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Mostrando postagens com marcador Primeira Guerra Mundial. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Primeira Guerra Mundial. Mostrar todas as postagens

sábado, 12 de março de 2022

Lições monetárias da Primeira Guerra Mundial - Luiz Gonzaga Belluzzo (Carta Capital)

Ontem e hoje
Lições monetárias da Primeira Guerra Mundial

Luiz Gonzaga Belluzzo

 01:15:11 | 11/03/2022 | Economia | Revista Carta Capital 


A maioria dos países saiu do primeiro conflito mundial com as finanças públicas destroçadas pelo financiamento das despesas militares, realizado basicamente por meio do endividamento e da emissão de papel-moeda inconversível. As dívidas de guerra e as reparações exigiram um esforço adicional de obtenção de recursos fiscais que as populações - principalmente as classes abastadas - não estavam dispostas a conceder aos governos.

Esmagada pelas reparações de guerra que lhe foram impostas pelo Tratado de Versalhes, a economia alemã sucumbiu à impossibilidade de gerar as divisas necessárias para servir o que lhe fora imposto. A fuga sistemática do marco para o dólar e a libra, as moedas-reservas do Gold Exchange Standard, disparou a hiperinflação e a necessidade de emissões monetárias do Reichsbank para "cobrir" a fuga desesperada da moeda nacional.

Em sua ressurreição, sob a forma do Gold Exchange Standard, o padrão-ouro foi incapaz de reanimar as convenções e de reproduzir os processos de ajustamento e as formas de coordenação responsáveis pelo desempenho anterior. O último país a declarar oficialmente sua adesão ao padrão-ouro foi a França, em 1928. Antes dela, entre 1923 e 1925, retornaram a Alemanha e seus companheiros de hiperinflação, Áustria, Hungria e Polônia. Esses náufragos da moeda destroçada foram socorridos pelos empréstimos de estabilização, concedidos, sobretudo, pelos bancos norte-americanos.

A volta mais aguardada era a da Inglaterra. Isso ocorreu em 1925, de forma inadequada. O estabelecimento da paridade da libra com o ouro no mesmo nível que prevalecia antes da guerra foi a causa de muitos dos problemas de coordenação que se apresentaram durante os conturbados anos 1920 e 1930.

Sob a forma modificada do Gold Exchange Standard, que permitia - diante da escassez de ouro - a acumulação de reservas em moeda "forte" (basicamente o dólar e a libra), esse arranjo monetário provocou assimetrias no ajustamento dos balanços de pagamentos e desatou, frequentemente, uma especulação causadora de instabilidade nos mercados financeiros. A decisão da Inglaterra, tomada em 1925, de voltar à paridade do período anterior à guerra, era claramente incompatível com o novo nível de preços interno e tampouco reconhecia o declínio de seu poderio econômico e financeiro.

Os Estados Unidos saíram do conflito com créditos acumulados contra os países europeus e fortalecidos economicamente diante de competidores que tiveram suas economias destroçadas. A "sobrevalorização" da libra e a "subvalorização" de outras moedas, principalmente do franco, causaram, ao longo do tempo, o aprofundamento dos desequilíbrios do balanço de pagamentos e pressões continuadas sobre a moeda inglesa. As perspectivas dos mercados quanto à sustentação da paridade eram pessimistas e os ajustamentos entre países superavitários e deficitários não ocorriam.

Os déficits e os superávits tendiam a se tornar crônicos, em boa medida porque os países superavitários tratavam de trocar seus haveres em "moeda forte" por ouro. Os Estados Unidos, a França e a Alemanha acabaram por concentrar uma fração substancial das reservas em ouro, contribuindo para confirmar as expectativas negativas quanto ao futuro da libra.

Os capitais privados, principalmente de origem norte-americana, entre 1925 e 1928, estimulados pelos diferenciais de juros (e ativos baratos) nos países de moeda recém-estabilizada, em particular na Alemanha, formaram bolhas especulativas, ávidos em colher as oportunidades de ganhos de capital. O ciclo de "inflação de ativos" estrangeiros foi concomitante à rápida valorização das ações da Bolsa de Valores norte-americana. Essa onda de especulação altista, como não poderia deixar de ser, foi alimentada pela expansão do crédito nos Estados Unidos, onde as taxas de desconto ainda foram reduzidas, em 1927, para aliviar as pressões exercidas contra a libra.

O desastre que se seguiu foi consequência da mudança de sinal da política monetária dos EUA, em meados de 1928.0 Federal Reserve, preocupado com o aquecimento da economia e com a febre dos mercados financeiros, subiu a taxa de desconto, provocando o "estouro" da bolha especulativa em outubro de 1929. Os "grilhões dourados" do regime monetário tiveram grande responsabilidade na imobilização das políticas econômicas, determinando uma quase completa incapacidade de resposta e de coordenação dos governos da Europa e, ao menos até 1933, dos Estados Unidos.

Antes da eclosão da guerra Rússia-Ucrânia, o Federal Reserve, pressionado pela inflação norte-americana, prometia a elevação da policy rate e a redução dos estímulos monetários. Vai cumprir a promessa? A história não se repete, mas rima, já dizia MarkTwain. 

quarta-feira, 28 de junho de 2017

This Day in History: Tratado de Versalhes, em 1919, o que provocou uma nova guerra

On June 28, 1919, the Treaty of Versailles was signed in France, ending World War I.
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Front Page Image

Peace Signed, Ends the Great War; Germans Depart Still Protesting; Prohibition Till Troops Disband



Enemy Envoys in Truculent Spirit
Say Afterward They Would Not Have Signed Had They Known They Were to Leave First by Different Way
China Refuses to Sign, Smuts Makes Protest
These Events Somewhat Cloud the Great Occasion at Versailles--Wilson, Clemenceau, and Lloyd George Receive a Tremendous Ovation
RELATED HEADLINESWilson Promises to Act: Must Wait Until Complete Demobilization, His Word from Paris: This Will Take 7 Weeks: President Calls Attention of Congress to His Request for Repeal: Liquor Men Unprepared: Had Hoped Until Announcement That Executive Would Intervene at the Eleventh Hour
President Sends A Prohibition Message; Says He Will Act When Demobilization Ends
League Opponents Uniting: Republican Senators Now Seem Agreed on Policy of Reservations: McCumber Is Won Over: But North Dakota Senator Opposes Any Action Nullifying the Covenant: Shantung Action Assailed: Borah Calls It Indefensible--Norris Demands a Reservation Regarding It
Wilson Says Treaty Will Furnish the Charter for a New Order of Affairs in the World
Violence Grows in Berlin Ferment: Bomb Hurled at Building in Which Officials Were Conferring on Strike: Shots Fired at Ministers: Railway Strikers Ignore Orders from Noske and Union Chiefs to Resume Work
Dutch Unwilling To Give Up Kaiser: Majority of the People Firmly Opposed to Yielding to Allies' Demand: Hopeful at Amerongen: Troelstra Says Chamber Would Surrender Ex-Ruler to Germany Only
Deport Thirty 'Red' Agitators: Fifteen Have Been Shipped Away in a Week--18 More Waiting at Ellis Island: Most of Them Anarchists: Number Includes Some Suspected of Having a Hand in Plot Against Officials
America Greeted By King George: "Brothers in Arms Will Continue Forever to be Brothers in Peace": Sends Message to Wilson: "We Lay Down Our Arms in Proud Consciousness of Valiant Deeds Nobly Done"
Versailles, June 28, (Associated Press.)--Germany and the allied and associated powers signed the peace terms here today in the same imperial hall where the Germans humbled the French so ignominiously forty-eight years ago.
This formally ended the world war, which lasted just thirty-seven days less than five years. Today, the day of peace, was the fifth anniversary of the murder of Archduke Francis Ferdinand by a Serbian student at Serajevo.
The peace was signed under circumstances which somewhat dimmed the expectations of those who had worked and fought during long years of war and months of negotiations for its achievement.
Absence of the Chinese delegates, who at the last moment were unable to reconcile themselves to the Shantung settlement, struck the first discordant note. A written protest which General Smuts lodged with his signature was another disappointment.
But bulking larger than these was the attitude of Germany and the German plenipotentiaries, which left them, as evident from the expression of M. Clemenceau, still outside of formal reconciliation and made the actual restoration to regular relations and intercourse with the allied nations dependent, not upon the signature of the "preliminaries of peace" today, but upon ratification by the National Assembly.
To M. Clemenceau's warning in his opening remarks that they would be expected, and held, to observe the treaty provisions loyally and completely the German delegates, through Dr. Haniel von Halmhausen, replied after returning to the hotel that had they known that they would be treated on a different status after signing than the allied representatives, as shown by their separate exit before the general body of the conference, they never would have signed.
Under the circumstances the general tone of sentiment in the historic sitting was one rather of relief at the uncontrovertible end of hostilities than of complete satisfaction.
The ceremony had been planned deliberately to be austere, befitting the sufferings of almost five years, and the lack of impressiveness and picturesque color, of which many spectators, who had expected a magnificent State pageant, complained, was a matter of design, not merely omission.
The actual ceremony was far shorter than had been expected, in view of the number of signatures which were to be appended to the treaty and the two accompanying conventions, ending a bare forty-nine minutes after the hour set for the opening. Premier Clemenceau called the session to order in the Hall of Mirrors at 3:10 P.M.
The signing began when Dr. Hermann M & uuml;ller and Johannes Bell, the German signatories, affixed their names. Herr M & uuml;ller signed at 3:12 o'clock and Herr Bell 3:13 o'clock.
President Wilson, the first of the allied delegates, signed a minute later. At 3:49 o'clock the momentous session was over.
The most dramatic moment connected with the signing came unexpectedly and spontaneously at the conclusion of the ceremony, when Premier Clemenceau, President Wilson and Premier Lloyd George descended from the Hall of Mirrors to the terrace at the rear of the palace, where thousands of spectators were massed.
Great Demonstration for Allied Leaders
With the appearance of the three who had dominated the councils of the Allies there began a most remarkable demonstration. With cries of "Vive Clemenceau!" "Vive Wilson!" "Vive Lloyd George!" dense crowds swept forward from all parts of the spacious terrace. In an instant the three were surrounded by struggling, cheering masses of people, fighting among themselves for a chance to get near the statesmen.
It had been planned that all the allied delegates would walk across the terrace after signing, to see the great fountains play, but none of the other plenipotentiaries got further than the door.
President Wilson, M. Clemenceau and Mr. Lloyd George were caught in the living stream which flowed across the great space and became part of the crowd themselves. Soldiers and bodyguards struggled vainly to clear the way. The people jostled and struggled for a chance to touch the hands of the leaders of the Allies, all the while cheering madly.
Probably the least concerned for their personal safety were the three themselves. They went forward smilingly, as the crowd willed, bowing in response to the ovation, and here and there reaching out to shake an insistent hand as they passed on their way through the ch & acirc;teau grounds to watch the playing of the fountains--a part of the program which had been planned as a dignified State processional of all the plenipotentiaries.
Every available point of vantage in the palace and about the grounds was filled with thousands of people, who, less hardy than their comrades, had not been able to join the procession. No more picturesque setting could have been selected for this drama.
The return of President Wilson, M. Clemenceau, and Lloyd George toward the palace was a repetition of their outward journey of triumph. As they reached the ch & acirc;teau, however, they turned to the left instead of entering. The crowd was in doubt as to what was intended, but followed, cheering tumultuously.
Nearby a closed car was waiting and the three entered this and they drove from the grounds together amid a profusion of flowers which had been thrust through the open window.
All the diplomats and members of their parties who attended the ceremony of treaty signing wore conventional civilian clothes. Outside of this also there was a marked lack of gold lace and pageantry, with few of the fanciful uniforms of the Middle Ages, whose traditions and practices are so sternly condemned in the great, seal-covered document signed today.
One spot of color was made against the sombre background by the French Guards. A few selected members of the Guard were there, resplendent in red-plumed silver helmets and red, white and blue uniforms.
A group of allied Generals, including General Pershing, wore the scarlet sash of the Legion of Honor.
As a contrast with the Franco-German peace session of 1871, held in the same hall, there were present today grizzled French veterans of the Franco-Prussian war. They took the place of the Prussian guardsmen of the previous ceremony, and the Frenchmen today watched the ceremony with grim satisfaction.
The conditions of 1871 were exactly reversed. Today the disciples of Bismarck sat in the seats of the lowly, while the white marble statue of Minerva, Goddess of War, looked on. Overhead, on the frescoed ceiling, were scenes from France's ancient wars.
German Protest at the Last Minute
Three incidents were emphasized by the smoothness with which the ceremony was conducted. The first of these was the failure of the Chinese delegation to sign. The second was the protest submitted by General Jan Christian Smuts, who declared the peace unsatisfactory.
The third, which was unknown to the general public, came from the Germans. When the program for the ceremony was shown to the German delegation, Herr von Haimhausen of the German delegation went to Colonel Henri, French liaison officer, and protested. He said:
"We cannot admit that the German delegates should enter the hall by a different door than the Entente delegates; nor that military honors should be withheld. Had we known there would be such arrangements before, the delegates would not have come."
After a conference with the French Foreign Ministry it was decided, as a compromise, to render military honors as the Germans left. Otherwise the program as originally arranged was not changed.
Secretary Lansing was the first of the American delegation to arrive at the palace, entering the building at 1:45 o'clock.
The Peace Treaty was deposited on the table at 2:10 o'clock by William Martin of the French Foreign Office. It was inclosed in a stamped leather case.
Premier Clemenceau entered the palace at 2:20 o'clock.
Detachments of fifteen soldiers each from the American, British and French forces entered just before 3 o'clock and took their places in embrasures of the windows, overlooking the ch & acirc;teau park, a few feet from Marshal Foch, seated with the French delegation at the peace table.
The American soldiers who saw the signing of the treaty were all attached to President Wilson's residence. They were: George W. Bender, Baltimore; Stanley Cohek, Chicopee, Mass.; George Bridgewater, Palestine, Texas; Harlan Hayes, Green City, Wis.; J.S. Horton, Lexington, Miss.; William R. Knox, Temple, Okla.; Albert E. Landreth, Portsmouth, Va.; Sergeant Sam Lane, Prosper, Texas; George Laudance, Philadelphia; M.D. Mary, Havre, Mon.; Fred Quantz, Cleveland; Hubert Ridgeway, Mo.; Raymond Riley, Baltimore, and Frank Wilgus, Allentown, Penn.
With the thirty poilus and Tommies they were present as the real "artisans of peace" and stood within the enclosure reserved for plenipotentiaries and high officials of the conference as a visible sign of their role in bringing into being a new Europe.
Premier Clemenceau promptly stepped up to the French detachment and shook the hand of each man. The men had been selected from those who bore honorable wounds, and the Premier expressed his pleasure at seeing them there and his regret for the sufferings they had endured for their country.
Delegates of the minor powers made their way with difficulty through the crowd to their places at the table. Officers and civilians lined the walls and filled the aisles.
President Wilson entered the Hall of Mirrors at 2:50 o'clock. All the allied delegates were then seated except the Chinese, who did not attend.
The difficulty of seeing well from many parts of the hall militated against demonstrations on the arrival of the chief personages. Only a few persons saw President Wilson when he came in, and there was but a faint sound of applause for him.
An hour before the signing of the treaty those assembled in the hall had been urged to take their seats, but their eagerness to see the historic ceremony was so keen that they refused to remain seated, and crowded toward the centre of the hall, which is so long that a good view was impossible from a distance. Even with opera glasses, correspondents and others were unable to observe satisfactorily, as the seats were not elevated; consequently there was a general scramble for standing room.
German correspondents were ushered into the hall just before 3 o'clock and took standing room in a window at the rear of the correspondents' section.
When Premier Lloyd George arrived many delegates sought autographs from the members of the Council of Four, and they busied themselves for the next few minutes signing copies of the official program.
At 3 o'clock a hush fell over the hall, and the crowds shouted for the officials, who were standing, to sit down, so as not to block the view. The delegates showed some surprise at the disorder, which did not cease until all the spectators had seated themselves or found places against the walls.
Muller and Bell Show Great Composure
At seven minutes past 3 Dr. M & uuml;ller, German Secretary for Foreign Affairs, and Dr. Bell, Colonial Secretary, were shown into the hall, and quietly took their seats, the other delegates not rising.
They showed composure, and manifested none of the uneasiness which Count von Brockdorff-Rantzau, head of the German peace delegation, displayed when handed the treaty at Versailles.
Dr. M & uuml;ller and Dr. Bell had driven early to Versailles by automobile from St. Cyr instead of taking the belt line railroad, as did the German delegates who came to receive the terms of peace on May 7. Their credentials had been approved in the morning.
In the allotment of seats in the ceremonial chamber places for the German delegates were on the side of the horseshoe table, where they touched elbows with Japanese plenipotentiaries on their right and the Brazilians on their left. Delegates from Ecuador, Peru, and Liberia faced the Germans across the narrow table.
M. Clemenceau, as President of the Conference, made this address:
"The session is open. The allied and associated powers on one side and the German reich on the other side have come to an agreement on the conditions of peace. The text has been completed, drafted, and the President of the Conference has stated in writing that the text that is about to be signed now is identical with the 200 copies that have been delivered to the German delegation.
"The signatures will be given now and they amount to a solemn undertaking faithfully and loyally to execute the conditions embodied by this treaty of peace. I now invite the delegates of the German reich to sign the treaty."
There was a tense pause for a moment. Then in response to M. Clemenceau's bidding, the German delegates rose without a word and, escorted by William Martin, master of ceremonies, moved to the signatory table, where they placed upon the treaty the sign manuals which German Government leaders declared until recently would never be appended to this treaty.
They also signed a protocol covering changes in the document and the Polish undertaking.
It was too distant to see, even with glasses, the expression on the faces on the German plenipotentiaries during the ceremony, but observers among the officials say that the Germans fulfilled their roles without apparent indications of emotions such as marked Count von Brockdorff-Rantzau's dramatic declarations at the first meeting.
President First Leader to Sign
When they regained their seats after signing, President Wilson immediately arose and, followed by the other American plenipotentiaries, moved around the sides of the horseshoe to the signature tables.
President Wilson, and not M. Clemenceau, thus had the honor of signing as first of the leaders of the world alliance, but the honor was due to the alphabet, not other considerations as the signatures occur in the same French alphabetical order as the enumeration of the allied and associated powers in the prologue of the treaty--the same order which determined the seating of the delegations at the plenary sessions of the interallied conference.
Premier Lloyd George came next, after the American envoys, with the English delegation. The British dominions followed.
The representatives of the dominions signed in the following order: For Canada--Charles J. Doherty, Minister of Justice; Sir George Foster, Minister of Trade and Commerce, and Arthur L. Sifton, Minister of Customs. For Australia--Premier William M. Hughes and Sir Gilbert Cook, Minister for the Navy. For New Zealand--W.F. Massey, Prime Minister and Minister of Labor. For the Union of South Africa--Premier Louis Botha and Jan Christian Smuts, Minister of Defense. For India--Edwin S. Montagu, Secretary for India, and the Maharaja of Bikanir.
Surprise Over Smuts's Protest
A murmur of surprise passed around the hall when it became known that General Smuts, representing South Africa, signed under protest and filed a document declaring that the peace was unsatisfactory.
He held that the indemnities stipulated could not be accepted without grave injury to the industrial revival of Europe. He declared that it would be to the interests of the allied powers to render the stipulations more tolerable and moderate.
General Smuts asserted that there were territorial settlements which he believed would need revision, and that guarantees were provided which he hoped would soon be found out of harmony with the new peaceful temper and unarmed state of the Central Powers. Punishments were also foreshadowed, he said, over which a calmer mood might yet prefer to pass the sponge of oblivion.
M. Clemenceau with the French delegates, were the next in line for the signing, then came Baron Salonji and the other Japanese delegates. The Italians came after the Japanese, and they, in turn, were followed by the representatives of the smaller powers.
During the attaching of the signatures of the great powers and the Germans a battery of moving picture machines and cameras clicked away so audibly that they could be heard above the general disorder.
At 3:45 the booming of cannon in celebration of the peace broke the monotony in the Hall of Mirrors, where the crowd had already tired of watching the signing.
China's failure to send her delegates to the ceremony created much comment. The vacant seats of the Chinese were noted early in the proceedings, but it was expected that the delegates would arrive later. Then the report was circulated officially that the Chinese would not sign without reservation on Shantung, and would issue a statement this evening on their position.
Some Confusion About Arrangements
While formal proceedings moved with system and complete adherence to program, the same cannot be said for other arrangements, which detracted markedly from the impressiveness of the event. So many spectators had, in one manner or another, gained access to the hall that the struggle for points of vantage at times approached the stage of a brawl, and the few officials intrusted with keeping order had the greatest difficulty in obtaining a semblance of it.
Cries of "Down in front!" which were probably never before heard at a gathering of similar importance, were addressed quite as often to officials of the Conference as to unofficial spectators. The stage for the ceremony was as crowded as the spectators' inclosures, giving a picture of crush and confusion. The plenipotentiaries and attach & eacute;s, instead of arriving in delegations, formally introduced by ushers, as had been planned, drifted in individually as at the earlier sessions.
Among the American witnesses of the signing were Mrs. Wilson, accompanied by Miss Wilson and Mrs. Lansing, Mrs. House, Mrs. Wallace, Mrs. Scott, and several other wives of delegates and officials; Herbert Hoover, Bernard M. Baruch; Vance McCormick, John W. Davis, Ambassador to Great Britain; Hugh C. Wallace, Ambassador to France; Henry Morgenthau, and about seventy of the more important attaches of the Peace Commission.
The close of the ceremony came so quickly and quietly that it was scarcely noticed until it was all over. M. Clemenceau arose almost unremarked, and in a voice almost lost amid the confusion and the hum of conversation, which had sprung up while the minor delegates were signing, declared the conference closed and asked the allied and associated delegates to remain in their places for a few minutes--this to permit the German plenipotentiaries to leave the hall and the building before the general exodus.
None arose as they filed out, accompanied by their suite of secretaries and interpreters, just as all the plenipotentiaries had kept their seats when Dr. M & uuml;ller and Dr. Bell entered. This was regarded as an answer to the action of Count von Brockdorff-Rantzau in reading his speech seated at the first meeting, but even more as an expression of sentiment at the German attitude toward the acceptance of peace.
Germans White-Faced as They Left
Beyond the demonstration for the allied leaders the main interest of the people about the palace was centred in the arrival and departure of the Germans. Few people witnessed the arrival of the Germans, but, despite the precautions of the soldiers, great crowds gathered about the rear of the palace when the envoys from Berlin left after signing the treaty.
There was no audible demonstration against the Germans, but there was a distinct current of hostility evident among the crowd which jammed close to the cars. The Germans were white-faced and quite apparently suffering strong emotion, but whether it was fear, anger, or chagrin one could only surmise.
The scene around the palace had been an animated one from an early hour. All day yesterday workmen and officials were busy in the chateau putting final touches on the arrangements, but the Hall of Mirrors was not yet ready. Much remained to be done at the last moment.
The peace table--a huge hollow rectangle with its open side facing the windows in the hall--was, however, in place, its tawny yellow coverings blending with the rich browns, blues, and yellows of the antique hangings of the room and the rugs covering the dais. The mellow tints of the historical paintings in the arched roof of the long hall completed the picture.
Last minute changes were made today in the program to expedite the signing of the treaty. Two additional tables were placed beside the large one within the Hall of Mirrors. One of the new tables held the Rhine Convention and the other the protocol, containing changes in and interpretations of the treaty. The arrangement of the tables thus enabled three persons to be engaged simultaneously in affixing their signatures.
Most of the seventy-two plenipotentiaries had to write their names only twice, once on the treaty and once on the protocol. The convention covering the left bank of the Rhine and the treaties regarding the protection of minorities in Poland was signed only by delegates of the great powers.
Because of the size of the treaty and the fragile seals it bore, the plan to present it for signing to Premier Clemenceau, President Wilson, and Premier Lloyd George was given up.
A box of old fashioned goose quills, sharpened by the expert pen pointer of the French Foreign Office, was placed on each of the three tables for the use of plenipotentiaries who desired to observe the traditional formalities.
Tables for the secretaries were placed inside the table for the plenipotentiaries.
Chairs for the plenipotentiaries were drawn up around three sides of the table, which formed an open rectangle fully eighty feet long on its longer side. A chair for M. Clemenceau, President of the Peace Conference, was placed in the centre of the table facing the windows, with those for President Wilson and Premier Lloyd George on the right and left hand, respectively. The German delegates' seats were at the side of the table nearest the entrance which they could take after all the others had been seated.
This arrangement was made to permit the Germans to leave after the signature of the treaty before the allied delegations, not waiting for the procession of allied delegates to the terrace to witness the playing of the fountains.
Crowds Gathered Early
This morning was cloudy, but just before midday the clouds began to break.
People began to gather early in the neighborhood of the palace. As the morning wore on the crowds kept increasing in size, but the vast spaces around the ch & acirc;teau swallowed them up at first.
By noon eleven regiments of French cavalry and infantry under command of General Brecard had taken positions along the approaches to the palace, while within the court on either side solid lines of infantry in horizon blue were drawn up at attention.
Hours before the time set for the ceremony an endless stream of automobiles began moving out of Paris up the cannon-lined hill of the Champs Elys & eacute;es, past the Arc de Triomphe, and out through the shady Bois de Boulogne, carrying plenipotentiaries, officials, and guests to the ceremony. The thoroughfare was kept clear by pickets, dragoons, and mounted gendarmes.
In the meantime thousands of Parisians were packing regular and special trains upon the lines leading to Versailles and contending with residents of the town itself for places in the park where the famous fountains would mark the end of the ceremony.
Long before the ceremony began a line of gendarmes was thrown across the approaches. While theoretically only persons bearing passes could get through this line, the crowds gradually filtered into and finally filled the square.
Within this square hundreds of fortunate persons had taken up positions at the windows of every wing of the palace.
The automobiles, bearing delegates and secretaries, had reserved for their use the Avenue du Paris, the broad boulevard leading direct to the ch & acirc;teau's court of honor, French soldiers being ranged along the highway on both sides.
At the end of the court a guard of honor was drawn up to present arms as the leading plenipotentiaries passed, this guard comprising a company of Republican Guards in brilliant uniform. The entrance for the delegates was by the marble stairway to the "Queen's Apartments" and the Hall of Peace, giving access thence to the Hall of Mirrors.
This formality was not prescribed for the Germans, who had a separate route of entry; coming through the park and gaining the marble stairway through the ground floor.

sábado, 25 de fevereiro de 2017

O Brasil e a Grande Guerra, impactos economicos, politicos e sociais - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Reprosuzo  

 

quinta-feira, 26 de junho de 2014

O Brasil e a Primeira Guerra Mundial no Observatorio da Imprensa - texto de Paulo Roberto de Almeida

O Alberto Dines, coordenador do Observatório da Imprensa, pediu-me para colaborar com um programa que está montando para ser transmitido pela TV Educativa em agosto, quando se comemoram (ugh!) os cem anos da Primeira Guerra Mundial. Eu deveria, em princípio, falar de seus impactos sobre o Brasil, nos aspectos econômicos, políticos, culturais, etc.
Para guiar minha participação, como sempre faço quando vou falar em público, na rádio ou na TV, mesmo que não leia absolutamente nada, eu costumo preparar um texto, que me permite organizar as ideias, separar os temas relevantes e sistematizar os argumentos.
Agora me dizem que eu tenho direito a 1 minuto e meio, já que o programa tem menos de uma hora, e são várias entrevistas, documentários, documentos, narrador, enfim, o normal costumeiro num programa desse tipo.
1,5 minuto não dá para falar grande coisa, por isso vou ter de selecionar.
Para não perder o texto já escrito, vou postar aqui, apenas para receber comentários dos interessados no assunto, e depois preparar algum artigo mais estruturado para publicação.
Portanto, é o que segue, escrito às pressas, sem intenção de ser artigo ou ensaio, apenas um texto-guia para servir no momento da gravação.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

A guerra de 1914-18 e o Brasil
Impactos imediatos, efeitos permanentes

Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Texto-suporte para gravação-vídeo de programa especial do
Observatório da Imprensa, sobre o impacto da Grande Guerra sobre o Brasil.

Sumário:
1. O que era o Brasil em 1914, e o que representou a guerra europeia?
2. Impactos imediatos do conflito iniciado em 1914
3. Impactos de mais longo prazo, efeitos permanentes

1. O que era o Brasil em 1914, e o que representou a guerra europeia?
Para abordar o impacto da guerra de 1914-1918 sobre o Brasil seria preciso ter bem presente o que era o Brasil em 1914, o que era a Europa, o que ela representava para o Brasil nessa época, e o que a guerra alterou no padrão de relacionamento, direta e indiretamente. Vamos resumir um complexo quadro político, econômico e diplomático.
O Brasil de cem anos atrás era o café, e o café era o Brasil. Toda a política econômica, aliás toda a base fiscal da República e dos seus estados mais importantes, assim como a própria diplomacia, giravam em volta das receitas de exportação, que compreendiam tanto ao próprio produto, e que faziam a riqueza dos barões do café, quanto os impostos de exportação, que afluíam ao orçamento de São Paulo e dos demais estados produtores. Dez anos antes, angustiados por um problema que eles próprios haviam criado, a superprodução de café, esses estados realizaram um esquema de valorização do produto, via retenção de estoques, no famoso Convênio de Taubaté, para cujo financiamento tivemos, pela primeira vez, a participação de bancos americanos. Os próprios banqueiros oficiais do Brasil, os Rothchilds de Londres, haviam se recusado a fazer parte do esquema, pois se tratava de uma típica manobra de oligopolistas contra os interesses dos consumidores. O Brasil dominava então quase quatro quintos da oferta mundial de café, e essa posição lhe assegurava a capacidade de fazer grandes manobras.
Mais tarde, em 1914, justamente, outros concorrentes tinham entrado nesse lucrativo mercado, a Colômbia, por exemplo, que sem poder competir em quantidade, começou a dedicar-se a melhorar a qualidade dos seus cafés. Na mesma época, o Brasil estava sendo processado em tribunais de Nova York, por praticas anti-concorrenciais na oferta de café, justamente. Foi também quando os mercados financeiros se fecharam repentinamente para o Brasil, com o estalar da guerra em agosto desse ano. O Brasil sempre dependeu do aporte de capitais estrangeiros, seja para financiar projetos de investimento em infraestrutura – que eram feitos sob regime de concessão, num esquema muito similar ao que viria a ser conhecido depois como PPP, ou seja, parcerias público-privadas, com garantia de juros de 6% ao ano –, seja para o financiamento do próprio Estado, que vivia permanentemente em déficit orçamentário.
O Brasil já tinha efetuado uma operação de funding-loan en 1898, isto é, um empréstimo de consolidação trocando os títulos das dívidas anteriores por novos títulos, e tinha conseguido fazer um novo pouco antes da guerra, e já não mais teve acesso ao mercado de capitais durante toda a duração do conflito europeu. Este representou um tremendo choque para a economia brasileira, pois os mercados europeus ainda eram importantes consumidores dos produtos primários de exportação, e os principais ofertantes de bens manufaturados, equipamentos e, sobretudo, capitais, ainda que os Estados Unidos já fossem o principal comprador do café brasileiro desde o final do século 19, e que suas empresas já tivessem começado a fazer investimentos diretos no Brasil.

2. Impactos imediatos do conflito iniciado em 1914
O espocar dos canhões de agosto representou, em primeiro lugar, uma interrupção nas linhas de comunicação marítimas, já que a Alemanha tinha construído para si uma marinha de guerra quase tão importante quanto a da Grã-Bretanha. Mais adiante a British Navy consegue desmantelar boa parte da frota germânica, mas de imediato, os transportes marítimos com os portos da Europa do norte foram bastante afetados pelas batalhas navais e pela ação dos surpreendentes submarinos alemães. Mas mesmo os estoques de café nos portos de Trieste, no Mediterrâneo, ficaram retidos, sob controle dos impérios centrais, neste caso da monarquia multinacional representada pela Áustria-Hungria, que seria desfeita com a derrota em 1918.
O produto mais importante de exportação do Brasil foi, assim bastante afetado pela perda de importantes mercados consumidores, o que aumentou tremendamente a dependência da demanda americana. Mas, os principais financiadores externos da jovem República ainda eram banqueiros europeus, agora comprometidos com a compra de títulos da dívida nacional de seus próprios países. A Alemanha também se tinha convertido num importante parceiro comercial do Brasil, além de ter iniciado um itinerário promissor com alguns investimentos diretos de suas empresas e casas comerciais. Outros mercados do velho continente também se viram engolfados no conflito, causando novos e continuados prejuízos ao Brasil.
O debate interno, sobre quem o Brasil deveria apoiar na guerra europeia, também foi importante, colocando importantes intelectuais em oposição, assim como tribunos e magistrados dos dois lados da cerca. O grande historiador João Capistrano de Abreu foi considerado um germanófilo, ao passo que Rui Barbosa insistiu na culpa moral da Alemanha, que tinha invadido e esquartejado a Bélgica, um país neutro. Uma das vítimas desse debate passional foi o próprio sucessor de Rio Branco, o chanceler Lauro Muller, considerado talvez menos isento por causa de sua ascendência alemã: ele renunciou ao cargo quando o Brasil fez a sua escolha. A maior parte da classe culta no Brasil, os membros da elite que adoravam gastar seus mil-réis nos cabarés de Paris, era evidentemente francófila, mas os alemães ajudaram a empurrar o Brasil para o lado da aliança franco-britânica ao atacarem navios comerciais brasileiros no Atlântico, quando o Brasil ainda era oficialmente neutro no conflito. Acabamos entrando modestamente na guerra, quase ao seu final, enviando um batalhão médico para a França.
No conjunto, a guerra representou imensas perdas comerciais e financeiras para o Brasil, que tentou se ressarcir, na conferência de paz de Paris, sem obter de verdade satisfação plena por suas reivindicações de obter compensação pela apropriação de navios alemães: os próprios países europeus se encarregaram de extorquir a Alemanha o máximo que puderam, e o caso do Brasil não era julgado realmente importante em face do conjunto de demandas dos países mais afetados pela guerra.

3. Impactos de mais longo prazo, efeitos permanentes
Os efeitos mais importantes da primeira guerra mundial, porém, não se limitaram aos terrenos militar e comercial, mas foram verdadeiramente impactantes no domínio econômico no seu sentido mais lato, provocando mudanças extremamente importante nas políticas econômica de todos os países, com consequências negativas para todo o mundo, e moderadamente positivas para o Brasil. Uma das primeiras consequências econômicas da guerra foi a cessação de pagamentos entre os inimigos, o que era lógico, com a cessação de toda relação comercial, confisco de bens e sequestro de ativos financeiros. Os países suspenderam o famoso padrão-ouro, ou seja, a garantia em metal das emissões de moeda papel; ainda que teoricamente em vigor, para alguns países, e a despeito de tentativas de seu restabelecimento ao final do conflito, ficou evidente que o lastro metálico tinha deixado de fato de ser um fator relevante nas políticas monetárias dos países. Todos os governos, depois de esgotadas as possibilidades de financiamento voluntário interno do esforço de guerra – via emissão de bônus da dívida pública, e até mediante empréstimos compulsórios – passaram a imprimir dinheiro sem maiores restrições, provocando a primeira grande onda inflacionária nas economias contemporâneas.
Mais impactante ainda foi a intervenção direta na atividade produtiva, não apenas desviando para a produção de guerra quase todas as plantas industriais que tivessem alguma relação com o aprovisionamento bélico, inclusive alimentar, de transportes e comunicações, mas também via controles de preços, restrições quantitativas, mobilizações laborais e vários outros expedientes intrusivos na vida do setor privado. Nacionalizações e estatizações foram conduzidas por simples medidas administrativas e a planificação nacional tornou-se praticamente compulsória. O mundo nunca mais seria o mesmo, e nesse tipo de economia de guerra estaria uma das bases dos regimes coletivistas que depois surgiriam na Europa, o fascismo e o comunismo.
O Brasil não foi tão afetado, naquele momento, pela estatização, mas ele também sofreu esses impactos de duas maneiras. De um lado, as dificuldades de aprovisionamento e de acesso a mercados levaram ao estímulo a novas atividades industriais no país, ainda que com todas as restrições existentes para a compra de bens de produção nos principais parceiros envolvidos no conflito. O mercado interno se torna mais relevante para a economia nacional. De outro lado, o nacionalismo econômico conhece um novo reforço nesse período. O Brasil já tinha uma lei do similar nacional desde o início da República, mas a guerra ajuda a consolidar a tendência introvertida, a vocação de autonomia nacional que já estavam presentes no pensamento de tribunos e de empresários. O Brasil encontrou naquela situação uma espécie de legitimidade acrescida para continuar praticando aquilo que sempre fez em sua história: a preferência nacional e o protecionismo comercial como políticas de Estado.
Este talvez seja o efeito mais importante, ainda que indireto, da guerra europeia sobre o pensamento econômico brasileiro, especialmente em sua vertente industrial. As gerações seguintes, sobretudo aquelas que ainda viveram a crise de 1929, e uma nova guerra mundial, dez anos depois, consolidaram uma orientação doutrinal em economia que também tendia para o nacionalismo econômico, uma política comercial defensiva, uma vocação industrial basicamente voltada para o mercado interno e uma tendência a ver no Estado um grande organizador das atividades produtivas, quase próxima do espírito coletivista que vigorou na Europa durante o entre-guerras e mais além.
Essencialmente, a geração de militares que passou a intervir de forma recorrente na vida política do país, ao final da Segunda Guerra, e que depois assumiria o poder no regime autoritário de 1964, era em grande medida formada por jovens cadetes que tinham feito estudos e depois academias militares no entre-guerras e na sua sequência imediata, e que tinham se acostumado exatamente com esse pensamento: um intenso nacionalismo econômico, a não dependência de fontes estrangeiras de aprovisionamento (sobretudo em combustíveis e em materiais sensíveis), a introversão produtiva, a ênfase no mercado interno, enfim, tudo aquilo que nos marcou tremendamente durante décadas e que ainda forma parte substancial do pensamento econômico brasileiro.
Tudo isso, finalmente, foi o resultado político e econômico da Primeira Guerra Mundial, que durante muito tempo ficou conhecida como a Grande Guerra. Os custos e as destruições da Segunda foram mais importantes, mas as alterações mais significativas nas políticas econômicas nacionais, no papel dos Estados na vida econômica, já tinham sido dados no decorrer da Primeira. O mundo mudou, a Europa começou sua longa trajetória para o declínio hegemônico, e o Brasil deu início ao seu igualmente longo itinerário de nacionalismo econômico e de intervencionismo estatal. Parece que ainda não nos libertamos desses dois traços relevantes do caráter nacional.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Hartford, 26 de junho de 2014.

2622. “A guerra de 1914-1918 e o Brasil: impactos imediatos, efeitos permanentes”, Hartford, 26 junho 2014, 5 p. Roteiro para gravação de um depoimento em vídeo para emissão especial do Observatório da Imprensa, sobre o impacto da Primeira Guerra Mundial sobre o Brasil e a região; depoimento por meio de webcam: padrão quicktime (.mov), full HD, 1920x1080 pixels, 16:9, NTSC, 29,97 fps; em torno de 2 minutos; envio por via web-transfer ou FTP.

terça-feira, 15 de novembro de 2016

This (other) day in History: armisticio da Primeira Guerra Mundial, 11/11/1918

Eu já tinha lido este This Day in History do Nuew York Times desde o dia 11, pela manhã, mas não tinha encontrado tempo de postar no mesmo dia, sexta-feira passada.
Mesmo atrasado, a data é importante, e nem se tratava de Primeira Guerra, e sim de Grande Guerra, e se imaginava que, por causa da enormidade da catástrofe, com perdas de vidas humanas aos milhões, morticínios inéditos, destruições maciças, não haveria nenhuma outra guerra dessa escala.
E no entanto, uma outra guerra global ocorreu, vinte anos depois daquela que seria a última, "la der des der", como passaram a se referir os franceses.
Aliás, desde 1919, um economista do Tesouro britânico, relativamente pouco conhecido até então, já havia alertado, em The Economic Consequences of the Peace (uma análise dos capítulos econômicos do tratado de Versalhes), que as reparações impostas à Alemanha seriam quase tão catastróficas quanto a própria guerra e que poderiam provocar uma nova guerra. Foi profeta involuntário.
O Brasil entrou na guerra tardiamente, apenas em meados de 1917, pelo envio de um batalhão médico que praticamente não atuou nas frentes de batalha.
Na volta da guerra, soldados trouxeram da Europa, para as Américas, a famosa "gripe espanhola", que matou quase tanta gente quanto as trincheiras da Europa.
Em todo caso, aqui vai a postagem daquele dia saudado em quase todos os países como o fim de uma noite sem fim...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Neste link: http://www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1111.html#article

On This Day
Read the full text of The Times article or other headlines from the day. Buy a Reproduction
Front Page Image

Armistice Signed, End Of The War! Berlin Seized By Revolutionists; New Chancellor Begs For Order



War Ends at 6 O'clock This Morning
The State Department in Washington Made the Announcement at 2:45 o'Clock
ARMISTICE WAS SIGNED IN FRANCE AT MIDNIGHT
Terms Include Withdrawal from Alsace-Lorraine, Disarming and Demobilization of Army and Navy, and Occupation of Strategic Naval and Military Points
By The Associated Press
RELATED HEADLINESOusted Kaiser Flees To Holland
Berlin Troops Join Revolt: Reds Shell Building in Which Officers Vainly Resist: Throngs Demand Republic: Revolutionary Flag on Royal Palace- Crown Prince's Palace Also Seized: General Strike Is Begun: Burgomaster and Police Submit- War Office New Under Socialist Control
Kaiser Fought Hindenburg's Call For Abdication; Failed To Get Army's Support In Keeping Throne
German Dynasties Being Wiped Out: King of Wuerttemberg Abdicates - Sovereign of Saxony to Follow Suit: Princes May Be Exiled: Socialists Are Demanding That Every Sovereign in the Empire Shall be Dethroned
More Warships Join The Reds: Four Dreadnoughts in Kiel Harbor Espouse the Revolutionary Cause: Guardships Also Go Over:
Washington, Monday, Nov. 11, 2:48 A.M.--The armistice between Germany, on the one hand, and the allied Governments and the United States, on the other, has been signed.
The State Department announced at 2:45 o'clock this morning that Germany had signed.
The department's announcement simply said: "The armistice has been signed."
The world war will end this morning at 6 o'clock, Washington time, 11 o'clock Paris time.
The armistice was signed by the German representatives at midnight.
This announcement was made by the State Department at 2:50 o'clock this morning.
The announcement was made verbally by an official of the State Department in this form:
"The armistice has been signed. It was signed at 5 o'clock A.M., Paris time, [midnight, New York time,] and hostilities will cease at 11 o'clock this morning, Paris time, [6 o'clock, New York time.]
The terms of the armistice, it was announced, will not be made public until later. Military men here, however, regard it as certain that they include:
Immediate retirement of the German military forces from France, Belgium, and Alsace- Lorraine.
Disarming and demobilization of the German armies.
Occupation by the allied and American forces of such strategic points in Germany as will make impossible a renewal of hostilities.
Delivery of part of the German High Seas Fleet and a certain number of submarines to the allied and American naval forces.
Disarmament of all other German warships under supervision of the allied and American Navies, which will guard them.
Occupation of the principal German naval bases by sea forces of the victorious nations.
Release of allied and American soldiers, sailors, and civilians held prisoners in Germany without such reciprocal action by the associated Governments.
There was no information as to the circumstances under which the armistice was signed, but since the German courier did not reach German military headquarters until 10 o'clock yesterday morning, French time, it was generally assumed here that the German envoys within the French lines had been instructed by wireless to sign the terms.
Forty-seven hours had been required for the courier to reach the German headquarters, and unquestionably several hours were necessary for the examination of the terms and a decision.
It was regarded as possible, however, that the decision may have been made at Berlin and instructions transmitted from there by the new German Government.
Germany had until 11 o'clock this morning, French time, (6 o'clock, Washington time,) to accept. So hostilities will end at the hour set by Marshal Foch for a decision by Germany for peace or for continuation of the war.
The momentous news that the armistice had been signed was telephoned to the White House for transmission to the President a few minutes before it was given to the newspaper correspondents.
Later it was said that there would be no statement from the White House at this time.
Socialist Chancellor Appeals to All Germans To Help Him Save Fatherland from Anarchy
Berne, Nov. 10, (Associated Press)--In an address to the people, the new German Chancellor, Friedrich Ebert, says:
Citizens: The ex-Chancellor, Prince Max of Baden, in agreement with all the Secretaries of State, has handed over to me the task of liquidating his affairs as Chancellor. I am on the point of forming a new Government in accord with the various parties, and will keep public opinion freely informed of the course of events.
The new Government will be a Government of the people. It must make every effort to secure in the quickest possible time peace for the German people and consolidate the liberty which they have won.
The new Government has taken charge of the administration, to preserve the German people from civil war and famine and to accomplish their legitimate claim to autonomy. The Government can solve this problem only if all the officials in town and country will help.
I know it will be difficult for some to work with the new men who have taken charge of the empire, but I appeal to their love of the people. Lack of organization would in this heavy time mean anarchy in Germany and the surrender of the country to tremendous misery. Therefore, help your native country with fearless, indefatigable work for the future, every one at his post.
I demand every one's support in the hard task awaiting us. You know how seriously the war has menaced the provisioning of the people, which is the first condition of the people's existence. The political transformation should not trouble the people. The food supply is the first duty of all, whether in town or country, and they should not embarrass, but rather aid, the production of food supplies and their transport to the towns.
Food shortage signifies pillage and robbery, with great misery. The poorest will suffer the most, and the industrial worker will be affected hardest. All who illicitly lay hands on food supplies or other supplies of prime necessity or the means of transport necessary for their distribution will be guilty in the highest degree toward the community.
I ask you immediately to leave the streets and remain orderly and calm.
Copenhagen, Nov. 10--The new Berlin Government, according to a Wolff Bureau dispatch, has issued the following proclamation:
Fellow-Citizens: This day the people's deliverance has been fulfilled. The Social Democratic Party has undertaken to form a Government. It has invited the Independent Socialist Party to enter the Government with equal rights.

quinta-feira, 7 de agosto de 2014

Primeira Guerra Mundial: os 100 anos da guerra que não acabou - Alberto Dines (Observatório da Imprensa)

Um programa de que participei, minimamente é verdade, mas para o qual eu já tinha escrito um texto aqui postado. Este aqui:  "A guerra de 1914-1918 e o Brasil: impactos imediatos, efeitos permanentes"; publicado em Mundorama (28/07/2014; link: http://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2014/07/a-primeira-guerra-mundial-e-o-brasil.html); postado duas vezes neste Diplomatizzando (links: http://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2014/06/o-brasil-e-primeira-guerra-mundial-no.html e http://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2014/07/a-primeira-guerra-mundial-e-o-brasil.html).
Vejam o programa, dirigido pelo sempre competente Alberto Dines, aliás autor de uma biografia maravilhosa de Stefan Zweig (Morte no Paraíso), escritor austríaco, que se suicidou em Petrópolis, tendo antes escrito suas magníficas memórias sobre o período anterior à guerra (O Mundo de Ontem) e o panegírico Brasil: o país do futuro (que ficou mais pelo título do que pelo conteúdo).
Emissão do Observatório da Imprensa: “Os 100 anos da guerra que não acabou”, com Alberto Dines (Programa n. 736, 5/08/2014; link: http://www.observatoriodaimprensa.com.br/videos/view/os_100_anos_da_guerra_que_nao_acabou). 
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 
OI NA TV

PRIMEIRA GRANDE GUERRA

Os 100 anos da guerra que não acabou

Alberto Dines | Programa nº 736 | 05/08/2014 | 0 comentários
 

Ela foi chamada de belle époque, também de dourada era da segurança; os mais céticos preferem classificar o período como o alegre apocalipse. A exposição mundial de Paris, em 1900, exibiu as maravilhas da eletricidade com a iluminação da Torre Eiffel. As novas tecnologias despertaram novas energias e fortíssimas ambições. O avião, os transatlânticos, automóveis, o metrô, o cinema, o rádio e os avanços da medicina simbolizavam um progresso, uma paz que, imaginava-se, jamais seria revertida. Nos subterrâneos deste mundo excitante e refinado um vulcão roncava, emitia avisos que poucos queriam escutar.
Alfred Nobel, o inventor da dinamite, primeira arma de destruição em massa, captou esses sinais, assumiu-se como pacifista e no testamento deixou recursos para a concessão de cinco prêmios anuais, um deles o Nobel da Paz, concedido pela primeira vez em 1901.
Se os esforços pela paz precisavam ser estimulados e premiados, significa que a guerra era uma ameaça concreta, assustadora. Conflitos bélicos não acontecem por acaso. Os contenciosos acendem diversos pavios, até que um deles chega ao barril de pólvora mais próximo.
O que aconteceu no verão europeu de 1914 vinha sendo articulado há décadas. A inauguração do Canal de Suez, em 1869, abalou em definitivo o império otomano. O conflito franco-prussiano, de 1870, tirou da França uma rica fatia de território. O paroxismo ideológico deslanchado pelo caso Dreyfus, em 1894, forneceu a munição.
Mas foi a crença de que novas tecnologias são suficientes para garantir a paz e o progresso o principal equívoco cometido nesse xadrez.
A serviço do rancor, os milagres da ciência convertem-se em pesadelo.
 

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