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Mostrando postagens com marcador Nadin Brzezinski. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Nadin Brzezinski. Mostrar todas as postagens

domingo, 2 de julho de 2023

Crônica de uma Catástrofe Anunciada: russos preparam a implosão da central nuclear de Zaporozhye - Nadin Brzezinski (Medium)

 Will the Russians Blow up the Zaporizhia NPP?

Nadin Brzezinski
5 min read·21 hours ago

Russia has a pattern. It’s an old pattern. It’s one involving the destruction that they can’t have. They have taken pavement from roads on their way out, for example. They have destroyed cities to capture them. The jokes around washers and toilets are long in the tooth at this point. Now they control the sixth largest nuclear plant in Europe, and there is noise they are leaving.

There is also noise. They intend to do great damage on the way out. One of those signals is, as always, accusing the other of what they intend to do. The screen cap below is from TASS, hardly alone. They have also distributed a letter in the United Nations a priori denying responsibility.

The old tool of propaganda is accusing others. Germans perfected this during the Second World War, but Russians were also experts. This is strategic disinformation.

But there is more:

Against the background of the information transmitted the other day by GUR, which showed that the Russians would intend to cause an accident at the Zaporozhye power plant, the same Ukrainian intelligence service today publishes an information on the Telegram channel, according to which 
“ According to the latest data, the occupation contingent is leaving gradually the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant”.

The intelligence agency said among the first to leave the station were three Rosatom employees, who managed the Russians’ actions. Ukrainian employees who signed a contract with Rosatom were also advised to evacuate.

According to the instructions received, they should leave by July 5th.

Also, the number of military patrols is gradually decreasing on the actual territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and in the plant’s satellite city — Energodar. 
Staff remaining at the station were instructed to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies”.

On June 25, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirilo Budanov — “The Man Who Never Smiles” — , said that the Russians had completed preparations for a possible terrorist attack on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

Explosive devices were placed near four of the Plant’s six units. IAEA Director General Raphael Grossi had previously stated that the undermining of the Kahovka Dam threatens the operation of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. According to him, there is a risk of running out of the necessary level of water to cool the reactors in a few weeks. On June 15, he said the situation in Zaporozhye was “serious” but he was trying to “stabilize” it.

Energoatom reported that despite the Russians blowing up the Kahovka Dam, the situation at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant remains under control and there is enough water in the cooling pool to meet the plant’s needs.

From my point of view, any act of sabotage — blowing up, simulating overvoltage, or any other similar act, is still unlikely to ‘0’ considering the catastrophic consequences, both for Europe and, to the same extent, for Russia. Also, a significant part of N-E Turkey would be affected.

The main danger, but which is currently under control, is the provision of the water needed to cool the 6 nuclear reactors.

Now these are not pile reactors. They do run hotter than Western reactors. So perhaps we will have less of an issue than Chornobyl. There is some technical data as to why it will not be that bad. Also, the types of man-made accidents we might expect. I found this Twitter thread useful. However, western reactors did suffer explosions a decade ago.

Now Ukrainians have been screaming to the four winds, to anybody who will listen, that Russia will do this. As of this morning, they shared this as well:

Russia has a plan to remotely detonate the ZNPP when the aggressor’s troops hand over control of the nuclear plant to the IAEA and Ukraine, — Zelensky

To me, the signal that they intend to do it is not the withdrawal of military personnel. Sure, that would be good. The withdrawal of technical personnel needed to deal with an accident is. For somebody screaming the other side is going to do it, why take away the technicians needed to control such a provocation? At least now we know Russians value some lives, maybe.

Yes, at this point, I am way cynical.

Now there are going to be consequences. Perhaps Russia is indeed looking forwards to, for real, losing the war to NATO because losing to Ukraine is short-circuiting their imperial brain. Crests (using the less objectionable insult) are not supposed to be able to fight Russia and defeat Russia. Now, losing to NATO is far more acceptable.

This is why they captured a U.S. General; they did not. Why did they claim there were two NATO generals and troops at Kramatorsk. No, there were not why they hit a command post in Lviv where ten allied generals died; no, that never happened.

But to the Russian people, this is great propaganda. See, we are fighting the collective West! We even have audio on Telegram of the International Legion, who, of course, speak a panoply of languages, including, shockingly, I know, English and Polish, two favorites for the propagandist. They even showed off a few British citizens captured at Mariupol who served with the regular Ukrainian Marines. They were not even in the Legion. Russians intended to try them and execute them as a show trial. In the end, they were exchanged.

We have been at the most dangerous point of this war for at least two weeks. The drama inside Russia is also raising the stakes. This is why. This is one of a few reports from Ukrainian successes at the front:

Counterattack | The 47th OMBr “Magura” breaks through the defense of the Russians in the south

47 OMBr “Magura” breaks through the defense of the Russians in the south. This video concentrates the events of two days of assault. Two companies of Russians fled from their positions.

https://youtu.be/bk5OG6JYmfI

https://t.me/censor_net/32470

Ukrainians are starting to push through defense lines. The video is not that gory, but one section shows the dense minefields, removed by sappers, to the side. They are going slowly, purposefully, and methodically. This saves lives in the end.

So returning to the plant. I concluded a while ago that they would damage that plant on the way out. How serious is a damn good question? My mind firmed this when they blew the Kharkhova dam. This is based on how the Russian mind works. Yes, I will say it right now. I prefer to eat a large crow pie with them fixings on the side. If I am wrong, please tell me this.

We will likely add to the rapidly growing collection of war crimes. This will be in the category of crime against humanity worst case. Let’s hope it’s the best case—either a small incident or none at all.

I indeed look forward to a full pie, not just a slice. Let’s hope I get that.


sábado, 29 de abril de 2023

Kremlin Instability - Nadin Brzezinski (Medium)

Pressões dos ultranacionalistas russos para o aumento da repressão aos dissidentes, e adoção de práticas stalinistas do passado totalitário, são os assuntos tratados nesta matéria, que também se detém sobre eventual doença do tirano de Moscou e do presidente atual da Turquia. Ou seja, mais instabilidade não apenas no Kremlin, mas na região como um todo.

Russian Editorial Cartoon via Telegram

This one crossed this morning from the Institute for the Study of War. They have also noticed the same thing I have. There are signals that instability in the Kremlin is increasing. I will quote them directly instead of the noise via Ukrainian channels because it’s significant. It also matches my observations:

Russian ultranationalists are continuing to advocate for the Kremlin to adopt Stalinist repression measures. Russian State Duma Parliamentarian Andrey Gurulyov — a prominent Russian ultranationalist figure within the ruling United Russia Party — stated that Russia needs to reintroduce the concept of the “enemy of the people.”[10] This concept designated all the late Soviet leader Joseph Stalin’s opposition figures as the enemies of society. Gurulyov frequently shares extreme opinions on Russian state television but the rhetoric among the ultranationalists is increasingly emphasizing the need for the targeting and elimination of Russia’s internal enemies. Former Russian officer Igor Girkin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin often echo similar calls to prosecute Russian officials who are hoping to end the war via negotiations with the West. Such attitudes indicate that the ultranationalist communities are expecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand repression and fully commit to the war.

The Kremlin continues to avoid adopting overtly repressive measures likely out of concern for the stability of Putin’s regime. The Russian government withdrew a bill from the Russian State Duma that would have increased taxes from 13 to 30 percent for Russians who have fled the country.[11] Russian ultranationalists have repeatedly called on the Kremlin to nationalize property belonging to Russians who had “betrayed” the country by fleeing, but the Kremlin appears to remain hesitant to introduce such unpopular measures. Unnamed sources told Russian independent outlet Verska that the Russian presidential administration does not support the return of capital punishments in Russia — another issue that recently reemerged in Russian policy discussions.[12] The Kremlin could use the threat of the death penalty to scare Russians into supporting the war effort (or remaining passively resistant to it), but Putin likely remains hesitant to destroy his image as a diplomatic and tolerant tsar. ISW previously assessed that Putin relies on controlling the information space to safeguard his regime much more than the kind of massive oppression apparatus of the Soviet Union and that Putin has never rebuilt an internal repression apparatus equivalent to the KGB, Interior Ministry forces, and the Red Army.[13]

Realize we are all watching the same channels, I suspect. So we see the same demands for SMERSH and other repressive techniques. This also points to the next point. We seem to be shaping operations before the offensive begins. We have explosions inside Crimea and Russia, near the border regions.

One of our Z Channels is nice to tell us this…and no, there is no precise confirmation of this, except the explosions at this point, for example, on Rostov-on-Don, and Nikolaev on the Ukrainian side.

There is an unprecedented movement on the border in Belgorod and Kursk regions. Drones fly swarms in both directions. The equipment is here, they drag everything and everything. Both ours and the enemy. The Nazis pulled technical means to the border. Our air reconnaissance is being tinguished. We lost a few Maviks this week. But we also do not lag behind, today not without a catch — the Khokhla has minus two drones. Active movement and arrival of new equipment were noticed in Zolochev.

We are seeing those over other channels.

Now on a larger piece, apparently, Vladimir Putin was driven to the Kremlin overnight. There is a lot of speculation as to why. So here are two versions. I will add a third; the front is starting to heat up with shaping operations:

Putin’s cortege raced unscheduledly in the evening towards the Kremlin. The media are building versions of the president’s emergency visit to the workplace: from Erdogan’s disease to confiscation of assets in Poland.

There were rumors that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had a heart attack. This is now getting disputed. But what is true is that meetings were indeed canceled.

And a change at the top of the leadership in Turkey will prove democracy works. This is dangerous for Russia. While many have given up on Turkish democracy, perhaps this is too early.

Now, this brings me to General SVR. This is why I suspect they are putting out code for somebody. No, nobody survives pancreatic cancer this long. So if this is what ails Putin, he must donate his body to science.

But I digress.

Every time things go badly for the regime, his cancer issues…this week colon, last week pancreas…whatever, it’s oncology, get worse. His case gets nearly out of control, and boy doubles start to become a thing. The medicine starts to work…being a former medic, hardly a specialist; this smells of creative writing.

Are there doubles? Probably. It’s not unusual for authoritarian leaders to have some. But the story that he is dying from a fast-killing cancer is back again. At this point, I tend to interpret that part of the story as code to the regime's stability. This is one reason I read the channel.

And occasionally, they put out something that does turn out to be right. Should you rely on them, for Putin will die tomorrow? Nope. And if you do, the British Press adds nice embellishments to these stories. Assume there is no cancer. Hell, there is not a cold. What there is, well, paranoia. And as we start to get closer to the end of this, if the Ukrainian offensive goes well, here is why this started, according to MO:

Last drops for Putin. Six personal motives of the dictator that led to the war with Ukraine

Vladimir Putin decided to start a war a year before the invasion, in February-March 2021, Nyurstka found out after talking with sources in the Russian and Ukrainian authorities. Moreover, he was guided, among other things, by personal motives — resentment and the desire to take revenge. Sources told what exactly overwhelmed his “cup of patience”:

💧2004 Orange Revolution
Putin’s attitude towards Ukraine deteriorated along with relations with the West. A major blow to Putin was the 2004 Orange Revolution, which he sees as the work of the United States.
💧Dangerous Philosophy
In 2012, Putin began to spend a lot of time reading ultra-conservative books. His “mentor” was the White Guard philosopher Ivan Ilyin. Modern nationalists also began to influence Putin more.
💧Maidan and the flight of Yanukovych
“Putin said: guys, this is our last chance, there won’t be another chance like this, I take responsibility,” said a close acquaintance of the decision of the owner of the Kremlin to seize Crimea.
💧The impracticability of the Minsk agreements
Putin seriously hoped to outwit the Ukrainian authorities with the help of the Minsk agreements and personally participated in their writing. But he failed in the end to push through either Poroshenko or Zelensky.
💧The closure of Medvedchuk’s media assets
The fact that the Ukrainian authorities began to “nightmare” Putin’s godfather Medvedchuk was the last straw in Putin’s decision to prepare for a military operation.
💧Quarantine in the bunker
During a long isolation, Yuriy Kovalchuk gained a particularly strong influence on his friend, convincing the president that power in Kyiv could be changed quickly and painlessly.

Putin is a typical psychopath, and losing control of himself, says American neuroscientist, professor at the University of California James Fallon. “Putin’s facial expressions also speak of Putin’s failures,” the American professor notes. He became more like a wild animal in a cage. But that only made him more dangerous.”

Some we have heard before, which brings me back to Turkey. If Erdogan loses, this will not be received well by Moscow. It will be another Orange revolution of sorts. I see the influence of the ultranationalist right as well. It is evident in how Putin speaks.

This war is making the regime unstable. A defeat could bring the country to the conditions of the early 1990s. The vertical of power, which also relies on patronage networks, will suffer. It could also go away. The pressure towards disolución is increasing.


sexta-feira, 13 de janeiro de 2023

Consequences of the defeat of Russia - Nadin Brzezinski (Medium)

Consequences of the defeat of Russia

 Nadin Brzezinski

The United States delivered 75 tons of food left over from the Persian Gulf war to the hungry Moscow region today, part of a relief effort that American and Russian officials said they expected to continue through the winter.

The food, flown in through the snow on two military cargo planes from a supply base in Pisa, Italy, was to go directly to hospitals, orphanages and homes for the elderly.

The delivery from Sheremetyevo Airport in Russian trucks was observed by Americans, including embassy dependents, and by Russian and Red Cross officials, to make sure that its contents were not stolen and put on sale by Russian black marketeers.

The flights had a paradoxical quality: The American military, after decades of cold war training to fight a hot war against the Soviet Union, arrived here to help this country feed its hungry. An Echo of World War II

While there’s no way to know what Xi is thinking, China’s long-established pattern of behavior suggests that, as Russia redirects border security units to a grinding conflict in Ukraine, it is worth considering if China might be mulling expansionist contingencies to the north, along the sprawling and sparsely held 2,615 mile Russian frontier.

On the other hand, on both the Indian frontier and in the South China Sea, China moved into sovereign territory with little advance notice. In both cases, China’s expansionism was opportunistic, taking advantage of an administrative or military vacuum to suddenly “change the facts on the ground.”