From Brian Winter, editor da The Americas Quarterly:
Jair Bolsonaro will face trial, Brazil's Supreme Court decided today. It’s hard not to feel some déjà vu. Nine years ago, prosecutors filed corruption charges against Lula, setting off a long and unpredictable saga that transformed Brazilian politics – and ended with Lula back in the presidency. I don’t think history will repeat itself with Bolsonaro, but it’s Brazil, so anything is possible.
The conventional wisdom in Brasília is that Bolsonaro will be convicted, though he may be able to avoid prison in the near term thanks to appeals and other delays. So this will become a very political process. Bolsonaro will appeal to public opinion in Brazil, and his friends abroad including the Trump administration, arguing that he is being unfairly persecuted by the Deep State to keep him from returning to power. That should cause some déjà vu, too.
My guess is that Bolsonaro will get some traction with these arguments, and have some success fighting back. I expect the trial will rally and reawaken his base, which has been a bit dormant in recent months. Given the drama around a trial, Lula’s sinking popularity, and the overall trends pushing Brazilian voters to the right, Brazil’s conservatives will thus be in a strong position for the 2026 election. If Jair Bolsonaro can’t be the candidate, and I don’t expect he will, then it might be a member of his family or (less likely in my view) the business community’s preferred candidate, São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas.
Finally, I do think President Trump and other conservative global leaders will line up to support Bolsonaro, making this a global cause. The perceived parallels with Trump’s legal troubles are simply too difficult to resist. There could be trade and economic implications if the White House follows up this support with sanctions against judges, or a broader use of Trump’s favorite tool — tariffs — against Brazil.
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