O Brasil no Council on Foreign Relations: em 2001 e em 2011

Percepções do Brasil no mundo
Celso Lafer
O Estado de S.Paulo, 21 de agosto de 2011

"Política é nuvem, vai tomando novas formas." "Tão importante quanto o fato são as versões que assume." Essas frases apontam para o fato de que a palavra política designa ao mesmo tempo a realidade e a consciência que dela tomamos. Por isso, a percepção da realidade faz parte da própria realidade e o jogo da vida pública transita pela interação dos acontecimentos com múltiplos significados que lhes atribuímos ao conhecê-los.

Essa interação caracteriza as sociedades contemporâneas, que, por serem voltadas para o futuro, vivem impregnadas pela noção de risco, com as suas dimensões de probabilidade e incerteza. Por essa razão, hoje em dia as expectativas têm, num mundo interdependente, um papel decisivo, tanto na vida econômica quanto na política.

As agências de rating de crédito dos países impactam, positiva ou negativamente, as economias porque sinalizam expectativas dos riscos futuros da sua sustentabilidade. Também na vida política as percepções sobre a qualidade ou imperícia das lideranças no trato dos problemas, os méritos ou deméritos das instituições, a natureza dos conflitos vão tecendo os cenários de expectativas que cercam a dinâmica de funcionamento de um sistema político. Na elaboração das percepções políticas e econômicas atuam os meios de comunicação, as redes sociais e a instância dos analistas qualificados.

O mesmo ocorre na apreciação dos ativos e passivos de um país no plano internacional, a partir de duas vertentes de estimativa. A primeira diz respeito à configuração da ordem mundial. A segunda resulta das características do seu desenvolvimento interno. Um bom exemplo da dinâmica desse processo de ponderação das expectativas é o contraste entre a avaliação feita em fevereiro de 2001 por um grupo de trabalho do Council on Foreign Relations, coordenado por Kenneth Maxwell, e o recém-publicado relatório elaborado pelo grupo de trabalho conduzido por Julia Zweig. Ambos analisam o papel do Brasil no mundo e as relações entre o nosso país e os Estados Unidos, e provêm de uma reputada instituição norte-americana dedicada ao entendimento do mundo e das opções da política externa dos EUA. Os dois relatórios têm, para nós, o mérito de articular o significado da percepção do Outro, que é tão importante para a condução da política externa num mundo globalizado.

O relatório de 2001 é sucinto, em contraste com o de 2011, que é muito mais abrangente e analítico. O de 2001 foi elaborado numa época de primazia dos EUA no mundo. O de 2011 leva em conta que os EUA precisam adaptar-se às novas realidades de uma ordem multipolar. O relatório de 2001 tem como pano de fundo as crises financeiras da década de 1990, que afetaram o Brasil. Reconhece avanços positivos no plano interno e identifica o Brasil como um ator de inquestionável peso regional com interesses gerais no funcionamento do sistema internacional. O relatório de 2011 tem como horizonte a positiva maneira como o nosso país lidou com a crise financeira de 2008 e reconhece que o Brasil alcançou um novo patamar de presença no mundo multipolar da atualidade, tanto como ator global quanto como motor do crescimento da América do Sul. Daí, para os EUA e os países latino-americanos, a importância de ajustarem suas percepções ao significado da ascensão brasileira no mundo. Nesse contexto, o relatório recomenda ao governo norte-americano endossar o pleito brasileiro de um lugar permanente no Conselho de Segurança da ONU. No trato das relações Brasil-EUA, explora o espaço das convergências e lida, com sensibilidade diplomática, com as diferenças de perspectivas e interesses.

O relatório destaca o cumulativo impacto positivo dos últimos 16 anos, proveniente das Presidências FHC e Lula, realçando o significado da consolidação democrática, dos méritos das políticas econômicas que levaram ao controle da inflação e das políticas sociais de inclusão que propiciaram o declínio das desigualdades de renda e a emergência de uma nova classe média.

O relatório de 2011 aponta para os avanços positivos dos ativos brasileiros relevantes para a presença do nosso país no mundo (agricultura, mineração, energia, meio ambiente, etc.) e também indica a agenda de desafios para o futuro da sua sustentabilidade. Entre eles, o da melhoria da educação, o do necessário aprofundamento do que está sendo feito no campo da pesquisa e da inovação, da superação do significativo déficit de infraestrutura, que compromete a logística e a competitividade do País.

A temática da sustentabilidade do novo patamar da presença do Brasil no mundo comporta, como é natural, outras facetas internas e externas que não foram circunstanciadamente examinadas no relatório. Do ponto de vista político, quero, como cidadão, realçar o significado de um grande item para a democracia brasileira tão presente no debate nacional: o da corrupção.

A democracia baseia-se na confiança recíproca entre os cidadãos e na destes nas instituições. A corrupção (que vem do latim corrumpere e significa destruir) é um agente de decomposição da substância das instituições públicas. Tem um alcance que vai além das condutas transgressivas individuais, pois enseja o que Raymond Aron chama de corrupção do espírito público por conta do intercâmbio clandestino entre o mercado político e o econômico. No caso do nosso país, estamos presenciando o comprometimento do espírito público que norteou a redemocratização e a elaboração da Constituição de 1988 e que, ao propiciar uma cultura política de ampliação da cidadania, foi o grande ponto de partida das positivas transformações do Brasil. O episódio do "mensalão" foi o momento inaugural da negativa inflexão do espírito público.

Cabe lidar com esse desafio, levando em conta o que dizia Machado de Assis: "A corrupção escondida vale tanto como pública, a diferença é que não fede".

PROFESSOR TITULAR DA FACULDADE DE DIREITO DA USP, MEMBRO DA ACADEMIA BRASILEIRA DE CIÊNCIAS E DA ACADEMIA BRASILEIRA DE LETRAS, FOI MINISTRO DAS RELAÇÕES EXTERIORES NO GOVERNO FHC

Brasil esnobou os EUA - Alberto Tamer

Concordo com o Alberto Tamer: em mais de 30 anos de carreira diplomática, sempre marcada, no início, por conflitos latentes e abertos entre os EUA -- geralmente por protecionismo setorial americano, por protecionismo generalizado brasileiro, pirataria e contrafação de produtos e serviços americanos no mercado brasileiro, por excesso de terceiro-mundismo em determinadas votações da ONU e em negociações comerciais -- eu nunca tinha visto os EUA nos tratarem tão bem como nos diversos governos desde a era Clinton-FHC (que representou, definitivamente, uma mudança de postura, das duas partes), e que se prolongou, contra todas as expectativas iniciais, na era Bush-Lula. Isto a despeito de todas as caneladas que este último deu na administração americana -- oposição ultra-ativa à aventura americana no Iraque, implosão na Alca, hostilidade geral em relação à política sul-americana de Washington, a começar pela animosidade em relação à Colômbia e muita amizade em relação a caudilhos populistas e outras lideranças anti-americanas, a aventura hondurenha tão bisonha, patética e contrária à Constituição e aos tratados internacionais, enfim, a despeito de tudo isso -- e das amizades estranhas cultivadas nesse período (com uns ditadores espalhados por ai, por exemplo), com tudo isso os EUA ainda nos trataram bem, quase como gente grande (o que é difícil para os EUA, convenhamos).
Nós é que esnobamos os EUA e nos esforçamos ativamente para afastá-los da América do Sul, o que de certa forma foi conseguido. Os que sairam ganhando foram os chineses, não os brasileiros, como sonhavam equivocadamente certos "planejadores" governamentais (que aliás não planejam e nunca planejaram nada de correto). No plano do comércio internacional, justamente, a tal de "nova geografia do comércio internacional" estava plenamente de acordo com os interesses chineses, menos com os interesses brasileiros. Patético...
Vivendo e aprendendo...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brasil esnobou os EUA. Errou
Alberto Tamer
O Estado de S. Paulo, Quinta-feira, Julho 21, 2011

Um estudo que levou três anos do respeitadíssimo Council of Foreign Relations, divulgado na semana passada, afirma que os Estados Unidos deveriam dar mais atenção ao Brasil, um país que desponta no cenário mundial. Não é bem assim. É meia-verdade. Os EUA têm dado muita atenção, sim, quem rejeitou até agora foi o governo brasileiro, que praticou uma política externa de fogo de artifício, brilham por segundos e desaparecem.

O Brasil apoiou o Irã na questão nuclear, se aproximou de Hugo Chávez e relegou o mercado americano a um segundo plano.

Além disso, o ex-presidente Lula manteve no cargo por oito anos Celso Amorim, talvez o pior ministro das Relações Exteriores que o Brasil já teve. Uma das nossas colunas denunciou esse fato, afirmando que "a ideologia atrapalhava o comércio brasileiro". Tudo o que vinha dos EUA era ruim para o Brasil, só que o mercado americano é apenas o maior do mundo... Eles importam anualmente US$ 1,1 trilhão! E nós exportamos para eles, no ano passado, sabem quanto? US$ 19,4 bilhões...

Esnobamos os EUA, que importam 66% de tudo que vendemos em produtos industrializados e nos apegamos agora à China que compra só commodities agrícolas, petróleo, soja, e exporta para o Brasil 90% de industrializados.

Melhorando, mas pouco. A situação está melhorando no atual governo, mas temos muito a recuperar. No primeiro semestre, as exportações para os EUA cresceram 30%, mas são apenas 10% das vendas totais do Brasil. E isso porque importam industrializados, produtos nos quais perdemos espaço para a China nos Estados Unidos, no mundo e... aqui também. E querem saber quanto? Uma enormidade!

Vejam só isso! Os números do Bureau of Economics Accounts, (BEA) dos Estados Unidos assustam . Em 2002, os Estados Unidos importaram, de todos os países, o equivalente a US$ 693,10 bilhões. Pois em 2010, passaram para US$ 1,28 trilhão. Foi um crescimento de 84,43%. A variação até 2008 foi um pouco maior, 85,75%, e é fácil compreender essa diferença, porque 2009 e 2010 foram anos de recessão e, portanto, de importações menores.

E o Brasil nisso? As vendas brasileiras para os Estados Unidos cresceram 94,1% até 2008, ano da recessão. Quando se considera a diferença entre 2002 e 2010, a expansão é de apenas 52,92%, porque a demanda americana encolheu nos últimos dois anos. No conjunto, parece um desempenho satisfatório, mas não é porque vários outros países aumentaram as vendas em mais de 100% para o mercado americano, deixando o Brasil para trás a ver estrelas.

Eles crescem mais de 100%! Apesar de sobrecarregar o leitor com números, vamos dar as importações americanas em dois períodos, 2002-2008 - ano de crise financeira - e 2008-2010, para evitar distorções entre os dois últimos anos de recessão e os anteriores, até 2002, quando eles importaram menos:importações do Brasil até 2008 - mais 94,15% até 2008. Desse ano, até o ano passado, mais 54,9%.

E vejam agora os outros. As importações da China até 2008 aumentaram nada menos que 170,58% (!!) e 191,68% (!!!) até 2010. Nos dois casos o ano base é 2002. Com crise e tudo. Quase quatro vezes mais do que o aumento das vendas brasileiras para os EUA. Pode-se ver que mesmo na fase de recessão, as importações da China quase dobraram!

O mesmo acontece com as importações da Índia, que aumentaram 118,72% até 2008 e 150,76% até 2010. De novo, crescimento enorme apesar da recessão. Conjunto das Américas Central e do Sul: 84,16% até 2008 e 78,47% até 2010. Considerando-se o período até 2010, portanto, a região teve um desempenho geral melhor que o do Brasil.

A conclusão é triste e simples: o Brasil deixou de dar prioridade ao mercado americano, em busca do sonho dos países do Sul, e perdeu espaço para outros países, mais realistas, que ocuparam o seu lugar. O Brasil errou e só agora está percebendo disso. Uma tarefa árdua e ingrata para o novo governo que pode levar anos.

Council on Foreign Relations, Report on Brazil (too optimistic?)

Pessoalmente considero que os membros da Task Force foram muito lenientes, compreensivos, positivos com relação ao Brasil.
Como eu sou um realista cético -- o que não quer dizer que sou pessimista, ou negativista -- eu faria um relatório diferente.
Mas, como a coordenadora é uma especialista em Cuba, na comparação o Brasil fica bem na foto...
E, considerando-se que a maior parte dos membro da Task Force - ver as minibiografias abaixo -- pretende realizar grandes coisas com o Brasil, no mundo dos negócios ou governamental, compreende-se que eles tenham sido positivos. Afinal de contas, é preciso dizer boas coisas para conseguir fazer negócios e receber convites de certas pessoas bem colocadas...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations
Task Force Report
Council on Foreign Relations

Chairs:
Samuel W. Bodman
James D. Wolfensohn, Chairman, Wolfensohn & Company, LLC
Director:
Julia E. Sweig, Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies and Director for Latin America Studies
Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations Press
Release Date: July 2011
128 pages
ISBN 978-0-87609-492-1
$15.00
Task Force Report No. 66

DOWNLOAD THE FULL TEXT OF THE REPORT HERE (2 MB PDF)
Appendix: U.S.-Brazil Bilateral Agreements (67K PDF)

Overview
July 12, 2011—Over the course of a generation, Brazil has emerged as both a driver of growth in South America and as an active force in world politics. A new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)-sponsored Independent Task Force report asserts “that it is in the interest of the United States to understand Brazil as a complex international actor whose influence on the defining global issues of the day is only likely to increase.”
Brazil currently ranks as the world’s fifth-largest landmass, fifth-largest population, and expects to soon be ranked the fifth largest economy. The report, Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, recommends that “U.S. policymakers recognize Brazil’s standing as a global actor, treat its emergence as an opportunity for the United States, and work with Brazil to develop complementary policies.”
The Task Force is chaired by former secretary of energy Samuel W. Bodman and former president of the World Bank James D. Wolfensohn, and directed by CFR Senior Fellow and Director for Latin America Studies, and Director of the Global Brazil Initiative Julia E. Sweig.
Recognizing Brazil’s global role, the report recommends that the Obama administration now fully endorse the country’s bid for a seat as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). It argues that “a formal endorsement from the United States for Brazil would go far to overcome lingering suspicion within the Brazilian government that the U.S. commitment to a mature relationship between equals is largely rhetorical.”
Domestically, Brazil’s “inclusive growth has translated into a significant reduction of inequality, an expansion of the middle class, and a vibrant economy, all framed within a democratic context.” Consequently, Brazil has been able to use its economic bona fides to leverage a stronger position in the international, commercial, and diplomatic arena.
The report stresses the importance of regular communication between the presidents of both countries. “Cooperation between the United States and Brazil holds too much promise for miscommunication or inevitable disagreements to stand in the way of potential gains.” A mature, working relationship means that “the United States and Brazil can help each other advance mutual interests even without wholesale policy agreements between the two,” notes the report.

The Task Force further recommends that
- the U.S. Congress “include an elimination of the ethanol tariff in any bill regarding reform to the ethanol and biofuel tax credit regime.”
- the United States “take the first step to waive visa requirements for Brazilians by immediately reviewing Brazil’s criteria for participation in the Visa Waiver Program.”
- the U.S. State Department create an Office for Brazilian Affairs and the National Security Council (NSC) centralize its efforts under a NSC director for Brazil in order to better coordinate the current decentralized U.S. policy.

The bipartisan Task Force includes thirty distinguished experts on Brazil who represent a range of perspectives and backgrounds. The report includes a number of additional views by Task Force members, including one that notes, “We believe that a more gradual approach [regarding Brazil’s inclusion as a full UNSC member] would likely have more success in navigating the diplomatic complexities presented by U.S. support for Brazil.” Another view asserts, “If the United States supports, as the Obama administration has said it does, leadership structures in international institutions that are more reflective of international realities, it must support without qualifications Brazil’s candidacy [for the UNSC].”

Task Force Members
Jed N. Bailey is an expert in energy markets in developing countries and the founder of the Popo Agie Group, an incubator focused on products and services that promote learning at all ages. He was previously vice president for applied research consulting at IHS CERA, where he was responsible for IHS CERA’s global bespoke research and consulting practice. Bailey is the author of over seventy IHS CERA reports and directed IHS CERA multiclient studies that examined the energy futures of Brazil, China, Mexico, South America, and Southeast Asia. He has been widely quoted in publications ranging from the Economist and the Financial Times to the Iran Daily and has appeared on Bloomberg Television and CNN International. His current projects at the Popo Agie Group include developing Kaleidoshapes, a large-scale construction and dramatic play toy for young children; experimenting with the graphical presentation of complex data; and exploring the use of narrative in corporate strategy and communications. Bailey holds a BS from the University of Wyoming and an MS from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Samuel W. Bodman served as U.S. secretary of energy from 2005 to 2009 and previously served as deputy secretary of the treasury and as deputy secretary of commerce. Bodman currently serves on the board of directors of the Hess Corporation, the AES Corporation, and Weatherford International. He is a trustee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cornell University, and the Carnegie Institution, as well as a lifetime trustee of the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is also a chairman of the advisory board of the University of Texas Energy Institute and a member of the energy task force of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He serves on the international advisory council of the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. Bodman earned a BS from Cornell University and a PhD from MIT, where he was also associate professor of chemical engineering. He began his work in the financial sector as technical director of the American Research and Development Corporation. In 1983 he became president and CEO of Fidelity Investments and a director of the Fidelity Group of Mutual Funds. In 1987, he joined Cabot Corporation, where he served as chairman, CEO, and director.

R. Nicholas Burns is professor of the practice of diplomacy and international politics at the Harvard Kennedy School and director of the future of diplomacy project and faculty chair for the programs on the Middle East and on India and South Asia. He serves on the board of directors of the school’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and on the boards of several nonprofit organizations. Ambassador Burns served in the U.S. Foreign Service for twenty-seven years until his retirement in April 2008, serving variously as undersecretary of state for political affairs, U.S. ambassador to NATO and Greece, and State Department spokesman. He was senior director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia affairs on the National Security Council and special assistant to President William J. Clinton and, before that, director for Soviet affairs in the George H.W. Bush administation. He also served at the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem and the U.S. embassies in Egypt and Mauritania. He has received the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award, Johns Hopkins University’s Woodrow Wilson Award for Public Service, and Boston College’s Alumni Achievement Award. He has a BA from Boston College and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Louis E. Caldera is the vice president of programs with the Jack Kent Cooke Foundation, where he leads the foundation’s scholarship and grant programs and is responsible for the foundation’s communications, information systems, program development, and evaluation functions. Caldera has a distinguished public service career that includes service as an officer in the U.S. Army, as a California legislator, as secretary of the army in the Clinton administration, and as president of the University of New Mexico. He also served in the Clinton administration as managing director and chief operating officer of the Corporation for National and Community Service. Prior to joining the Jack Kent Cooke Foundation, Caldera was a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, where he focused on higher education, immigration, and other public policy matters affecting poor and ethnically and racially diverse communities in the United States. He served on President Barack Obama’s Department of Defense transition team and was an assistant to the president and director of the White House Military Office in the early months of the Obama administration. Caldera is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and holds law and business degrees from Harvard University.

Eileen B. Claussen is the president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and Strategies for the Global Environment. Claussen is the former assistant secretary of state for oceans and international environmental and scientific affairs. Prior to joining the Department of State, Claussen served for three years as a special assistant to the president and senior director for global environmental affairs on the National Security Council. She has also served as chairman of the United Nations Multilateral Montreal Protocol Fund. Claussen was director of atmospheric programs at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), where she was responsible for activities related to the depletion of the ozone layer, Title IV of the Clean Air Act, and the EPA’s energy efficiency programs. Claussen is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Ecomagination advisory board, the Harvard environmental economics program advisory panel, and the U.S. Commodity Future Trading Commission’s advisory committee. She is the recipient of the Department of State’s Career Achievement Award and the Distinguished Executive Award for Sustained Extraordinary Accomplishment. She also served as the Timothy Atkeson scholar in residence at Yale University.

Nelson W. Cunningham is managing partner and a cofounder of McLarty Associates. Under his leadership, McLarty Associates has developed into a firm with global reach and over four dozen employees and advisers stationed in Washington and around the world. Cunningham served as special adviser to President Clinton on Western Hemisphere affairs and as general counsel at the White House Office of Administration. He previously served as general counsel to Chairman Joseph R. Biden of the Senate Judiciary Committee, focusing on constitutional, judicial, and criminal justice matters. He also served as an assistant U.S. attorney in the southern district of New York from 1988 to 1994. Cunningham was a campaign adviser and member of the Obama-Biden transition team and was a foreign policy and trade adviser to John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign as well as to those of other Democratic candidates. He is an active member of the boards of the Institute of the Americas, the Business Council for International Understanding, the American Security Project, and the U.S.-India Business Council and is a member of the Yale president’s council on international activities, the Department of State’s advisory committee on international economic policy, the Export-Import Bank advisory committee, the Council of the Americas, and the Council on Foreign Relations. Cunningham is a graduate of Yale College and Stanford Law School.

Eli Whitney Debevoise II is a senior partner in the law firm of Arnold & Porter LLP, with particular involvement in international financial transactions, public policy, international arbitration, multijurisdictional litigation, banking, and international trade. The firm acts as legal counsel to Brazil on certain transactional and litigation matters. He rejoined Arnold & Porter LLP in 2010 after serving as U.S. executive director of the World Bank beginning in 2007. During his tenure at the bank, he had a leading role in capital increase and share realignment negotiations and participated in preparations for G8 and G20 summits. Debevoise has lectured at Harvard Law School, Yale Law School, the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, and the Hungarian Institute for the Training of Bankers. In 2010, he gave the Lauder leadership lecture at the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written articles on sovereign finance, international banking, international arbitration, securities regulation, World Trade Organization dispute resolution, U.S. export controls, and sovereign immunity. Debevoise graduated from Yale University and Harvard Law School. He holds an honorary doctorate in law from the Vermont Law School and is a recipient of the Order of Rio Branco.

Paula J. Dobriansky is the senior vice president and global head of government and regulatory affairs at Thomson Reuters. She is an adjunct senior fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and holds the distinguished national security chair at the U.S. Naval Academy. From May 2001 to January 2009, Ambassador Dobriansky served as undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs; in February 2007, she was appointed the president’s special envoy on Northern Ireland. She served as senior vice president and director of the Washington office of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and as CFR’s first George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies. Her other government appointments include associate director for policy and programs at the United States Information Agency, deputy assistant secretary of state for human rights and humanitarian affairs, and director of European and Soviet affairs on the National Security Council. From 1997 to 2001, she served on the U.S. Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy. Ambassador Dobriansky received a BSFS from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and an MA and PhD from Harvard University. She is a recipient of various honors, including the secretary of state’s highest honor, the Distinguished Service Medal.

Shepard L. Forman is director emeritus and senior fellow of the Center on International Cooperation at New York University. Prior to founding the center, he directed the human rights and governance and international affairs programs at the Ford Foundation. He serves on the boards of the International Peace Institute, the Global Fairness Initiative, Peace Dividend Trust, and Scholars at Risk, among others. Forman received his PhD in anthropology from Columbia University and did postdoctoral studies in economic development at the Institute of Development Studies in Sussex, England. He served on the faculty at Indiana University, the University of Chicago, and the University of Michigan and conducted field research in Brazil and East Timor. He has authored two books on Brazil and numerous articles and policy papers on humanitarian assistance and postconflict reconstruction assistance and statebuilding. He is coeditor, with Stewart Patrick, of Good Intentions: Pledges of Aid to Countries Emerging from Conflict and Multilateralism and U.S. Foreign Policy: Ambivalent Engagement; with Romita Ghosh of Promoting Reproductive Health: Investing in Health for Development; and, with Bruce Jones and Richard Gowen, of Cooperating for Peace and Security. He also edited Diagnosing America: Anthropology and Public Policy, which examines the application of anthropological studies to social problems in the United States.

José A. Fourquet serves as a managing director of the DBS Financial Group, one of the largest financial advisory firms in the state of Florida. Prior to that, Fourquet worked for four years as a managing director and head of the Miami private investment management branch of Lehman Brothers, Inc. Before joining Lehman, President George W. Bush nominated Fourquet and the U.S. Senate unanimously confirmed him to serve as U.S. executive director of the Inter-American Development Bank from 2001 to 2004. Prior, Fourquet worked for five years as a vice president in the fixed income, currency, and commodities division of Goldman, Sachs & Co., in New York. Fourquet began his career as an operations officer in the Central Intelligence Agency and spent over six years posted abroad in Latin America and the Caribbean, where he collected, evaluated, and reported high-priority intelligence of interest to U.S. policymakers. Fourquet graduated from Georgetown University with a BA in government and a School of Foreign Service special certificate in Latin American studies. He also obtained an MBA in finance from Columbia Business School, where he was inducted into the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.

Maria C. Freire is president of the Albert and Mary Lasker Foundation. Prior to this, she led the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development, transforming the organization into a world leader in tuberculosis drug development. An internationally recognized expert in technology commercialization, Freire directed the Office of Technology Transfer at the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and established the Office of Technology Development at the University of Maryland at Baltimore and in Baltimore County. Freire obtained her BS at Universidad Peruano Cayetano Heredia (Lima, Peru) and her PhD in biophysics from the University of Virginia. Active on the NIH advisory committee to the director, the international advisory steering committee of the Instituto Carlos Slim de la Salud (Mexico), the Association of American Medical Colleges advisory panel on research, and the international advisory panel to the Ministerial Working Group on Scaling up of Primary Health Systems, Freire was one of ten commissioners selected for the World Health Organization’s Commission on Intellectual Property Rights, Innovation and Public Health (CIPIH). A member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies of Science, she has received the Department of Health and Human Services Secretary’s Award for Distinguished Service, the Arthur S. Flemming Award, and the Bayh-Dole Award.

Stanley A. Gacek* is a labor lawyer with both U.S. and international experience. He is a recognized expert on Brazilian labor and social issues and is the author of a thorough comparative analysis of the Brazilian and U.S. labor law systems, Sistemas de Relacoes do Trabalho: Exame dos Modelos Brasil-Estados Unidos. Gacek is currently serving as international relations officer in the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of International Affairs and is responsible for policy and comparative labor law analysis and for representing the U.S. government in its bilateral discussions with counterpart labor ministries throughout the world. Prior to his current job with the Labor Department, Gacek served as special counsel for international labor law at the Solidarity Center/AFL-CIO and associate director of the AFL-CIO’s international department. He was the AFL-CIO’s international affairs assistant director (Americas Region) from 1997 to 2005. He served as the assistant director for international affairs at the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW) from 1984 to 1997 and was the UFCW’s assistant general counsel from 1979 to 1984. Gacek received his BA in social studies from Harvard University and his JD from Harvard Law School. He was an adjunct professor at Harvard University in 2008 and has been an active member of the District of Columbia Bar Association.

Sergio J. Galvis is a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell LLP and heads the firm’s practice in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America. For more than twenty-five years, Galvis has worked on hundreds of matters involving parties from more than twenty-five countries in Asia, Europe, and Latin America. His recent experience in Brazil includes the proposed combination of LAN Airlines and TAM S.A. In 2010, he received the Distinguished Global Citizen Award at the Global Kids annual benefit. He was named by the National Law Journal as one of the 50 Most Influential Minority Lawyers in America and by Hispanic Business magazine as one of the 100 Most Influential U.S. Hispanics in 2008. He is a three-time recipient of the Burton Award for Legal Achievement, most recently in 2011 for his article “Introducing Dodd-Frank,” published in Latin Lawyer. In 2002, Galvis was part of a group of eminent practitioners convened by a G10 working group to help develop collective action clauses for sovereign debt financings.

Kevin P. Green joined IBM in November 2004 and leads IBM’s Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community business, which includes the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, the U.S. Army, the U.S. Air Force, Joint Commands and DoD agencies, and National Security Intelligence agencies. Prior to joining IBM, Admiral Green spent thirty-three years as a naval officer, completing his navy career as deputy chief of naval operations (DCNO) for operations, plans, and policy. As DCNO, he coordinated global naval operations, strategic planning, information operations, and naval policy development and managed service relationships with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the National Security Council staff, the U.S. military services, other federal agencies, and allied navies. As a flag officer, he commanded Naval Forces U.S. Southern Command, the Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group, and the Naval Training Center, Great Lakes, Illinois. He served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Atlantic Fleet headquarters, and the Bureau of Naval Personnel and commanded a destroyer squadron and a guided missile frigate. He graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy and the National War College and received an MS from the Naval Postgraduate School.

Donna J. Hrinak is vice president for global public policy at PepsiCo, Inc. She has served as U.S. ambassador to four countries—Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, and the Dominican Republic—and as deputy assistant secretary of state for Mexico and the Caribbean. She also had assignments in Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Poland. Ambassador Hrinak’s honors include the U.S. government’s Distinguished Public Service Award and the State Department’s Career Achievement Award. In 2005, she was named international businesswoman of the year by the Miami chapter of the Organization of Women in International Trade. She serves on the board of directors of the Inter-American Dialogue and on the board of counselors of McLarty Associates. She is based in Purchase, NY.

Robert L. Hutchings is dean of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. Prior to this, Hutchings was diplomat in residence at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He was also faculty chair of the master in public policy program and served for five years as assistant dean. From 2003 to 2005, on public service leave from Princeton, he was chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council. He has also served as a fellow and director of international studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, as the National Security Council’s director for European affairs, and as special adviser to the secretary of state, with the rank of ambassador. Ambassador Hutchings was deputy director of Radio Free Europe and on the faculty of the University of Virginia, and he has held adjunct appointments at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He is a director of the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Foundation for a Civil Society and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the British-North American Committee, and the executive committee of the Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs.

G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University in the Woodrow Wilson School. He has also taught previously at Georgetown University and the University of Pennsylvania. He has held posts at the State Department, on the policy planning staff, and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as a senior associate. Ikenberry has also been a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. During 2002–2004, he was a transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund. In 1998–99, Ikenberry was a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. In 1997–98, he was a CFR international affairs fellow in Japan, sponsored by Hitachi Ltd., and spent a year affiliated with the Institute for International Policy Studies in Tokyo. He has published in all the major academic journals of international relations and written widely in policy journals in addition to authoring several books. He is also the reviewer of books on political and legal affairs for Foreign Affairs. Ikenberry has just published a new book, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order. He received his PhD from the University of Chicago.

Timothy M. Kingston is a partner and managing director at Goldman, Sachs & Co., and coheads the global power effort within the investment banking division. He joined Goldman Sachs in May 1988, and his career has spanned various geographies and functional areas, including ten years in the Latin American group, where he served ultimately as chief operating officer and concentrated on Brazil. Kingston serves on the advisory boards of the Latin American studies program at Princeton University and the North American board of INSEAD and is a director of the North American Chilean Chamber of Commerce. He was previously a director of Mercado Libre. Kingston is a graduate of Princeton University and holds an MBA from INSEAD.

Thomas E. Lovejoy was elected university professor at George Mason University in March 2010. He also holds the biodiversity chair at the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment and was president from 2002 to 2008. Starting in the 1970s, he helped bring attention to the issue of tropical deforestation, and in 1980, he published the first estimate of global extinction rates. Lovejoy has worked on the interaction between climate change and biodiversity for more than twenty years, coining the term biological diversity and originating the concept of debt-for-nature swaps. He is the founder of the public television series Nature and has served as the senior adviser to the president of the United Nations Foundation, the World Bank’s chief biodiversity adviser and lead specialist for the environment for the Latin American region, the Smithsonian Institution’s assistant secretary for environmental and external affairs, and executive vice president of World Wildlife Fund-U.S. He has served on advisory councils in the Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Clinton administrations. In 2009 he was appointed conservation fellow by the National Geographic Society. He chairs the scientific and technical panel for the Global Environment Facility. He received his BS and PhD from Yale University.

Jennifer L. McCoy is director of the Carter Center’s Americas program and has been professor of political science at Georgia State University since 1984. As part of her responsibilities overseeing the Americas program, she directs the Carter Center’s Friends of the Inter-American Democratic Charter group, and she previously managed the Carter Center’s project on mediation and monitoring in Venezuela from 2002 to 2004. She has directed election-monitoring missions for the Carter Center in Bolivia, Nicaragua, Panama, Mexico, Venezuela, Jamaica, and Peru and has participated in election delegations to Indonesia, Haiti, Suriname, and Guyana. McCoy’s academic career has included extensive fieldwork in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Uruguay, where she conducted research as a Fulbright fellow in 1991 and 1992. A specialist on democratization, international collective protection and promotion of democracy, and Latin American politics, McCoy’s most recent book is International Mediation in Venezuela (with Francisco Diez). She is also editor and contributor to The Unraveling of Representative Democracy in Venezuela (with David Myers), Do Politicians Learn from Political Crises? and Venezuelan Democracy Under Stress.

Joy Olson is executive director of the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) and is a leading expert on human rights and U.S. policy toward Latin America. Under Olson’s direction, WOLA is pioneering new approaches to human rights advocacy, focusing on the underlying causes of injustice, inequality, and violence. The Washington Post has recognized WOLA as one of the best-managed nonprofits in the Washington area. Olson specializes in military and security policy, and she has been a longtime advocate for greater transparency of military programs in Latin America. She cofounded the Just the Facts project, which makes information about U.S. military policy in Latin America publicly accessible. For more than a decade, she has coauthored an annual study on trends in U.S. security assistance, including the recent report Waiting for Change. Prior to joining WOLA, Olson directed the Latin America Working Group, a coalition of sixty nongovernmental organizations working to promote peaceful and just U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America. Olson has testified before Congress on Latin America policy issues ranging from human rights in Mexico to drug policy to the problems of poverty and inequality in the region. She is a frequent commentator in the media, including on CNN, CNN Español, the BBC, PBS NewsHour, National Public Radio, and an array of national and international news outlets. Olson earned an MA from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, following two years’ work in community development in Honduras.

Brian D. O’Neill is vice chairman of Lazard International. His responsibilities include Latin America and Canada. O’Neill has extensive experience working with governments, local and multinational corporations, and financial institutions. He is a director of Signatura Lazard in Brazil and MBA Lazard in Central and South America and partner assigned to the firm’s strategic alliance Alfaro, Davila y Rios S.C. in Mexico. O’Neill served as deputy assistant secretary in the U.S. Treasury from 2007 to 2009. For a five-month period in 2008, he was acting U.S. director of the Inter-American Development Bank. Prior to that, he worked for JPMorgan Chase for over thirty years, where he held multiple leadership roles, including chairmcan of investment banking for Latin America and Canada from 2001 to 2006. He lived and worked in South America for twelve years in Santiago, Chile; Buenos Aires, Argentina; and São Paulo, Brazil. O’Neill is a director of the Council of the Americas, the Americas Society, and the Inter-American Dialogue. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the advisory committee for the David Rockefeller Center for Latin America Studies at Harvard University.

Michelle Billig Patron is senior director of PIRA Energy Group. Prior to joining PIRA, Patron was an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and conducted energy research at Deutsche Bank. Earlier in her career, she served as an international policy adviser at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations. During that time, she advised the U.S. energy secretary and other senior U.S. officials on relations with major energy-producing and -consuming countries, including Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, China, Nigeria, and the European Union. In 2001, Patron served as energy attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Prior to the DOE, she worked at the International Energy Agency, the White House, UNICEF, and the Center for International Environmental Law. Patron holds a BA from Columbia University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. She has served as a commentator to CNBC, BBC, NPR, the New York Times, and the Economist and has written for Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, and the Los Angeles Times.

David Perez has served as a managing director with Palladium Equity Partners since 2003. Previously, he held senior private equity positions at General Atlantic Partners and Atlas Venture and also held positions at Chase Capital Partners and James D. Wolfensohn, Inc. Perez serves on the board of directors of Palladium’s privately held portfolio companies Aconcagua Holdings, Inc.; American Gilsonite Company; Capital Contractors, Inc.; DolEx Dollar Express, Inc.; Jordan Healthcare Holdings, Inc.; and Prince Minerals, Inc. Perez serves as the chair of the board of directors of the National Association of Investment Companies, is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and is the president of the board of directors of Ballet Hispánico. Perez earned a BS/MS degree from the Dresden University of Technology, an MEng degree in engineering management from Cornell University, and an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Riordan Roett is the Sarita and Don Johnston professor of political science and director of Western Hemisphere studies at the Johns Hopkins Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). In 2004, SAIS announced the establishment of the Riordan Roett chair in Latin American studies. From 1983 to 1995, Roett served as a consultant to the Chase Manhattan Bank in various capacities; in 1994–95 he was the senior political analyst in the emerging markets division of the bank’s international capital markets group. Roett is a member of the board of directors of several mutual funds at Legg Mason, Inc. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Bretton Woods Committee and is a former national president of the Latin American Studies Association. He is author and editor of several books, including, most recently, The New Brazil. Roett received his BA, MA, and PhD from Columbia University.

David J. Rothkopf serves as president and chief executive of Garten Rothkopf. He is also a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and chairs the Carnegie Economic Strategy Roundtable and the National Strategic Investment Dialogue. He is also the author of Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council and Superclass: The Global Power Elite and the World They Are Making. His next book, Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government—and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead will be published in 2012. He also writes a daily blog for ForeignPolicy.com. Prior to the establishment of Garten Rothkopf, he was chairman, CEO, and cofounder of Intellibridge Corporation, a leading provider of international analysis and open-source intelligence. Prior to that, he was managing director of Kissinger Associates, the international advisory firm founded and chaired by former U.S. secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger. Rothkopf served as acting U.S. undersecretary of commerce for international trade, directing the 2,400 employees of the International Trade Administration. He joined the Clinton administration in 1993 as deputy undersecretary of commerce for international trade policy development. Rothkopf was cofounder, chairman, and CEO of International Media Partners, Inc., publisher of CEO magazine and Emerging Markets and organizer of the CEO Institutes.

Andrew Small currently serves as the director of the committee that oversees relations between U.S. bishops and the Catholic Church in Latin America and the Caribbean. Father Small was the foreign policy adviser for the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops from 2004 to 2009. He has written extensively on the church’s role in the public square and has delivered testimony before the U.S. Congress on the impact of U.S. trade policy on developing countries.
Julia E. Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America studies, director for Latin America studies, and director of the Global Brazil initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She is the author of Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know and Friendly Fire: Losing Friends and Making Enemies in the Anti-American Century, as well as of numerous publications on Latin America and American foreign policy. She has directed several CFR reports on Latin America. Sweig’s Inside the Cuban Revolution: Fidel Castro and the Urban Underground received the American Historical Association’s Herbert Feis Award for best book of the year by an independent scholar.

Tanisha N. Tingle-Smith is the principal and founder of Verdade Consulting, a boutique Brazil-focused risk advisory and research consultancy. Her research specializes in Brazilian international relations, with particular focus on the geoeconomics of Brazil’s relations with the Global South. She has presented at and contributed to articles and book chapters for U.S. and international universities. In 2008–2009, she was a consultant at the United Nations Development Program on Brazil-Africa South-South development exchange. Earlier, she served as foreign policy analyst and adviser with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the departments of State and Treasury. She received department recognition and awards for her analytic work. From 1995 to 2001, she was an analyst and assistant vice president for Latin America economic research with Salomon Smith Barney and Merrill Lynch. She is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She holds an MIA from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.

James D. Wolfensohn is chairman of Wolfensohn & Company, LLC, chairman of Citigroup’s international advisory board, and adviser to Citigroup’s senior management on global strategy and on international matters. In 2006, he established the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution. Wolfensohn was president of the World Bank Group from 1995 to 2005. He was special envoy for Gaza disengagement for the quartet of the Middle East; president and CEO of James D. Wolfensohn, Inc.; executive partner of Salomon Brothers, New York; executive deputy chairman and managing director of Schroders, London; president of J. Henry Schroders Banking Corporation, New York; and managing director of Darling & Co., Australia. He is chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for Performing Arts and of Carnegie Hall. In addition, he has been president of the International Federation of Multiple Sclerosis Societies, chairman of the board of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton University, director of the Business Council for Sustainable Development, chairman of the finance committee and a director of the Rockefeller Foundation and the Population Council, and a member of the board of Rockefeller University. He is an honorary trustee of the Brookings Institution, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Century Association.

*Gacek participated in the Task Force under his previous affiliation with the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations. As a current administration official, he has not been asked to join the Task Force consensus.

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Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations: CFR Report 2011

Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations
http://www.cfr.org/brazil/global-brazil-us-brazil-relations/p25407

Relatório final do Task Force do CFR. Uma radiografia da inserção internacional do Brasil nos anos Lula/Dilma.

Overview

July 12, 2011—Over the course of a generation, Brazil has emerged as both a driver of growth in South America and as an active force in world politics. A new Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)-sponsored Independent Task Force report asserts “that it is in the interest of the United States to understand Brazil as a complex international actor whose influence on the defining global issues of the day is only likely to increase.”
Brazil currently ranks as the world’s fifth-largest landmass, fifth-largest population, and expects to soon be ranked the fifth largest economy. The report, Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, recommends that “U.S. policymakers recognize Brazil’s standing as a global actor, treat its emergence as an opportunity for the United States, and work with Brazil to develop complementary policies.”
The Task Force is chaired by former secretary of energy Samuel W. Bodman and former president of the World Bank James D. Wolfensohn, and directed by CFR Senior Fellow and Director for Latin America Studies, and Director of the Global Brazil Initiative Julia E. Sweig.
Recognizing Brazil’s global role, the report recommends that the Obama administration now fully endorse the country’s bid for a seat as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). It argues that “a formal endorsement from the United States for Brazil would go far to overcome lingering suspicion within the Brazilian government that the U.S. commitment to a mature relationship between equals is largely rhetorical.”
Domestically, Brazil’s “inclusive growth has translated into a significant reduction of inequality, an expansion of the middle class, and a vibrant economy, all framed within a democratic context.” Consequently, Brazil has been able to use its economic bona fides to leverage a stronger position in the international, commercial, and diplomatic arena.
The report stresses the importance of regular communication between the presidents of both countries. “Cooperation between the United States and Brazil holds too much promise for miscommunication or inevitable disagreements to stand in the way of potential gains.” A mature, working relationship means that “the United States and Brazil can help each other advance mutual interests even without wholesale policy agreements between the two,” notes the report.
The Task Force further recommends that
- the U.S. Congress “include an elimination of the ethanol tariff in any bill regarding reform to the ethanol and biofuel tax credit regime.”
- the United States “take the first step to waive visa requirements for Brazilians by immediately reviewing Brazil’s criteria for participation in the Visa Waiver Program.”
- the U.S. State Department create an Office for Brazilian Affairs and the National Security Council (NSC) centralize its efforts under a NSC director for Brazil in order to better coordinate the current decentralized U.S. policy.
The bipartisan Task Force includes thirty distinguished experts on Brazil who represent a range of perspectives and backgrounds. The report includes a number of additional views by Task Force members, including one that notes, “We believe that a more gradual approach [regarding Brazil’s inclusion as a full UNSC member] would likely have more success in navigating the diplomatic complexities presented by U.S. support for Brazil.” Another view asserts, “If the United States supports, as the Obama administration has said it does, leadership structures in international institutions that are more reflective of international realities, it must support without qualifications Brazil’s candidacy [for the UNSC].”


Task Force Members
Jed N. Bailey is an expert in energy markets in developing countries and the founder of the Popo Agie Group, an incubator focused on products and services that promote learning at all ages. He was previously vice president for applied research consulting at IHS CERA, where he was responsible for IHS CERA’s global bespoke research and consulting practice. Bailey is the author of over seventy IHS CERA reports and directed IHS CERA multiclient studies that examined the energy futures of Brazil, China, Mexico, South America, and Southeast Asia. He has been widely quoted in publications ranging from the Economist and the Financial Times to the Iran Daily and has appeared on Bloomberg Television and CNN International. His current projects at the Popo Agie Group include developing Kaleidoshapes, a large-scale construction and dramatic play toy for young children; experimenting with the graphical presentation of complex data; and exploring the use of narrative in corporate strategy and communications. Bailey holds a BS from the University of Wyoming and an MS from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Samuel W. Bodman served as U.S. secretary of energy from 2005 to 2009 and previously served as deputy secretary of the treasury and as deputy secretary of commerce. Bodman currently serves on the board of directors of the Hess Corporation, the AES Corporation, and Weatherford International. He is a trustee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cornell University, and the Carnegie Institution, as well as a lifetime trustee of the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He is also a chairman of the advisory board of the University of Texas Energy Institute and a member of the energy task force of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He serves on the international advisory council of the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. Bodman earned a BS from Cornell University and a PhD from MIT, where he was also associate professor of chemical engineering. He began his work in the financial sector as technical director of the American Research and Development Corporation. In 1983 he became president and CEO of Fidelity Investments and a director of the Fidelity Group of Mutual Funds. In 1987, he joined Cabot Corporation, where he served as chairman, CEO, and director.
R. Nicholas Burns is professor of the practice of diplomacy and international politics at the Harvard Kennedy School and director of the future of diplomacy project and faculty chair for the programs on the Middle East and on India and South Asia. He serves on the board of directors of the school’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and on the boards of several nonprofit organizations. Ambassador Burns served in the U.S. Foreign Service for twenty-seven years until his retirement in April 2008, serving variously as undersecretary of state for political affairs, U.S. ambassador to NATO and Greece, and State Department spokesman. He was senior director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia affairs on the National Security Council and special assistant to President William J. Clinton and, before that, director for Soviet affairs in the George H.W. Bush administation. He also served at the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem and the U.S. embassies in Egypt and Mauritania. He has received the Secretary of State’s Distinguished Service Award, Johns Hopkins University’s Woodrow Wilson Award for Public Service, and Boston College’s Alumni Achievement Award. He has a BA from Boston College and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Louis E. Caldera is the vice president of programs with the Jack Kent Cooke Foundation, where he leads the foundation’s scholarship and grant programs and is responsible for the foundation’s communications, information systems, program development, and evaluation functions. Caldera has a distinguished public service career that includes service as an officer in the U.S. Army, as a California legislator, as secretary of the army in the Clinton administration, and as president of the University of New Mexico. He also served in the Clinton administration as managing director and chief operating officer of the Corporation for National and Community Service. Prior to joining the Jack Kent Cooke Foundation, Caldera was a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, where he focused on higher education, immigration, and other public policy matters affecting poor and ethnically and racially diverse communities in the United States. He served on President Barack Obama’s Department of Defense transition team and was an assistant to the president and director of the White House Military Office in the early months of the Obama administration. Caldera is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and holds law and business degrees from Harvard University.
Eileen B. Claussen is the president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and Strategies for the Global Environment. Claussen is the former assistant secretary of state for oceans and international environmental and scientific affairs. Prior to joining the Department of State, Claussen served for three years as a special assistant to the president and senior director for global environmental affairs on the National Security Council. She has also served as chairman of the United Nations Multilateral Montreal Protocol Fund. Claussen was director of atmospheric programs at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), where she was responsible for activities related to the depletion of the ozone layer, Title IV of the Clean Air Act, and the EPA’s energy efficiency programs. Claussen is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Ecomagination advisory board, the Harvard environmental economics program advisory panel, and the U.S. Commodity Future Trading Commission’s advisory committee. She is the recipient of the Department of State’s Career Achievement Award and the Distinguished Executive Award for Sustained Extraordinary Accomplishment. She also served as the Timothy Atkeson scholar in residence at Yale University.
Nelson W. Cunningham is managing partner and a cofounder of McLarty Associates. Under his leadership, McLarty Associates has developed into a firm with global reach and over four dozen employees and advisers stationed in Washington and around the world. Cunningham served as special adviser to President Clinton on Western Hemisphere affairs and as general counsel at the White House Office of Administration. He previously served as general counsel to Chairman Joseph R. Biden of the Senate Judiciary Committee, focusing on constitutional, judicial, and criminal justice matters. He also served as an assistant U.S. attorney in the southern district of New York from 1988 to 1994. Cunningham was a campaign adviser and member of the Obama-Biden transition team and was a foreign policy and trade adviser to John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign as well as to those of other Democratic candidates. He is an active member of the boards of the Institute of the Americas, the Business Council for International Understanding, the American Security Project, and the U.S.-India Business Council and is a member of the Yale president’s council on international activities, the Department of State’s advisory committee on international economic policy, the Export-Import Bank advisory committee, the Council of the Americas, and the Council on Foreign Relations. Cunningham is a graduate of Yale College and Stanford Law School.
Eli Whitney Debevoise II is a senior partner in the law firm of Arnold & Porter LLP, with particular involvement in international financial transactions, public policy, international arbitration, multijurisdictional litigation, banking, and international trade. The firm acts as legal counsel to Brazil on certain transactional and litigation matters. He rejoined Arnold & Porter LLP in 2010 after serving as U.S. executive director of the World Bank beginning in 2007. During his tenure at the bank, he had a leading role in capital increase and share realignment negotiations and participated in preparations for G8 and G20 summits. Debevoise has lectured at Harvard Law School, Yale Law School, the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, and the Hungarian Institute for the Training of Bankers. In 2010, he gave the Lauder leadership lecture at the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written articles on sovereign finance, international banking, international arbitration, securities regulation, World Trade Organization dispute resolution, U.S. export controls, and sovereign immunity. Debevoise graduated from Yale University and Harvard Law School. He holds an honorary doctorate in law from the Vermont Law School and is a recipient of the Order of Rio Branco.
Paula J. Dobriansky is the senior vice president and global head of government and regulatory affairs at Thomson Reuters. She is an adjunct senior fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and holds the distinguished national security chair at the U.S. Naval Academy. From May 2001 to January 2009, Ambassador Dobriansky served as undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs; in February 2007, she was appointed the president’s special envoy on Northern Ireland. She served as senior vice president and director of the Washington office of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and as CFR’s first George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies. Her other government appointments include associate director for policy and programs at the United States Information Agency, deputy assistant secretary of state for human rights and humanitarian affairs, and director of European and Soviet affairs on the National Security Council. From 1997 to 2001, she served on the U.S. Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy. Ambassador Dobriansky received a BSFS from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and an MA and PhD from Harvard University. She is a recipient of various honors, including the secretary of state’s highest honor, the Distinguished Service Medal.
Shepard L. Forman is director emeritus and senior fellow of the Center on International Cooperation at New York University. Prior to founding the center, he directed the human rights and governance and international affairs programs at the Ford Foundation. He serves on the boards of the International Peace Institute, the Global Fairness Initiative, Peace Dividend Trust, and Scholars at Risk, among others. Forman received his PhD in anthropology from Columbia University and did postdoctoral studies in economic development at the Institute of Development Studies in Sussex, England. He served on the faculty at Indiana University, the University of Chicago, and the University of Michigan and conducted field research in Brazil and East Timor. He has authored two books on Brazil and numerous articles and policy papers on humanitarian assistance and postconflict reconstruction assistance and statebuilding. He is coeditor, with Stewart Patrick, of Good Intentions: Pledges of Aid to Countries Emerging from Conflict and Multilateralism and U.S. Foreign Policy: Ambivalent Engagement; with Romita Ghosh of Promoting Reproductive Health: Investing in Health for Development; and, with Bruce Jones and Richard Gowen, of Cooperating for Peace and Security. He also edited Diagnosing America: Anthropology and Public Policy, which examines the application of anthropological studies to social problems in the United States.
José A. Fourquet serves as a managing director of the DBS Financial Group, one of the largest financial advisory firms in the state of Florida. Prior to that, Fourquet worked for four years as a managing director and head of the Miami private investment management branch of Lehman Brothers, Inc. Before joining Lehman, President George W. Bush nominated Fourquet and the U.S. Senate unanimously confirmed him to serve as U.S. executive director of the Inter-American Development Bank from 2001 to 2004. Prior, Fourquet worked for five years as a vice president in the fixed income, currency, and commodities division of Goldman, Sachs & Co., in New York. Fourquet began his career as an operations officer in the Central Intelligence Agency and spent over six years posted abroad in Latin America and the Caribbean, where he collected, evaluated, and reported high-priority intelligence of interest to U.S. policymakers. Fourquet graduated from Georgetown University with a BA in government and a School of Foreign Service special certificate in Latin American studies. He also obtained an MBA in finance from Columbia Business School, where he was inducted into the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.
Maria C. Freire is president of the Albert and Mary Lasker Foundation. Prior to this, she led the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development, transforming the organization into a world leader in tuberculosis drug development. An internationally recognized expert in technology commercialization, Freire directed the Office of Technology Transfer at the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) and established the Office of Technology Development at the University of Maryland at Baltimore and in Baltimore County. Freire obtained her BS at Universidad Peruano Cayetano Heredia (Lima, Peru) and her PhD in biophysics from the University of Virginia. Active on the NIH advisory committee to the director, the international advisory steering committee of the Instituto Carlos Slim de la Salud (Mexico), the Association of American Medical Colleges advisory panel on research, and the international advisory panel to the Ministerial Working Group on Scaling up of Primary Health Systems, Freire was one of ten commissioners selected for the World Health Organization’s Commission on Intellectual Property Rights, Innovation and Public Health (CIPIH). A member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies of Science, she has received the Department of Health and Human Services Secretary’s Award for Distinguished Service, the Arthur S. Flemming Award, and the Bayh-Dole Award.
Stanley A. Gacek* is a labor lawyer with both U.S. and international experience. He is a recognized expert on Brazilian labor and social issues and is the author of a thorough comparative analysis of the Brazilian and U.S. labor law systems, Sistemas de Relacoes do Trabalho: Exame dos Modelos Brasil-Estados Unidos. Gacek is currently serving as international relations officer in the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of International Affairs and is responsible for policy and comparative labor law analysis and for representing the U.S. government in its bilateral discussions with counterpart labor ministries throughout the world. Prior to his current job with the Labor Department, Gacek served as special counsel for international labor law at the Solidarity Center/AFL-CIO and associate director of the AFL-CIO’s international department. He was the AFL-CIO’s international affairs assistant director (Americas Region) from 1997 to 2005. He served as the assistant director for international affairs at the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW) from 1984 to 1997 and was the UFCW’s assistant general counsel from 1979 to 1984. Gacek received his BA in social studies from Harvard University and his JD from Harvard Law School. He was an adjunct professor at Harvard University in 2008 and has been an active member of the District of Columbia Bar Association.
Sergio J. Galvis is a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell LLP and heads the firm’s practice in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America. For more than twenty-five years, Galvis has worked on hundreds of matters involving parties from more than twenty-five countries in Asia, Europe, and Latin America. His recent experience in Brazil includes the proposed combination of LAN Airlines and TAM S.A. In 2010, he received the Distinguished Global Citizen Award at the Global Kids annual benefit. He was named by the National Law Journal as one of the 50 Most Influential Minority Lawyers in America and by Hispanic Business magazine as one of the 100 Most Influential U.S. Hispanics in 2008. He is a three-time recipient of the Burton Award for Legal Achievement, most recently in 2011 for his article “Introducing Dodd-Frank,” published in Latin Lawyer. In 2002, Galvis was part of a group of eminent practitioners convened by a G10 working group to help develop collective action clauses for sovereign debt financings.
Kevin P. Green joined IBM in November 2004 and leads IBM’s Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community business, which includes the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, the U.S. Army, the U.S. Air Force, Joint Commands and DoD agencies, and National Security Intelligence agencies. Prior to joining IBM, Admiral Green spent thirty-three years as a naval officer, completing his navy career as deputy chief of naval operations (DCNO) for operations, plans, and policy. As DCNO, he coordinated global naval operations, strategic planning, information operations, and naval policy development and managed service relationships with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the National Security Council staff, the U.S. military services, other federal agencies, and allied navies. As a flag officer, he commanded Naval Forces U.S. Southern Command, the Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group, and the Naval Training Center, Great Lakes, Illinois. He served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Atlantic Fleet headquarters, and the Bureau of Naval Personnel and commanded a destroyer squadron and a guided missile frigate. He graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy and the National War College and received an MS from the Naval Postgraduate School.
Donna J. Hrinak is vice president for global public policy at PepsiCo, Inc. She has served as U.S. ambassador to four countries—Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, and the Dominican Republic—and as deputy assistant secretary of state for Mexico and the Caribbean. She also had assignments in Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Poland. Ambassador Hrinak’s honors include the U.S. government’s Distinguished Public Service Award and the State Department’s Career Achievement Award. In 2005, she was named international businesswoman of the year by the Miami chapter of the Organization of Women in International Trade. She serves on the board of directors of the Inter-American Dialogue and on the board of counselors of McLarty Associates. She is based in Purchase, NY.
Robert L. Hutchings is dean of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. Prior to this, Hutchings was diplomat in residence at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He was also faculty chair of the master in public policy program and served for five years as assistant dean. From 2003 to 2005, on public service leave from Princeton, he was chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council. He has also served as a fellow and director of international studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, as the National Security Council’s director for European affairs, and as special adviser to the secretary of state, with the rank of ambassador. Ambassador Hutchings was deputy director of Radio Free Europe and on the faculty of the University of Virginia, and he has held adjunct appointments at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He is a director of the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Foundation for a Civil Society and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the British-North American Committee, and the executive committee of the Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs.
G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University in the Woodrow Wilson School. He has also taught previously at Georgetown University and the University of Pennsylvania. He has held posts at the State Department, on the policy planning staff, and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as a senior associate. Ikenberry has also been a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. During 2002–2004, he was a transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund. In 1998–99, Ikenberry was a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. In 1997–98, he was a CFR international affairs fellow in Japan, sponsored by Hitachi Ltd., and spent a year affiliated with the Institute for International Policy Studies in Tokyo. He has published in all the major academic journals of international relations and written widely in policy journals in addition to authoring several books. He is also the reviewer of books on political and legal affairs for Foreign Affairs. Ikenberry has just published a new book, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order. He received his PhD from the University of Chicago.
Timothy M. Kingston is a partner and managing director at Goldman, Sachs & Co., and coheads the global power effort within the investment banking division. He joined Goldman Sachs in May 1988, and his career has spanned various geographies and functional areas, including ten years in the Latin American group, where he served ultimately as chief operating officer and concentrated on Brazil. Kingston serves on the advisory boards of the Latin American studies program at Princeton University and the North American board of INSEAD and is a director of the North American Chilean Chamber of Commerce. He was previously a director of Mercado Libre. Kingston is a graduate of Princeton University and holds an MBA from INSEAD.
Thomas E. Lovejoy was elected university professor at George Mason University in March 2010. He also holds the biodiversity chair at the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment and was president from 2002 to 2008. Starting in the 1970s, he helped bring attention to the issue of tropical deforestation, and in 1980, he published the first estimate of global extinction rates. Lovejoy has worked on the interaction between climate change and biodiversity for more than twenty years, coining the term biological diversity and originating the concept of debt-for-nature swaps. He is the founder of the public television series Nature and has served as the senior adviser to the president of the United Nations Foundation, the World Bank’s chief biodiversity adviser and lead specialist for the environment for the Latin American region, the Smithsonian Institution’s assistant secretary for environmental and external affairs, and executive vice president of World Wildlife Fund-U.S. He has served on advisory councils in the Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Clinton administrations. In 2009 he was appointed conservation fellow by the National Geographic Society. He chairs the scientific and technical panel for the Global Environment Facility. He received his BS and PhD from Yale University.
Jennifer L. McCoy is director of the Carter Center’s Americas program and has been professor of political science at Georgia State University since 1984. As part of her responsibilities overseeing the Americas program, she directs the Carter Center’s Friends of the Inter-American Democratic Charter group, and she previously managed the Carter Center’s project on mediation and monitoring in Venezuela from 2002 to 2004. She has directed election-monitoring missions for the Carter Center in Bolivia, Nicaragua, Panama, Mexico, Venezuela, Jamaica, and Peru and has participated in election delegations to Indonesia, Haiti, Suriname, and Guyana. McCoy’s academic career has included extensive fieldwork in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Uruguay, where she conducted research as a Fulbright fellow in 1991 and 1992. A specialist on democratization, international collective protection and promotion of democracy, and Latin American politics, McCoy’s most recent book is International Mediation in Venezuela (with Francisco Diez). She is also editor and contributor to The Unraveling of Representative Democracy in Venezuela (with David Myers), Do Politicians Learn from Political Crises? and Venezuelan Democracy Under Stress.
Joy Olson is executive director of the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) and is a leading expert on human rights and U.S. policy toward Latin America. Under Olson’s direction, WOLA is pioneering new approaches to human rights advocacy, focusing on the underlying causes of injustice, inequality, and violence. The Washington Post has recognized WOLA as one of the best-managed nonprofits in the Washington area. Olson specializes in military and security policy, and she has been a longtime advocate for greater transparency of military programs in Latin America. She cofounded the Just the Facts project, which makes information about U.S. military policy in Latin America publicly accessible. For more than a decade, she has coauthored an annual study on trends in U.S. security assistance, including the recent report Waiting for Change. Prior to joining WOLA, Olson directed the Latin America Working Group, a coalition of sixty nongovernmental organizations working to promote peaceful and just U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America. Olson has testified before Congress on Latin America policy issues ranging from human rights in Mexico to drug policy to the problems of poverty and inequality in the region. She is a frequent commentator in the media, including on CNN, CNN Español, the BBC, PBS NewsHour, National Public Radio, and an array of national and international news outlets. Olson earned an MA from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, following two years’ work in community development in Honduras.
Brian D. O’Neill is vice chairman of Lazard International. His responsibilities include Latin America and Canada. O’Neill has extensive experience working with governments, local and multinational corporations, and financial institutions. He is a director of Signatura Lazard in Brazil and MBA Lazard in Central and South America and partner assigned to the firm’s strategic alliance Alfaro, Davila y Rios S.C. in Mexico. O’Neill served as deputy assistant secretary in the U.S. Treasury from 2007 to 2009. For a five-month period in 2008, he was acting U.S. director of the Inter-American Development Bank. Prior to that, he worked for JPMorgan Chase for over thirty years, where he held multiple leadership roles, including chairmcan of investment banking for Latin America and Canada from 2001 to 2006. He lived and worked in South America for twelve years in Santiago, Chile; Buenos Aires, Argentina; and São Paulo, Brazil. O’Neill is a director of the Council of the Americas, the Americas Society, and the Inter-American Dialogue. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the advisory committee for the David Rockefeller Center for Latin America Studies at Harvard University.
Michelle Billig Patron is senior director of PIRA Energy Group. Prior to joining PIRA, Patron was an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and conducted energy research at Deutsche Bank. Earlier in her career, she served as an international policy adviser at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations. During that time, she advised the U.S. energy secretary and other senior U.S. officials on relations with major energy-producing and -consuming countries, including Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, China, Nigeria, and the European Union. In 2001, Patron served as energy attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Prior to the DOE, she worked at the International Energy Agency, the White House, UNICEF, and the Center for International Environmental Law. Patron holds a BA from Columbia University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. She has served as a commentator to CNBC, BBC, NPR, the New York Times, and the Economist and has written for Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, and the Los Angeles Times.
David Perez has served as a managing director with Palladium Equity Partners since 2003. Previously, he held senior private equity positions at General Atlantic Partners and Atlas Venture and also held positions at Chase Capital Partners and James D. Wolfensohn, Inc. Perez serves on the board of directors of Palladium’s privately held portfolio companies Aconcagua Holdings, Inc.; American Gilsonite Company; Capital Contractors, Inc.; DolEx Dollar Express, Inc.; Jordan Healthcare Holdings, Inc.; and Prince Minerals, Inc. Perez serves as the chair of the board of directors of the National Association of Investment Companies, is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and is the president of the board of directors of Ballet Hispánico. Perez earned a BS/MS degree from the Dresden University of Technology, an MEng degree in engineering management from Cornell University, and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Riordan Roett is the Sarita and Don Johnston professor of political science and director of Western Hemisphere studies at the Johns Hopkins Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). In 2004, SAIS announced the establishment of the Riordan Roett chair in Latin American studies. From 1983 to 1995, Roett served as a consultant to the Chase Manhattan Bank in various capacities; in 1994–95 he was the senior political analyst in the emerging markets division of the bank’s international capital markets group. Roett is a member of the board of directors of several mutual funds at Legg Mason, Inc. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Bretton Woods Committee and is a former national president of the Latin American Studies Association. He is author and editor of several books, including, most recently, The New Brazil. Roett received his BA, MA, and PhD from Columbia University.
David J. Rothkopf serves as president and chief executive of Garten Rothkopf. He is also a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and chairs the Carnegie Economic Strategy Roundtable and the National Strategic Investment Dialogue. He is also the author of Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council and Superclass: The Global Power Elite and the World They Are Making. His next book, Power, Inc.: The Epic Rivalry Between Big Business and Government—and the Reckoning that Lies Ahead will be published in 2012. He also writes a daily blog for ForeignPolicy.com. Prior to the establishment of Garten Rothkopf, he was chairman, CEO, and cofounder of Intellibridge Corporation, a leading provider of international analysis and open-source intelligence. Prior to that, he was managing director of Kissinger Associates, the international advisory firm founded and chaired by former U.S. secretary of state Henry A. Kissinger. Rothkopf served as acting U.S. undersecretary of commerce for international trade, directing the 2,400 employees of the International Trade Administration. He joined the Clinton administration in 1993 as deputy undersecretary of commerce for international trade policy development. Rothkopf was cofounder, chairman, and CEO of International Media Partners, Inc., publisher of CEO magazine and Emerging Markets and organizer of the CEO Institutes.
Andrew Small currently serves as the director of the committee that oversees relations between U.S. bishops and the Catholic Church in Latin America and the Caribbean. Father Small was the foreign policy adviser for the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops from 2004 to 2009. He has written extensively on the church’s role in the public square and has delivered testimony before the U.S. Congress on the impact of U.S. trade policy on developing countries.
Julia E. Sweig is the Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America studies, director for Latin America studies, and director of the Global Brazil initiative at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). She is the author of Cuba: What Everyone Needs to Know and Friendly Fire: Losing Friends and Making Enemies in the Anti-American Century, as well as of numerous publications on Latin America and American foreign policy. She has directed several CFR reports on Latin America. Sweig’s Inside the Cuban Revolution: Fidel Castro and the Urban Underground received the American Historical Association’s Herbert Feis Award for best book of the year by an independent scholar.
Tanisha N. Tingle-Smith is the principal and founder of Verdade Consulting, a boutique Brazil-focused risk advisory and research consultancy. Her research specializes in Brazilian international relations, with particular focus on the geoeconomics of Brazil’s relations with the Global South. She has presented at and contributed to articles and book chapters for U.S. and international universities. In 2008–2009, she was a consultant at the United Nations Development Program on Brazil-Africa South-South development exchange. Earlier, she served as foreign policy analyst and adviser with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the departments of State and Treasury. She received department recognition and awards for her analytic work. From 1995 to 2001, she was an analyst and assistant vice president for Latin America economic research with Salomon Smith Barney and Merrill Lynch. She is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She holds an MIA from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.
James D. Wolfensohn is chairman of Wolfensohn & Company, LLC, chairman of Citigroup’s international advisory board, and adviser to Citigroup’s senior management on global strategy and on international matters. In 2006, he established the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution. Wolfensohn was president of the World Bank Group from 1995 to 2005. He was special envoy for Gaza disengagement for the quartet of the Middle East; president and CEO of James D. Wolfensohn, Inc.; executive partner of Salomon Brothers, New York; executive deputy chairman and managing director of Schroders, London; president of J. Henry Schroders Banking Corporation, New York; and managing director of Darling & Co., Australia. He is chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for Performing Arts and of Carnegie Hall. In addition, he has been president of the International Federation of Multiple Sclerosis Societies, chairman of the board of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton University, director of the Business Council for Sustainable Development, chairman of the finance committee and a director of the Rockefeller Foundation and the Population Council, and a member of the board of Rockefeller University. He is an honorary trustee of the Brookings Institution, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Century Association.

*Gacek participated in the Task Force under his previous affiliation with the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations. As a current administration official, he has not been asked to join the Task Force consensus.

Brazil in the Council on Foreign Relations - Joao Augusto de Castro Neves

Brazil's Evolutionary Election
Interviewee: João Augusto de Castro Neves, Political Analyst, CAC Political Consultancy
Interviewer: Roya Wolverson, Staff Writer, CFR.org
Council on Foreign Relations, October 4, 2010

Brazil's October 3 presidential election gave no decisive answer as to who will lead the world's fourth largest democracy in 2011. A potentially complicated runoff election is scheduled for October 31. Brazilian political analyst João Augusto de Castro Neves says Workers' Party candidate and presidential favorite Dilma Rousseff--who garnered 46.9 percent of the vote--is still likely to prevail, despite a potential deal between her two rivals to pool votes behind remaining candidate Jose Serra of the Social Democratic Party--who received 32.6 percent of the vote. Financial markets' non-reaction to the country's election reflects growing international confidence in Brazil's maturing democracy and economic progress, says de Castro Neves. But the next president will still need to create better economic policies that avoid traditional emergency economic plans and instead tackle the country's new "risks of living with abundance," he says. On the diplomatic front, either candidate would likely ease away from close relations with authoritarian regimes like Iran and Cuba, since these initiatives were the result of President Lula da Silva's "hyperactive presidential diplomacy," he says.

There is speculation that front-running Workers' Party candidate Dilma Rousseff might be challenged by a deal between her close competitor Jose Serra and the Green Party Candidate, Marina Silva. How will that play out in the runoff on October 31?
A look at Brazil's recent history shows that even when there's a runoff, usually the one that was first place is still the favorite.It was a surprise that Rousseff didn't win in the first round, but she's still the favorite, [considering President] Lula de Silva's popularity plays in her favor. The "transfer of votes" idea is very uncertain in Brazil. Even if the Green Party's Silva declares that she'll support Serra, that doesn't meant that all 19 percent of voters will go and vote for Serra.
During the past few presidential elections, we were talking about undoing everything that the predecessor did in terms of policies. We're passed that now, which means our democracy is maturing.

Why did Silva make a bigger-than-expected gain in the election?
First, opinion polls in Brazil tend to inflate the numbers of the official candidate, so some say they didn't pick up on Marina Silva's numbers. There's basically a mistake in the methodology of opinion polls in Brazil, but there is also a lot of dissatisfaction with the bipartisan politics in Brazil between the Workers' Party (PT) and the Social Democratic Party (PSDB). The Green Party actually came as a third choice, [as] a protest vote and an ideological vote with Marina. It's a party that tends to be much less tainted by scandals than PT and PSDB.
The Green Party in Brazil is not traditionally very strong except in a few cities such as Rio de Janeiro. Marina's achievement in this election confirms that the Green Party is becoming a real national party. But I wouldn't go as far as saying that this is a trend, that the Green Party will be a third force in Brazilian politics. It's too soon to tell.

Brazil's stock market, bonds, and currency all remained strong leading up to the vote, unlike during the volatile 2002 presidential election when Lula prevailed. Are Brazil's growth prospects now that set in stone?
There are economic challenges, but things are not so unstable in Brazil today as they were years ago. Today, there are a few imperatives that every candidate has to face in Brazil, the first imperative being economic stability. The real plan that was established in the 1990s--which stabilized the economy through monetary policy, fiscal policy, and exchange rate policy--is now respected by every political force in the country. There's also the social imperative: cash transfer programs for poverty alleviation. There isn't a single major political party in Brazil that would challenge these two imperatives. During the past few presidential elections, we were talking about undoing everything that the predecessor did in terms of policies. We're passed that now, which means our democracy is maturing, but there are still a lot of challenges ahead, especially welfare reform [and] tax reform.

What kind of policies can we expect from a new government in tempering the strength of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar, which harms Brazil's export industry?
Interest rates in Brazil are so high, and have been so historically, to fight inflation. Brazil is seen as a good place to put your money, because as the economy stabilizes and they have high interest rates, people think, "Let's send our dollars there." Petrobras, the state-owned enterprise, is also planning to invest billions of dollars to explore the country's newly discovered oil reserves, which have been attracting a lot of capital. The challenge is trying to lower interest rates and stabilize the flow of capital in and outside the country. But it's a new moment in Brazilian politics, and the environment of abundance creates risks of politicians being more lax. Brazil is not used to having good economic indicators, so we have to learn how to deal with the risks of living with abundance. We've always dealt with the opposite problem: not having enough money to invest, [which] led to trying to cut down expenditures and fix the economy in an emergency manner. But there isn't a historic example for politicians to follow. Rousseff is not facing directly this problem. Her [policies would be] business as usual. With Serra, on the other hand, some economists close to him are saying, "We have to curb public expenditure, reduce government wages, increase public investments on infrastructure."

Do you expect the next government to carry on Lula's close ties to authoritarian leaders such as Cuba's Fidel Castro, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, despite the strain on U.S. relations?
The only thing that Brazil wants from the United States is to be recognized not only as an important regional player, but an important global player.
Whether Serra or Rousseff wins, I expect the rhetoric to deflate a little, because a lot of this more assertive foreign policy in Brazil has to do with Lula's popularity and international charisma. Lula's hyperactive presidential diplomacy played a really important part in Brazil's controversial stances on the Iranian nuclear program, Cuba, Honduras' coup d'etat. Neither Rousseff nor Serra have Lula's popularity or charisma, so the foreign ministry--which is traditionally very risk-averse--will probably have more autonomy to adjust foreign policy to be more secure. If Rousseff wins, there wouldn't be a radical shift, since that would be recognizing that what Lula did was wrong or was a mistake. If Serra wins, you would expect a clearer shift.
In relation to the United States, it's always been a history of unmatched expectations or frustrations on both sides. Latin America and Brazil are not seen by the U.S. State Department as priorities. Even the fact that, when [Secretary of State] Hillary Clinton or the State Department refers to Brazil, it's usually as part of a greater Latin American project, and not in terms of Brazil as an emerging country or as bilateral relations the way the U.S. is with China, Russia, and India. But the policy agenda of Brazil is very different from the rest of Latin America. We're seeing a turning point in the United States about how to deal with Brazil. Should we deal with Brazil as just one more country in Latin America, under the Latin America agenda umbrella? Or should we deal with Brazil as an emerging power, like we deal with India, China, etc.? I believe the latter, but it's a transition. The United States doesn't have much to offer Brazil right now, and I don't think Brazil wants a lot from the United States. It's good for Brazil to have the United States looking elsewhere, looking at the Middle East, looking at other places, and leaving Brazil to do its own thing. The only thing that Brazil wants from the United States is to be recognized not only as an important regional player, but an important global player. That explains Brazil's stances in cases such as Honduras, Brazil's mission with the UN in Haiti, its adventures in the Middle East, [and] in Iran.