O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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Mostrando postagens com marcador Estado falido. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Estado falido. Mostrar todas as postagens

quarta-feira, 20 de junho de 2018

Brasil falindo ou ja falido? Preciso reescrever esse paper - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Academia.edu me cumprimenta por este paper: 

Brazil as a Failing State (or, is it already a Failed State?)”, Brasília, 12 June 2017, 15 p. Note of opinion drafted for the Estoril Political Forum, Panel Brazil, June 27, 2017. Divulgado no blog Diplomatizzando(26/06/2017; link: http://diplomatizzando.blogspot.pt/2017/06/brasil-existe-uma-crise-da-democracia.html), disseminado no Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/paulobooks/posts/1569376183125826). Postado na plataforma Academia.edu (18/06/2018; link: https://www.academia.edu/36866539/Brazil_as_a_Failing_State_or_is_it_already_a_Failed_State_-_Estoril_Political_Forum_2017); postado novamente no blog Diplomatizzando (19/06/2018; link: https://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2018/06/brazil-as-failing-state-or-is-it.html).

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Hi Paulo Roberto, 
Congratulations! You uploaded your paper 2 days ago and it is already gaining traction. 
Total views since upload: 
You got 50 views from the United States, Brazil, Angola, Portugal, Argentina, Ukraine, and Romania on "Brazil as a Failing State (or, is it already a Failed State?) - Estoril Political Forum 2017". 
Thanks,
The Academia.edu Team

Creio que vou ter de reescrever esse paper. Eu tinha sido muito cauteloso um ano atrás...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

quinta-feira, 6 de julho de 2017

Venezuela: um Estado falido - Paulo Paranagua

Analyse 
Imposture populiste au Venezuela 


Paulo A. Paranagua10/05/2017
Service International 
Au Venezuela, les manifestations contre le régime se ­succèdent, malgré une répression brutale. Il y a une ­vingtaine d'années, un lieutenant-colonel parachutiste, Hugo Chavez, arrivait au pouvoir par les urnes, après avoir échoué à le faire par les armes. Il avait promis de combattre la corruption. Pendant sa longue présidence (1999-2013), le cours du pétrole est passé de 8 dollars le baril à 150 dollars. La manne pétrolière dont il a bénéficié a dépassé les 1 100 milliards de dollars. La moitié de cette somme ne figurait pas dans le budget de l'Etat, basé sur un cours du brut systématiquement sous-évalué, ni dans les comptes publics. C'est le hold-up du siècle.
Cette fortune a été versée à des cagnottes opaques, utilisées de manière discrétionnaire. Elle a alimenté le clientélisme chaviste et arrosé les soutiens du régime des deux ­côtés de l'Atlantique, qu'ils soient hommes politiques ou affairistes, journalistes ou universitaires. Les pétrodollars n'ont pas d'odeur. ­Légende noire ? En Argentine, une douanière zélée a découvert une valise provenant de ­Caracas avec 800 000 dollars, en pleine campagne pour la réélection de la présidente Cristina Kirchner. Et en Espagne, le fisc a coincé des dirigeants de Podemos (gauche radicale) qui avaient omis de déclarer des sommes ­reçues du Venezuela. Ces revenus pétroliers siphonnés ne sont pas inscrits dans les livres de comptabilité, contrairement aux pots-de-vin de l'entreprise brésilienne Odebrecht : une chance pour les propagandistes du ­chavisme invités au Cayena, luxueux hôtel de Caracas, aux frais de la princesse. Le ­Venezuela est un Etat corrompu et corrupteur.
Après quarante ans de démocratie civile, Hugo Chavez a remis en selle la tradition militariste du pays. Les militaires, qui n'ont ­jamais gagné une guerre, se posent en sauveurs de la patrie. Avec le chavisme, ils se sont enrichis, ils ont trempé dans les trafics d'armes, de drogues et de denrées alimentaires, alors que les Vénézuéliens subissent des ­pénuries. Ils ont leur propre entreprise pour l'exploitation pétrolière et minière. Le tiers des ministres, de nombreux gouverneurs et chefs d'entreprises publiques sont des gradés. Le ­Venezuela est un Etat militaire.
La nouvelle bourgeoisie « bolivarienne » a stimulé les appétits du crime organisé. Au lieu de le combattre, le populisme s'est appuyé sur la pègre, qui tient les prisons et contrôle des territoires. Les « collectifs » chavistes armés, chargés des basses oeuvres du régime, sont à la frontière de la politique et de la délinquance. L'explosion du nombre d'homicides - 21 752 en 2016, selon la procureure générale de la République, beaucoup plus selon des ONG - est le symptôme des déchirements du tissu social et d'une déliquescence des institutions. La plupart des juges sont soumis au pouvoir. Le président de la Cour suprême a un ­casier judiciaire, avec deux homicides. Le ­Venezuela est un Etat mafieux. Hugo Chavez a respecté les résultats électoraux tant qu'ils lui étaient favorables. Ce n'est plus le cas de son successeur, Nicolas Maduro. D'aucuns ont cru voir dans le bricolage institutionnel d'Hugo Chavez une forme de ­démocratie participative, capable de rééquilibrer la démocratie représentative. En fait, il a vidé de leur substance l'une et l'autre. Il n'était pas un bâtisseur, juste un démolisseur, qui faisait le vide autour de son leadership charismatique.
UN éTAT FAILLI
Sa Constitution stipule l'existence de cinq pouvoirs au lieu de trois : les autorités électorales sont censées être autonomes, tandis qu'un « pouvoir moral » regroupe le parquet, le médiateur et la Cour des comptes. Or la séparation des pouvoirs n'existe pas : l'exécutif commande au nom de la « révolution ­bolivarienne » et de « l'unité civico-militaire ». Le Venezuela n'est pas un Etat de droit, ni une République, mais un Etat failli.
Par ordre d'Hugo Chavez, l'ambassade vénézuélienne à Paris devait s'assurer que la vie du terroriste Carlos en prison soit la plus confortable possible. Cela va bien au-delà du devoir d'assistance consulaire. Ce mercenaire vénézuélien du terrorisme palestinien, trois fois condamné à la prison à perpétuité en France, est un héros national pour les chavistes. Base arrière de la guérilla des Forces armées révolutionnaires de Colombie, plate-forme du trafic de stupéfiants vers l'Europe, le Venezuela est impliqué dans un trafic de passeports au Moyen-Orient. Caracas est complaisant, si ce n'est complice, avec « narcos » et terroristes.
Hugo Chavez prétendait aider les pauvres avec ses programmes sociaux. Le populisme, la gabegie et les malversations ont plongé dans la pauvreté les trois quarts des Vénézuéliens, privés d'aliments, de médicaments et désormais du droit de vote, puisque les élections sont renvoyées aux calendes grecques. Depuis début avril, on assiste à un printemps vénézuélien. Le régime réprime et ses « collectifs » tuent par balles les opposants ou les mécontents qui manifestent dans la rue.
Hugo Chavez et Nicolas Maduro ont cherché une légitimité révolutionnaire du côté de Cuba. Fidel Castro a joué son rôle de mentor en échange de pétrole à prix d'ami et de devises pour ses services de santé. Ainsi, même le castrisme crépusculaire s'est fait rétribuer son soutien. Le « socialisme du XXIe siècle » de Chavez s'est donc construit sur les vestiges mal digérés du stalinisme du XXe siècle et une régression nostalgique vers le nationalisme du XIXe. Le chavisme a ruiné le Venezuela en moitié moins de temps que Castro l'a fait à Cuba, alors que l'économie cubaine avait pour seul carburant le sucre. Le populisme est l'imposture idéologique du XXIe siècle.

quinta-feira, 27 de dezembro de 2012

Cuba: um Estado falido? - Orlando Tambosi blog

Um Estado falido é, em primeiro lugar, um Estado que não consegue sequer administrar sua economia de maneira competente com vistas a assegurar o abastecimento alimentar adequado ao seu próprio povo. Uma outra característica de um Estado falido é o fato de não conseguir assegurar segurança quanto ao futuro ao seu próprio povo, tratando antes de assegurar a segurança dos aparatchiks do regime, o que aliás faz desse Estado um regime autoritário, antidemocrático e sem qualquer legitimidade política.
Cuba exibe ambas características: é um Estado falido. Tanto que precisa ser alimentada por amigos e aliados...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Governo esfola brasileiros e pratica caridade lá fora. É um dos maiores doadores da ONU.

  Blog do Orlando Tambosi
É isso: impostos extorsivos aqui e doações milionárias a Cuba, por exemplo, com a qual o governo brasileiro é um verdadeiro Papai Noel. A coisa é feita através de um órgão da ONU, esse elefante branco hoje dominado por tiranetes. A obsessão do lulismo é ter uma cadeia naquela assembléia de autoritários. Generosidade com o bolso alheio é fácil. No Brasil, ao que parece, só existem famintos no discurso de Dona Dilma, fiel seguidora do falastrão de Garanhuns:

O Programa Mundial de Alimentos das Nações Unidas (PMA) anunciou na quinta-feira a chegada a Cuba de uma carga de 25 mil toneladas de arroz doadas pelo Brasil para apoiar programas de assistência social. Esta doação é parte de um fundo de 710 mil toneladas de alimentos que foi criado pelo Brasil em 2011 para apoiar as operações do PMA em nível mundial. A embarcação "MV Nahide" transportará a carga que será descarregada nos portos de Havana e da cidade oriental de Santiago de Cuba, detalha a nota divulgada pelo PMA na capital cubana. "Por meio de um eficiente processo de irmanação, o Brasil doa os alimentos enquanto Cuba cobre os custos de transporte e armazenamento dos alimentos, que para esta carga ascendem a US$ 2,7 milhões, sendo esta a primeira vez que o Governo cubano participa deste processo", explica. A nota também destaca que Cuba entrega ao PMA há mais de 12 anos uma contribuição anual de 2,5 mil toneladas de açúcar. "Estamos muito agradecidos ao Governo e ao povo do Brasil por esta contribuição.", disse o diretor regional do PMA, Gemmo Lodesani, durante uma recente visita à ilha. Também indicou que o Brasil vem desempenhando um papel cada vez maior na assistência humanitária e que esta nova doação "confirma seu compromisso com os quais mais necessitam. A generosidade de Cuba, compartilhando o que tem, é também admirável" acrescentou. A nota ressalta que o Brasil doou mais de 300 mil toneladas de alimentos a 35 países através do PMA desde 2011 e que suas contribuições aumentaram de US$ 1 milhão em 2007 para mais de US$ 82 milhões durante 2012, o que colocou o país entre os dez maiores doadores dessa agência humanitária. (Fonte).

sexta-feira, 8 de abril de 2011

O dia em que o governo fechou... (seria bom...)

Não, infelizmente não é o nosso governo, mas não custa sonhar: se o governo fechasse por um dia (de preferência por uma semana), nós, cidadãos, seríamos tosquiados em proporção relativamente menor, mas apenas um pouco, pois ainda restariam cinco meses de espoliação e extração fiscal.
Estou, na verdade, me referindo ao governo dos EUA, que pode fechar nesta sexta-feira, caso não exista um acordo entre a Administração Obama e a maioria republicana da Câmara sobre o próximo orçamento (na verdade dois, o deste ano e o do próximo).
Para vocês terem uma ideia da ENORME diferença de intenções, de cada uma das partes, vejam aqui a reprodução gráfica entre a distância entre os dois orçamentos, que fui buscar na página do economista John Taylor, mais especificamente neste link.


Como seria bom se o Brasil também pudesse debater um orçamento enxuto...

sábado, 29 de maio de 2010

Paquistao: um pais profundamente ferido pelo terrorismo sectario

O Paquistão já é, de certa forma, um Estado falido, incapaz de assegurar a segurança de sua própria população, inclusive porque o próprio Estado faz distinção entre os seus cidadãos, como demonstra esta matéria sobre o mais recente ataque terrorista contra "infiéis" muçulmanos...
A prova de que o Paquistão se aproxima de um Estado falido é fornecido pela matéria seguinte, no mesmo jornal, que indica que os EUA poderão atacar unilateralmente regiões do país se ficar provada alguma conexão com ataques terroristas nos EUA.

Militants attack two Ahmadi mosques in Pakistan; 80 killed
By Rizwan Mohammed and Karin Brulliard
Washington Post, Saturday, May 29, 2010

Dozens killed in attack on Pakistan mosques
As Friday prayers ended on May 28, 2010, as many as 10 militants armed with grenades, high-powered rifles and suicide vests opened fire on two mosques in Lahore.

LAHORE, PAKISTAN -- Militants staged coordinated attacks in this eastern city Friday on two mosques of a minority Muslim sect, taking hostages and killing at least 80 people.

The attacks, which began minutes apart, targeted places of worship belonging to the Ahmadi sect, each of which was packed with at least 1,500 people, according to Ahmadi representatives in the United States. At least seven men armed with grenades, high-powered rifles and suicide vests stormed the mosques as Friday prayers ended.

A group identifying itself as the Punjab provincial chapter of the Pakistani Taliban, an amorphous Sunni Muslim organization based in the country's mountainous tribal regions, asserted responsibility for the attack, according to the Geo television network. The Taliban has carried out bombings across Pakistan over the past three years, increasingly allying with like-minded groups in the country's heartland.

Friday's attacks, which wounded at least 78 people, demonstrated the continued ability of the Taliban and its associates to strike forcefully in urban centers and pointed to rising sectarian tensions in Sunni-majority Pakistan.

Ahmadis consider themselves Muslim, but Pakistani law does not recognize them as such. Sunni conservatives have led a recent campaign to ostracize them, and Sunni extremists have made Ahmadis, as well as Shiites, the target of violence. But neither minority sect has previously been the target of a large-scale, coordinated assault.

At one mosque, in the elite neighborhood of Model Town, four gunmen opened fire and tossed grenades at security and police guards, then at worshipers. At least 19 people were killed before police regained control, said Sajjad Bhutta, the deputy commissioner of Lahore.

Near the city's main railway station in the district of Garhi Shahu, a team of about three men besieged another mosque, taking several hundred people hostage. A standoff ensued as police and fighters exchanged gunfire. The militants then detonated explosives, killing scores, Bhutta said.

"When the gunmen entered the premises firing, the imam said aloud, 'Everyone on the ground!' " said Luqman, 27, a shopkeeper who declined to give his full name. "I ran out, along with 25 to 30 people, as the gunmen sprayed bullets on us from behind. Many fell. I was lucky."

An estimated 2 million to 5 million Ahmadis live in Pakistan. They believe their founder was a savior sent by God, an idea considered blasphemous under Pakistani law and anti-Muslim to many fundamentalist Islamists. That makes the Ahmadis a valid target in the eyes of radicals.

On Thursday night, unidentified gunmen ambushed and killed three Ahmadi businessmen in Faisalabad, an industrial city about 100 miles west of Lahore. Faisalabad Police Chief Sadiq Dogar said it appeared to be a sectarian slaying.

Elsewhere in Pakistan on Friday, a suspected U.S. drone-fired missile struck a Taliban compound in the South Waziristan tribal area, killing eight, according to two officials in the region.

Mohammed is a special correspondent. Brulliard reported from Kabul.

================

Options studied for a possible Pakistan strike
By Greg Miller
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, May 29, 2010; A01

The U.S. military is reviewing options for a unilateral strike in Pakistan in the event that a successful attack on American soil is traced to the country's tribal areas, according to senior military officials.

Ties between the alleged Times Square bomber, Faisal Shahzad, and elements of the Pakistani Taliban have sharpened the Obama administration's need for retaliatory options, the officials said. They stressed that a U.S. reprisal would be contemplated only under extreme circumstances, such as a catastrophic attack that leaves President Obama convinced that the ongoing campaign of CIA drone strikes is insufficient.

"Planning has been reinvigorated in the wake of Times Square," one of the officials said.

At the same time, the administration is trying to deepen ties to Pakistan's intelligence officials in a bid to head off any attack by militant groups. The United States and Pakistan have recently established a joint military intelligence center on the outskirts of the northwestern city of Peshawar, and are in negotiations to set up another one near Quetta, the Pakistani city where the Afghan Taliban is based, according to the U.S. military officials. They and other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity surrounding U.S. military and intelligence activities in Pakistan.

The "fusion centers" are meant to bolster Pakistani military operations by providing direct access to U.S. intelligence, including real-time video surveillance from drones controlled by the U.S. Special Operations Command, the officials said. But in an acknowledgment of the continuing mistrust between the two governments, the officials added that both sides also see the centers as a way to keep a closer eye on one another, as well as to monitor military operations and intelligence activities in insurgent areas.

Obama said during his campaign for the presidency that he would be willing to order strikes in Pakistan, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said in a television interview after the Times Square attempt that "if, heaven forbid, an attack like this that we can trace back to Pakistan were to have been successful, there would be very severe consequences."

Obama dispatched his national security adviser, James L. Jones, and CIA Director Leon Panetta to Islamabad this month to deliver a similar message to Pakistani officials, including President Asif Ali Zardari and the military chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani.

Jones and Panetta also presented evidence gathered by U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies that Shahzad received significant support from the Pakistani Taliban.

The U.S. options for potential retaliatory action rely mainly on air and missile strikes, but could also employ small teams of U.S. Special Operations troops already positioned along the border with Afghanistan. One of the senior military officials said plans for military strikes in Pakistan have been revised significantly over the past several years, moving away from a "large, punitive response" to more measured plans meant to deliver retaliatory blows against specific militant groups.

The official added that there is a broad consensus in the U.S. military that airstrikes would at best erode the threat posed by al-Qaeda and its affiliates, and risk an irreparable rupture in the U.S. relationship with Pakistan.

"The general feeling is that we need to be circumspect in how we respond so we don't destroy the relationships we've built" with the Pakistani military, the second official said.

U.S. Special Operations teams in Afghanistan have pushed for years to have wider latitude to carry out raids across the border, arguing that CIA drone strikes do not yield prisoners or other opportunities to gather intelligence. But a 2008 U.S. helicopter raid against a target in Pakistan prompted protests from officials in Islamabad who oppose allowing U.S. soldiers to operate within their country.

The CIA has the authority to designate and strike targets in Pakistan without case-by-case approval from the White House. U.S. military forces are currently authorized to carry out unilateral strikes in Pakistan only if solid intelligence were to surface on any of three high-value targets: al-Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, or Taliban chief Mohammad Omar. But even in those cases, the military would need higher-level approval.

"The bottom line is you have to have information about targets to do something [and] we have a process that remains cumbersome," said one of the senior military officials. "If something happens, we have to confirm who did it and where it came from. People want to be as precise as possible to be punitive."

U.S. spy agencies have engaged in a major buildup inside Pakistan over the past year. The CIA has increased the pace of drone strikes against al-Qaeda affiliates, a campaign supported by the arrival of new surveillance and eavesdropping technology deployed by the National Security Agency.

The fusion centers are part of a parallel U.S. military effort to intensify the pressure on the Taliban and other groups accused of directing insurgent attacks in Afghanistan. U.S. officials said that the sharing of intelligence goes both ways and that targets are monitored in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In the Peshawar fusion cell, which was set up within the last several months, Pakistanis have access to "full-motion video from different platforms," including unarmed surveillance drones, one official said.

The fusion centers also serve a broader U.S. aim: making the Pakistanis more dependent on U.S. intelligence, and less likely to curtail Predator drone patrols or other programs that draw significant public opposition.

To Pakistan, the fusion centers offer a glimpse of U.S. capabilities, as well as the ability to monitor U.S. military operations across the border. "They find out much more about what we know," one of the senior U.S. military officials said. "What we get is physical presence -- to see what they are actually doing versus what they say they're doing."

That delicate arrangement will be tested if the two sides reach agreement on the fusion center near Quetta. The city has served for nearly a decade as a sanctuary for Taliban leaders who fled Afghanistan in 2001 and have long-standing ties to Pakistan's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence directorate.

U.S. officials said that the two sides have done preliminary work searching for a suitable site for the center but that the effort is proceeding at a pace that one official described as "typical Pakistani glacial speed." Despite the increased cooperation, U.S. officials say they continue to be frustrated over Pakistan's slow pace in issuing visas to American military and civilian officials.

One senior U.S. military official said the center would be used to track the Afghan Taliban leadership council, known as the Quetta shura. But other officials said the main mission would be to support the U.S. military effort across the border in Kandahar, Afghanistan, where a major U.S. military push is planned.

Staff writers Greg Jaffe and Karen DeYoung contributed to this report.