The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future - World Bank

O Banco Mundial acaba de publicar um relatório analítico sobre a natureza mutável das riquezas mundiais, distribuídas entre as as nações.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/29001/9781464810466.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y&deliveryName=DM2004&deliveryName=FCP_3_DM1962

January 2018. 240 pages.

English Version. Paperback. 

ISBN: 978-1-4648-1046-6

Price: $39.95

THE CHANGING WEALTH OF NATIONS 2018:

Building a Sustainable Future

Edited by Glenn-Marie Lange, Quentin Wodon, and Kevin Carey

Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018

Countries regularly track gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of their economic progress, but not wealth—the assets such as infrastructure, forests, minerals, and human capital that produce GDP. In contrast, corporations routinely report on both their income and assets to assess their economic health and prospects for the future. Wealth accounts allow countries to take stock of their assets to monitor the sustainability of development, an urgent concern today for all countries.

The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future coversnational wealth for 141 countries over 20 years (1995–2014) as the sum of produced capital, 19 types of natural capital, net foreign assets, and human capital overall as well as by gender and type of employment. Great progress has been made in estimating wealth since the first volume, Where Is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century, was published in 2006. New data substantially improve estimates of natural capital, and, for the first time, human capital is measured by using household surveys to estimate lifetime earnings.

The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018 begins with a review of global and regional trends in wealth over the past two decades and provides examples of how wealth accounts can be used for the analysis of development patterns. Several chapters discuss the new work on human capital and its application in development policy. The book then tackles elements of natural capital that are not yet fully incorporated in the wealth accounts: air pollution, marine fisheries, and ecosystems. This book targets policy makers but will engage anyone committed to building a sustainable future for the planet.

Contents

Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii

Executive Summary 1

Key Findings 1
Why Should We Measure Wealth? 2
What Is New in This Version of The Changing Wealth of Nations? 3 Global and Regional Trends from 1995 to 2014 5
Natural Capital and Development 8
Human Capital: Driver of Development 14
Organization of the Book 19
Summing Up 21
Notes 22
References 22

Chapter 1. Estimating the Wealth of Nations 25

Main Messages 25
Complementary Measures: GDP and National Wealth 25
How We Measure Wealth 27
Wealth, Adjusted Net Saving, and Sustainability 30
The Role of Institutions, Governance, and Social Capital 33
A Roadmap for the Book 33
Summing Up and Future Research 36
Annex 1A: Changes in Methodology and Data Sources for the Wealth Accounts 38 Notes 40
References 40

Chapter 2. Richer or Poorer? Global and Regional Trends in Wealth from 1995 to 2014 43

Main Messages 43
Introduction 44
Trends in Global Wealth 44
Regional Trends in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 49 Convergence in the Wealth of Nations 55
Savings and Changes in National Wealth 60
Conclusion 63
Annex 2A: Countries Classi ed by Income Group and Region 64 Annex 2B: Regional Trends in Adjusted Net Saving 65
Note 68
References 68

Chapter 3. Wealth Accounts, Adjusted Net Saving, and Diversi ed Development in Resource-Rich African Countries 69

Main Messages 69
Introduction 70
Two Approaches to Measuring Investments and Sustainability 71 Trends in ANS in Sub-Saharan Africa 73
Comparing Adjusted Net Saving and Changes in Wealth 75
Case Studies: Ghana and Niger 77
Conclusion 82
Note 84
References 84

Chapter 4. Expanding Measures of Productivity to Include Natural Capital 85

Main Messages 85

Introduction 86

Recent Work on MFP Growth by the OECD 87

Growth Accounting for Measuring MFP Growth 88

Empirical Applications to Selected Petroleum Producers 90

Conclusions 92

Annex 4A: Understanding How Including Natural Resources as Factors of Production Affects the MFP Calculation 93

Notes 94 References 94

Chapter 5. The Carbon Wealth of Nations: From Rents to Risks 97

Main Messages 97 Introduction 97
Carbon Wealth of Nations 99

Carbon Risk 102
Four Challenges for Carbon-Rich Nations 103 Conclusion 110
Notes 111
References 112

Chapter 6. Human Capital and the Wealth of Nations: Global Estimates and Trends 115

Main Messages 115
Introduction 116
Measuring Human Capital Wealth 117 Estimates of Human Capital Wealth 121 Conclusion 131
Notes 132
References 132

Chapter 7. Gains in Human Capital Wealth: What Growth Models Tell Us 135

Main Messages 135
Introduction 135
Measures of Human Capital Wealth 137 Convergence in Human Capital Wealth? 139 Modeling Human Capital Wealth Per Capita 141 Summary Statistics 143
Estimation Results 145
Conclusion 147
Note 148
References 148

Chapter 8. Intangible Capital as the Engine for Development in Morocco 151

Main Messages 151
Introduction 152
Trends in Morocco’s Wealth 153
Morocco 2040: Building Human Capital 157 Morocco 2040: Institutions and Governance 164 Conclusion 166
Notes 168
References 168

Chapter 9. Air Pollution: Impact on Human Health and Wealth 171

Main Messages 171
Introduction 171
Air Pollution Incidence and Impact across the Globe 173

The Economic Costs of Air Pollution 178

Recommendations for the Way Forward: Improving the Measure of Pollution Losses for Human Capital 184

Annex 9A: Valuing the Cost of Air Pollution in the Adjusted Net Saving Indicator 185 Notes 186
References 187

Chapter 10. Subsidies Reduce Marine Fisheries Wealth 189

Main Messages 189

Introduction 190

State of Global Marine Fisheries 192

Annex 10A: Maximum Sustainable Yield, Maximum Economic Yield, and How Subsidies Can Create Negative Rents 195

Notes 196 References 196

Chapter 11. Remote Sensing and Modeling to Fill the Gap in “Missing” Natural Capital 199

Main Messages 199

Introduction 199

Biophysical Quanti cation of Ecosystem Services 201

Guidelines for Data and Models in Supporting Wealth Accounting for Natural Capital 205

Economic Valuation for Wealth Accounting 206 Note 207
References 207

Appendix A. Summary of Methodology and Data Sources 211

Total Wealth 211

Natural Capital
Produced Capital
Net Foreign Assets 219 Human Capital 220 Adjusted Net Saving 222 Notes 223
References 223

Appendix B. Per Capita Wealth for 2014 225

Boxes

.    ES.1  Wealth Accounting and the Sustainable Development Goals 4 


.    ES.2  Renewables, Nonrenewables, and the Challenge of Development 11 


212 219

.    ES.3  The Carbon Wealth of Nations at Risk 14 


.    ES.4  Using Human Capital Data for Policy: A Summary of the Companion Volume 15 


.    ES.5  Intangible Capital and Diversi cation as the Engine for Development in Morocco 20 


.    1.1  Measuring Wealth in Purchasing Power Parity Terms 30 


.    1.2  Savings and Changes in Wealth 32 


2.1 Renewables, Nonrenewables, and the Challenge of Diversi cation 51

.    3.1  Oil Revenues, Electoral Cycles, and Adjusted Net Saving in Ghana 79 


.    3.2  Principles of Managing Natural Resource Revenues: Is a Fund Enough? 83 


.    5.1  Uncertainties around Carbon Wealth Estimates 102 


.    5.2  Climate Strategies of Carbon-Dependent Countries 109 


6.1 Human Capital: Wealth, by Type of Employment 119

8.1 Evaluation of the Impact of Public Policies on Gender Inequality and Growth in Morocco 163

10.1 Mauritania: Where Fisheries Capital Really Counts 191

Figures

.    ES.1  Shares of Global Wealth, by Income Group, 1995, 2005, and 2014 6 


.    ES.2  Changes in Total Wealth and Per Capita Wealth, 1995–2014 7 


.    ES.3  SharesofRenewableandNonrenewableNaturalCapitalinTotalWealth,by Region,1995 and 2014 11 


.    ES.4  Change in Per Capita Value of Forest and Agricultural Land, 1995–2014 12 


.    ES.5  Annual Growth Rates in Human Capital Wealth Per Capita, 1995–2014 (%) 16 


.    ES.6  Male Share in Human Capital Wealth, 2014 17 


.    ES.7  Self-Employed Share in Human Capital Wealth, 2014 17 


.    ES.8  Human Capital Wealth Per Capita and GDP Per Capita 18 


.    ES.9  Convergence in Human Capital Wealth Per Capita, by Gender 


.    2.1  Distribution of Global Wealth, by Income Group, 2014 46 


.    2.2  Composition of Wealth, by Income Group, 2014 48 


.    2.3  Contribution to Growth of Wealth, by Type of Asset, 1995–2014 


.    2.4  Regional Composition of Wealth, 1995 and 2014 51 


19

49

.    2.5  Shares of Renewable and Nonrenewable Natural Capital in Total Wealth, by 
Region,1995 and 2014 53 


.    2.6  Change in Per Capita Value of Forest and Agricultural Land, 1995 to 2014 54 


.    2.7  Changes in Total Wealth and Per Capita Wealth, 1995 to 2014 56 


.    2.8  Convergence in the Wealth of Nations Per Capita, 1995 and 2014 57 


.    2.9  Growth in the Main Components of the Wealth of Nations, 1995–2014 58 


.    2.10  Procedure for Estimating Adjusted Net Saving 61 


.    2.11  Adjusted Net Saving in Resource-Rich Countries, Average 2011–15 62 


.    2.12  Adjusted Net Saving, by Region, 1995–2015 63 


.    2B.1  Adjusted Net Saving for East Asia and Paci c, 1995–2015 65 


.    2B.2  Adjusted Net Saving for South Asia, 1995–2015 65 


.    2B.3  Adjusted Net Saving for Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995–2015 66 


.    2B.4  Adjusted Net Saving for Latin America and the Caribbean, 1995–2015 66 


.    2B.5  Adjusted Net Saving for Europe and Central Asia, 1995–2015 67 


.    2B.6  Adjusted Net Saving for the Middle East and North Africa, 1995–2015 67 


.    3.1  Procedure for Estimating Adjusted Net Saving 71 


.    3.2  Trends in Adjusted Net Saving for Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995–2015 73 


.    3.3  Adjusted Net Saving and Change in Wealth 76 


.    4.1  Comparing MFP Growth Measured Excluding and Including Natural Resources, Selected Petroleum Producers, 2010 91 


.    4.2  Gabon, MFP Growth Rate with and without the Inclusion of Natural Resources, 1997–2014 92 


.    5.1  Fossil Fuel Wealth, by Country, 2014 104 


.    5.2  Fossil Fuel Assets Compared with Government Revenues, by Country, 2010–14 105 


.    5.3  Time to Depletion of Oil Reserves, 2014 106 


.    5.4  Adjusted Net Saving and Nonrenewable Resource Rents 110 


.    6.1  Annual Growth Rates in Human Capital Wealth Per Capita, 1995–2014 124 


.    6.2  Male Share in Human Capital Wealth, 2014 126 


.    6.3  Self-Employed Share in Human Capital Wealth, 2014 127 


.    6.4  Human Capital Wealth Per Capita and GDP Per Capita 131 


7.1 Convergence in Human Capital Wealth Per Capita, by Gender 140

.    8.1  Components of Morocco’s Wealth Per Capita, 2005 and 2014 154 


.    8.2  Sources of Wealth in Morocco and Comparator Countries, 2014 155 


.    8.3  Enrollment Rates in Preprimary Education 158 


.    8.4  Under-Five Stunting Rate and GDP Per Capita 159 


.    8.5  Shares of Human Capital, by Gender, 2014 161 


.    8.6  Shares of Human Capital, by Type of Employment, 2014 164 


.    8.7  Degree of Social Trust, Morocco and Comparators, 2014 165 


.    8.8  Governance Indicators, Morocco and Comparators, 2015 165 


.    9.1  Leading Fatal Risk Factors Globally, 2015 174 


.    9.2  Population Reliant on Solid Fuels, 1990–2015 175 


.    9.3  Premature Deaths from Ambient PM2.5 Pollution, by Region, 1990 and 2015 176 


.    9.4  Premature Deaths from Household Air Pollution, by Region, 1990 and 2015 177 


.    9.5  Age Pro le of Premature Mortality from Air Pollution, by Region, 2015 177 


.    9.6  Global Labor Income Losses from Ambient PM2.5 and Household Air Pollution, 1995–2015 179 


.    9.7  Annual Labor Income Losses from Air Pollution, by Region, 2015 180 


.    9.8  Average Annual Change in Labor Income Losses from Air Pollution, by Region, 1995–2015 181 


.    9.9  Labor Income Losses from Air Pollution, by Income Group, 2015 181 


.    9.10  Age Pro le of Labor Income Losses from Air Pollution, by Region, 2015 182 


.    9.11  Average Annual Change in Losses from Household Air Pollution in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 1995–2015, versus Income Level in 2015 183 


9.12 Average Annual Change in Losses from Ambient PM2.5, 1995–2015, versus Income Level in 2015 184

B10.1.1 Where Is the Wealth of Mauritania? 191

.    10.1  Trends in Global Marine Catch, 1950–2012 192 


.    10.2  State of Global Marine Fish Stocks, 1974–2013 193 


10A.1 Catch, Fishing Effort, and Rents 195

Maps

ES.1 Percent Growth in Total Wealth Per Capita, 1995–2014 7
2.1 Percent Growth in Total Wealth Per Capita, 1995–2014 56
5.1 Fossil Fuel Rent as a Percentage of GDP, by Country, 2014 100
9.1 Mean Annual Concentrations of Ambient PM2.5 Pollution, 2015 175

10.1 Where Fisheries Contribute to the Wealth of Nations 194

Tables

ES.1 Wealth, by Type of Asset and Region, 2014 8
BES.6.1 Wealth Per Capita in Morocco and Comparator Countries 20

B1.1.1 Alternative Measures of GDP Per Capita in China, 2014

30

.    2.1  Wealth and Population, by Income Group, 1995–2014 45 


.    2.2  Global Wealth, by Type of Asset, 1995 and 2014 47 


.    2.3  Trends in Wealth Per Capita in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Region, 
1995–2014 50 


.    2.4  Land Cover for Forest, Crops, Pasture, and Protected Areas in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 1995 and 2014 53 


2A.1 Number of Countries in the Wealth Accounting Database, by Region and Income Group 64

.    3.1  Typology of Countries and Average Adjusted Net Saving, 1990–2015 74 


.    3.2  Decomposition of Ghana’s Adjusted Net Saving Per Capita with Population Adjustment, 2005–14 78 


.    3.3  Decomposition of Niger’s Adjusted Net Saving Per Capita with Population Adjustment, 2005–14 81 


.    4.1  MFP Average Annual Growth with and without Accounting for Natural Resources, Selected Countries, 1996–2008 88 


.    4.2  MFP Growth Rates, Selected Petroleum Producers, 1996–2014 90 


.    5.1  Wealth Shares, by Region and Income Group, 2014 100 


.    5.2  States’ Share of National Oil Companies, by Total Asset Value 108 


.    6.1  Trends in Wealth Per Capita, by Level of Development, 1995–2014 123 


.    6.2  Trends in Wealth Per Capita, by Region, 1995–2014 125 


.    6.3  Shares of Human Capital Wealth, by Gender, 1995–2014 128 


.    6.4  Potential Gains in Human Capital Wealth from Gender Equity, 1995–2014 129 


.    7.1  Levels and Gender Shares in Human Capital Wealth, by Income Group, 1995–2014 138 


.    7.2  Summary Statistics for the Variables, 1995–2010 and 1995–2014 142 


7.3 Correlates of the Growth in Human Capital Wealth of Nations Per Capita: Key Results 145

.    8.1  Morocco’s Wealth Per Capita, 2005–14 153 


.    8.2  Wealth Per Capita in Morocco and Comparator Countries 155 


.    8.3  Decomposing Morocco’s Net Wealth Creation Per Capita, 2005–14 156 


.    8.4  Potential Gains in Human Capital Wealth from Gender Equity, 2014 162 


B8.1.1 Effect of Reducing Gender Inequality on the Rate of Economic Growth 163

9.1 Labor Income Losses from Air Pollution, by Region, 1995–2015 178

11.1 Environmental Modeling and Mapping Approaches for Ecosystem Services in Support of Wealth Accounting 203

.    A.1  Data Sources for Energy and Mineral Resources 214 


.    A.2  Data Sources for Forest Timber Resources 216 


.    A.3  Data Sources for Forest Nontimber Resources 216 


.    A.4  Data Sources for Cropland and Pastureland 217 


.    A.5  Data Sources for Agricultural Land and Terrestrial Protected Land Area 218 


.    A.6  Data Sources for the Estimation of Human Capital 222 


.    A.7  Adjusted Net Saving’s Components and Primary Data Sources 222