A tragédia do Libano sob o Hezbollah - Balance of Power (Bloomberg)

 

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. For months, world powers have been increasingly concerned about the prospect of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah. Those fears have become far more justified in recent days: Israel escalated its campaign against the Iran-backed militant group with a massive bombardment of its positions in Lebanon yesterday. The strikes killed almost 500 people — including around 100 women and children — and wounded 1,650, according to Lebanese officials. Civilians are panicking in the south of the country and the Bekaa region in the north-east, with thousands of cars clogging roads to the capital, Beirut. Israel says it had no choice but to act more aggressively after months of diplomacy — including by the US, France and Germany — failed to get Hezbollah to stop its missile and drone attacks. Those are being carried out in support of Hamas in the devastating war in Gaza. Last week, Israel made enabling the return of tens of thousands of displaced civilians to the country’s north an official war objective. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that can’t happen unless Hezbollah moves its fighters back around 20 miles (32 kilometers) from the border with Lebanon. He seems to hope Israel’s aerial campaign will be enough to achieve that without a ground offensive, which his government knows could bog down its troops for months, if not longer, and come at a huge human and economic cost. It could also trigger a fierce retaliation from Hezbollah. Iran would likely act if it felt the existence of Hezbollah — its most important proxy group — as a military force was in question. The US, for its part, may have to back Israel even more than it’s done for the war in Gaza. There is a growing danger that the current clashes will spiral into the regional war the rest of the world is so keen to avoid. — Paul Wallace