O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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Mostrando postagens com marcador economia austriaca. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador economia austriaca. Mostrar todas as postagens

domingo, 26 de agosto de 2012

Padrao Ouro e Economia Austriaca: Barry Eichengreen desmonta a defesa

O economista Barry Eichengreen é muito conhecido para ser apresentado. Autor de Globalizing Capital (com edição brasileira) é um dos especialistas mais conhecidos em sistemas monetários.
Neste longo artigo para a revista americana National Interest, ele critica os defensores da volta ao padrão ouro (Ron Paul e os adeptos da economia austríaca em geral), dizendo que não há garantias de que uma política monetária baseada no ouro, em moedas concorrentes, na ausência de bancos centrais seria mais eficiente, ou causaria menos crises e recessões do que a situação atual, de intervencionismo monetário.
Vale a pena a ler seu artigo, que começa aqui e se prolonga em sete outras partes...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

A Critique of Pure Gold

National Interest 
  •  
    issue
    GOLD IS back, what with libertarians the country over looking to force the government out of the business of monetary-policy making. How? Well, by bringing back the gold standard of course.
    There’s no better place to see just how real this oddball proposal is than in Iowa, with its caucuses just a few months away. In June, prospective voters were entertained not just by the candidates but also by the spectacle of an eighteen-day, multicity bus tour cosponsored by the Iowa Tea Party and American Principles in Action, or APIA. (The bus was actually a giant RV with a banner on the side featuring images of the U.S. Constitution, the American flag and the web addresswww.teapartybustour.com.) APIA is the nonprofit 501(c)(4) arm of the American Principles Project, the parent group of Gold Standard 2012. Gold Standard 2012 “works to reach out to lawmakers to advance legislation that will put the U.S. back on the gold standard” (quoting its blog). The goal of the bus tour, according to Jeff Bell, policy director of APIA and former Reagan aide, was to interest potential caucus voters in the idea that the United States should return to the gold standard, in the expectation that vote-hungry candidates for the Republican nomination would respond to a public groundswell.
    The candidates, for their part, were cautious. Businessman Herman Cain, having backed the gold standard in earlier speeches, acknowledged a change of heart on the grounds that “one of my economic advisers said that it’s going to be more difficult than practical.” Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann averred only that she would “take a close look at the gold standard issue.” Such caution did not, however, prevent Cain and Bachmann, along with former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich from joining up with APIA’s magical mystery tour.
    Nor did it prevent state legislators from attempting to move ahead on their own. A Montana measure voted down by a narrow margin of fifty-two to forty-eight in March would have required wholesalers to pay state tobacco taxes in gold. A proposal introduced in the Georgia legislature would have called for the state to accept only gold and silver for all payments, including taxes, and to use the metals when making payments on the state’s debt.
    In May, Utah became the first state to actually adopt such a policy. Gold and silver coins minted by the U.S. government were made legal tender under a measure signed into law by Governor Gary Herbert. Given the difficulty of paying for a tank of gas with a $50 American eagle coin worth some $1,500 at current market prices, entrepreneurs then floated the idea of establishing private depositories that would hold the coin and issue debit cards loaded up with its current dollar value. It is unlikely this will appeal to the average motorist contemplating a trip to the gas station since the dollar value of the balance would fluctuate along with the current market price of gold. It would be the equivalent of holding one’s savings in the form of volatile gold-mining stocks.
    Historically, societies attracted to using gold as legal tender have dealt with this problem by empowering their governments to fix its price in domestic-currency terms (in the U.S. case, in dollars). But the idea that government should legislate the price of a particular commodity, be it gold, milk or gasoline, sits uneasily with conservative Republicanism’s commitment to letting market forces work, much less with Tea Party–esque libertarianism. Surely a believer in the free market would argue that if there is an increase in the demand for gold, whatever the reason, then the price should be allowed to rise, giving the gold-mining industry an incentive to produce more, eventually bringing that price back down. Thus, the notion that the U.S. government should peg the price, as in gold standards past, is curious at the least. More curious still is the belief that putting the United States on a gold standard would somehow guarantee balanced budgets, low taxes, small government and a healthy economy. Most curious of all is the contention that under twenty-first-century circumstances going back to the gold standard is even possible.
    FOR THIS libertarian infatuation with the gold standard, one is tempted to credit, or blame, the godfather of the Tea Party movement, Texas’s Ron Paul. (The Tea Party has its own spontaneous origins, to be sure, and Paul is reluctant to claim credit for its existence. But his success in using new media to raise $6 million for his 2007 presidential bid on the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party by appealing to hot-button issues like debt, taxes and government infringement on personal liberties provided the template for the movement’s subsequent growth.) Paul has been campaigning for returning to the gold standard longer than any of his rivals for the Republican nomination—in fact, since he first entered politics in the 1970s.
      Começa aqui e se prolonga: 

    domingo, 22 de julho de 2012

    Economia Austriaca: curso virtual na Virtual Mises University


    Virtual Mises University
    by Mises Institute on July 21, 2012

    Over the course of 27 years, Mises Institute scholars have crafted and perfected a world-class week-long intensive program in Austrian economics: Mises University. This program has changed the lives of thousands of undergraduate students. Now, thanks to the support of our generous donors, it can change your life too, even if you cannot make it to Auburn. You can enroll in Virtual Mises University, and partake in the intellectual feast over the Internet.
    Virtual Mises University offers live broadcasts throughout each day of the conference of all the core Mises University lectures.  But you DON’T have to be available during the broadcast times to take the course. Video recordings of the core lectures, and audio recordings of all the lectures will also be posted to the course page afterward, and will remain available long after the course is over. The course provides all of the readings that are required for the on-site attendees, as well as dedicated social and academic forums for students to discuss what they are learning and network with others who share their passion.
    The online course also provides digital copies of any lecture materials (powerpoints, handouts, etc.) used by professors during their presentation.
    Students who post in the course academic forum at least 10 times will be able to download a Certificate of Participation.
    We are very excited to be able to offer this unmatched educational experience to anyone in the world, without being limited by physical space or geographic proximity.
    Thanks to our generous donors, we are able to provide unlimited access to Virtual Mises University for only $20!
    (No refunds.  All registrations for this program are final.)
    Broadcast schedule (All times are Central Standard):
    Sunday, July 22 — 8:00 p.m.
    Monday, July 23 — 9:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.; 1:30 – 5:15 p.m.
    Tuesday, July 24 — 9:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.; 1:30 – 5:00 p.m.
    Wednesday, July 25 — 11:30 a.m.; 4:00 p.m.
    Thursday, July 26 — 9:00 a.m.; 4:00 p.m.
    Friday, July 27 — 2:45 p.m.
    Saturday, July 28 — 1:30 p.m.
    The Faculty
    Mises University faculty are among the finest scholars of Austrian Economics and libertarian political theory in the world.
    • Joseph Salerno (MU Director), Pace University & Mises Institute
    • Philipp Bagus, University Rey Juan Carlos
    • Walter Block, Loyola University, New Orleans
    • Thomas DiLorenzo, Loyola University Maryland
    • Lucas Engelhardt, Kent State University
    • Roger Garrison, Auburn University
    • David Gordon, Mises Review
    • Jeffrey Herbener, Grove City College
    • Robert Higgs, The Independent Institute
    • Guido Hulsmann, University of Angers
    • Peter Klein, University of Missouri
    • Roderick Long, Auburn University
    • Robert Murphy, Consulting by RPM
    • Gary North, GaryNorth.com
    • Timothy Terrell, Wofford College
    • Mark Thornton, Mises Institute & Auburn University
    • Thomas Woods, Mises Institute
    • Leland Yeager, Auburn University
    Virtual Mises University 2012 Schedule
    Special thanks to the generous donors who made Virtual Mises University possible.
    All times are central daylight time.
    Green events will be broadcast live, video recorded, and audio recorded.
    Orange events will be video recorded and audio recorded
    only.
    Red events will be audio recorded only.
    Sunday  July 22
    8:00 p.m.
    Welcome  Thornton  (Wolfe Lecture Hall)
    8:15 p.m.  Warfare, Welfare, and the State  Higgs
    Monday  July 23
    9:00 – 10:00 a.m.         The Birth of the Austrian School  Salerno
    10:15 – 11:15 a.m.       Subjective Value and Market Prices  Herbener
    11:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m.  Praxeology: The Method of Economics Gordon                               
    1:30 – 2:30 p.m.           The Division of Labor and Social Order  Hulsmann
    2:45 – 3:45 p.m.           Money Bagus
    4:00 – 5:00 p.m.           Austrian Capital Theory  Garrison
    6:30 p.m.                     An Evening with Tom Woods (optional)
    Tuesday  July 24
    9:00 – 10:00 a.m.         An Austrian Critique of Mainstream Economics Block
    10:15 – 11:15 a.m.       Calculation and Socialism   Salerno
    11:30 a.m.-12:30p.m.  Production and the Firm   Klein
    1:30 – 2:30 p.m.           Monopoly, Competition, and Antitrust  DiLorenzo
    2:45 – 3:45 p.m.           Banking and Financial Markets  Bagus

    4:00 – 5:00 p.m.           The Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle  Garrison
    Wednesday  July 25
    9:00 -10:00 a.m.          Concurrent Sessions

    1.  Market for Security  Murphy
    (Explains how a free market could provide defense and legal services without a government monopoly.)

     *  2. Errors, Business Cycles, and Government Stimulus  Engelhardt (Highlights the role of error in the Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle, gives some justification for this role, and highlights how the most “effective” government stimulus will also be the biggest waste of resources.)
    10:15 – 11:15 a.m.       Concurrent Sessions
    1.  Everyday Logic of Economics  Gordon (Explains how economic reasoning applies to some current problems and discusses common fallacies.                                    
    2.  Hayek and Keynes: Head to Head Garrison (Graphical demonstration that relaxing three critical-but-implausible  assumptions underlying Keynes’s theorizing allows the Keynesian framework to morph into the Austrian framework.)
    11:30am-12:30pm       The Market for Quality Assurance Higgs
    1:30 – 2:30 p.m.           Concurent Sessions
    1.  Contrasting Views of the Great Depression  Murphy (Explains the Austrian, Keynesian, and monetarist explanations of the Great Depression.)
    2.  Environmental & Resource Economics Terrell
    2:45 – 3:45 p.m.           Concurrent Sessions

    1.  Economics and Property Rights: Alternative Approaches  Block
    * 2.  Financial Markets in a Free Society Hulsmann (The nature and scope of financial markets.)

    4:00 – 5:00 p.m.
    Mises and Rothbard: Differences on Economic Theory and Political Economy  Faculty Panel with Q&A (Block, Gordon, Herbener, Higgs, Hulsmann, Klein, Salerno) 
    Thursday  July 26
    9:00 – 10:00 a.m.         The Case for Privatization — of Everything   Block
    10:15 – 11:15 a.m.       Concurrent Sessions
    1. Political Entrepreneurship and the Economics of Wealth Destruction DiLorenzo  (Economics of political trickery and its wealth-destroying effects.)
    2. Common Objections to Capitalism  Terrell
    11:30am-12:30pm       Concurrent Sessions
    1. The Economics of the Drug War Thornton (Many people oppose the “war on drugs” but only Austrian economic analysis shows why it is economically irrational.)
                                
    * 2. The Economics of Deflation  Hulsmann (Advanced lecture on the causes and consequences of deflation, highlighting the liberating impact of deflation.)
    1:30 – 2:30 p.m.           Concurrent Sessions
    1. The Corrupt Origins of Central Banking in America  DiLorenzo (The real purpose of central banking was to enlarge the state and destroy constitutional limitations on government.)
    * 2.  Entrepreneurs vs. Game Theory  Engelhardt (Questions some common applications of game theory, such as the Prisoners’ Dilemma, by highlighting how entrepreneurs can change the very structure of the “game” being played – leading to different outcomes than a more traditional, static view of game theory suggets.)
    2:45 – 3:45 p.m.           Concurrent Sessions
    1. The Problems with Keynesian Solutions to the Current Depression Murphy  (Focuses on the specific commentary of Paul Krugman and other Keynesians regarding Obama stimulus and Bernanke’s inflation.)
    2. Prediction and the Business Cycle Thornton (Ever wonder why Austrian economists have called every major economic crisis while mainstream economists have not?)
    4:00 – 5:00 p.m.           The Austrian School in the Present Crisis  Tom Woods
    Friday July 27 
    9:00 – 10:00 a.m.         Concurrent Sessions
    1. The Eurocrisis Bagus

    2. Mises and Friedman on Method Long 
    (Explains how Milton Friedman’s rejection of Austrian realism and his rejection of Austrian apriorism are both rooted in a confusion over the nature of abstraction and the relation between logic and psychology.)
    10:15 -11:15 a.m.       Concurrent Sessions

    1. Hayek and Friedman: Head to Head  Garrison (Contrasts Chicago school’s focus on “macroeconomic variations of substantial size and frequency” with Austrian school’s focus on “market forces hidden from the untrained eye” to demonstrate superiority of Austrian theory.)
    2. Issues in the Economics of Medical Care Terrell
    11:30am-12:30pm       Concurrent Sessions
    1. International Monetary Systems Salerno
    2. Apriorism and Positivism in the Social Sciences Gordon (Compares and contrasts Mises’s praxeology with Positivism.)
    1:30 – 2:30 p.m.           Concurrent Sessions
    1.  Theory and History Gordon (Discusses Mises’s views on historical explanation and his criticism of  Marxism.)
    * 2.  Time Preference Theory of Interest & Its Critics Herbener (A restatement of the pure time preference theory advanced by Frank Fetter, Ludwig von Mises, and Murray Rothbard and defense of the theory from its critics.)
    2:45 – 3:45 p.m.           Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship  Klein
    4:00 – 5:45 p.m.           Panels
    1. Philosophy & Theory: Garrison, Hulsmann, Long, Herbener, Gordon, Salerno, Bagus
    2. History: DiLorenzo, Klein, Thornton, Terrell, Woods, Engelhardt, Murphy 
    Saturday  July 28
    9:00 – 10:00 a.m.         Concurrent Sessions
    * 1. Microeconomics of Central Banking  Klein (The  organization, management, governance, and incentives of central banks.)
    2. Anti-Market Mythology   DiLorenzo  (The phony mythology of “natural monopoly,” “asymmetric information,” “path dependence,” antitrust, and other anti-market fables)
    10:15 – 11:15 a.m.       Concurrent Sessions
    1. The Ethics of Money Production Hulsmann (Advanced lecture presenting the economic and moral case against  fiat money.)
    * 2. On the Impossibility of Central Planning  Engelhardt (Describes the Information and Computation problems.)
    11:30am-12:30pm       Panel on Monetary Policy:  Salerno, Hulsmann, Thornton, Garrison, Bagus, Engelhardt, Murphy 
    1:30 – 2:30 p.m.           Economics: Job vs Calling   Gary North
    ——-
    * Recommended for economics majors.

    domingo, 26 de junho de 2011

    A grande depressao de 1946 (que nao existiu) - Keynesianos vs Austriacos

    Um artigo que me foi recomendado pelo Gabriel Oliva (estudante de economia baiano, na FEA-USP), apreciador da Escola Austríaca de Economia:

    "The Great Depression of 1946", Richard K. Vedder and Lowell Gallaway
    The Review of Austrian Economics, vol. 5, n. 2, 1991, p. 3-32
    link: http://econstories.tv/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/The-Great-Depression-of-1946.pdf

    Transcrevo a mensagem do Gabriel e recomendo a leitura do artigo acima:

    - Os economistas keynesianos na época em que a guerra estava terminando estavam todos fazendo previsões catastróficas sobre o que aconteceria com a economia americana depois de terminada a 2ª Guerra Mundial. Eles diziam que haveria uma profunda depressão econômica. O Hayek foi um dos poucos nessa época que falava que isso tudo era uma bobagem. Tem um trabalho interessante que fala sobre isso com o título irônico de "The Great Depression of 1946" disponível nesse link: http://econstories.tv/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/The-Great-Depression-of-1946.pdf

    -Hayek, e o seu mentor Mises, foram um dos pouquíssimos economistas que previram a Grande Depressão de 1929. Em Fevereiro de 1929, Hayek escreveu: "O boom entrará em colapso nos próximos meses". No verão do mesmo ano, Mises rejeitou um alto posto num dos bancos mais importantes da Europa, com a justificativa de que "...uma grande recessão está chegando e eu não quero que o meu nome esteja de alguma forma relacionado a ela". Na minha opinião, a Teoria Austríaca dos Ciclos Econômicos, desenvolvida exatamente por Mises e Hayek, é a única que consegue explicar de forma satisfatória a ocorrência desse fenômeno. Sobre essa teoria, eu recomendo o seguinte artigo do prof. Ubiratan Iorio (UERJ): http://www.ubirataniorio.org/teoria.pdf

    (...)
    -Não existe tal coisa como uma "teologia" do liberalismo. A retratação dos liberais como sendo "fundamentalistas" de livre-mercado é quase sempre feita por gente que não entende absolutamente nada dos pensadores liberais, principalmente os economistas. Existem diversas teorias extremamente sérias que embasam a defesa das liberdade providas por estudiosos de várias matizes econômicas como a Escola Austríaca, a Escola de Chicago, a Escola da Escolha Pública e a Escola das Expectativas Racionais, entre outras. Quem fala que a defesa do liberalismo econômico só pode ser feita através de uma profissão de fé no livre mercado demonstra que desconhece completamente as teorias desenvolvidas por essas Escolas Econômicas.

    Voilà, c'est tout dit!
    Paulo Roberto de Almeida