Six questions for … David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute. You may not think of “Bush” when you think of President-elect Donald Trump — especially when it comes to foreign policy — but Kramer sees some common ground with the incoming administration. He’s encouraged in particular by some of Trump’s planned nominees, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) for secretary of state. We spoke with Kramer twice, including after Wednesday’s announcement of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. There has since been a partisan debate over who deserves credit for the breakthrough, but Kramer told us the deal was more broadly a reminder of the vital role the United States can play on the world stage. It’s a role that Trump has put up for debate as he prepares to take office Monday, vowing to put “America first” in foreign policy. The Bush Institute has released a range of policy recommendations for the next administration and the new Congress, in an effort to “stake out what is the right way” on the most pressing issues, as Kramer put it. Here’s what he had to say about other foreign policy issues awaiting Trump. This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity. Your policy recommendations for the Russia-Ukraine war, which include NATO membership for Ukraine, are more friendly to Ukraine than at least Trump’s campaign rhetoric would suggest he supports. What gives you hope he’ll see things differently in office? I think one of the realities that will hit the new administration is [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s lack of interest in a negotiated settlement. You just had … the former minister of Russia reiterating opposition to the initial positions that they think the Trump team will be staking out. And basically what Putin wants is Ukraine’s surrender. He wants a change in government, he wants Ukraine to remain permanently neutral and he wants recognition of Russian territories, including land that Russia doesn’t even currently occupy. And so I think this reality … will hit the new administration and might well lead them to recognizing the importance of continuing to support Ukraine militarily as well as politically. I think [Ukrainian] President [Volodymyr] Zelensky has been rather skillful in his approach indicating a readiness to negotiate, but based on a just outcome … an outcome that does not consign in a permanent way — not just Ukrainian land, but millions of Ukrainians who live on that land. And of course NATO has become a central issue in President Zelensky’s willingness to talk about an end to the war. He feels that solid security guarantees are critical to any Ukrainian effort in ending this war, and for the Ukrainians, the best guarantees come from NATO membership. How do you evaluate Trump’s appointments so far? Some are more conventional GOP voices on foreign policy — such as Rubio — some less so — such as Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence. The secretary of state and the national security adviser [Michael Waltz], you have two figures with significant experience in foreign policy, people who I think have a good understanding of present challenges that are posed from our adversaries, stressing the importance of U.S. leadership in many ways. I think John Ratcliffealso falls into this category based on his experience not just on the Hill but his previous role as the [director of national intelligence]. The other ones are a little harder to judge because there’s not a lot of background on what their positions are, and I think that will come out through their confirmation hearings. On countering China, Trump seems to be entering office sending mixed signals — perhaps most notably by trying to save TikTok. What can he do to signal seriousness about the threat of China? [Rubio and Waltz] are two individuals who do have a track record of recognizing the challenge and threat that China poses under the Communist Party leadership. I think with the two of them there, we’re likely to see a push for a harder line, but also a recognition that trade with China is also important. The big question mark … will be the issue of tariffs. But we also … want to emphasize more the importance of human rights when it comes to China, and this gets at, I think, a common thread in what we call CRINK, the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea alliance, which are authoritarian regimes that are trying to undermine the West and the United States. And at the root of their commonality are gross abuses of human rights. When we tie these threats together, how we respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I think, will have an impact on the Chinese Communist Party’s thinking toward Taiwan. If we stand firm, if we maintain support for Ukraine, I think that we could get the Chinese leadership to think twice before they might move against Taiwan. How confident are you that Trump and his GOP allies understand this interconnectedness? I think increasingly [they do], and I think when you look at the early stages of the full-scale invasion by Russia of Ukraine, we saw the Iranians provide critical support in the form of the Shahed drones. I think what’s also highlighted this connection is the decision by North Korea to send 12,000 or so of its troops to join Russian forces in its fight against Ukraine. So we are seeing quite explicitly and openly these regimes helping each other out … and in the process, they pose a great threat. On an issue closer to home, your immigration policy briefsays Congress should “lift or eliminate caps on temporary worker visa programs like the H-2B and H-1B.” Have you been pleasantly surprised that Trump has been recently sticking up for H-1B visas amid some in his party bashing them? We think those are important, and it’s important that we recognize that if there is a roundup and deportation of a number of people who are here illegally, that will have an impact on the labor force … on companies’ ability to produce what they have been so far with those laborers. And so we certainly support an improvement and reform of the legal immigration system here to ensure that our economy can continue to grow, and we think that H-2B and the H-1B are important parts of that. On the ceasefire deal, how does this tee up Trump’s policy toward Israel going forward? There’ll be a lot of work for the United States to do with the various phases of this deal to ensure that it moves forward and that Hamas in particular lives up to what it has agreed to. And so, I think, while hopefully the fighting has ended, there’ll still be a lot of work to do. We all have to remember this would not have happened if Hamas did not launch the worst attack against Israel and Jews since the Holocaust.
| 
Minha publicação mais recente: 1325. “ Historiografia das relações internacionais do Brasil”, Revista do Instituto His...
