A Europa do Iluminismo, dos Direitos Humanos, da Democracia está renascendo a partir da terrivel guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia; os dois imperadores coligados na opressão serão derrotados em suas pretensões de superpotências dominantes. Agora é o momento de deitar abaixo o diktat dos autoritários e reconstruir a soberania duramente conquistada na diplomacia e no terreno.
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BREAKING: EUROPE JUST BOXED TRUMP & PUTIN IN
The Five-Nation Firewall, the Coalition of the Willing, and Why the Russia “Upper Hand” Myth Just Died Screaming
Dean Blundell
Dec 09, 2025
For months, Donald Trump has swaggered around pretending he and Vladimir Putin have already “won” Ukraine.
He told Axios Russia has “the upper hand.”
He claims Zelenskyy is “finished.”
He insists Europe is “weak” and ready to fold.
And in the most Trumpian of delusions, he believes the United States military — the same military Putin spent years undermining and insulting — would somehow ride into battle with Russia, against NATO allies, to enforce whatever cartoon peace deal he and Putin cough up behind closed doors. You power this Substack, and we couldn’t be more grateful. Take advantage of our “December Special.” Consider becoming a free or paid subscriber and get unlimited access to ALL of our content for 25% off an annual subscription and lock that discount in for life.
Then reality showed up.
Because this week, five European powers + a 26-nation “coalition of the willing” just formed a geopolitical chokehold on Trump’s Kremlin cosplay — and they did it in the open, with Ukraine standing right next to them.
The message?
“We’re not bending. We’re not ceding territory. And we’re not letting Putin — or Trump — profit from war.”
This wasn’t a symbolic gesture.
This was Europe telling the U.S. President:
“We know who you work for. And we’re not playing your game.”
Let’s break down how we got here.
The “Five” Who Are Actually Twenty-Six — Europe’s Firewall Against Trump/Putin Inc.
While Trump was screaming into the Axios void about Russia’s dominance, something else was happening:
Europe stopped waiting for America.
The core five:
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
🇫🇷 France
🇩🇪 Germany
🇸🇪 Sweden
🇵🇱 Poland
These are the political, military, and economic anchors of the continent. But the “five” quickly expanded as Europe realized something chilling:
If Trump is about to hand Putin half of Ukraine, Europe needs to build a wall — fast.
So they did.
Twenty-six nations have now pledged troops, equipment, or strategic support to guarantee Ukraine’s borders even after a peace deal.
This is not NATO.
This is not the EU.
This is something new:
A Europe-led war-deterrence force designed explicitly to block Trump from selling Ukraine to Putin.
The U.S. is no longer the centre of gravity in Europe’s security thinking.
That’s the story Trump’s fanboys won’t tell you.
The West Point History Professor
TRUMP’S CONFRONTATION WITH EUROPE OVER UKRAINE BACKFIRES; TRUMP’S SCHEME FOR RUSSIAN PROFITS BETRAYED BY THE AMERICAN MILITARY; FORETELLING A MOMENTOUS CLASH ON THE EVE OF THE 2026 ELECTION
https://thewestpointhistoryprofessor.substack.com/p/trumps-confrontation-with-europe?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web
The Earth-Shaking London Declaration: Europe’s Starmer/Macron/Merz Triple-Punch
In London, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy stood beside the leaders of the UK, France, and Germany — and they basically set Trump’s “peace plan” on fire in real time.
The London Declaration included:
✔ No territorial concessions. At all.
✔ Frozen Russian assets will be turned into Ukrainian reconstruction money.
✔ Russia will not profit from its invasion — ever.
✔ Europe will enforce any peace agreement militarily if necessary.
✔ Ukraine’s security will not depend on the White House.
That last one?
That’s the kill shot.
Europe just divorced itself from Trump’s foreign policy chaos — and formed a brand-new, self-contained power bloc capable of telling both Trump and Putin:
“Your move, boys. But understand: you’re not going to like your options.”
Trump Says Russia Has the “Upper Hand.” Reality Disagrees. Violently.
Trump is peddling the Kremlin’s favourite bedtime story:
Russia is winning, Ukraine is weak, the war is basically over, blah blah blah.
Let’s shred that.
1. Ukraine just forced Russia into the most expensive stalemate in modern military history.
Every day Ukraine holds territory, Russia burns:
– ammunition
– armour
– manpower
– drones
– oil revenue
– diplomatic capital
And the bill is landing directly on Putin’s desk.
2. Russia’s economy is standing on the edge of an unforgiving cliff.
Sanctions didn’t break Russia, but attrition is about to.
Energy exports are decoupling.
Foreign reserves are frozen.
GDP growth is fake, propped up by wartime distortion.
Military recruitment is cannibalizing Russia’s workforce.
Russia is pretending it’s fine the way a wounded bear pretends it meant to fall off a cliff.
3. Ukraine, meanwhile, keeps eating Moscow’s lunch.
They’re outgunned.
They’re outnumbered.
But they are not outmatched.
Russia expected Ukraine to roll over in six days.
It’s been almost four years, and Ukraine’s still punching holes in Russian infrastructure, supply lines, and prestige.
If this is “the upper hand,” then Donald Trump’s cognitive test results were also “perfect.”
Putin Is Now Threatening Europe Because He Has No Good Moves Left
With Europe escalating support and Trump desperately trying to sell a fantasy peace plan Moscow likes, Putin resorted to his old greatest hits:
“Russia is prepared for war with the rest of Europe.”
No.
It isn’t.
Putin’s threats are a tell — a sign of weakness, not strength.
If Russia could fight Europe, it wouldn’t need to draft 55-year-old men
…or import artillery shells from North Korea
…or rely on Iranian drones
…or raid washing machines for microchips
…or beg Trump to deliver political victories it cannot win on the battlefield.
Russia isn’t acting powerful.
Russia is acting cornered.
Europe Is Forcing Trump and Putin Into an Unwinnable Box
This is the part that should scare the hell out of both men.
Europe has boxed in every possible outcome:
Scenario 1:
Trump forces a Russia-favourable peace deal.
Europe refuses to honour it, refuses territorial concessions, and immediately deploys a security force to stop Russia from benefiting.
Resultado: Putin gains nothing. Trump looks weak.
Scenario 2:
Trump tries to force the U.S. military to cooperate with Russia against NATO allies.
The Pentagon will laugh in his face.
U.S. generals already made clear they do not wage war on democracies to help a hostile foreign power redraw borders.
Resultado:
Trump is isolated. Putin loses his American shield.
Scenario 3:
Russia tries to push deeper into Europe after a U.S.-Russia ceasefire.
The Coalition of the Willing steps in.
Europe isn’t waiting for Article 5 anymore — they built a parallel system.
Resultado:
Putin faces 26 countries instead of one.
Scenario 4:
Russia keeps fighting Ukraine.
Europe keeps redirecting Russian frozen assets into Ukrainian weapons, ammunition, manufacturing, and reconstruction.
Resultado:
Putin fights until his economy snaps.
Scenario 5:
Trump withdraws U.S. support entirely.
Europe replaces it.
Resultado:
Ukraine survives anyway — and Russia still loses.
Every road Putin and Trump want to take is blocked by European concrete.
And Here’s the Cherry on Top: Europe Is About to Make Putin Pay for His Own Defeat
This is the innovation nobody saw coming:
Frozen Russian state assets — roughly $300 billion — are about to become Ukraine’s rebuilding fund.
Let that sink in.
The money Russia thought would bankroll its imperial comeback will instead be used to:
– rebuild Ukrainian cities
– rearm Ukraine’s military
– support postwar industry
– lock Ukraine into the European economy
This is the geopolitical equivalent of Russia paying reparations before the war is even over.
Putin didn’t just lose territory.
He lost leverage.
And Trump can’t help him get it back.
Why the U.S. Military Will Not Fight With Russia — Even If Trump Orders It
Let’s get one thing perfectly clear:
There is no universe where U.S. troops fight alongside Russia against France, Germany, the UK, Sweden, Poland, or Ukraine.
Not legally.
Not strategically.
Not morally.
Not politically.
Not logistically.
Not culturally.
Not ever.
The rank and file won’t do it.
The Joint Chiefs won’t do it.
Congress won’t authorize it.
NATO wouldn’t allow it.
America’s allies wouldn’t tolerate it.
Even suggesting it is a constitutional crisis dressed up as a foreign policy proposal.
If Trump tries it, he becomes a rogue actor — not a commander-in-chief.
And Putin loses his last desperate lifeline.
The Bottom Line: Trump and Putin Just Lost Control of the Board
Trump wanted to make Ukraine the bargaining chip.
Europe made it the line in the sand.
Putin wanted war profits.
Europe turned his treasury into Ukraine’s bank account.
Trump wanted to frame Russia as the inevitable victor.
Europe publicly shredded the narrative and backed it with troops.
Putin wanted Europe fractured.
Europe formed the largest non-NATO military coalition since WWII.
Trump wanted America to decide Ukraine’s future.
Europe just stole that power out of his hands.
This is not the story Trump and Putin wanted to write.
This is the story Europe forced them into.
And unless Trump plans to declare war on America’s allies for Russia — a move the military would rather mutiny than execute — both men have reached the same uncomfortable conclusion:
They are deeply, profoundly, historically screwed.
Europe is done being polite.
Ukraine isn’t backing down.
And Russia is running out of time, money, men, and options.
The war isn’t ending on Trump’s terms.
It’s ending on Ukraine’s — backed by a Europe that finally understands the stakes.
This is what happens when democracy stops negotiating with bullies and starts acting like it intends to win.
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