Pois é, no governo do Nunca Antes, o Brasil foi à guerra novamente.
Mas o objetivo era apenas uma aposentadoria milionária para o chefe da quadrilha...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: G3* - BRAZIL/UK/FRANCE/ITALY/MIL - UK wants to sell Brazil 11 naval vessels, but is a late starter behind France and Italy
Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT
| Email-ID | 1803057 |
|---|---|
| Date | 1970-01-01 01:00:00 |
| From | marko.papic@stratfor.com |
| To | analysts@stratfor.com |
Re: G3* - BRAZIL/UK/FRANCE/ITALY/MIL - UK wants to sell Brazil 11
naval vessels, but is a late starter behind France and Italy
Speaking of cutters, the plan for frigates does also include a plan to
purchase some coast guard vessels, so they're not just blowing cash on
golden, diamond encrusted, spinning rims.
Ultimately, everyone is really happy that Brazil is blowing its cash.
Because between India, Saudi Arabia and Brazil, the West's military
industries are going to have a decent time during the recession.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Peter Zeihan" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
To: analysts@stratfor.com
Sent: Wednesday, October 13, 2010 8:22:22 AM
Subject: Re: G3* - BRAZIL/UK/FRANCE/ITALY/MIL - UK wants to sell Brazil
11 naval vessels, but is a late starter behind France and
Italy
lula slobbers over everyone - its part of his charm - seriously weird
dude, but i love him as much as everyone else does =D
agreed that jets are the area where they have more expertise than any
other locals, but there are massive differences between civilian and mil
jets -- its a basis to start, but not a great one
frigates: logical place to begin in building a navy, but cutters would be
even better (they need cutters for coast guard more than frigates for
blowing up dolphins, which are the only potential hostile things in
brazillian waters)
subs: that's 'cause there isn't anything there -- i love the official
justification of 'its to protect the oil fields' -- from what? a giant
underwater alien who is going to scoop them up with a giant melon baller
and move them to madagascar?
On 10/13/2010 8:13 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
Well jet technology will likely build nicely on to their current
civilian air transportation knowledge. So I think that makes sense, even
though you have probably the strongest point regarding utility of jets
(really, for ANYONE in Latin America save probably poor Chile).
As for Frigates, I'm guessing Brazilians could always use a better
understanding of how to build ships. Especially as they begin to explore
more and more their Atlantic coast.
Submarines? Ha... got nothing. Unless it was a move to set up the
relationship with France so that you get tech transfer on other weapons.
Remember how Sarko and Lula were slobbering over one another over this.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Peter Zeihan" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
To: analysts@stratfor.com
Sent: Wednesday, October 13, 2010 8:06:28 AM
Subject: Re: G3* - BRAZIL/UK/FRANCE/ITALY/MIL - UK wants to sell Brazil
11 naval vessels, but is a late starter behind France and
Italy
deal
btw -- i broadly agree with the other thread too, that some of the
specific sales offers would produce mil tech to brazil
just because its a shiny toy doens't mean that you shouldn't learn how
to make it yourself
of course if they buy things that are too advanced that will do them no
good -- you cant reverse engineer things that are too much more
sophisticated that you yourself can make and at this point the
Brazilians don't know how to make too much
On 10/13/2010 8:02 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
$200 if it's in the title?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Peter Zeihan" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
To: analysts@stratfor.com
Sent: Wednesday, October 13, 2010 7:55:16 AM
Subject: Re: G3* - BRAZIL/UK/FRANCE/ITALY/MIL - UK wants to sell
Brazil 11 naval vessels, but is a late starter behind
France and Italy
$20 if you can get that analogy onto the site
a couple things in mind when evaluating mil sales to brazil
1) they're the new kid on the block (or new girl in school) as regards
having money -- everyone is talking about brazil having lots of cash,
but that is a very new development Oil? Investments because of oil
coming in? -- brazils growth rate during the 90s averaged only about
2%, it was even under population growth for a few years, so they
didn't start having extra money until very recently
2) they don't know jack about weapons systems -- their last war was
over a century ago, theyv'e never had a modern military, aside from
one piece of aerospace Well and that piece has concentrated almost
purely on domestic transportation, due to the fact their country is
enormous, it's an infrastructural thing they don't have a defense
industry, there are no likely wars in their future and their military
is used to being bought off with toys -- so here they are shopping for
toys that they don't know how to use Well, they're planning to learn
how to use them, that is the point.
if you're a foreign defense establishment its the perfect mix: they
have cash and no experience, so sell em something shiny and expensive
-- especially if they don't need it
brazil doesn't need subs (but they're buying some), they don't need
jets and certainly not air superiority jets (but they're buying some)
-- what they really do need are long range cargo helicopters and lots
of special forces training so that they can actually enforce their
writ on their jungle borders
I think you make good points, but are also being too harsh. The
countries around Brazil -- particularly Chile and Venezuela -- do have
superiority jets. Furthermore, Brazilians have a ton of oil coming out
in the Atlantic and they are paranoid. Is that a poor excuse? Sure,
but it's one that the Military is using to buy the new toys. And while
you may be right that these are shiny toys they don't need, they are
getting FULL technology transfers. And you are always talking about
how military technology has so many cross over purposes. Our whole
analysis of how Poland becomes the next South Korea is based on this
assumption. So hey, those French jets and UK frigates come with FULL
technology transfers. Maybe Brazil is the one swindling the West --
which is how I see it -- because they are pretending to be buying
useless shiny toys, which is why everyone is willing to sell it to
them, but in reality they are buying technology. And furthermore,
everyone is desperate to buy because of the recession.
So yes, you make a valid point about subs, not so much frigates and
patrol boats, and largely the point on jets is good (although you
can't just ignore the Sukhoys of Venezuela and F-16s of Chile). BUT,
the Brazilians are doing this for tech in my opinion, not necessarily
defense. So I don't think they are so idiotic.
On 10/13/2010 7:24 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
Does anyone else feel like Brazil is the hot new girl in 11th grade
surrounded by guys in the cafeteria? She just moved in from
California and everyone is hitting on her. And she is of course
milking it by just being "friends" with all of them. Too early for
that analogy?
Look at "Old Europe" and the Brits trying to sell Brazil everything
from submarines, jets to now patrol vessels and frigates. You'd
think there was nobody else buying military equipment in the world.
But the Brazilians are milking it, angling for better deals. I mean
the jet sale has again been delayed. And now the Brazilians are
playing hard to get on the vessel purchase, forcing the Brits to
pull out the "joint-development" card.
BAE believes it can offer the Brazilians something its European
rivals can't match: a seat at the table in the design and
development of a new frigate destined for the Royal Navy and
possibly other navies. a**Our proposals include an invitation to
become an international partner in our new Global Combat Ship
program,a** the export version of the Type 26 frigate, said Dean
McCumiskey, BAE managing director for the region.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Antonia Colibasanu" <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
To: "alerts" <alerts@stratfor.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 13, 2010 7:14:24 AM
Subject: G3* - BRAZIL/UK/FRANCE/ITALY/MIL - UK wants to sell Brazil
11 naval vessels, but is a late starter behind France and
Italy
not sure why article title says 'bases' when it's about vessels.
Looks like a typo
UK wants to sell Brazil 11 naval bases, but is a late starter
behind France and Italy
October 12th 2010 - 19:29 UTC -
http://en.mercopress.com/2010/10/12/uk-wants-to-sell-brazil-11-naval-bases-but-is-a-late-starter-behind-france-and-italy
Britain is ramping up efforts to sell about 11 new naval vessels,
including frigates, to the Brazilian Navy in a bid to catch up
with marketing efforts launched by France and Italy, according to
a recent article from DefenseNews.
Brazil is mulling the purchase of five offshore patrol vessels
(OPVs), one logistics vessel and five frigates to renew its fleet.
France and, most notably, Italy have already been active this year
in pushing their platforms on the South American country, with
both proposing the FREMM frigate now being built for the French
and Italian navies by home players DCNS and Fincantieri,
respectively.
In a busy year for Brazilian ports, the French Horizon air defence
destroyer Chevalier Paul visited this summer, following in the
wake of the Italian Horizon vessel Andrea Doria and Italy's new
aircraft carrier Cavour. During Italian Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi's July visit, cooperation deals between the two
countries' defence ministries and navies were signed.
Britain is working to make up for lost time. Two ministers from
the recently elected Conservative-led coalition have visited Rio
de Janeiro in the last month, including U.K. Defence Minister
Gerald Howarth, who agreed to a deal on defense cooperation.
Howarth's visit was accompanied by the Royal Navy's biggest ship -
the helicopter carrier HMS Ocean - which undertook diplomacy and
exercise duties.
After reportedly starting the year looking for five OPVs, Brazil
has switched to the idea of a package of vessels. Deals may be
signed after national elections at the end of the year, but
industry officials said a signature could be many months away,
pointing to the time Brazil has spent deciding on a new fighter
jet.
British maritime prime BAE Systems has already submitted headline
proposals on meeting the requirement and has been asked by the
Brazilians to deliver a more detailed package in the next few
weeks.
Other British suppliers are also making a pitch for naval
business. BMT Defence Services has been in talks for some time
with Brazil over a possible deal involving the company's logistic
ship designs.
U.K. industry executives said the Brazilians are testing the
market with unofficial requests for proposals.
BAE believes it can offer the Brazilians something its European
rivals can't match: a seat at the table in the design and
development of a new frigate destined for the Royal Navy and
possibly other navies. a**Our proposals include an invitation to
become an international partner in our new Global Combat Ship
program,a** the export version of the Type 26 frigate, said Dean
McCumiskey, BAE managing director for the region.
The British are already talking to potential international
partners, including Australia and New Zealand, about development
of a warship that is presently in the early stages of a 130
million pound (206 million USD) assessment phase to produce the
Type 26 frigate for the Royal Navy.
a**We are proposing something along the lines of a Joint Strike
Fighter partnering model for warships with a series of bilateral
arrangements with other nations,a** one industry executive said.
a**With FREMM, it will be take it or leave it, or at best involve
the Brazilians in spending a lot of money changing the vessels to
meet their requirements. A partnership on the Global Combat Ship
means you can help shape the direction of the program rather than
get a vessel designed in the 1990s for someone else.a**
BAE said, in a recent statement, that in the near term it believes
its OPVs based on the Royal Navy's River class will be an
attractive option for the Brazilians. The company said aircraft
carrier designs could ultimately be involved in the offer.
Muir Macdonald, managing director at BMT Defence Services, a
leading U.K. naval design house, said that while the Brazilians
had requested international bidders present proposals that cover a
package of three warship types, the country could eventually mix
and match depending on where the best technology was available.
With the Royal Navy fleet in decline, the U.K. government, the
Navy and industry are stepping up cooperation in a bid to generate
affordable and flexible ships that will also attract exports. Type
26 development and the effort to partner with Brazil are among the
policy's first tests.
Small and medium-sized players in the U.K. maritime market said it
is important the British government pulled together in a Team U.K.
approach for Brazil to get the best offering possible.
--
Marko Papic
STRATFOR Analyst
marko.papic@stratfor.com
--
Marko Papic
STRATFOR Analyst
marko.papic@stratfor.com
--
Marko Papic
STRATFOR Analyst
marko.papic@stratfor.com
--
Marko Papic
STRATFOR Analyst
marko.papic@stratfor.com
