China: economia sob ameaca, Brasil vai sofrer - NYTimes

Epa! Agora a coisa parece séria: o próprio FMI fazendo alertas para os dirigentes chineses sobre a insustentabilidade das políticas atuais.
O Brasil, altamente dependente da demanda chinesa, já está se ressentindo da diminuição das taxas de crescimento naquele país, o que significa que, ademais dos problemas "made in Brazil", propriamente - inflação, desequilíbrio das contas públicas, perda de credibilidade das políticas macro e setoriais, corrupção, etc. -- também teremos de enfrentar um ambiente externo menos propício -- e cada vez mais competitivo, na nossa própria região -- à manutenção de taxas, já não digo altas, mas razoáveis, de crescimento econômico.
O Brasil, como já alertado diversas vezes, pode estar atravessando, por um largo período, o que foi designado como "estagnação no baixo crescimento".
Portanto, não esperem ficar ricos na sua geração: a renda, ao ritmo atual, só dobra em três gerações...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The New York Times, July 17, 2013

I.M.F. Tells China of Urgent Need for Economic Change

By ANNIE LOWREY

WASHINGTON — China’s growth has slowed significantly in recent months. But even its current pace of expansion may be unsustainable unless the country starts making significant and systemic changes to its economy, and soon, the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday.

“Since the global crisis, a mix of investment, credit and fiscal stimulus has underpinned activity,” the I.M.F. said in a major annual assessment of the Chinese economy. “This pattern of growth is not sustainable and is raising vulnerabilities. While China still has significant buffers to weather shocks, the margins of safety are diminishing.”

The report emphasized downside risks to the Chinese economy, touching on familiar themes though imparting more of a sense of urgency than it has in the past.

The country still has large foreign-currency reserves and plenty of room for new government spending to buffer against any unexpected shocks, said Markus Rodlauer, the I.M.F.'s China mission chief, in an interview. But he said the Chinese economy was looking more and more vulnerable, with changes only getting harder to make as time goes on.

The I.M.F. — along with a range of international economic officials, research groups, academics and financial market participants — has raised concern that money is pouring into mispriced real estate and infrastructure investments in China that are increasing growth in the short term but might do little for the Chinese economy down the road.

For decades, a cheap currency, cheap labor and huge infrastructure investment fueled enormous growth in the Asian nation. China has made “substantial” progress on rebalancing its trade deficits with the rest of the world, the I.M.F. said, and its current account balance as a share of its total economy is less than a quarter of its precrisis peak.

The fund described the Chinese currency as “moderately” undervalued, as it has for about a year after a long stretch of describing it as “significantly” undervalued — a policy maneuver that helped boost China’s exports but angered many foreign countries whose goods became relatively less competitive.

But imbalances in China’s domestic economy “remain large,” the I.M.F. warned, with Chinese consumers failing to take over for consumers from the United States, Germany and other countries who helped stoke China’s growth for years. Consumption rates have barely budged from last year. But net purchases of physical assets like roads, hospitals and commercial buildings grew further as a share of the economy.

“A decisive shift toward a more consumption-based growth path has yet to occur,” the I.M.F. said. “Accelerating the transformation of the growth model remains the main priority.”

The I.M.F. focused on a few spots of acute risk in the Chinese economy.

One is the financial system. The country has seen huge boom in lending through “less regulated” parts of its financial system, it said. The report raised concerns about the adequacy of the country’s regulatory controls, and about the quality of underwriting and the pricing of risk.

The formal banking sector might not be as strong as it looks, either, the I.M.F. warned. “Based on reported data, bank balance sheets appear healthy and loan books show only a modest deterioration in asset quality,” it wrote. “However, banks remain vulnerable to a sharper worsening of corporate sector financial performance.”

Another issue is a proliferation of debt-financed spending by local governments without adequate tax bases, often through “local government financing vehicles” that have long been fingered as a weak spot in China’s markets. “Further rapid growth of debts would raise the risk of a disorderly adjustment in local government spending,” the I.M.F. warned.

Finally, it also cautioned about the possibility of sharp price drops in the real estate markets, which remain “prone to bubbles,” the I.M.F. said, in no small part because many Chinese savers do not earn interest on their deposits and thus push money into the housing markets.

Making adjustments to the financial markets and correcting the pace of infrastructure spending might mean slower growth in the near term, the I.M.F. has said. But it might mean more sustainable growth in the long term, with substantial benefits not just for China but for global growth as well.

But that message is coming as the Chinese economy is already slowing down considerably, with growth falling to an annual pace of about 7.5 percent, down from a peak of more than 14 percent in 2007, before the global financial crisis.

More broadly, the emerging market economies that helped pull the world out of the global recession have cooled of late, dragging down the global growth rate with them. Growth remains sluggish in the United States, and much of Europe is mired in a recession.

“Growth in emerging market economies will remain high, much higher than in the advanced economies, but may be substantially lower than it was before the crisis,” said Olivier Blanchard, the I.M.F.'s chief economist, at a news briefing this month.

China is aware of the issues that the I.M.F. and other analysts have raised, and it generally agrees with them. Chinese policy makers have in part engineered the recent economic slowdown and have shown a willingness to make changes. But there are few details now about how the new Chinese government might move to revamp the nation’s economy, with more elaboration expected after a major Communist Party meeting this fall.

Policy makers in Beijing are aware of the issues that the I.M.F. and other analysts have raised and are aiming to restructure the economy in a bid to make future growth more sustainable. The fact that China’s population is aging — and its labor force gradually shrinking — adds to the pressure for structural overhauls.

The authorities are now aiming to raise domestic consumption and productivity, reduce China’s reliance on exports and construction investment, and rein in financial risks flagged in the I.M.F.'s report.

In recent weeks, Beijing has made it increasingly clear that it is prepared to tolerate a slower pace of growth as it pursues those goals and that there will be no repeat of an aggressive stimulus that followed the global financial crisis.

Prime Minister Li Keqiang reiterated that message in comments reported by the official Xinhua news agency on Wednesday. Although he acknowledged that the economy faced risks and challenges, he said, it remained ‘‘generally stable,'’ according to Xinhua.

And while the authorities must work to "keep economic growth within a reasonable range," they would aim to deploy ‘‘targeted’’ policies and "not change the direction of policies based only on temporary changes in economic barometers," Xinhua quoted Mr. Li as saying.

“Beijing is trying to boost public confidence and emphasize the seriousness of its intention by reiterating the need to stabilize growth," Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, wrote in a note on Wednesday, referring to Mr. Li’s comments. "We expect further modest fiscal stimulus to put a floor on growth.”

Bettina Wassener contributed reporting from Hong Kong.