Inconvenient Questions about the Russia-Ukraine War
Graham AllisonBelfer Center at Harvard University, February 22, 2023
As we come to the end of the first year of the Russia-Ukraine War, no one can doubt who the big winner is—and who the big loser. Most current public discussion reflects a conviction that Ukraine must—and can—win a decisive victory. On the larger strategic chessboard, it has already done so by defying Putin’s attempt to erase it from the map. But as we think about the war on the battlefield and ask when and whether this phase of the hot war may subside, it is time for a reality check. In a piece today for The Washington Post I consider four inconvenient but inescapable questions.
If what is at stake is not just Ukraine’s survival, but the future of Europe and even the global order, why are there no American troops fighting on the battlefield alongside brave Ukrainians? Think about it. Anyone who has trouble answering it has not—in my view—penetrated the reality zone.
Is CIA Director Bill Burns right when he asserts that Ukraine is a war that “Putin cannot lose?” Why?
If the fighting somehow ended today, would anyone have a doubt about who won and who lost?
If we imagine a map of Europe in 2030 and weigh the factors that could shape Ukraine’s place on it, how much would it matter whether the killing stopped 100 miles to the east, or alternatively, to the west of the current line of control?
None of these questions have easy answers. Response to them deserves serious debate. In the hope of stimulating debate about them, I’ve stated my short answers provocatively. If you have reactions, please send along.
Graham Allison
Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School
https://click.comms.hks.harvard.edu/?qs=d9f88efdf5f61c5dde708a6837b526a5f0d7dc786ed00e3843f4b2a93f391bd2fadb96cebf2ee56307891d6a226d5f0f979395b0cff6a55b
