War for Ukraine and the Rediscovery of Geopolitics - Sven Biscop (Egmont Institute)

Dear colleague,

I have the pleasure of sending you a new Egmont Paper, in which I travel around the world in 10 pages to assess the geopolitical consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine:

 

War for Ukraine and the Rediscovery of Geopolitics

 

 

 The illustration shows the multipolar world of 1937. It is a period map that was given out as a supplement with a Belgian newspaper in that year. I picked it up at the Brussels flea market, and now it graces our bedroom. Nevertheless, geopolitics does not keep me awake at night, nor do I dream of Grand Strategy. Well, maybe a little bit…

Best wishes, 

Sven 

Prof. Dr. Sven Biscop

Director – Europe in the World Programme, Egmont

Professor – Ghent University 

Associate Member – Royal Academy for Overseas Sciences 

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

Rue des Petits Carmes 15, B-1000 Brussels

s.biscop@egmontinstitute.be

 War for Ukraine and the Rediscovery of Geopolitics: Must the EU Draw New Battlelines or Keep an Open Door?

By Sven Biscop

 (1 June 2023) 

In Egmont papers

·       EU and strategic partners,

·       EU strategy and foreign policy,

·       Europe in the world,

·       European defence / NATO

Just like many Allied leaders during World War One could only see what was right in front of them, i.e., the continuous line of trenches in Belgium and France, so many EU leaders today see only the land war in Ukraine. They disregard, at their peril, that for Russia, one of the vital interests at stake is control over the Black Sea and access to the Mediterranean. For years, in fact, Russia has been doing what Churchill advocated the Allies do in the Great War. In the face of the perceived frontal onslaught of EU and NATO enlargement into Eastern Europe, Putin has been turning Europe’s flanks. Russia has forged a special relationship with Turkey; it has intervened successfully in Syria, safeguarding its naval base in Tartus; and it has established a military presence from the shores of the Mediterranean to Central Africa. Europeans are forever debating which flank, East or South, should receive priority. Seen from Moscow this is one vast theatre, where Russia constantly acts as a spoiler, thwarting Europe’s plans, with the aim of weakening the EU and NATO and diverting them from Eastern Europe.

View pdf: 

https://www.egmontinstitute.be/app/uploads/2023/05/Sven-Biscop_Paper_123_vFinal.pdf?type=pdf

EGMONT PAPER 123 | WAR FOR UKRAINE AND THE REDISCOVERY OF GEOPOLITICS

Table of Contents

Introduction 4 

Entering the Game of Geopolitics 4 

A New Geopolitical Situation in Europe 5 

Wider Geopolitical Ramifications 7

Africa 7 The Gulf 7 

The Caucasus and Central Asia 8

China, Russia, and Eurasia 9 

A New World Order? 10 

Conclusion and Recommendations for Future EU Strategy 12

Endnotes, 13