Indo a uma inflacao crescente? Deterioracao progressiva

Pois é: depois de nos garantir o maior déficit de transações correntes desde o começo da série histórica, em 1947, a administração keynesiana de botequim dos companheiros, também está garantindo uma aceleração progressiva da inflação, o que só faz prenunciar novas greves de trabalhadores -- sobretudo do setor público, que são abusados, usam-nas como férias remuneradas e não têm nada a temer do patrão -- e novos aumentos do custo de vida.
A pior situação possível: em lugar de alto crescimento e baixa inflação, como gostariam os aprendizes de feiticeiro, vamos ter alta inflação e baixo crescimento.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brazil Macro Flash: CPI Inflation Continues at High and Undesirable Level

Announced: Friday, February 22, at 7:00 a.m. (NYT)

Actual: 0.68% Month Over Month

Previous: 0.86% Month Over Month (January’s CPI)

Consensus: 0.62% Month Over Month

Citi: 0.65% Month Over Month

Bottom Line

• February’s first half CPI inflation stood at 0.68% m/m, above market consensus. As a result, the annual inflation reached 6.18% (from 6.15% in January’s CPI). The main upward pressures of the monthly CPI were food prices and education costs. Core inflation declined, staying inside the inflation target band. For the end of this month, we expect February’s CPI inflation to decline further to around 0.45% reflecting additional impact of energy prices drop. Looking ahead, we expect CPI to increase 5.6% in 2013.
  
  Key Points
  
• In the monthly result, food prices increased 1.74%, less than the 1.99% figure seen in January’s CPI. Moreover, education costs rose 5.49% m/m, reflecting the annual increase in tuition fees. Energy prices plummeted 13.5% m/m and should decrease further in February’s CPI.
  
  
• The average of core inflation measures declined to 0.48%, from the 0.67% figure registered in January’s CPI. This average represents 6.0% on annualized terms. The diffusion index also decreased to 71% (from 75% in January).
  
  
• Lastly, services inflation decreased slightly to 8.5% over the last 12 months compared to the 8.6% print in January. As these prices are related to labor market conditions, we do not expect services inflation to decline markedly in the near future. (Citigroup)