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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org.

Mostrando postagens com marcador The Washington Post. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador The Washington Post. Mostrar todas as postagens

segunda-feira, 31 de dezembro de 2018

Um presidente mentiroso que quebra o seu próprio recorde de mentiras: quem seria?

Bem, pelo menos começaremos o ano com o presidente contado 0 km de mentiras. Vamos seguir para fazer como o Washington Post em relação ao super-hiper-mega mentiroso do Trump: ele consegue contar 15 mentiras POR DIA.
Nunca antes na história daquele país, o cargo de presidente tinha descido tão baixo na escala da mentira, das falcatruas, das manipulações, dos exageros, das trapaças deliberadas, um caso patológico, sem nenhuma dúvida.
Vamos criar um mentirômetro similar para o caso do Brasil...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Tubarão, 31/12/2018

A year of unprecedented deception: Trump averaged 15 false claims a day in 2018

The Washington Post, December 31, 2018

President Trump’s year of lies, false statements and misleading claims started with some morning tweets.
Over a couple of hours on Jan. 2, Trump made false claims about three of his favorite targets — Iranthe New York Times and Hillary Clinton. He also took credit for the “best and safest year on record” for commercial aviation, even though there had been no commercial plane crashes in the United States since 2009 and, in any case, the president has little to do with ensuring the safety of commercial aviation.
The fusillade of tweets was the start of a year of unprecedented deception during which Trump became increasingly unmoored from the truth. When 2018 began, the president had made 1,989 false and misleading claims, according to The Fact Checker’s database, which tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president. By the end of the year, Trump had accumulated more than 7,600 untruths during his presidency — averaging more than 15 erroneous claims a day during 2018, almost triple the rate from the year before.
Even as Trump’s fact-free statements proliferate, there is growing evidence that his approach is failing.
Fewer than 3 in 10 Americans believe many of his most-common false statements, according to a Fact Checker poll conducted this month. Only among a pool of strong Trump approvers — about 1 in 6 adults in the survey — did large majorities accept several, though not all, of his falsehoods as true.
Similarly, a November Quinnipiac poll found 58 percent of voters saying Trump wasn’t honest, compared with just 36 percent who said he was honest. The same poll found 50 percent saying he is “less honest” than most previous presidents, tying his own record for the highest share of registered voters saying so in Quinnipiac polling.
“When before have we seen a president so indifferent to the distinction between truth and falsehood, or so eager to blur that distinction?” presidential historian Michael R. Beschloss said of Trump in 2018.
Beschloss noted that the U.S. Constitution set very few guidelines in this regard because the expectation was that the first president would be George Washington and he would set the tone for the office. “What is it that schoolchildren are taught about George Washington? That he never told a lie,” the historian said. “That is a bedrock expectation of a president by Americans.”
President Trump speaks at a roundtable in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Dec. 18, 2018 in Washington. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
Trump began 2018 on a similar pace as last year. Through May, he generally averaged about 200 to 250 false claims a month. But his rate suddenly exploded in June, when he topped 500 falsehoods, as he appeared to shift to campaign mode. He uttered almost 500 more in both July and August, almost 600 in September, more than 1,200 in October and almost 900 in November. In December, Trump drifted back to the mid-200s.
Trump’s midsummer acceleration came as the White House stopped having regular press briefings and the primary voice in the administration was Trump, who met repeatedly with reporters, held events, staged rallies and tweeted constantly.
Trump is among the more loquacious of recent presidents, according to Martha Kumar, professor emerita at Towson University, who has kept track of every presidential interaction with the media, dating to Ronald Reagan. Through Dec. 20, Trump held 323 short question-and-answer sessions with reporters, second only to Bill Clinton through the first 23 months, and granted 196 interviews, second to Barack Obama.
More than a quarter of Trump’s claims were made during campaign rallies. On Nov. 5, the day before the midterm elections, for instance, Trump held three rallies, yielding a total of 139 false or misleading claims. A review of every statement made by Trump at two of his earlier 2018 rallies found that he exaggerated or made up at least 70 percent of his assertions.
Almost as many false claims came during remarks at press events, and about 17 percent were the result of his itchy Twitter finger.
The president misled Americans about issues big and small. He told lies about payments that his now-convicted attorney says Trump authorized to silence women alleging affairs with him. He routinely exaggerates his accomplishments, such as claiming that he passed the biggest tax cut everpresided over the best economy in historyscored massive deals for jobs with Saudi Arabia and all but solved the North Korea nuclear crisis.
He attacks his perceived enemies with abandon, falsely accusing Clinton of colluding with the Russiansformer FBI Director James B. Comey of leaking classified information and Democrats of seeking to let undocumented immigrants swamp the U.S. borders.
The president often makes statements that are disconnected from his policies. He said his administration did not have a family separation policy on the border, when it did. Then he said the policy was required because of existing laws, when it was not.
The president also simply invents faux facts. He repeatedly said U.S. Steel is building six to eight new steel plants, but that’s not true. He said that as president, Obama gave citizenship to 2,500 Iranians during the nuclear-deal negotiations, but that’s false. Over and over, Trump claimed that the Uzbekistan-born man who in 2017 was accused of killing eight people with a pickup truck in New York brought two dozen relatives to the United States through “chain migration.” The real number is zero.
President Trump answers questions as he walks to board Marine One at the White House on Nov. 20, 2018. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
In one of his more preposterous statements of 2018, Trump labeled the Palm Beach Post as “fake news” for blaming him for traffic jams across the nation — when an article about the effect of low gas prices on driving habits never mentioned his name.
Sometimes, Trump simply attempts to create his own reality.
When leaders attending the U.N. General Assembly burst into laughter when Trump uttered a favorite false claim — that his administration had accomplished more in less than two years than “almost any administration in the history of our country” — the president was visibly startled and remarked that he “didn’t expect that reaction.” But then he later falsely insisted to reporters that the boast “was meant to get some laughter.”
In an October interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump emphatically denied he had imposed many tariffs. “I mean, other than some tariffs on steel — which is actually small, what do we have? . . . Where do we have tariffs? We don’t have tariffs anywhere,” he insisted. The newspaper responded by printing a list of $305 billion worth of tariffs on many types of U.S. imports.
Trump exaggerates when the facts are on his side.
He routinely touts a job-growth number that dates from his election, not when he took office, thus inflating it by 600,000 jobs. And although there’s no question Trump can draw supporters to his rallies by the thousands, he often claims pumped-up numbers that have no basis in fact. At a Tampa rally, he declared that “thousands of people” who could not get in were watching outside on a “tremendous movie screen.” Neither a crowd of that size nor the movie screen existed.
The president even includes references to The Fact Checker in his dubious remarks.
On Oct. 18, in Missoula, Mont., Trump falsely said that no one challenges his description of the Democrats as the party of crime. “Democrats have become the party of crime. It’s true. Who would believe you could say that and nobody even challenges it. Nobody’s ever challenged it,” he said.
But then he had an unusual moment of doubt. “Maybe they have. Who knows? I have to always say that, because then they’ll say they did actually challenge it, and they’ll put like — then they’ll say he gets a Pinocchio.”

Meg Kelly and Salvador Rizzo contributed to this report.

sexta-feira, 21 de dezembro de 2018

The Washington Post: o que acontece nos EUA? Afundam?

Inacreditável: abro o Washington Post desta sexta-feira 21/12, e todas as notícias e comentários são, sem exceção, pessimistas, negativas, depressivas para os EUA e o mundo, isso tudo em virtude de um presidente inepto, confuso, obsessivo com certas coisas – o tal muro idiota, por exemplo, que ele jurava que os mexicanos iriam pagar por ele – e incapaz de trazer estabilidade para um país já tomado pelo temor de uma nova recessão, e trazer conforto e tranquilidade para os parceiros estrangeiros, que nunca tinham visto um presidente agressivo com os amigos e concessivo com os "inimigos".
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Mattis resigns after clash with Trump over Syria withdrawal 
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s surprise resignation came a day after President Trump overruled his advisers, including Mattis, and shocked American allies by announcing the pullout. 
'A morning of alarm’: Mattis departure sends shock waves abroad
Overseas, the former marine was viewed as a steady hand as America's role in the world was thrown into question.
Trump orders major military withdrawal from Afghanistan
The president has directed the Pentagon to devise a plan to withdraw nearly half of the 14,000 troops deployed there.
‘A sad day for America’: Washington fears a Trump unchecked by Mattis
The defense secretary’s resignation letter seems to question the president’s fitness as commander in chief.
Isolated and under pressure, Trump sets government in crisis
The president abruptly moved to try to deliver on campaign promises to build a border wall and bring troops home.
Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria marks a win for Putin
The move allows the Russian leader to consolidate gains for Assad in Syria and demonstrates the fragility of the Western alliance.
Government on track for shutdown as Trump threatens to veto Senate deal, demanding border-wall funds
House Republicans responded to the threat by passing a bill to keep the government funded until February and meet President Trump’s demand to fund a border wall, but Senate Democrats oppose funding the wall and have the votes to block the House measure.
Federal agencies prepare to cease operations Friday night
About a quarter of the government, including the State, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury and Housing and Urban Development departments, would shut down. More than 380,000 federal workers would be sent home without pay.
As stocks drop, Trump fears he’s losing his best argument for reelection
President Trump has pointed to market gains as proof that his economic policies are working and the country is thriving under his leadership. Now a favored talking point is crumbling.
U.S. stocks clobbered amid White House drama over shutdown
The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index are on pace for their worst quarter since 2011. The Nasdaq composite dropped into bear market territory.

William Barr’s memo on the Mueller probe is baseless and dangerous
With Mattis out, we’re in uncharted territory
Trump is now forging foreign policy on his own. Where will he take us?
Has the GOP tax cut delivered? Yes — and the tooth fairy was here just last night!
Is arming teachers a good idea? Depends on where you live.
Does the global fight against climate change stand a chance without the U.S.?

More News
End of Lean In: How Sheryl Sandberg’s message of empowerment unraveled
The Facebook executive’s long-cultivated image as a righteous feminist icon and relatable role model is in shambles.
Justice Dept. ethics official told Whitaker’s team he should recuse from Mueller probe
Earlier, a department official had said the ethics office advised acting attorney general Matthew Whitaker he need not step aside. Hours later, people familiar with the situation disclosed that a senior ethics official told Whitaker advisers that he should recuse to avoid the appearance of a conflict.
D.C. Council member Jack Evans received stock just before pushing legislation that would benefit company
A consulting firm created by Evans received 200,000 shares in Digi Outdoor Media; Evans says he returned the “stock certificate.”
Critic’s Notebook 
Michelle Obama can wear whatever she wants now. And she wants sparkly thigh-high boots.
A former first lady who once chafed at being called a celebrity is clearly now embracing it.
Unions expand in digital newsrooms
A wave of union-organizing has swept over the industry over the past three years as journalists working for the once-scrappy start-ups and venture-capital darlings of the Internet have banded together to negotiate collectively.
Ranking the most stressful airports during the holidays
A travel insurance company analyzed the flight cancellation rate at different airports.
Retropolis | The Past, Rediscovered 
NASA’s first moonshot was a bold and terrifying improvisation with Apollo 8
No human had gone past low Earth orbit before Frank Borman, James Lovell, Jr. and Bill Anders blasted off 50 years ago.
Post Reports | Listen Now 
U.S. troops to leave Syria. Now what?
What it means for the U.S. to pull forces out of Syria. The fashion industry’s mixed messages to plus-size women. Plus, when Congress weighed a journey to the center of Earth.

segunda-feira, 17 de dezembro de 2018

O mundo segundo Washington: declínio de um imperio - The Washington Post

December 17, 2018
 Here’s how Haass sets up his history lesson on the Concert of Europe
If the end of every order is inevitable, the timing and the manner of its ending are not. Nor is what comes in its wake. Orders tend to expire in a prolonged deterioration rather than a sudden collapse. And just as maintaining the order depends on effective statecraft and effective action, good policy and proactive diplomacy can help determine how that deterioration unfolds and what it brings. Yet for that to happen, something else must come first: recognition that the old order is never coming back and that efforts to resurrect it will be in vain. As with any ending, acceptance must come before one can move on.
"In the search for parallels to today’s world, scholars and practitioners have looked as far afield as ancient Greece, where the rise of a new power resulted in war between Athens and Sparta, and the period after World War I, when an isolationist United States and much of Europe sat on their hands as Germany and Japan ignored agreements and invaded their neighbors. But the more illuminating parallel to the present is the Concert of Europe in the nineteenth century, the most important and successful effort to build and sustain world order until our own time. From 1815 until the outbreak of World War I a century later, the order established at the Congress of Vienna defined many international relationships and set (even if it often failed to enforce) basic rules for international conduct. It provides a model of how to collectively manage security in a multipolar world.
"That order’s demise and what followed offer instructive lessons for today—and an urgent warning. Just because an order is in irreversible decline does not mean that chaos or calamity is inevitable. But if the deterioration is managed poorly, catastrophe could well follow.”
• A report prepared for the Senate that provides the most sweeping analysis yet of Russia’s disinformation campaign around the 2016 election found the operation used every major social media platform to deliver words, images and videos tailored to voters’ interests to help elect President Trump — and worked even harder to support him while in office, report my colleagues:
“The report, a draft of which was obtained by The Washington Post, is the first to study the millions of posts provided by major technology firms to the Senate Intelligence Committee, led by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), its chairman, and Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), its ranking Democrat. The bipartisan panel hasn’t said if it endorses the findings. It plans to release it publicly along with another study later this week.
"The research — by Oxford University’s Computational Propaganda Project and Graphika, a network analysis firm — offers new details on how Russians working at the Internet Research Agency, which U.S. officials have charged with criminal offenses for meddling in the 2016 campaign, sliced Americans into key interest groups for targeted messaging. These efforts shifted over time, peaking at key political moments, such as presidential debates or party conventions, the report found.”
• At a time when Congress is trying to challenge Trump’s pursuit of war in Yemen, my colleague Liz Sly points in a lengthy piece to a hidden war that the president has advanced in Syria:
“The commitment is small, a few thousand troops who were first sent to Syria three years ago to help the Syrian Kurds fight the Islamic State. President Trump indicated in March that the troops would be brought home once the battle is won, and the latest military push to eject the group from its final pocket of territory recently got underway.
"In September, however, the administration switched course, saying the troops will stay in Syria pending an overall settlement to the Syrian war and with a new mission: to act as a bulwark against Iran’s expanding influence.
"That decision puts U.S. troops in overall control, perhaps indefinitely, of an area comprising nearly a third of Syria, a vast expanse of mostly desert terrain roughly the size of Louisiana.
"The Pentagon does not say how many troops are there. Officially, they number 503, but earlier this year an official let slip that the true number may be closer to 4,000. Most are Special Operations forces, and their footprint is light. Their vehicles and convoys rumble by from time to time along the empty desert roads, but it is rare to see U.S. soldiers in towns and cities.
"The new mission raises new questions, about the role they will play and whether their presence will risk becoming a magnet for regional conflict and insurgency.”
• An investigation by the New York Times digs up damning evidence of how the powerful U.S. consulting firm McKinsey abets anti-democratic regimes and practices. It kicks off its story at a desert retreat for the company’s associates in China:
“For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.
"One of McKinsey’s state-owned clients has even helped build China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea, a major point of military tension with the United States.
"It turns out that McKinsey’s role in China is just one example of its extensive — and sometimes contentious — work around the world, according to an investigation by The New York Times that included interviews with 40 current and former McKinsey employees, as well as dozens of their clients.
"At a time when democracies and their basic values are increasingly under attack, the iconic American company has helped raise the stature of authoritarian and corrupt governments across the globe, sometimes in ways that counter American interests.”