O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

Meu Twitter: https://twitter.com/PauloAlmeida53

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/paulobooks

Mostrando postagens com marcador Simon Romero. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Simon Romero. Mostrar todas as postagens

quarta-feira, 19 de junho de 2013

Deu no New York Times: protestos se ampliam no Brasil

Protests Widen as Brazilians Chide Leaders

By 


The New York Times, 19/06/2013
SÃO PAULO, Brazil — Shaken by the biggest challenge to their authority in years, Brazil’s leaders made conciliatory gestures on Tuesday to try to defuse the protests engulfing the nation’s cities. But the demonstrators remained defiant, pouring into the streets by the thousands and venting their anger over political corruption, the high cost of living and huge public spending for the World Cup and the Olympics.
In a convulsion that has caught many in Brazil and beyond by surprise, waves of protesters denounced their leaders for dedicating so many resources to cultivating Brazil’s global image by building stadiums for international events, when basic services like education and health care remain woefully inadequate.
“I love soccer, but we need schools,” said Evaldir Cardoso, 48, a fireman at a protest here with his 7-month-old son.
The demonstrations initially began with a fury over a hike in bus fares, but as with many other protest movements in recent years — in Tunisia, Egypt or, most recently, Turkey — they quickly evolved into a much broader condemnation of the government.
By the time politicians in several cities backed down on Tuesday and announced that they would cut or consider reducing fares, the demonstrations had already morphed into a more sweeping social protest, with marchers waving banners carrying slogans like “The people have awakened.”
“It all seemed so wonderful in the Brazil oasis, and suddenly we are reliving the demonstrations of Tahrir Square in Cairo, so suddenly, without warning, without a crescendo,” said Eliane Cantanhêde, a columnist for the newspaper Folha de São Paulo. “We were all caught by surprise. From paradise, we have slipped at least into limbo. What is happening in Brazil?”
Thousands gathered at São Paulo’s main cathedral and made their way to the mayor’s office, where a small group smashed windows and tried to break in, forcing guards to withdraw.
In Juazeiro do Norte, demonstrators cornered the mayor inside a bank for hours and called for his impeachment, while thousands of others protested teachers’ salaries. In Rio de Janeiro, thousands protested in a gritty area far from the city’s upscale seaside districts. In other cities, demonstrators blocked roads, barged into City Council meetings or interrupted sessions of local lawmakers, clapping loudly and sometimes taking over the microphone.
The protests rank among the largest outpourings of dissent since the nation’s military dictatorship ended in 1985. After a harsh police crackdown last week fueled anger and swelled protests, President Dilma Rousseff, a former guerrilla who was imprisoned under the dictatorship and has now become the target of pointed criticism herself, tried to appease dissenters by embracing their cause on Tuesday.
“These voices, which go beyond traditional mechanisms, political parties and the media itself, need to be heard,” Ms. Rousseff said. “The greatness of yesterday’s demonstrations were proof of the energy of our democracy.”
Her tone stood in sharp contrast to the approach adopted by Turkey, where similar demonstrations over what might also have seemed an isolated issue — the fate of a city park in Istanbul — quickly escalated into a broad rejection of the government’s legitimacy from a vocal section of the population.
But while Turkey’s prime minister has dismissed the protesters as terrorists, vandals and “bums,” Ms. Rousseff seemed acutely aware of the breadth of frustration in Brazil over the gap between the nation’s global aspirations and the reality for many millions of its people.
The protests in Brazil are unfolding just as its long and heralded economic boom may be coming to an end. The economy has slowed to a pale shadow of its growth in recent years; inflation is high, the currency is declining sharply against the dollar — but the expectations of Brazilians have rarely been higher, feeding broad intolerance with corruption, bad schools and other government failings.
“These protests are in favor of common sense,” said Roberto da Matta, a leading cultural commentator. “We pay an absurd amount of taxes in Brazil, and now more people are questioning what they get in return.”
One of Ms. Rousseff’s senior aides said Tuesday that tax measures already adopted by the authorities would allow São Paulo to lower bus fares considerably, though it was unclear whether the concession was too late and too limited to derail the protest movement.
One of the major complaints among demonstrators is government corruption, as evidenced by the trial involving senior figures in the governing Workers Party in one of Brazil’s largest political scandals in recent memory.
None of the officials sentenced in the trials has yet gone to prison, despite the prosecution’s contention that they should have begun serving their sentences immediately after the high court announced them in November.
“We’re furious about what our political leaders do, their corruption,” said Enderson dos Santos, 35, an office worker protesting in São Paulo. “I’m here to show my children that Brazil has woken up.”
Some of the stadiums being built for the World Cup soccer tournament, scheduled for next year, have also been criticized for delays and cost overruns, and have become subjects of derision as protesters question whether they will become white elephants. One in Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon, will have capacity for 43,000, but it is in a city where average attendance at professional soccer games stands at fewer than 600 fans.
Government institutions seem prepared to continue plowing public funds into the projects. A Brazilian newspaper reported Tuesday that the national development bank had approved a new loan of about $200 million for Itaquerão, a new stadium in São Paulo that is expected to host the opening match of the World Cup.
“When you see the investments in health and education and then you compare that to the massive investments to carry out the World Cup, it is clear that this provokes a certain indignation,” said Adão Clóvis Martins dos Santos, a sociologist at Catholic University in Porto Alegre.
But near Avenida Paulista, São Paulo’s most prominent thoroughfare, the scene was festive. Some protesters sipped cans of beer. Marijuana smoke emanated from parts of the crowd. Many painted stripes on their faces with green and yellow paint, the colors of the Brazilian flag.
“People are going hungry and the government builds stadiums,” said Eleuntina Scuilgaro, an 83-year-old pensioner at the protests here in São Paulo. “I’m here for my granddaughters. If you’re tired, go home, take a shower and return. That’s what I’m doing.”
Paula Ramon contributed reporting from São Paulo, and Taylor Barnes from Rio de Janeiro.

The Rising Cost of Living in Brazil

Brazilians have seen the cost of many components of urban life rise at rates that surpass inflation generally. Expenses like private education and health care are common for many who are concerned with the quality of the public services.
INFLATION
’13
’00
’13
’00
’13
’00
200%
150
100
50
0
Groceries
Rents and city taxes
Private health care
Soccer tickets
Urban bus fares
Private education
and materials
’13
’00
’13
’00
’13
’00
250%
200
150
100
50
0

quarta-feira, 27 de março de 2013

Petrobras decadente: deu no New York Times

Petrobras, Once Symbol of Brazil’s Oil Hopes, Strives to Regain Lost Swagger
By SIMON ROMERO
The New York Times, March 26, 2013

RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s oil production is falling, casting doubt on what was supposed to be an oil bonanza. Imports of gasoline are rising rapidly, exposing the country to the whims of global energy markets. Even the nation’s ethanol industry, once envied as a model of renewable energy, has had to import ethanol from the United States.

Half a decade has passed since Brazilians celebrated the discovery of huge amounts of oil in deep-sea fields by the national oil company, Petrobras, triumphantly positioning the country to surge into the top ranks of global producers. But now another kind of energy shock is unfolding: the colossal company, long known for its might, is losing the race to keep up with the nation’s growing energy demands.

Saddled with a nationalist mandate to buy ships, oil platforms and other equipment from lethargic Brazilian companies, the oil giant is now facing soaring debt, major projects mired in delays and older fields, once prodigious, that are yielding less oil. The undersea bounty in its grasp also remains devilishly complex to exploit.

Now, instead of symbolizing Brazil’s rise as a global powerhouse, Petrobras embodies the sluggishness of the nation’s economy itself, which, after racing ahead at 7.5 percent in 2010, slowed to less than 1 percent last year, eclipsed by growth in other Latin American nations like Mexico and Peru.

Until recently, Petrobras was second in value only to ExxonMobil among publicly traded energy companies. But its fortunes have tumbled to the point that it is now worth less than Colombia’s national oil company. That fall has accentuated an increasingly bitter debate here over President Dilma Rousseff’s attempts to use Petrobras to shield the Brazilian population from the nation’s economic slowdown.

“Petrobras was once thought indestructible, but that is no longer the case,” said Adriano Pires, a prominent Brazilian energy consultant. “Petrobras is now a tool of short-term economic policy, used to protect domestic industry from competition and fight inflation. This disastrous process will intensify if it is not reversed.”

Ms. Rousseff, like her predecessor and political mentor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has relied heavily on state companies like Petrobras to create jobs and spur the economy. As a result, the president and her top advisers argue, unemployment remains near historic lows, an approach in economic management that contrasts sharply with Europe and the United States.

In a recent speech, Ms. Rousseff explained that her government’s priority was lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty.

“Those betting against us,” she warned, “will suffer serious financial and political losses.”

To bolster Ms. Rousseff’s approval ratings going into a presidential election in 2014, Petrobras is building new refineries, pursuing offshore oil and buying most of its equipment from Brazilian companies, all of which have created tens of thousands of jobs and delivered some tangible political benefits.

“My life is better,” said Adinael Soares Silva, 38, a welder at a Petrobras refinery under construction in Itaboraí, a city near Rio de Janeiro. He said he was pleased with his salary of about $800 a month. “Where I was, I didn’t have enough to have a savings account,” he said. “Now I do.”

But while Petrobras has helped keep Brazil’s unemployment low, around 5.4 percent, a growing chorus of critics points to the obvious problems at the company, including its backlog of projects and an inability to satisfy the country’s thirst for oil, forcing it to import foreign gasoline and sell it at a loss.

After Brazil made its deep-sea oil discoveries in 2007, the government pushed to put Petrobras firmly in control of the new areas, a move that critics say could strain the company even further. It was a marked departure from the 1990s, when authorities ended Petrobras’s monopoly as part of a radical restructuring of the economy. Petrobras remained under state control but was exposed to market forces, emerging as a hybrid nimbly competing with foreign oil companies.

Today, Petrobras seems far less nimble. In 2012, its production fell 2 percent, the first such decline in years.

The international energy industry is also changing, especially in the United States, as momentum shifts toward extracting oil and natural gas from onshore shale formations. Brazil is thought to have large shale reserves itself, but the government remains focused on its costly deep-sea megaprojects.

“The United States is redrawing the global petroleum map, while in Brazil euphoria has given way to inertia,” Folha de São Paulo, one of Brazil’s most influential newspapers, said in a recent editorial.

Compounding matters, Brazil’s demand for gasoline surged about 20 percent in 2012, reflecting a car-manufacturing industry that has boomed partly as a result of government efforts to lift production.

Petrobras still lacks enough refineries able to process crude oil, forcing it to buy increasing amounts of gasoline from abroad. And it is still losing money on gasoline imports as the government keeps domestic fuel prices relatively low, to keep inflation from accelerating in a slow-growing economy.

Energy analysts contend that the government is using Petrobras to further its own political objectives. Ms. Rousseff’s administration, for instance, has hewed to measures aimed at reviving the country’s shipbuilding industry, by requiring Petrobras to buy many of its ships and oil platforms from Brazilian shipyards.

But these ventures have struggled with large cost overruns of their own, sometimes delivering vessels late or not at all, cutting into Petrobras’s hopes of meeting ambitious production targets.

Then there are the delays at oil refineries under construction. One such complex, in Pernambuco State, was conceived in 2005 as a way for Brazil to forge closer political ties with oil-rich Venezuela. Eight years later, Venezuela has yet to invest in the project, which has faced various delays as Petrobras shoulders the entire cost of building it.

Describing the accumulation of problems at Petrobras, Exame, Brazil’s top business magazine, bluntly accused the government of “destroying Brazil’s largest company,” accompanying the claim with an illustration of a fuel dispenser from a filling station in the shape of a noose.

The sense of dismay reflects, at least in part, Petrobras’s stature. Founded in 1953, it wields clout from its Brutalist-style headquarters here in spheres well beyond the energy industry, sponsoring everything from literary festivals to the Carnival celebration in Salvador, a city in northeast Brazil.

Despite the challenges it faces, Petrobras remains profitable and much less constrained by political ideology than some other large national oil companies. In Mexico, for instance, Pemex has long retained its monopoly status despite production declines, and now the government is considering opening it to greater private investment.

Petrobras is also far more transparent than Petróleos de Venezuela, the national oil company that President Hugo Chávez, who died this month, transformed into an extremely politicized pillar of his government, purging it of thousands of employees after a bitter strike and forcing it to focus on new tasks like food distribution.

Maria das Graças Foster, the chief executive of Petrobras, has been exceptionally frank about the company’s problems. In recent conference calls with analysts, she said that oil production should remain steady this year or perhaps even decline slightly again. But she also responded sharply to critics, claiming that output from the new deep-sea fields had reached 300,000 barrels a day. By 2020, the company expects to double overall production to 4.2 million barrels a day.

Other executives at the company have similarly sought to temper expectations that Brazil will enter a robust phase of energy independence.

José Carlos Cosenza, a Petrobras executive, has warned that Brazil may need to import large amounts of fuel for almost another decade. Moreover, gasoline demand is expected to climb even higher as Brazilians buy more cars.

Taylor Barnes contributed reporting.