A quase guerra civil russa, na visão dos ucranianos do Center for Defense Studies

 Russia, relevant news

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), June 24. 2023,

The alleged military coup by the PMC "Wagner" under the leadership of Yevgeny Prigozhin lasted for 24 hours before collapsing and entering negotiations with the Kremlin, mediated by the unrecognized president of Belarus, Lukashenko. According to the Kremlin's version, the conditions for ending the coup included dropping the criminal case against Prigozhin, his departure to Belarus, and assurances from Putin that he would not be pursued. Additionally, the Russian authorities would not hold accountable the "Wagner" PMC combatants involved in the rebellion, while those who did not participate could sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.

“Today, the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability,” President Volodymyr Zelensky twitted. 

Though it seems the climax is over and Vladimir Putin has managed to remain on his throne, the failed coup d’état will have far-reaching consequences.

If we assume that today's attempted coup was not staged, we can draw the following conclusions:

-       Firstly, Vladimir Putin personally lost control over the situation and allegedly escaped Moscow. He has chosen a ride, not an ammo [compared to Zelensky]. It’s a sign of weakness that undermines his macho image in a country ruled by criminal-like customs rather than by law and institutions. The massive blow to the cult of personality will play a role in the future.

-       Secondly, the “peacemaking” role of Alexander Lukashenko, if true, equated two tyrants and a warlord. It is well noted at home and abroad. The authoritarian leaders appreciate a firm grip over power and disrespect those who aren’t strong enough.

-       Thirdly, the involvement of a so-called private military company like Wagner highlights the failure of the state. While these entities were created to carry out covert operations without direct connections to the Kremlin (seizure of Crimea, the war in Donbas since 2014, Syria, Africa and other places), their participation in the coup reveals the extent of their political influence. Wagner’s chieftain and several militaries confessed that they played in a show in Ukraine from the beginning. Such revolutions threw out theories about a civil war in Ukraine. Prigozhin also admitted that there was no massive shelling of the Russia-occupied cities by the UAF, and Ukraine wasn’t about to “invade” those territories, an important justification for war made by Putin.

-       Fourthly, over-militarized Russia turned out to be defenseless. Military command failed to enforce actions from subordinates, some of whom joined the failed junta. As previous attacks of the Russian freedom fighters on Belgorod showed, Moscow could hardly gather sizable force and cope with the intrusion.

-       Fifth, the locals in the cities and towns seized by Wagner didn’t organize resistance. Many of them showed sympathy to Wagner mercenaries because they were dissatisfied with Moscow and the way Putin and his closest friends and subjects waged war. 

The failed advance to Moscow, called the “March for Justice”, will leave many in Wagner and those who joined them disappointed. Feelings of injustice and betrayal are multiplied and will play a crucial role in the future. It may show that violence is crucial to bringing “justice,” while agreements serve only those better off and in power. “Either Putin or Prigozhin will be dead before year end. There is no room in Russia for both of them,” Timothy Ash twitted.

Finally, the West got a hint that there should be contingency planning in case of civil war and the dissolution of Russia. Politically correct phraseology about the absence of regime change intentions didn’t impress Putin and did not prevent such events. A failed state and society under such pressure are increasingly heading toward a collapse. The failed coup d’état in 1991 galvanized the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Russia will remain an unstable and unpredictable entity balancing on the edge of collapse for a long time. Ukraine’s role as a guardian of the rest has increased. So, it needs more support to fight for its sovereignty and territorial integrity, therefore mitigating the threats to others and bringing an unstable regime to inevitable collapse.