Petrobras: uma analise isenta do desastre incomensuravel por um analista de mercado - Aswath Damodaran

Primeiro, o link para esta postagem muito importante para os que querem ter uma ideia do que foi feito com a Petrobras pelos companheiros corruptos:

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.br/2015/02/how-low-can-you-go-doing-petrobras-limbo.html?m=1

Agora, sobre o autor, Aswath Damodaran:

Aswath Damodaran

I am a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU. I teach classes in corporate finance and valuation, primarily to MBAs, but generally to anyone who will listen.

Posto aqui apenas o início da postagem, bastante longa, mas recomendo sua leitura integral, assim como dos comentários feitos na sua sequência:

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

How low can you go? Doing the Petrobras Limbo! 

 

A few months ago, I suggested that investors venture where it is darkest, the nether regions of the corporate world where country risk, commodity risk and company risk all collide to create investing quicksand. I still own the two companies that I highlighted in that post, Vale and Lukoil, and have no regrets, even though I have lost money on both. At the time of the post, I was asked why I had not picked Brazil’s other commodity colossus, Petrobras, as my company to value (and invest in) and I dodged the question. The news from the last few days provides a partial answer, but I think that the Petrobras experience, painful though it might have been for some investors, provides an illustration of the costs and benefits of political patronage.

Petrobras: A Short History

Petrobras was founded in 1953 as the Brazilian government oil company, and for the first few decades of its life, it was run as a government-owned company from its headquarters in Rio De Janeiro. Until 1997, it had a legal monopoly on oil production and distribution in Brazil, when the domestic market was opened up to foreign oil producers. Petrobras was listed as a public company in 1997 on the Sao Paulo exchange and as a depository receipt on the New York Stock Exchange soon after. The arc of fortunes for the company can be traced in the changes in its market capitalization over time, reported in US dollars in the figure below:

Market Capitalization & Enterprise Value at end of each year

In the last decade, Petrobras has seen both highs and lows, becoming the fifth largest company in the world, in terms of market capitalization, in 2011 and then seeing a precipitous drop off in market prices in the years since. To understand where Petrobras is now and to make sense of where it is going, you have to look at both its rise in the last decade and its fall in this one.

The rise of Petrobras from minor emerging market oil company to global giant between 2002 and 2010 can be traced to three factors. The first was the discovery of major new reserves in Brazil in the early part of the last decade, which catapulted the company towards the top of the list of companies with proven reserves. The fact that these reserves would be expensive to develop was mitigated by a second development, which was the sustained surge in oil prices to triple digit levels for much of the period, making them viable. The third was an overall reduction in Brazilian country risk from the stratospheric levels of 2001 (when the country default spread for Brazil reached 14.34%, just before the election of Lula Da Silva as President) to 1.43% in 2010, when Brazil looked like it had made the leap to almost-developed market status. In 2010, the company signaled that its arrival in global markets and its ambitions to be even more by raising $72.8 billion from equity markets.

The hubris that led to the public offering may have been the trigger for the subsequent fall of the company, which has been dizzying because of the magnitude of the decline, and its speed. After peaking at a market capitalization close to $244 billion in 2010, the company has managed to lose a little bit more than $200 billion in value since, putting it in rarefied company with other champion value destroyers over time. While a large portion of the blame for the decline in the last few months (especially since September 2014) can be attributed to the drop in oil prices, note that Petrobras has already managed to destroy $160 billion in value prior to that point in time.(...)

Leiam a integra aqui: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.br/2015/02/how-low-can-you-go-doing-petrobras-limbo.html?m=1

Perceberam agora a amplitude do crime cometido contra a companhia?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida