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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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Mostrando postagens com marcador Brookings Institution. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Brookings Institution. Mostrar todas as postagens

terça-feira, 17 de fevereiro de 2015

Quer acabar com a pobreza? Educacao, emprego e casamento - Brookings

Sem educação, sem qualificação para o mercado de trabalho (e portanto sem emprego),  filhos de mãe solteira, ou famílias fragmentadas são as receitas inversas para a perpetuação (intergeracional) da pobreza. Simples assim.
Ou se pretende manter um exército de assistidos por mais de uma geração, como já está ocorrendo no Brasil, em que jovens que já estavam no Bolsa Família começam a ter filhos também dependentes da assistência pública.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Challenges Facing Low-Income Individuals and Families
Thanks for inviting me to testify on the important topic of challenges facing low-income families. It is an honor to testify before the Human Resources Subcommittee. I applaud your purposes and hope that I can help the Subcommittee members understand our current circumstances regarding work, benefits, and poverty by single mothers a little better.
For well over a decade, my Brookings colleague Isabel Sawhill, a Democrat and former member of the Clinton administration, and I have been analyzing data and writing about the factors that influence both poverty rates and economic mobility.[i] We long ago concluded that education, work, and marriage are major keys to reducing poverty and increasing economic opportunity. We also emphasize the role of personal responsibility in all three of these vital components of building a path to the American Dream. But government programs to help low-income American parents escape poverty and build opportunity for themselves and their children are also important.
In today’s hearing, the Subcommittee is taking testimony about marriage and work, two of these three keys to reducing poverty and increasing opportunity. Brad Wilcox from the University of Virginia will discuss the decline of married-couple families, the explosion of births outside marriage, and the consequent increase in the number of the nation’s children being reared by single (and often never-married) mothers. The increase in the proportion of children in female-headed families contributes to substantial increases in poverty by virtue of the fact that poverty rates in female-headed families are four to five times as great as poverty rates in married-couple families.[ii] If the share of the nation’s children in female-headed families continues to increase as it has been doing for four decades, policies to reduce poverty will be fighting an uphill battle because the rising rates of single-parent families will exert strong upward pressure on the poverty rate.[iii] But perhaps of even greater consequence, children reared in single-parent families are more likely to drop out of school, more likely to be arrested, less likely to go to college, more likely to be involved in a nonmarital birth, and more likely to be idle (not in school, not employed) than children from married-couple families.[iv] In this way, a disproportionate number of children from single-parent families carry poverty into the next generation and thereby minimize intergenerational mobility.
So far public and nongovernmental programs have not been able to reverse falling marriage rates or rising nonmarital birth rates, but there is a lot we have done and can do to increase work rates, especially the work rates of low-income mothers. The goal of my testimony today is to explain the government policies that have been adopted in recent decades to increase work rates and subsidize earnings, which in turn have led to substantial declines in poverty.
I make two points and a small number of recommendations. The first point is that the employment of low-income single mothers has increased over the two decades, in large part because of work requirements in federal programs, especially Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). The recessions of 2001 and 2007-2009 caused the employment rate of single mothers to fall (as well as nearly every other demographic group), but after both recessions work rates began to rise again.
The second point is that the work-based safety net is an effective way to boost the income of working families with children that would be poor without the work supports. In my view, this combination of work requirements and work supports is the most successful approach the nation has yet developed to fight poverty in single-parent families with children. Here’s the essence of the policy approach: first, encourage or cajole single mothers to work by establishing work requirements in federal welfare programs; second, subsidize the earnings of low-income workers, both to increase their work incentive and to help them escape poverty. The primary work-based safety-net programs are the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), the Additional Child Tax Credit, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), child care, and Medicaid.


[i] Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill, Work and Marriage: The Way to End Poverty and Welfare (Washington: Brookings Institution, 2003); Haskins and Sawhill, Creating an Opportunity Society (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2009)
[ii] Ron Haskins, “The Family is Here to Stay,” Future of Children 25, no. 2 (forthcoming); Kaye Hymowitz, Jason S. Carroll, W. Bradford Wilcox, and Kelleen Kaye, Knot Yet: The Benefits and Costs of Delayed Marriage in America (Charlottesville, VA: The National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, and The Relate Institute, 2013). For an explanation of the central role of family structure in the continuing black-white income gap, see Deirdra Bloome, “Racial Inequality Trends and the Intergenerational Persistence of Income and Family Structure,” American Sociological Review 79 (December 2014): 1196-1225.
[iii] Maria Cancian and Ron Haskins, “Changes in Family Composition: Implications for Income, Poverty, and Public Policy,” ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 654 (2014): 31-47.
[iv] Sara McLanahan, Laura Tach, and Daniel Schneider, “The Causal Effect of Father Absence,” Annual Review of Sociology 29 (2013): 399-427.

quinta-feira, 25 de dezembro de 2014

Brookings: Country-by-Country of G-20 - 2014

  • G-20 Member Countries
  • EU Member Countries
  • EU & G-20 Member Countries



Link

On November 15-16, world leaders gathered in Brisbane, Australia for the ninth G-20 summit. Leaders aimed to increase world GDP and chart a pathway to sustainable, inclusive growth and resilience through both short and medium-term actions. In this report, experts from Brookings and around the world address interrelated debates about growth, convergence and income distribution, three key elements that are likely to shape policy debates beyond the Brisbane summit.
Download the full Think Tank 20 report, or access individual chapters at the links below:

Introduction
Africa
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Is Africa Growth at a Historical Crossroads to Convergence?
Amadou Sy
Impressive growth among sub-Saharan African countries since the early 1990s has led to an unprecedented optimism about the continent’s economic prospects. Africa now finds itself at a historical crossroads, which could lead to convergence with emerging markets, and ultimately with advanced economies.

SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa: Perspectives on Divergence and Convergence
Haroon Bhorat and Alan Hirsch
South Africa is on a highly unequal, slow growth economic development path which, if not effectively addressed, will perpetuate the current course of long-run economic divergence.

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Asia
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Economic Growth in Asia: Performance and Prospects
Montek Ahluwalia
The share of Asian EMDEs in global GDP could reach 40 percent by 2030, substantially increasing the region's role in the global economy and requiring significant structural changes in the formal institutions of global governance.

AUSTRALIA
Australia, Emerging Asia and Global Cooperation
Peter Drysdale
Now that the immediate threat of the global financial crisis has receded, Asia’s ambitions in the global community remain centered on economic and social transformation through sustainable development. On both fronts, the G-20 has a big and ongoing task and Asian G-20 members have a central role and interest.

CHINA
A New Normal, but with Robust Growth: China’s Growth Prospects in the Next 10 Years
Yang Yao
China's economy is rebalancing, helping it to improve its income distribution. But while robust growth in China can compensate for some of the losses left by poor-performing advanced economies, the world may have to wait until China enjoys much higher per-capita income to expect the country to become a major consumer goods importer.

INDIA
Secular Stagnation: Can India Buck the Trend?
Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur
With the right policy measures, India can buck the trend towards growth slowdowns now appearing in advanced and developing countries.

INDONESIA
Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution: A View from Indonesia
Maria Monica Wihardja
Indonesia faces specific challenges in maintaining high growth and avoiding the middle-income trap, but it can learn from the often painful structural reforms undertaken in other emerging economies.

JAPAN
Defining Exit from Deflation
Yoshio Okubo
Weaknesses in the global economy and uncertain prospects for the future have prompted a new debate on the possibility of secular stagnation or prolonged deflation in advanced economies, often citing Japan as an example. This note focuses on the recent economic developments in Japan and considers potential pitfalls that policymakers in advanced economies may face in the post-crisis environment.

KOREA
From Rapid, Shared Growth to Slow, Unshared Growth?
Wonhyuk Lim
Korea is a prime example of a country that was able to achieve rapid, shared growth, but is now facing the challenge of what appears to be slow, unshared growth. It provides a number of lessons for maturing economies that are going through a midlife crisis of their own.

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Europe
EUROPEAN UNION
How Can Europe Avoid Secular Stagnation?
Guntram Wolff
Three central policy measures can help deal with stagnation in the eurozone.

FRANCE
Growth, Convergence and Social Conditions: Where is Europe Headed?
Jacques Mistral
The eurozone, having successfully emerged from the acute phase of its debt crisis, is again entering unchartered waters. There is no region in the world economy where the three debates about growth, convergence and social conditions are more closely linked. This paper explores this new horizon and finds reason for hope.

GERMANY
Quantitative Easing and Deflation in a Creditor Economy
Daniel Gros
Northern European excess savings constitute a serious issue for a global economy still short of demand. This issue should be on the agenda of the G-20, not just Europe’s, but it is unlikely that it will be resolved any time soon.

ITALY
Sluggish Growth in the Eurozone: The Long Journey Ahead
Paolo Guerrieri
To exit from the crisis, the eurozone needs new policies and more integration, but national interests still trump collective interests. A deepening of the eurozone crisis, if not properly addressed, could turn into a dramatic global crisis.

RUSSIA
Russia: Prospects for Growth and Convergence
Sergey Drobyshevsky
Changes in commodity prices, limits to potential growth and consumer demand issues all point to a low probability of fast and stable growth in the medium term, but the Russian economy is far from doomed.

UNITED KINGDOM
Convergence Determines Governance — Within and Without
Danny Quah
As economists debate the dynamics of growth and convergence to understand if the world's poor are catching up to the rich, historians of foreign policy and international relations scholars are asking what the implications for global power shifts, and for the legitimacy of different forms of world leadership, will be.

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Latin America
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Latin America’s Decade of Development-less Growth
Ernesto Talvi
Latin America's decade of uninterrupted high growth rates put an end to a quarter of a century of relative decline in income per capita levels vis-à-vis advanced economies. But with the extremely favorable external conditions already behind us, the region is expected to grow at mediocre rates of around 2 percent in per capita terms for the foreseeable future, making the dream of convergence and development unlikely to be realized any time soon.

ARGENTINA
Argentina: A Case of “Reverse Convergence”
Miguel Kiguel
Argentina again finds itself in a period of high volatility and recession, but there may be more cause for optimism this time around than in previous crises.

BRAZIL
Demography, Technology, and All Other Things Considered
Claudio Frischtak
Demographic and technological changes will have significant implications for growth globally, and could make for a steeper ascent for Brazil and other emerging and developing economies.

MEXICO
The Challenges to Achieving Sustainable Growth in Latin America
Guillermo Ortiz
To enable the region to escape from the “middle-income trap,” Latin America needs to maintain the macroeconomic and financial stability achieved over the decade and press ahead on an important structural reform agenda.

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The Middle East
REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Growth and Convergence in the Arab Region
Hafez Ghanem
More than three years after the revolutions the euphoria with which of the 2010-11 revolutions were greeted, the Arab transition to democracy appears to be sinking in the desert’s quicksand, and economies of the five so-called Arab countries in transition are faring little better. But faster growth and more rapid convergence to the OECD and the emerging economies can be achieved through more investment in inclusive institutions, and physical and human capital.

SAUDI ARABIA
Economic Convergence in Saudi Arabia
Ali Al-Sadiq
Despite rapid economic growth over the last few decades, Saudi real incomes per capita have not converged to those of advanced economies. Failure to diversify production from the capital-intensive hydrocarbon sector to employment-generating non-oil sectors, coupled with high population growth and a delay in removing restrictions on foreign investment, has exacerbated income disparities. An economic transformation and diversification strategy that targets employment-generating economic activities will be key to achieving convergence with advanced economies.

TURKEY
The Growth Debate Redux
Galip Kemal Ozhan
Turkey may be her own special case in many respects, but the country’s progress has to take place in an increasingly interconnected global economy.

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North America
CANADA
Secular Stagnation is Not Destiny: Faster Growth is Achievable with Better Policy
Jean Boivin and Tiff Macklem
The stakes for the G-20 are incredibly high. Faster growth is within reach, but it will require countries to take action individually and collectively. Secular stagnation is not destiny; but avoiding it will take determination and resolve.

UNITED STATES
US Economic Growth is Over: The Short Run Meets the Long Run
Robert Gordon
The "techno-optimists" are wrong about the future U.S. economic growth.

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