Inflacao "dentro da meta"? O que dizem os dados? Refrescando a memória...

Leio o seguinte, na imprensa diária"

SÃO BERNARDO DO CAMPO - A presidente Dilma Rousseff afirmou nesta segunda-feira, 19, em entrevista à rádios do ABC paulista, que a "Inflação está sob controle e fechará na meta este ano...".

Mas ao que eu saiba, ao que sabem todos, e também os integrantes do Copom e do Conselho Monetário Nacional, a meta é de 4,5%, cravados (aliás, desde 2006). 
A banda é que pode se estender 2% acima, ou abaixo, do centro da meta, ou seja, a inflação anual pode ir de 2,5% a 6,5% ao ano.
Será que o teto já virou meta?
Parece que sim.

Recebi, ao mesmo tempo, a seguinte informação sobre dados da inflação brasileira, de um banco de investimento:

• August’s first half CPI inflation stood at 0.16% MoM, very close to market consensus and our forecast. The monthly inflation rate is increasing gradually as the temporary downward pressures in food and transportation prices fade. For the same reason, core inflation and the diffusion index rose slightly at the margin. On the other hand, annual inflation fell to 6.15% (from 6.4% in July), basically reflecting the more favorable behavior of food (11.0% from 11.9%) and monitored prices inflation (1.3% from 1.5%).
  
• Looking ahead, we expect the monthly inflation to increase further by the end of the month, staying slightly below 0.3% MoM. The exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is still modest. Given the lags of the pass-through, we expect tradable prices to accelerate further in the coming months, resulting in higher monthly inflation rates. Moreover, we must note that the recent BRL depreciation and the rising likelihood of a fuel prices increase pose upward risks to our year-end forecast, currently set at 5.9% YoY.
  
• In the monthly result, food prices fell 0.09% (from -0.2% in the previous month). Meanwhile, transportation prices decreased 0.3% (from -0.6%), reflecting the lower effect from the revoke of bus, subway and train fares hikes. Moreover, we also highlight the lower decline in apparel prices (-0.1% from -0.4% in the end of July) and the increase in education costs (0.7% from 0.1%), both related to seasonality. Regarding the exchange rate pass-through, we underscore the acceleration in tradable prices increases at the margin (0.3% from 0.1%), reflecting increases in durables prices.
  
• The average of core inflation measures rose to 0.34% m/m (from 0.32% in the previous month and 0.27% in the end of July), representing 4.2% in annualized terms (from 3.9% and 3.4%, respectively). The diffusion index increased to 60.7% (from 55.8% in the previous month and 55.0% in the end of July). Finally, services price inflation remained high over the last 12 months at 8.6% (from 8.6% in July).