectly arranged, and when he enters a conference room, they call out grandly "Monsieur le Président de la République!", to give his attendants time to stand up for him.

François Hollande never intended to become a king, but rather a "normal president," as he put it, and now he has to play one nonetheless. He occasionally seems like an actor who has somehow ended up in the wrong play.
Outside, throughout the country, unemployment reaches new highs each month, factories are shut down daily, hundreds of thousands take to the streets to protest gay marriage, and the French are increasingly outraged over a barrage of new political scandals as the country hovers on the cusp of waning global relevance. Yet this roar of dissatisfaction doesn't permeate the walls of Hollande's world. Here, it is quiet, very quiet.
Shortly after moving into his new official residence, Hollande warned his staff that in a palace it is easy to feel protected, and he insisted that he did not want to be "locked in." But that is precisely what is happening, as evidenced by the documentary film "Le Pouvoir" (The Power), which recently debuted in French theaters and whose creators accompanied Hollande during the brutal first eight months of his presidency.
Elite in a Bubble
They paint an image of a likeable man who seems to spend a lot of time rewriting speeches prepared by his staff. As you watch him in the movie, you start to wonder: Does he do all the important things when no one's watching or does he really spends most of his time on the unimportant? However, the main subject of the film is not the president, but rather the reality bubble in the country's top echelons. Not just Hollande, but also most of his cabinet ministers, still reside in Parisian city palaces that predate the French Revolution, and perhaps that's a problem.
A justice minister who spends her days in the Hôtel de Bourvallais on Place Vendôme, next door to the Hotel Ritz, a culture minister who goes to work at the magnificent Palais Royal, a prime minister whose offices are in the grand Hôtel Matignon and a president who resides at the Elysee Palace, they all need a great deal of inner strength to avoid losing their connection to reality. It's a difficult proposition, because Paris's settings of power convey the message that France is big, rich and beautiful.
But the mood hanging over the country is depressed. France is in the midst of the biggest crisis of the Fifth Republic. It feels as if the French model had reached an end stage, not just in terms of the economy, but also in politics and society. A country that long dismissed its problems is going through a painful process of adjustment to reality and, as was the case last week, can now expect to be issued warnings by the European Commission and prompted to implement reforms.
France's plight was initially apparent in the economy, which has been stagnating for five years, because French state capitalism no longer works. But the crisis reaches deeper than that. At issue is a political class that more than three quarters of the population considers corrupt, and a president who, this early in his term, is already more unpopular than any of his predecessors. At issue is a society that is more irreconcilably divided into left and right than in almost any other part of Europe. And, finally, at issue is the identity crisis of a historically dominant nation that struggles with the fact that its neighbor, Germany, now sets the tone on the continent.
The French economy has been in gradual decline for years, without any president or administration having done anything decisive about it. But now, ignoring the problems is no longer an option. The economy hasn't grown in five years and will even contract slightly this year. A record 3.26 million Frenchmen are unemployed, youth unemployment is at 26.5 percent, consumer purchasing power has declined, and consumption, which drives the French economy, is beginning to slow down, as well.
There is a more positive side of the story, which sometimes pales in the face of all the bad news. France is the world's fifth-largest economy, and interest rates for government bonds have been at historic lows for months. The country is far from being on the verge of bankruptcy and cannot be compared with Italy or Spain, and certainly not with Greece. Nevertheless, France is ailing. And looking weak is something the French themselves hate more than anything else.
Consequences of French Decline
This mixture of factors could jeopardize the entire European structure. For one thing, if France continues to decline, more and more responsibility will be shifted to Germany. "Germany cannot carry the euro on its shoulders alone indefinitely," writes Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff. "France needs to become a second anchor of growth and stability."
Another problem is that the European Union is losing its standing in France at a more dramatic pace than in any other EU member state. According to a study by the Pew Research Center, the public approval of the EU in France has declined from 60 to 41 percent in only a year. This might be owed to the uncomfortable fact that Brussels is increasingly treating France as a problem and not as one of Europe's supporting columns, and many French citizens have started to see the terms 'Brussels' and (German Chancellor) 'Angela Merkel' as synonymous.
But is the EU to blame for the France's crisis? Can Europe truly be held responsible for the fact that the government is behind 57 percent of total economic output in France? That government debt has risen to more than 90 percent of the gross domestic product? Is it Germany's fault that, for decades, French administrations have failed to make the country's business environment more competitive? And has anyone in Brussels demanded that a fifth of all workers in France be employed by the government?
France may be ailing, but it still has a lot going for it. It is home to successful major corporations, such as the luxury brand group LVMH, tire manufacturer Michelin and many pharmaceutical companies. The country has an efficient healthcare system, the highest birthrate in Europe and healthier demographics than Germany, fostered by tax breaks for families, the acceptance of working mothers as a fact of life and a corresponding system of full-day childcare.
But the French welfare state costs money, a lot of money. The country has neglected to make decisions on how much its individual achievements are worth, and how certain luxurious aspects of life it has come to appreciate could be modified to conform to not-so-luxurious realities, including the 35-hour workweek, a retirement age of 60 for some workers and unemployment benefits of up to €6,200 ($8,122) a month. As a result, there is a sense of gridlock, and a sour public mood is following on the heels of bad economic news.
Stuck in Past Grandeur?
France has an illustrious past, of which it is justifiably proud, but its historic success also prevents it from clearly recognizing the need for reforms. The omnipotent, bloated central government, which also controls the economy, should have been reformed long ago. The privileges of the Paris political elite are so outdated that they have become intolerable, and many bribery and corruption scandals are undermining an already fragile political legitimacy.
It cannot be accidental that France's leading politicians increasingly refer to their country as the "grande nation." Since the election campaign, President Hollande has hardly missed an opportunity to invoke the nation's greatness. With some dialectical malice, one could see this as evidence that France's greatness is now becoming a relic, but it certainly reflects the self-hypnosis of a nation whose stature is in the process of shrinking.
"Our soldiers demonstrated our role," Hollande said recently in a major press conference at the Elysée Palace, as he praised one of his rare successes, the military operation in Mali. "Namely that of a great nation that can influence the balance of power in the world."
There is an increasingly stark contrast between the feigned grandiosity of the president's appearances and the faintheartedness of his daily actions. The obstructionism and inflexibility that prevail throughout the entire country can only be eliminated through deep-seated renewal. But so far Hollande, who promised "change" in his campaign, has been more conspicuous for his hesitation than his courage.

Since this spring, Hollande has been viewed by most commentators as the nice "Grandpa" in the Elysee Palace, who lacks the gumption to address the country's serious structural problems. The French constitution grants the office of the president more power than is allotted any other leader of the Western world. Besides, his Socialist Party holds significant majorities in the National Assembly, the Senate and even in regional governments.In other words, Hollande could get down to business on any day he chooses. He could reform the country as he wished, if only that were his objective. But no one -- not citizens, not journalists and possibly not even his cabinet ministers -- knows what he wants and if indeed he wants anything at all.
Does he aim to be France's great reformer but lacks the courage to defy the left wing of his party, as a member of the German government believes? Or is it that he clings to his party's old formulas, wants to change as little as possible and is waiting for the day when the recovery happens on its own?

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• Part 1: The Economic and Political Decline of France
• Part 2: Hollande's Mixed Messages
• Part 3: Blame Germany

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• German-French Relations

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• Crisis of Friendship: Split Persists Between Berlin and Paris(05/17/2013)
• Until Elections Do Us Part: A Deep Frost in Franco-German Relations(05/01/2013)
• Sarkozy's Back: Ex-President Takes Aim at Hollande's Policies (04/29/2013)
• World from Berlin: Hollande Has 'Divided France in Two' (04/24/2013)
• Sarkozy Scandal: An 'Unflattering Picture' of French Democracy(03/25/2013)

O maior criminoso da historia diminuido: Hitler como gnomo de jardim (Der Spiegel)

Hitler's Little Helpers: Nazi Garden Gnomes Invade German Town

Visitors to the Bavarian town of Straubing will be startled at the sight of a mass of black gnomes standing in military formation and doing the Hitler salute this week. It is a temporary art installation by a German sculptor who wants to portray the little figures as "symptoms of a political disease."

dpa

One of artist Otmar Hörl's Nazi garden gnomes.

A total of 1,250 gnomes with their little arms outstretched in the Hitler salute will be placed in a Bavarian town square this week as an art installation. Made of black plastic, they will stand to attention in tight military formation on Ludwigsplatz square in the town of Straubing from Oct 15 to 19.
While locals are referring to the art installation as the "Hitler dwarves," their creator, artist Ottmar Hörl, prefers to call his work "Dance With the Devil."

The gnomes, he says, are a "historical societal gesture" and the "the symptom of a political disease."
25 Million Garden Gnomes
Earlier this year Hörl, 59, attracted attention by exhibiting a golden gnome making the Hitler salute in an art gallery in Nuremberg. Someone filed a complaint against him but the public prosecutor's office said it would not press any charges because the 40-centimeter sculpture was clearly meant as satire.
Garden gnomes remain a firm fixture in Teutonic gardens and the gnome population is estimated at 25 million. However, there is a growing trend towards gnomes that make obscene gestures, commit suicide or engage in sexual activity, and courts have ordered figures to be removed if they offend neighbors.
Hörl has a predilection for mass reproductions and once put up 7,000 hare figures that copied Albrecht Dürer's famous hare.

SPIEGEL Staff

O filosofo como farsa: Marx transformado em gnomo de jardim (Der Spiegel)

Philosopher as Farce: Artist Immortalizes Marx as Garden Gnome

By Sebastian Hammelehle

DPA

Ottmar Hörl gained international notoriety in 2009 by designing garden gnomes giving Nazi salutes. Now he hopes to stimulate debate with 500 gnome-like figurines of Karl Marx in Trier, but he might not hit his mark.

Pedestrian shopping areas in Germany are usually filled with people pondering such mundane issues as which nail polish to buy or whether to grab a pretzel. But who says that these bargain hunters couldn't wrangle with more lofty and abstract philosophical questions, such as Marx's critique of capitalism, especially if they come packaged in something as down-to-earth as the good ol' German garden gnome?

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Political artist Ottmar Hörl captured headlines far away from his hometown of Nuremberg in 2009 when he created garden gnomes performing Nazi salutes. And now he's back to making what he hopes will be another controversial statement. In honor of Karl Marx's 195th birthday, Hörl has spread out 500 plastic figurines of the famous thinker in Trier, the western German city near the border with Luxembourg where Marx was born. Each miniature sculpture, which stands less than a meter (3.3 feet) tall, portrays Marx in the exact same pose, but in different shades of red.
A nifty idea, sure. But what could it possibly mean? "I want to inspire pedestrians to think about Karl Marx in a different way," Hörl explains while his installation is being set up next to Trier's historic Roman city gate, Porta Nigra, adding that the German philosopher has often been misinterpreted.
Still, one could say that Hörl himself has fallen pray to this fallacy himself. No matter what we personally think about Marx and his philosophy of history, if he is reduced to the figure of a bearded little chap, the great thinker joins the ranks of other city mascots like the Berlin bear or Hamburg's Hans Hummel. The Marx-gnome may become a popular subject for tourist photos or a favorite for children to climb around on, but it will hardly stir a debate about Marx' ideas -- at least not about anything that goes beyond the simplistic message of Hörl's artwork, which claims that not every shade of red is the same and that Marxism can be interpreted in myriad ways.
The primary insight that Hörl's Marx-gnome communicates is that if Marx is trivialized to the maximum, he hardly even disrupts the consumerist landscape on the shopping mall. Four different shades of red give less food for thought than any nail polish section. Indeed, it would hardly have been possible to ridicule the man who once tried to overcome capitalism more thoroughly.

Falsos verdadeiros: os cadernos de memorias de Hitler - Der Spiegel

Real Fakes

'Hitler Diaries' Reporter Wants Them Back

Der Spiegel, 04/09/2013

In 1983, Stern magazine stunned the world by saying it had found Adolf Hitler's diaries. Unfortunately, they were fake. Now Gerd Heidemann, the reporter who discovered them, wants the diaries back, citing a clause in his original contract.

It has been 30 years since Germany's Stern magazine ran what it thought was the scoop of the century, stunning the world with the claim that it had found Adolf Hitler's diaries. Lots of them, in fact. The reporter who unearthed them, Gerd Heidemann, acquired 62 volumes for 9.3 million deutsche marks ($6.1 million) from Konrad Kujau, an antiques dealer and painter.
What happened next is history. The diaries turned out to have been penned not by Hitler but by Kujau, Stern took years to recover from the embarrassment, Heidemann spent time in jail for embezzlement and Kujua was jailed for fraud.
But now Heidemann wants the diaries back, citing a clause in his original contract with Stern's publisher, Gruner & Jahr, that states that the original manuscripts would be handed back to him 10 years after they had been published.
"If I had the financial means, I would sue the publisher for their release. I can only hope that the publisher will honor the contract," Heidemann told Bild newspaper on Tuesday.
Heidemann could not be reached for comment.
An Amusing Read
Gruner & Jahr said it still has most of the volumes, and that some are on display in a history museum in Bonn and will go on show at Hamburg's police museum, Bild reported.
Heidemann said that if he got the diaries, he would make them available to Germany's national archive.
It is unclear what price the forged diaries could fetch if they were sold. Some of them make for entertaining reading. Kujau's Hitler wrote this passage about his girlfriend Eva Braun, for example:
"I've really got to have a serious talk with Eva. She thinks that a man who leads Germany can take as much time as he wants for private matters." An entry dated June 1935 reads: "Eva now has two dogs, so she won't get bored."
One entry during the 1936 Berlin Olympics reads: "Eva wants to come to the Games in Berlin, have had tickets delivered to her and her girlfriends. Hope my stomach cramps don't return during the Games."

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Related SPIEGEL ONLINE links:

• Göring's List: Should Israel Honor a Leading Nazi's Brother? (03/07/2013)
  http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,887032,00.html
• In Bed with Benito: Sex Diaries Reveal Mussolini's Soft Side (11/26/2009)
  http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,663384,00.html
• Bitter Memories: 'Hitler Diaries' Discoverer Living on Welfare (04/22/2008)
  http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,1518,548962,00.html

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EUA: uma grande provincia petrolifera? - Der Spiegel

Full Throttle Ahead: US Tips Global Power Scales with Fracking

By SPIEGEL Staff - February 1, 2013

DPA

The United States is sitting on massive natural gas and oil reserves that have the potential to shift the geopolitical balance in its favor. Worries are increasing in Russia and the Arab states of waning influence and falling market prices.

Williston, North Dakota, is a bleak little city in the vast American prairie. It's dusty in the summer and frigid in the winter. Moose hunting is one of the few sources of entertainment. But despite its drawbacks, Williston has seen its population more than double within a short period of time.

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The city is so overcrowded that new arrivals often have no place to stay but in their motor homes, which, at monthly parking fees of $1,200 (€880), isn't exactly inexpensive. And more people continue to arrive in this nondescript little town. The reason for the influx is simple: Geologists have discovered a layer of shale saturated with natural gas and oil deep beneath the city. The Bakken formation, spanning thousands of square kilometers, has become synonymous with an American economic miracle that the country hasn't experienced since the oil rush almost 100 years ago.
North Dakota now has virtual full employment, and the state budget showed an estimated surplus of $1.6 billion in 2012. Truck drivers in the state make $100,000 a year, while the strippers being brought in from Las Vegas rake in more than $1,000 a night. President Barack Obama calls the discovery of Bakken and similar shale gas formations in Texas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Utah a "stroke of luck," saying: "We have a hundred years' worth of energy right beneath our feet."
A Vital Nerve
The future of the American energy supply was looking grim until recently. With its own resources waning, the United States was dependent on Arab oil sheiks and erratic dictators. Rising energy costs were hitting a vital nerve in the country's industrial sector.
But the situation has fundamentally changed since American drilling experts began using a method called "fracking," with which oil and gas molecules can be extracted from dense shale rock formations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the United States will replace Russia as the world's largest producer of natural gas in only two years. The Americans could also become the world's top petroleum producers by 2017.

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Low natural gas prices -- the price of natural gas in the United States is only a quarter of what it was in 2008 -- could fuel a comeback of American industry. "Low-cost natural gas is the elixir, the sweetness, the juice, the Viagra," an American industry representative told the business magazine Fortune. "What it's doing is changing the US back into the industrial power of the day." The government estimates that the boom could generate 600,000 new jobs, and some experts even believe that up to 3 million new jobs could be created in the coming years. "My administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy," Obama said during his most recent State of the Union address.
Shifting Calculations
The gas revolution is changing the political balance of power all over the world. Americans and Russians have waged wars, and they have propped up or toppled regimes, over oil and gas. When the flows of energy change, the strategic and military calculations of the major powers do as well.
It is still unclear who the winners and losers will be. The Chinese and the Argentines also have enormous shale gas reserves. Experts believe that Poland, France and Germany have significant resources, although no one knows exactly how significant. Outside the United States, extraction is still in its infancy.
The outlines of a changed world order are already emerging in the simulations of geo-strategists. They show that the United States will benefit the most from the development of shale gas and oil resources. A study by Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, concludes that Washington's discretionary power in foreign and security policy will increase substantially as a result of the country's new energy riches.

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Info Graphic Galley: America Steps on the Gas

According to the BND study, the political threat potential of oil producers like Iran will decline. Optimists assume that, in about 15 years, the United States will no longer have to send any aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf to guarantee that oil tankers can pass unhindered through the Strait of Hormuz, still the most important energy bottleneck in the world. The Russians could be on the losing end of the stick. The power of President Vladimir Putin is based primarily on oil and gas revenues. If energy prices decline in the long term, bringing down Russian revenues from the energy sector, Putin's grip on power could begin to falter. The Americans' sudden oil and gas riches are also not very good news for authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.
European industry is also likely to benefit from falling world market prices for oil and gas. But according to prognoses, without domestic extraction the Europeans' site-specific advantages deteriorate.
German chemical giant BASF has already invested a lot of money in the United States in the last two years. In Louisiana, for example, it has built new plants for the production of methyl amines and formic acid. "The local natural gas price is a criterion that affects the question of where we invest in new production facilities," says BASF Executive Board member Harald Schwager. At the moment, the United States has a clear advantage over Europe in this regard."
German Reservations
So far, the political debate in Germany has been dominated by concerns over adverse environmental effects. Fracking has become a dirty word for citizens' initiatives and environmental groups.
The concept of pumping water laced with chemicals into the earth at high pressures to crack open layers of rock several thousand meters beneath the surface makes many citizens uneasy, even though the technology has, in principle, already been used for decades in conventional gas extraction in the northern German state of Lower Saxony.
At the same time, Germany's energy and climate policy would in fact be a reason to use the new gas reserves. Flexible gas power plants would be the best approach to offsetting unpredictable fluctuations in wind and solar electricity, thereby maintaining a reliable power supply. Besides, burning natural gas generates up to 60 percent less climate-damaging CO2 than burning coal.
With the help of natural gas, the Americans have been able to reduce their CO2 emissions associated with energy production to the lowest level in years. This is one of the reasons the country plans to replace one in six coal-fired power plants with gas power plants by 2020.
At the Munich Security Conference this weekend, fracking will be at the top of the agenda for the first time. In fact, one of the agenda items is called "The American Oil and Gas Bonanza." In past years, nuclear weapons and threats from international terror were discussed at the conference, but this year one of the hot topics is the "Changing Geopolitics of Energy." This shows how important the issue has become. "It is perhaps a permissible exaggeration to claim a natural gas revolution," John Deutch, a former undersecretary at the Energy Department and CIA director, and now a professor at the elite Massachusetts Institute of Technology, recently wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine. Deutch has been monitoring the development for years.
America 's Energy Miracle
In the late 1990s, American oil and gas companies used new technologies to advance into previously unexplored layers of the earth. They drill up to 4,000 meters (13,123 feet) into the shale, then make a sharp turn and continue to drill horizontally. Then they inject a mixture of water, chemicals and sand into the drilled well at high pressure. This creates small fractures in the surrounding rock, allowing gas and oil to be released and rise to the surface through pipes.
New technologies are drastically reducing drilling costs. In 2012, shale gas already made up 34 percent of total production, and the technology is constantly improving. The sector is booming, and there are dozens of new companies searching for additional, previously undiscovered deposits.
In the future, the United States could even go from being a net energy importer to a net exporter. But that would require a true policy shift. Since the oil shock of the 1970s, the export of domestic petroleum resources has been banned in the United States. Many companies also have an interest in keeping as much of the cheap natural gas in the country as possible, as it provides them with a competitive advantage over foreign competitors.
According to a study, lower natural gas prices last year created a benefit worth more than $100 billion for US industry. "The country has stumbled into a windfall on the backs of these entrepreneurs," says study co-author Professor Edward Hirs of the University of Houston.
And perhaps things will indeed improve substantially. The US government has identified a new deposit in Utah, although additional major advances in technology are needed to make extraction economically viable. The Utah deposit contains an estimated 1.5 trillion barrels of extractable oil, or as much as the world's entire proven oil reserves to date.
Russia on the Losing End
A building in the southwestern section of Moscow juts into the sky like a rocket. The architectural message of the headquarters of energy giant Gazprom, which towers over everything else around it, is clear: The only way is up. Until recently, there was still an overwhelming consensus that nuclear weapons and energy commodities like oil and gas are the two currencies that gave a country its superpower status. Russia, the world's largest exporter of natural resources, has both in abundance.

President Putin built his dominance at home and his foreign policy on Russia's wealth of natural resources. Oil and gas revenues make up about 50 percent of the national budget. The president needs Gazprom's billions in revenues to keep his supporters, mostly government employees, retirees, blue-collar workers and farmers, happy with expensive social benefits. Gas also plays a central role in the plan to expand Russia's sphere of influence into the former Soviet republics. But now the American natural resources boom threatens Putin's dreams of an imperial resurrection of his country. It is already struggling with falling gas prices. Gazprom's operating profit shrank by more than 25 percent in the first nine months of 2012.
The Russians are now forced to give their customers, like Germany's E.on and Italian energy company Eni, discounts in the billions. Still, the Europeans are reorienting themselves. In the first three quarters of 2912, Gazprom sales fell by 43 percent in the Netherlands, 30 percent in Slovakia and 20 percent in France.

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• Part 1: US Tips Global Power Scales with Fracking
• Part 2: The Kremlin Is Alarmed