O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador Antony P. Mueller. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Antony P. Mueller. Mostrar todas as postagens

terça-feira, 22 de junho de 2021

150 anos da Escola Austríaca: número temático do Mises Journal; Call For Papers - Antony P. Mueller

 

Call for Papers (2021) - Mises Journal 

Thematic Issue: Austrian School of Economics, 150 years

2021-06-22

Mises Journal (http://www.misesjournal.org.br ; e-ISSN: 2594-9187) is an international forum for discussing the Austrian School of Economics ideas and related topics. We provide an interdisciplinary outlet for research interested in the Austro-libertarian views of Law, Economics, Philosophy and their applications in the other social sciences.

2021 is especially important for the Austrian school and for the Instituto Mises Brasil (IMB). It marks the 150th anniversary of the publication of Carl Menger 's Principles of Political Economy, which inaugurated Austrian School and supports it to this day. In this special issue, we invite high-quality manuscripts on various aspects and applications of the Austrian School, its associated disciplines, on how the Austrian School, the heir of the classical school of Cantillon, Smith and Ricardo, manages to be able to discuss problems of modernity.

Articles will be accepted in English, Spanish and Portuguese.

Topics of interest include:

  • Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
  • Great Reset
  • Fourth Industrial Revolution
  • ESG: Environmental, social and corporate governance
  • Other discussions on the modern societal problems that might be dealt with using the theoretical groundings of the Austrian School are also welcome

The thematic edition will be published as the 2021 Special Edition, and these are the important dates:

  • Deadline for submission: August 15;
  • Editor's evaluation and first response to the authors: until August 23;
  • Authors will receive comments from reviewers: until October 5;
  • Author´s corrections to reviewers' comments: until October 20;
  • Publication: end of December.

Special Volume Submission

We will follow the standard requirements for regular papers published by the Mises Journal, the guidelines for which are on our website (here). All submissions will follow the single-blind peer review process. Papers should be relevant to an international and multidisciplinary audience.

When submitting an article for this issue, select "Special Issue 2021 " in the submission system.

 Regular Issue Submission

If your manuscript does not meet the requirements of this special issue, we suggest that you submit it to the regular editions at the Mises Journal. We receive applications regularly, and our editorial process is supported by a group of about 50 professors spread around the world.

Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Adriano Paranaiba, IFG, / Instituto Mises Brasil (IMB)

Special Issue Guest Editor: Dr. Antony Peter Mueller, Ph.D., Federal University of Sergipe (UFS), Brazil / Instituto Mises Brasil (IMB)

For any questions, please contact the assistant editor for this special edition, Fernando Monteiro D'Andrea, at dandrea@mises.com.br.

segunda-feira, 5 de outubro de 2015

In Brazil, Free-Market Ideas Rise as the Economy Falls - Antony P. Mueller (Mises Daily)

In Brazil, Free-Market Ideas Rise as the Economy Falls
Antony P. Mueller
Mises Daily, October 5, 2015
 
The Mises Institute spoke with Associated Scholar Antony Mueller last week about recent economic and ideological trends in Brazil. Prof. Mueller teaches economics at Federal University of Sergipe (UFS) in Brazil.


Mises Institute: For those of us not in Brazil, it is hard to interpret the commentary on Brazil’s economy right now. Brazil’s debt was recently reduced to junk status, and we can see that Brazil’s economy is not doing well. But how severe is the crisis?

Antony Mueller: Part of the explanation is that for a large part of the population and for the government itself, the crisis came as a shock. At first, the Brazilian government ignored the coming of the crisis and when it arrived, the government ignored its existence.

Imagine Brazil like a family with a lot of inherited wealth that spends as if there were no tomorrow. Yet someday this family wakes up to the fact that its wealth has been squandered and its financial accounts are in the red. The government did not recognize that the boom would be temporary. The Brazilian economy began to sputter as commodity prices fell and the demand from China decreased. Yet in order to adapt to the new situation and cut expenditures, the Brazilian government spent even more.

Incumbent President Dilma Rousseff from the Workers Party, which has been in power since 2003, won a second term in 2014 with a campaign that deceived the population about the true state of the economy. The government implemented a series of cheap financial tricks such as delaying the rise of the prices for fuel and electricity and of other items in the large list of administered prices.

After the election, hell broke loose and the true state of the economy became visible for the broad public. The popularity of the president began to fall to single-digit approval ratings. The crisis is serious in itself, yet its psychological impact becomes more severe because of the shock of disillusion. In part, this shock also applies to foreign observers and investors who bought into government propaganda or based their outlook on the projections of the International Monetary Fund whose prognosis in 2013 said that Brazil would maintain economic growth rates of at least over 4 percent for each of the years to come up to 2018.

MI: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is writing off Brazil as if it’s a total disaster area, and he quotes one observer who says “things will get much worse before they get better.” Is this true, and if so, what are the obstacles to improvement?


AM: Evans-Pritchard’s remarks reflect the consensus among foreign observers and there is indeed little doubt that the crisis will deteriorate before it gets better. Even worse, the recuperation could take much longer than is generally assumed. The reason for a pessimistic outlook comes from the fact that the crisis is not only economic, but also political in character. Not only members of the present government, but also figures of the opposition parties are under investigation about massive corruption linked to the major Brazilian oil company Petrobras. There is much frustration in the country because there is no promising alternative in sight.

MI: Assuming we are looking at real declines in standards of living, how long will it take the country to get back to where it was at the height of the boom?

AM: This is a difficult question for a specific answer. So let me answer in a more fundamental way. Brazil’s economic development has been on a roller coaster ride for centuries. Phases of extraordinary booms were followed by long periods of busts and stagnation.

In the second half of the twentieth century, the boom of the 1950s, with the promise that Brazil would achieve growth and development of “fifty years in five years” ended in economic disaster and the military dictatorship that lasted from 1964 to 1985, which in turn ended with Brazil’s catastrophic foreign debt crisis. It took a “lost decade” for the country to recuperate.

The 1990s saw a series of reforms that put the country back on the track. In 2003, when the newly elected president, Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva from the Workers Party took over the government, the economy was already on a growth path. Then came the commodity boom with a seemingly insatiable appetite for Brazilian natural and agricultural products. Yet, instead of using the good times that filled the coffers of the Brazilian treasury to carry out highly necessary reforms, the Labor government pursued a populist policy of generous social spending, particularly for the poor parts of the population.

Now, these achievements of reducing poverty and inequality have come under threat because of the lack of financial funds. This means that Brazil must face not only an economic and a political crisis, but also a social crisis. The confluence of such a triple crisis increases the risks that any one of them gets worse because each individual crisis affects negatively the other crises. The consequential chain from the economic to the political and from there to the social crisis then goes into reverse and the social crisis worsens the outlook to get out of the political and the economic crisis.

MI: Brazil was a big part of the BRICS effort to create a group of up-and-coming economies that could rival the big economies like the US and Germany. Is that idea totally dead, or is the demise of BRICS overstated?


AM: The BRICS never managed to operate as a coherent group. Now, that not only Brazil is in crisis, but also Russia, and that China is in troubled waters, the outlook for the BRICS as a group of playing a major role in global affairs has diminished even more.

It is similar with MERCOSUL, the common market project in South America. Instead of achieving free exchange, trade conflicts are on the rise and not a single supranational institution has become effective. From my observations of Latin America and of Brazil in particular, I conclude that there are still vast mental and ideological barriers in place that work against sustained prosperity. The ideological dominance of statism, socialism, and interventionism is present in every layer of the Brazilian society — not only in politics or academia, but also in the business community itself.

Bureaucracy is a nightmare without end. Taxation is high and brings little return. The public educational system is in shambles. The legal system is unable to cope with an enormous backlog of unresolved cases, while at the same time, judges and other legal authorities enjoy grandiose privileges. Salaries in the judiciary are astronomical compared to what the average person or the poorer parts of the Brazilian society earn.

The public sector in general is extremely inefficient and is an El Dorado of rent-seekers. I do not expect that any of these obstacles will be resolved in the coming years. I fear that it is not much different in some other BRICS countries. They are all stuck in the “middle income trap,” as they are apparently unable to change from a statist to a free market system. There are many vested interests in place, in both politics and in established business, preventing change from state capitalism to an entrepreneurial capitalism. Only based on a fundamental change of ideology in favor of markets and individual and entrepreneurial liberty, will countries like Brazil gain long-term prosperity. I would also say that the same holds for China and the other members of the BRICS and emerging markets in general.

MI: Ideologically, is there any hope of a shift in Brazilian ideology? Some in the US media have featured libertarian free market groups in Brazil and suggested there is a change going on. Do you see any of that?

AM: Well, there is hope, yet it is a long way down the road. The Brazilian libertarian movement is gaining strength, particularly among students and young people in general. In fact, the spread of libertarian ideas among young Brazilians is amazing. The Brazilian Mises Institute is overwhelmed by visits to its site and the Institute’s events are grandiose. There is much good will, high hopes, a lot of serious dedication and extreme diligence at work in the libertarian movement of Brazil. If this trend continues, the walls that surround the established ideology will finally crumble. Anybody with an alert mind must see that statism has failed; that the ideas of socialism and interventionism are sterile and that they produce mainly frustration, stagnation, and crises. The libertarian movement in Brazil is the new avant-garde; its members are the true “progressives.”

The modern electronic media help to accelerate their ascendancy to influence and recognition. The current crisis will be a further wake-up call for young people to recognize that it is their future which is at stake if Brazil should continue in its old ways. With ever more young people joining the libertarian movement, I am sure that sometime in the future a critical mass will be reached and things will change.

sexta-feira, 27 de março de 2015

O keynesianismo de botequim do Brasil - Antony P. Mueller (Mises)

Os companheiros praticam no Brasil aquilo que eu chamo de keynesianismo de botequim.  Este autor o chama de vulgar. Em qualquer hipótese, somos todos vítimas de coisa que vem destruindo a economia brasileira.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brazil: Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism
Antony P. Mueller
Mises Daily, MARCH 27, 2015

All Keynesian roads lead to stagflation. That was the case in Europe and in the United States in the 1970s when both stagnation and inflation hit the economies at the same time. Currently, this is the case in Brazil.

Since coming into power in 2003, the Brazilian labor government has religiously implemented the economic policy doctrine of growth by spending. Now, the country has fallen into stagnation with a recession looming while inflation is on the rise. All economic indicators flash red lights: from economic growth to inflation and the exchange rate, from productivity to investment and industrial production.

Booms and Bubbles, Brazilian Style
Once again, Keynesian policies have led to stagflation. Reality has finally set in. The illusion of easy wealth is shattered. The Keynesian wonder weapon has become impotent. The economic policy teams at the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank have no notion what to do now. After all, they know of no other economic policy doctrine than to stimulate the economy by spending ever more. Yet with the government’s coffers empty and inflation high and rising, the policy tools of deficit spending and monetary expansion have run out of fuel. Favorable external conditions such as the China boom and high demand for commodities had benefited the Brazilian economy during the presidency of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. These external factors together with massive internal stimuli accelerated economic growth. With the end of the commodities boom and the slowing of economic growth in China, the external environment factors no longer helped when at the same time internal consumption hit the wall, as consumers had to scale back along with the government as the debt burden approaches its limit.

In early 2015, it became obvious that the country has lived in an illusionary world under the Labor Party over the past twelve years. Now it seems like a joke that President Lula once announced that Brazil’s economy was about to overtake that of the United Kingdom and from then on move upward on the ladder of the large economies. Yet when it was announced in 2007 that Brazil was to host the Soccer World Championship in 2014 and when in 2009 the Olympic Committee selected Rio de Janeiro for the Olympic Games in 2016, it seemed that the much-wanted international recognition of the president’s achievements had arrived. The jubilation at home was fully matched by the exuberance abroad about how Lula would lead Brazil into the twenty-first century.

Just as much as many Brazilians did not want to recognize, foreign observers, too, shut their eyes to the fact that the Brazilian Labor Party has been practicing one of the crudest forms of Keynesianism. The Brazilian kind of Keynesianism is deeply mixed with the Marxism of Michal Kalecki. In Europe and the United States remnants of sound economics survived at the onset of the “new economics,” and later on partially recovered classical and neoclassical principles. In Brazil there has been an almost complete victory of “Kaleckian Keynesianism” with most other types of macroeconomics cast aside.

Can the Government Turn Stones into Bread?
Even today, the Polish economist Kalecki is still held in high esteem at some of the most prominent Brazilian universities. The version of “Keynesianism” that he developed in the 1930s has become the leading paradigm for economic policymaking albeit this type of macroeconomics lacks any micro-foundation and is largely void of realistic content. The Kaleckian version of Keynesianism takes the macroeconomic symbols for real and by moving them around according to the basic rules of algebra, the model finally is brought to the conclusion that “workers spend what they earn,” while “capitalists earn what they spend” (as this theory was once summarized by Kaldor).

Kalecki and his Marxist followers consequently decided that when the state assumes the capitalist function, government could spend the country to wealth while workers would get their fair share as consumers. Even more so than Keynes, Kalecki’s gospel preached that its believers could turn stones into bread. Government spending for whatever purpose combined with mass consumption promised a most pleasurable way to prosperity. This promise has been the economic policy principle of the Brazilian Labor Party government over the past twelve years.

During much of the two presidential periods of da Silva from the beginning of 2003 to the end of 2010, the Kaleckian-Keynesian recipe seemed to work. The Brazilian government under the former trade union leader spent, the consumers consumed, and the economy grew. All the while, price inflation remained subdued and the unemployment rate fell. No wonder that President Lula enjoyed immense popularity during his two terms and that Lula’s Labor Party would remain in power when his handpicked successor won the elections for presidency in 2010 and in 2014.

Dilma Rousseff, however, a politician by trade and former urban guerilla fighter, had a hard time winning the elections. When running for her second mandate, dark clouds began to overshadow the still blatant optimism of the ruling party. In 2011, the economic growth rate began to fall. The government first brushed it away as a temporary dip, yet when the rate continued to decline even more in 2012, the government began to panic. With the election coming up in 2014, the government did what the Kaleckian-Keynesian recipe prescribes and accelerated even more its expansive policies. This may have won the election for her, but the price to pay came in high later on.

Disillusion Sets In
Now, in early 2015, disillusion has fully set in. People feel cheated by the false optimism of the government. The corruption scandal of the Brazilian oil company Petrobras together with the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions drove over a million of Brazilians to the streets on March 15 in protest against the government.

What many of the protesters fail to see, however, is that Brazil needs more than just a change of government. The country needs a change of mind. In order to get on to the path of prosperity, Brazil has to discard its prevalent economic ideology. Brazil has to get rid of its tradition of profligate government spending and easy money, Marxist-inspired state involvement in the economy, and the protectionism that had come with the adoption of Cepalism (the economic policy concept of the Economic Commission of Latin America). Not special circumstances lie at the heart of the current malaise, but wrong ideas about economic policy.

Brazil needs a huge dosage of economic liberalization to find its way out of the current crisis. Less state intervention and much more freedom of doing business must be the first steps. For this to happen a change of mind is needed. Brazilians must open up to an alternative beyond state capitalism. Brazil must embrace laissez-faire in order to prosper.

This task is tremendous and not much different from earlier elections, almost all parties currently represented in the Brazilian Congress belong to the left and the extreme left. There is neither a truly conservative nor an authentic pro-market political party. This situation is more than peculiar because, as surveys consistently show, most of the Brazilians locate their political orientation at the center-right and in favor of free markets.

Marxism Still Dominates the Universities
The reason for this discrepancy lies in the fact that the left dominates higher education, particularly in the social sciences, economics, and law. It is from this group that most political activists come. When the military dictatorship ended in 1984, the university system fell under almost complete control by leftists of all kinds. This way, academic life is ideologically very different from the rest of the Brazilian society where common sense still has prevailed.

Fortunately, intellectual evolution is no longer largely dependent on academia. While the Kaleckian brand of Keynesianism and Marxism still dominates the universities, a strong libertarian movement is on the rise spearheaded by the Brazilian Mises Institute. Young people in particular flock to this site like the proverbial wanderer in the desert in the search for water. In the past, changes of mentality took decades and even centuries in order to unfold.

Nowadays, with the internet, ideas have a market place of their own with free access for all. It should be easy for the Brazilians to learn that it is not enough to be fed up with the present government, but it is high time to transform the country’s state capitalism into a free market system in order to prosper.