Asia e América Latina: uma cresce e se desenvolve, a outra regride no protecionismo e se condena ao atraso...

Querem saber porque, desde os anos 1960 mais ou menos, a Ásia começou lentamente a ultrapassar a América Latina, num ritmo que só fez se acelerar desde o final dos anos 1980, e agora se torna irremediavelmente inalcançável para a América Latina?
Entre outros motivos, pelas razões que estão expostas nos trabalhos abaixo, do setor de pesquisas do Asian Development Bank, mas existem outras mais, de natureza fiscal, educacional, atração de investimentos, etc.
Mas, o fato é que, com exceção da Aliança do Pacífico, o resto da América Latina regride no protecionismo, políticas industriais equivocadas, educação e infraestrutura em frangalhos, quando não se condenam a um retorno ao inflacionismo e emissionismo desenfreado do passado, com controles cambiais e de capitais, enfim, toda sorte de manipulações.
Parece que o continente não aprende, e ainda tem gente que canta as glórias desse modelo de desenvolvimento, que justamente não é modelo (a não ser de fracasso) e não é de desenvolvimento, mas de atraso.
Ainda esta semana, um famoso professor da UnB disse que os países da Aliança do Pacífico estavam condenados ao fracasso, e que só o modelo industrialista brasileiro era garantia de desenvolvimento.
Custa a acreditar quando ouço certas coisas sendo ditas por pessoas que deveriam ser melhor informadas, ou pelo menos estudar a história, de preferência, já que esta é supostamente sua especialidade...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE RESEARCH PAPER SERIES ABSTRACTS "Plurilateral Agreements: A Viable Alternative to the World Trade Organization?"  ADBI Working Paper 439 MICHITAKA NAKATOMI, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Email: nakatomi_michitaka@ybb.ne.jp The paper looks at some issue-based plurilateral agreements — such as the Information Technology Agreement (ITA), the Financial Services and Basic Telecommunication Services Agreements, and the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) — with the aim of pointing to their crucial role in resolving the stalemate at the WTO and the Doha Round and the accelerating proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs). It also suggests possible areas where new plurilateral agreements — whether single or multiple issue-based — can be developed. The paper highlights the importance of plurilateral agreements as a mechanism complementary to the WTO and FTAs in enhancing the governance of the global trade system, and outlines conditions that need to be fulfilled to address the needs of developing countries. "The ASEAN Economic Community: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects"  ADBI Working Paper 440 SIOWYUE CHIA, Independent, Singapore Institute of International Affairs Email: chiasy@singnet.com.sg The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was set up in 2003 with the objectives of creating a single market and production base, enhancing equitable economic development as well as facilitating the integration into the global economy. The AEC involves liberalization and facilitation of trade in goods, services, and investment, as well as protection and promotion of investment. The paper outlines the AEC Blueprint actions and the time lines for completion. The authors find that by end-2011 only an implementation rate of 67.5% had been achieved. While tariff elimination is found to be largely on schedule, there are difficulties with the removal of non-tariff barriers as well as with the liberalization of services and investment regimes. "ASEAN 2030: Challenges of Building a Mature Political and Security Community"  ADBI Working Paper No. 441 AMITAV ACHARYA, American University - School of International Service Email: aacharya@american.edu The paper examines ASEAN’s political and security challenges and prospects in the coming two decades. The challenges facing ASEAN could be classified into six broad categories: (1) the shifting balance of power in the Asia Pacific; (2) the persistence of intra-ASEAN territorial conflicts; (3) the territorial dispute in the South China Sea, (4) the programs of military modernizations undertaken by ASEAN states and the resulting prospects for an intra-ASEAN arms race, (5) uncertainty and strife caused by demands for domestic political change, and (6) the dangers posed by transnational (non-traditional) security threats. The conditions for ASEAN to build a mature political-security community are also discussed. "Regional Trade Agreements and Enterprises in Southeast Asia"  ADBI Working Paper No. 442 GANESHAN WIGNARAJA, Asian Development Bank Institute Email: gwignaraja@adbi.org This paper undertakes a comparative and firm-level analysis of the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. It finds that firm-heterogeneity matters in RTA use. Acquiring knowledge about RTAs, building technological capabilities, and membership of industrial clusters affect the likelihood of RTA use at firm-level. A lack of information about RTAs and the absence of RTAs with major trading partners explain non-use of RTAs. Key policy implications include the need to improve business support for RTAs, to conclude RTAs with major trading partners, and to create a database on preference use in RTAs.