Putin’s Peace Plan: Ukraine’s total submission - Foreign Policy

 A Fifth of Ukraine’s Land

Foreign Policy, 15/06/2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised on Friday to order an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine and begin peace negotiations if Kyiv and its Western allies agree to a series of conditions. These include Ukraine withdrawing all of its troops from the four Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia; the West lifting all sanctions imposed on Moscow; and Kyiv dropping its NATO membership bid.

Moscow does not control all of the territory in these four regions, meaning that a Ukrainian surrender on these conditions would give Russia more land than it currently occupies. Combined with the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in February 2014, this would be a loss of more than one-fifth of Ukraine’s sovereign territory.

“Our principled position is that Ukraine’s status must be a neutral, nonaligned, free of nuclear weapons,” Putin said. Friday’s proposal is the most concrete set of conditions to stop the conflict that Putin has offered since the war began in February 2022. He has previously suggested that negotiations take into account “the realities of today,” which some experts have interpreted as meaning current battle lines.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry immediately denounced Putin’s proposal, saying the Russian president’s goal is “to mislead the international community, undermine diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a just peace, and split the unity of the world over the goals and principles of the United Nations Charter.” Kyiv reiterated its position that Russia must withdraw all of its forces from Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.

The proposal came just one day before Switzerland is set to host a two-day peace conference on the Russia-Ukraine war. Representatives from at least 90 countries and organizations will attend, with key guests including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris; the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom; Turkey’s and Hungary’s foreign ministers; and a delegation from India.

Notably absent will be a delegation from China, which declined the invitation, and Putin, who was not invited and said the event is “just another ploy to divert everyone’s attention, reverse the cause and effect of the Ukrainian crisis, [and] set the discussion on the wrong track.” The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said the timing of Putin’s cease-fire proposal is a sign that the Kremlin is trying to undermine the conference’s efforts, accusing Putin of being “afraid of a real peace.”

In November 2022, Zelensky outlined a 10-point peace proposal, which included the restoration of Ukraine’s “territorial integrity” under the U.N. Charter as well as the return of Crimea. Last February, Beijing released a 12-point peace planthat, despite Putin’s backing, has achieved little momentum.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s allies have doubled down on their commitment to Kyiv. On Friday, NATO defense ministers finalized an agreement that gives the alliance greater control over military assistance and training for Ukraine. NATO countries supply more than 99 percent of all of Kyiv’s military support, “so it makes sense that NATO takes on a greater role in these efforts,” alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg said. On Thursday, the G-7 agreed to issue $50 billion in loans to Kyiv using interest from frozen Russian assets.