Russia's war on Ukraine. 01.05.24
In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia", on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the areas of Berestove, Stelmakhivka and east of Kopanka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 21 attacks in the areas of Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, and Serebriansk Forest. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Rozdolivka, Spirne, Novyi, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar.
In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 enemy attacks in the areas of Arkhanhelske, Keramik, Sokil, Umanske, Semenivka, Yasnobrodivks, and Netaylove. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Praskoviivka, and Urozhaine, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops' defenses 18 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 5 times in the area of Staromayorske, Robotyne and southwest of Bilohirya.
In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 2 unsuccessful attacks.
General conclusion:
· The command of the Russian forces is executing a significant troop movement between operational directions.
· The adversary's command has initiated the repositioning of operational-tactical and army aviation assets from forward airbases, including those situated deep within the operational theater, to the interior of Russian territory following the delivery of long-range strike capabilities, such as ATACMS missiles, to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The overall strength of enemy aviation units deployed directly at forward airbases has decreased from 303-305 units of combat and special aviation to 280-283 units.
· Russian troops persist in maneuvering around Chasiv Yar from the flanks via Bohdanivka in the northeast and Ivanivske in the east, bolstering their presence to advance towards the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal. The frequency of attacks on Chasiv Yar surpasses those on the Avdiivka direction, where the adversary has temporarily halted its push.
· The adversary's tactics near Chasiv Yar remain consistent, resembling the operation near Bakhmut: initially, positions are assaulted by "Storm-Z" and "Storm-V" punitive units followed by assault landing units that consolidate their gains.
· Russian forces are advancing near Keramik to move towards Arkhanhelske, while also attempting to push westward from Ocheretyne towards Sokol and southwest towards Novopokrovske – Novoselivka Persha.
· The adversary's tactics in the Ocheretyne and Novokalynove areas have shifted. The enemy seeks unmined gaps between the Ukrainian defense positions, attacking through them and advancing northward, parallel to the Ukrainian defensive line.
· The adversary's attempts to consolidate their positions northwest of Avdiivka force them to choose between advancing westward towards Pokrovsk or moving north to support the grouping operating near Chasiv Yar.
· The "Tavriya" OSG command, not waiting for tactical losses, replaced several forward units with fresh ones, indicating the presence of reserves and proper control of the situation by the OSG command staff.
· Mechanical malfunction was detected in GLSDB ammunition, causing the separation section of the deployment block to fail, leading to GBU-39 misses. The Ukrainian Defense Forces have suspended the use of GBU-39 until the manufacturer resolves the issue, which is unrelated to GPS signal interference.
· Anonymous Telegram channels spread false information about an alleged emergency at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant which reportedly resulted in increased radiation levels in the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions.
Change in the line of contact (LoC):
· There were 122 combat engagements on various fronts.
· On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked positions held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the central and southeast sectors of Kyslivka, but only managed to advance in the eastern sector. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Berestove, Krokhmalne, Stelmakhivka, Kopanka, Raihorodka, Tverdokhlibove, Novoserhiivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, and Nevske.
· On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control over previously lost positions near Kreminna, advanced east of Yampolivka, reclaiming positions along the windbreaks in that area.
· Positional battles persisted in the areas of Terny, Torske, Zarichne, near the Serebriansk Forest, and near Bilohorivka.
· On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled attacks by the enemy’s 6th and 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army Corps in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Rozdolivka. Russian forces advanced to the eastern bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal south of Chasiv Yar, where underground sections of the canal are located. Enemy special operations forces intensified their activities during the night. Battles persisted near the “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, New York, Shumy, and Pivdenne. The enemy aviation continued to strike the area of the "Kanal" neighborhood.
· On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary is focused on achieving tactical success near Ocheretyne and Novokalynove. The enemy's penetration into Ukrainian defenses is assessed by the following indicators: 2.7 km along the front and 1.52 km in depth north of Novokalynove, 1.75 km along the front and 1.15 km in depth northwest of Ocheretyne towards Novooleksandrivka. The adversary advanced west of Semenivka and Berdychi.
· Battles persisted near Arkhanhelske, Sokol, Solovyove, Umanske, and Netaylove. Russian forces near Ocheretyne are located 13 km from the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway.
· On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced up to 450 meters along the front line of up to 1 kilometer on the northeast outskirts of Krasnohorivka. Combat operations were ongoing in the areas of Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps of the enemy is advancing near Novomykhailivka.
· On the Berdyansk direction, units of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army advanced up to 1 km near Staromayorske. The intensity of combat in the area of Velyka Novosilka has increased. Enemy aircraft are striking Ukrainian positions in this area with glide bombs. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Staromayorske, Urozhaine, Pryiutne, and Novodarivka.
· On the Orikhiv direction, the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army have advanced to the western outskirts of Robotyne. Combat operations were ongoing northwest of Verbove. Enemy aviation operates at low altitudes, exploiting the limited capabilities of the Air Defense Forces of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on this direction.
· On the Kherson direction, the enemy launched mass shelling of Nestryha Island, attempted to land a landing force there, and recapture lost positions but suffered losses and retreated. Russian forces also unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions near Krynky.
· In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
o Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.
Changes in the enemy disposition:
· The operational deployment of enemy "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping in its operational zone on the territory of the Russian Federation (border areas of Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts of the Russian Federation) continues, with completion expected by May 7-8. The 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division, and the 197th Separated C2 Battalion of the 44th Army Corps have arrived in Kursk Oblast. The 44th Army Corps comprises up to 3,700 personnel and up to 450 units of military equipment. The " Sever (North)" Operational Grouping has already deployed up to 50,000 personnel.
· The relocation of the 76th Airborne Division from the operational zone of the "Dnieper" Operational Grouping on the Orikhiv direction either to the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping in Luhansk Oblast or to the "South" Operational Grouping on the Kramatorsk direction is ongoing. One airborne battalion is currently in transit.
· Four Su-30SM fighters and four Su-25 attack aircraft have been moved from Eisk to Privolzhsky, Armavir airbases. Eight Su-25 attack aircraft from Taganrog are now at Budenovsk. Four MiG-31BM fighters from Primorsko-Akhtarsk have been redeployed to Privolzhsky. Two Su-35 fighters from Tikhoretsk are now stationed at Akhtubinsk. Five Su-30SM fighters from Krymsk are relocated to Privolzhsky. Four Su-25 attack aircraft from Millerovo are transferred to Budennovsk. Five Su-30SM fighters and five Su-24M bombers from Saki are now at Eisk. Two Su-35 fighters from Baltimore (Voronezh) are relocated to Lipetsk. After a missile strike by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Kushchevskaya, up to seven Su-35 fighters from Akhtubinsk are moved. Overall, during the day 43 aircraft of various types were withdrawn from the area targeted by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Escalation indicators:
· The enemy is intensifying its efforts in the vicinity of Ocheretyne and increasing pressure on the flanks of this breach.
Possible operation situation developments:
· The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.
· The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation. Russian forces may decide to advance north of the salient near Ocheretyne along the N20 Donetsk-Kostyantynivka highway to put pressure on the Ukrainian Defense Forces defending in the area of Toretsk, and possibly threaten the "Tavriya" OSG operational rear and the areas west of Chasiv Yar.
· The "Center" Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle "Tavriya" OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.
· The enemy's "Vostok" Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the "Yug" Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.
· The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces' ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.
· In the imminent timeframe, the adversary will attempt to reach the Stara Mykolaivka-Sukha Balka line.
Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.01.24
Personnel - almost 469,840 (+1120);
Tanks 7,312 (+5);
Armored combat vehicles – 14,067 (+21);
Artillery systems – 12,024 (+13);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,053 (0);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 780 (+1);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,175 (+33);
Aircraft - 348 (0);
Helicopters – 325 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 9,538 (+7);
Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,126 (0);
Boats/ships – 27 (0).
Humanitarian+general:
· According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 121 towns and villages and 138 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.
· Four people were injured as a result of Russian artillery shelling and a kamikaze drone strike on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast that occurred on the evening of April 30.
· During the night of May 1st, Russian occupying forces launched three Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting densely populated areas of the city of Odesa. Three people were killed, and three others were injured in the attack.
· At 10:00 on May 1, Russian forces carried out airstrikes using guided aerial bombs targeting a car and a private residence in the village of Zolochiv, Bogodukhiv district, Kharkiv Oblast. The attack resulted in two fatalities and nine injuries. Around 16:10, the Russian army also shelled the village of Lyptsi. A 78-year-old woman sustained shrapnel wounds and later died.
· On the morning of May 1st, Russian military forces launched an attack on the village of Kalynove in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the death of one individual and injuring two others. In the afternoon, Russian forces struck the city of Hirnyk in Donetsk Oblast with "Uragan" missile systems. A man and a woman were killed, while six others sustained injuries.
· One girl and two boys have been successfully brought back from the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast to the area under Ukrainian control. The 11-year-old girl was deprived of parental care and was at risk of ending up in an occupied orphanage. Accompanying her were two boys, aged 9 and 13. They were being cared for by their older adult brother on the occupied territory, who was at risk of being conscripted into the Russian army.
· Ukrainian court sentenced a serviceman from the 94th Operational Deployment Regiment of the Russian National Guard to 12 years in prison for raping a female resident of the occupied Kherson Oblast.
· Ivan Fedorov, the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration, announced plans to construct five underground schools in Zaporizhzhia city and the surrounding district. The objective is to offer the option for all interested children to resume in-person learning. Ultimately, the plan includes the establishment of 10 underground schools.
Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com
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