Matriz energetica mundial e americana: o que vem pela frente? - Meghan O'Sullivan

Colleagues and Friends,

Energy has always been a big driver of international affairs. Just think how the shift from wood to coal helped catalyze the industrial revolution. Could today’s unprecedented, American-led energy boom lead to similarly seismic shifts?

My new book, Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power, argues that it already has. Indeed, America’s homegrown energy prowess is affecting much more than domestic consumers – it is reshaping power politics around the world.

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Expanded U.S. oil and natural gas production has transformed energy markets, bringing new political and market forces to bear that affect Russia, China, and the countries of Europe and the Middle East in particular. For example, today’s energy dynamics have not only damaged the finances of Middle Eastern governments, but they have also propelled new efforts at major reforms. Moreover, the strategic partnership between Russia and China is now strained by the surfeit of global energy, whereas just a few years ago, analysts anticipated energy could be the lubricant to a better relationship. And though Russia will remain a major exporter of natural gas to Europe, its political leverage from this trade has been weakened by the fact that natural gas markets are now more flush with supplies, more integrated, and offer their customers more choices.

In writing and researching Windfall, I traveled to more than two dozen countries and conducted hundreds of interviews with policymakers, activists, industry officials, academics, and opinion leaders. In every place, my sources had pressing stories to tell about how the changing energy landscape has created new political challenges or opportunities. In bringing these stories together with extensive analysis and research into energy trends and technologies, I hope to convince my readers that they cannot fully understand what is happening in the world today without taking energy and energy markets into account. Energy is – and has been – a much more important driver of foreign affairs than so many other factors given much more attention by pundits, policymakers, and academics.

You can get a taste for the book by reading my op-ed in last Friday’s New York Times, which argues that the Trump Administration needs to take into account the many ways in which its non-energy policies are hurting America’s ability to capitalize on its energy fortunes. You could also check out last Friday’s Bloomberg View, which is running a short excerpt from Windfall.

I invite you to read Windfall. And I welcome your comments, criticisms, and questions.

Meghan O'Sullivan | Follow Me on Twitter
Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Director, Geopolitics of Energy Project, Belfer Center
Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations