O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

sexta-feira, 26 de outubro de 2012

Ascensao do sovietismo, pela forca - Anne Applebaum

Dessa autora, eu já li sua monumental história do "Gulag", que recomendo, para aqueles que pretendem saber a verdade sobre os milhões de mortos ou escravizados sob o regime soviético.
Agora ela comparece com um outro livro sobre a extensão do gulag, misturado com gulash, servido uniformemente a milhões de cidadãos da Europa central e oriental obrigados a se submeter aos tacões do Exército Vermelho, vigiados pelos diversos serviços de espionagem da mais formidável máquina totalitária que já existiu em todos os séculos de história "civilizada" (em termos, já que durante nove décimos dessa história a humanidade conviveu com a escravidão, e no último a escravidão respondeu pelo nome de sistema soviético).
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 


Europe after the second world war

The power of red

How the Soviet empire’s ambitions contained the seeds of its own destruction

Iron Curtain: The Crushing of Eastern Europe 1944-1956. By Anne Applebaum. Allen Lane; 614 pages; £25. Doubleday; $35. Buy from Amazon.com,Amazon.co.uk
IN THE spring of 1945 the Polish city of Lodz was swamped with refugees. Local women organised themselves to help. Opening a shelter at the city railway station, they called themselves the Women’s League. Five years later the league had been transformed. It had a central office in Warsaw, which controlled its regional offices, and its goals were to “raise the level of women’s social consciousness” and to mobilise them “to the most complete realisation of the goals of the Six-Year Plan”. It had become, in other words, the women’s section of the Polish Communist Party. All over central Europe fledgling elements of civil society—clubs, associations, schools and churches—were thus co-opted into new, Soviet-occupied communist states. How did this happen, and why did the Soviet Union’s attempt to impose totalitarianism on its new empire ultimately fail? These are the questions that lie at the core of Anne Applebaum’s illuminating new book.
Though from the outset, central Europeans suffered arbitrary expropriations and arrests, initially the Soviet authorities sought to create the semblance of national independence and political pluralism. Local communist parties ruled in notional coalitions. National symbols were reinstated. In Berlin, the future spymaster Markus Wolf hosted a radio programme entitled “You Ask, We Answer”, which as well as praising Russian communism, answered listeners’ queries on vegetable supplies and the reopening of the Berlin zoo.
The mask dropped with the first post-war elections. These were held, Ms Applebaum stresses, because central Europe’s “little Stalins” sincerely believed they would win. In the event, in Hungary’s national elections of November 1945, the communists took just 17% of the vote, and in January 1947 the Polish Peasants’ Party, led by a former member of General Wladyslaw Sikorksi’s government-in-exile, won a parliamentary election so thoroughly, despite violent intimidation, that the results had brazenly to be falsified. Nowhere were the real victors allowed to take power, and opposition leaders were subsequently arrested or fled into exile.
The solution to this, Moscow believed, was not less communism but more. Central Europeans, like Russians, could be moulded into Homo sovieticus: conformist, optimistic, hard-working and socially conscious. Across the block, schoolchildren, like their Russian counterparts before them, started learning ditties in praise of Stalin. In factories, workers competed to become Stakhanovite “shockworkers”. Writers and artists, lured home by promises of fat commissions and vast print runs, found themselves turning out unreadable novels and Socialist Realist murals.
But Stalinism contained the seeds of its own destruction. In a system that seeks to control everything, Ms Applebaum points out, any sort of spontaneity or individuality, however apolitical, becomes a form of protest. And spontaneity there was. In newly built steel towns, anxious officials reported, workers failed to attend the theatre after work, haunting instead pubs and underground brothels. Young people began sporting drainpipe trousers, ducktail quiffs, kipper ties andmakarturki, named for the style of sunglasses worn by General Douglas MacArthur. In Germany, hundreds of thousands crossed from East to West, despite ever-tightening Soviet border controls. Everywhere, people told bitterly satirical jokes.
The cracks widened dramatically with Stalin’s death in March 1953. Within months, strikes broke out in several German cities, demands for better pay being underlined by attacks on party headquarters and Russian-language bookshops. Walter Ulbricht and his puppet government holed up in the offices of the Soviet ambassador, and Russian tanks, not East German police, fired at the demonstrators. Three years later a second shock (Nikita Khrushchev’s “Secret Speech” to the 20th party congress, denouncing Stalin’s purges and personality cult) sparked the Hungarian uprising. It was crushed, but so too was the totalitarian dream.
Human beings, as Ms Applebaum rousingly concludes, do not acquire “totalitarian personalities” with ease. Even when they seem bewitched by the cult of the leader or of the party, appearances can deceive, she writes. When it seems as if they buy into the most absurd propaganda—marching in parades, chanting slogans, singing that the party is always right—the spell can suddenly, unexpectedly, dramatically be broken.

Estudos na Alemanha: programa MGG

Programa de Capacitação – Managing Global Governance 2013

GIZ – Cooperação Alemã para o Desenvolvimento e o DIE – Instituto Alemão para o Desenvolvimento, em nome do Ministério Federal da Cooperação Econômica e do Desenvolvimento da Alemanha (BMZ), têm a satisfação de informar sobre a abertura de inscrições para a 11ª edição do programa de capacitação MGG – Managing Global Governance, a ser realizado na Alemanha no período de junho/ julho a dezembro de 2013.

Diante do crescente fenômeno da globalização, a paz, a prosperidade, o desenvolvimento sustentável e a estabilidade social podem apenas ser atingidos por meio da expansão da cooperação internacional. Desenhar e construir um sistema mais efetivo de governança global é uma das tarefas primordiais neste processo de cooperação entre países. Também é um importante requisito para se alcançar os padrões de desenvolvimento afirmados em acordos internacionais como os Objetivos de Desenvolvimento do Milênio, promulgado pela Organização das Nações Unidas. Neste cenário, torna-se indispensável que países como Brasil, China, México, Índia, África do Sul, Egito, Indonésia e Paquistão assumam um papel de destaque, tanto em contextos regionais como globais, para o enfrentamento de desafios mundiais – tais quais a redução da pobreza, o crescimento econômico e a sustentabilidade ambiental.

O programa MGG está formatado em três etapas: Etapa Preparatória (no país de origem do candidato, com duração de 2 meses), Etapa de Capacitação (na Alemanha, com duração de 6 meses) e Etapa de Seguimento (no país de origem do candidato, com duração de 6 meses). A Etapa de Capacitaçãoinclui um período de formação e outro período de estágio em uma Organização Internacional ou da Comunidade Europeia.

O público alvo a que se dirige o programa MGG é de jovens especialistas e executivos, bem como decisores que trabalham na administração pública, no setor privado ou instituições de pesquisa. Sua atuação prioritária deve estar orientada para políticas internacionais, relações internacionais ou cooperação internacional, em áreas como comércio, finanças, meio ambiente, segurança e desenvolvimento.

Espera-se como resultado da capacitação que o participante desenvolva uma proficiência analítica, bem como uma capacidade para elaborar e moldar políticas ou projetos em sua área de atuação específica. Após concluído o programa de capacitação, o participante haverá também ingressado em uma rede internacional que reúne especialistas e executivos de instituições proeminentes de diversos países, dentre os quais México, África do Sul, Índia e China.

Este programa de capacitação é integralmente financiado pelo Governo alemão, requerendo-se como contrapartida da Instituição parceira a autorização de dispensa do funcionário para participar do programa bem como o pagamento da passagem aérea. É indispensável que o participante seja fluente no idioma inglês.

Nesse sentido, considerando a importante contribuição que a Fundação Getulio Vargas poderá oferecer ao debate internacional a respeito da Governança Global, temos a grata satisfação de convidar um representante que Vossa Senhoria possa por bem designar, a inscrever-se para participar do referido programa. Informamos que o prazo para recebimento das inscrições é dia 09 de dezembro de 2012, e que a seleção final dos participantes será feita pela sede da GIZ na Alemanha e comunicada oficialmente no final de dezembro de 2012.

Em anexo encontram-se informações detalhadas a respeito do formato e metodologia do programa MGG, bem como a ficha de inscrição. Em caso de dúvidas, favor entrar em contato com Carla Pereira através do email: carla.pereira@giz.de.

Nessas condições, agradeceríamos receber uma manifestação de interesse acerca da participação no programa MGG e reiteramos nossa disposição para esclarecer eventuais dúvidas e também apoiar ao longo do processo de candidatura e etapa preparatória.

Atenciosamente,
Carla Pereira
GIZ no Brasil
Gerente 

Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Rua Verbo Divino 1.488, 3º andar, Bloco A
04719 904 – São Paulo SP
Brasil

T +55 11 5187-5095
F +55 11 5187-5099

China: a enorme censura do Big Brother


China Blocks Web Access to Times After Article



HONG KONG — The Chinese government swiftly blocked access Friday morning to the English-language and Chinese-language Web sites of The New York Times from computers in mainland China in response to the news organization’s decision to post an article in both languages describing wealth accumulated by the family of the country’s prime minister.
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The authorities were also blocking attempts to mention The Times or the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, in postings on Sina Weibo, an extremely popular mini-blogging service in China that resembles Twitter.
The Foreign Ministry spokesman on duty in Beijing early Friday morning did not immediately answer phone calls for comment.
China maintains the world’s most extensive and sophisticated system for Internet censorship, employing tens of thousands of people to monitor what is said, delete entries that contravene the country’s extensive and unpublished regulations and even write new entries that are favorable to the government.
Rebecca MacKinnon, a senior fellow specializing in Internet free expression and privacy issues at the New America Foundation, a nonpartisan group headquartered in Washington, said that the Chinese interruption of Internet access was typical of the response to information that offended leaders.
“This is what they do: they get mad, they block you,” she said.
The English-language and Chinese-language Web sites of The Times are hosted on servers outside mainland China.
A spokeswoman for The Times, Eileen Murphy, expressed disappointment that Internet access had been blocked and noted that the Chinese-language Web site had attracted “great interest” in China.
“We hope that full access is restored shortly, and we will ask the Chinese authorities to ensure that our readers in China can continue to enjoy New York Times journalism,” she said in a statement, adding, “We will continue to report and translate stories applying the same journalistic standards that are upheld across The New York Times.”
Former President Jiang Zemin of China ordered an end to blocking of The New York Times Web site after meeting with journalists from The Times in August 2001. The company’s Web sites, like those of most other foreign media organizations, have remained mostly free of blocking since then, with occasional, temporary exceptions.
By 7 a.m. Friday in China, access to both the English- and Chinese-language Web sites of The Times was blocked from all 31 cities in mainland China tested. The Times had posted the article in English at 4:34 p.m. on Thursday in New York (4:34 a.m. Friday in Beijing), and finished posting the article in Chinese three hours later after the translation of final edits to the English-language version.
Publication of the article about Mr. Wen and his family comes at a delicate time in Chinese politics, during a year in which factional rivalries and the personal lives of Chinese leaders have come into public view to a rare extent and drawn unprecedented international interest.
The Times’s statement called China “an increasingly open society, with increasingly sophisticated media,” adding, “The response to our site suggests that The Times can play an important role in the government’s efforts to raise the quality of journalism available to the Chinese people.”
The New York Times is not the first international organization to run into trouble with Chinese censors. Google decided to move its servers for the Chinese market in January 2010, to Hong Kong, a semiautonomous Chinese territory outside the country’s censorship firewalls, after the company was unable to reach an agreement with the Chinese authorities to allow unrestricted searches of the Internet.
Bloomberg published an article on June 29 describing wealth accumulated by the family of Vice President Xi Jinping, who is expected to become the country’s next top leader as general secretary of the Communist Party during the coming Party Congress.
Since then, Bloomberg’s operations have encountered a series of problems in mainland China, including the blocking of its Web site, which is in English.

Shifting tectonic plates in the banking industry - Otaviano Canuto


HuffPost Social Reading
Otaviano Canuto
GET UPDATES FROM OTAVIANO CANUTO

Shifting Tectonic Plates Under Global Banking

Markets Global-Banking Global-Banking-Markets Global-Jobs-Market World News
Posted: 10/24/2012 1:23 pm
The global financial crisis has reversed an expansionary trend of international activities by banks from advanced countries that had been at play for decades. From the late 1970s to 2008, banks not only found new opportunities for intermediation in increasing cross-border capital flows, but they also raised their profile in domestic credit provision abroad. We are now watching an upheaval of that landscape, its ground dramatically shifting with the unfolding of the crisis.
As highlighted by Mansoor Dailami and Jonathon Adams-Kane in this week's Economic Premise- - "What Does the Future Hold for the International Banking System?" - European banks wrote their own chapter of that story (see chart below, from Dailami's and Adams-Kane's report). The European integration set the stage for their expansion, going much beyond the euro area's limits. They also became key agents in the operation of the U.S. "shadow banking" system, releasing themselves from dependence on retail deposits by borrowing in money markets to build a fast-growing asset base denominated in U.S. dollars.
2012-10-24-canuto-ep94fig.jpg
The pre-2008 era in global finance may be called a "Great Leveraging." Banks and non-banking financial institutions overstretched their balance sheets, indulging themselves on sources of non-deposit funding in order to scale up asset holdings that were many times larger than their capital base. Their newly found source of funding was highly sensitive to interest rate changes, credit risks and events. On the other side of their balance sheets, real estate bubbles and other hyper-inflated assets in the U.S. and some parts of Europe comprised the top of an asset pyramid erected with flimsy foundations.
A "Great Deleveraging" started when, under market and regulatory pressures from 2007 onwards, financial institutions were forced to liquidate assets and retrench lending. Bank lending fell from 68 percent of global GDP in early 2008 to 50 percent in 2009, where it has remained. Raising more capital would have been the alternative to selling assets and shrinking loan portfolios, but clearly the confidence in the solidity of banks' edifices had evaporated.
Japanese banks did not embark on the "Great Leveraging", as they spent the last two decades healing from their own previous financial follies. U.S. banks managed to make rapid progress in deleveraging, and their loan-deposit ratios had already declined substantially by 2011. It is on the European side that the process kept unfolding at high-speed, and yet failed to reach comfort levels in terms of capital-asset ratios.
So what, you might ask? Isn't the system simply returning to the initial configuration prior to the "Great Leveraging", with European banks devolving part of their overreach? Let me single out two processes among those approached by Dailami and Adams-Kane that preclude such a return to the origin.
Firstly, the European deleveraging has been more of an unraveling process, one in which the end game remains elusive and banks may still undergo substantial balance-sheet downsizing. The financial crisis morphed into fiscal crises in several countries, and negative feedback loops between banks' portfolios and public debts have been at play. The euro area banking system is now fragmented into national systems, some of them facing dependence on fragile public debts, as well as large declines in deposits.
Secondly, the center of gravity of global growth is shifting toward developing countries. Not by chance, while European banks deleveraged and divested their stakes in the U.S, like their American counterparts they have made efforts to uphold domestic positions in dynamic developing countries. However, emerging-market-owned banks have been the greatest beneficiaries of that gravity shift and are seizing the opportunity to gradually become global players, snapping up market spaces left open by retrenching banks.
Such movement of tectonic plates has kept high the peril of landslides for euro deleveraged area banks, and one may expect the adoption of unconventional monetary policies by the European Central Bank to stay heavy and for long. On the other hand, given the structural fragility of the standing banking edifice, with remaining deleveraging pressures, one may not envisage an end to the euro area crisis if actions are not taken outside the monetary policy realm.
Follow the latest from Otaviano Canuto at twitter.com/OCanuto and keep up with the World Bank's efforts to help countries fight poverty and close gaps in income and opportunity attwitter.com/WBPoverty. For more Economic Premise notes, go to worldbank.org/economicpremise.

Mark Twain and the American elections


Donald T. Bliss

GET UPDATES FROM DONALD T. BLISS

What Would Mark Twain Say About the 2012 Election?

Posted: 10/25/2012 
"If we would learn what the human race really is at bottom, we need only observe it at election time, " Mark Twain dictated for his autobiography on January 23, 1906. Mostly remembered as "the Lincoln of our literature," Samuel Clemens who became Mark Twain was also the America's first global celebrity, an astute observer and much sought-after commentator on American politics. And his insightful commentary retains an uncanny relevance to the challenges facing contemporary America, as fresh and provocative as any TV "talking head."
Dropping out of school at twelve when his father suddenly died, Sam Clemens was self-educated as a printer's devil, setting type in his brother Orion's Hannibal, Missouri, newspaper shop -- what Abraham Lincoln called a "poor boy's college education." After the Civil War, Twain headed to Washington, D.C., to clerk for Republican Senator William M. Stewart of Nevada. Hordes of railroad, mining and banking lobbyists flooded the corridors of power seeking special favors. Congress picked winners and losers, and money co-opted the legislative process. That his Senate boss chaired the Pacific Railroad Committee while on the dole of the Central Pacific Railroad was simply the way Washington did business -- by bribery, vote-buying and passing legislation that enriched its sponsors. Twain's oft-quoted maxim: "It could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no distinctly native American criminal class except Congress," reflected the corrupt politics of The Gilded Age, the title of Twain's first novel, written in 1873 with Charles Dudley Warner. It was the epoch of Americans' obsession with getting rich, speculation in the financial markets, the influence of money and lobbyists in Congress, and rising income disparity between the rich and middle class. "The political and commercial morals of the United States," Twain wrote, "are not merely food for laughter -- they are an entire banquet." Contemporary commentators, who have noted recent parallels to the Gilded Age, have invoked another Twain aphorism: "History does not repeat itself; it rhymes."
Within two months, Senator Stewart fired his young legislative aide, and Twain moved over to newspaper row to report on the nation's capital. He mocked the platitudinous rhetoric of Congressmen and the lobbyists who their wrote speeches and their partisan bickering and parliamentary maneuvers like filibusters, repetitive roll calls, meaningless votes and incessant motions. Twain reported on an actual colloquy in the Congressional Globe (predecessor to the Record) in which Illinois Congressman and war hero General "Black Jack" Logan complained that two Congressmen had given exactly the same speech on the House floor a few days apart, written by a lobbyist. Only two? The New York Times reported in 2009 that during the House debate on so-called Obamacare, 22 Republicans and 20 Democrats used the same speech written by a Washington lobbyist.
As he severed his southern roots and moved to New England, Twain did an 180-degree turn on some issues, like race, women's suffrage, the death penalty and free trade. He strongly advocated social and racial justice. In satires like "The Great Beef Contract," he mocked incompetent federal employees appointed under the spoils system. He championed civil service reform. He bitterly attacked America's imperialist engagement in unjust wars and occupation of foreign lands.
Twain never joined a political party. He condemned elected representatives who put "loyalty to party" above "loyalty to country."He campaigned for and against candidates based on their character and record of integrity. "I simply want to see the right man at the helm," he said, "I don't care what his party creed is." Politicians would say anything to get elected and their promises simply didn't add up. He once wrote: "If you would work the multiplication table into the Democratic platform, the Republicans will vote it down at the election." He complained that "in the interest of party expediency," politicians "give solemn pledges; they make solemn compacts." They deliver their "political conscience into someone's else's keeping."
Twain was especially critical of negative campaigning -- mischaracterizing and demonizing the opposition. In "Running for Governor," he runs as a squeaky clean candidate against the corrupt machine, but he is assailed by scurrilous, fabricated attacks. When the press ignores his attempts to correct the record, he is forced to withdraw from the race, "a damaged candidate." Well before the internet, Twain remarked, "A lie can travel halfway around the globe, before the truth can get its shoes on."
Despite his skepticism, Twain passionately believed in representative democracy. As he wrote his dear wife Livy after the Tammany Hall Democrats had been swept from office in an 1893 New York state election, "Now you understand why our system of government is the only rational one that was ever invented. When we are not satisfied, we can change things."
America's success, Twain believed, depends upon educated, informed and engaged citizens, who demand accountability from elected representatives and speak out for reforms. As Mark Twain admonished, in words that retain a contemporary relevance: "It cannot be well, or safe to let the present political conditions continue indefinitely. They can be improved, and American citizenship should rouse up from its disheartenment and see that it is done."

quinta-feira, 25 de outubro de 2012

Um milhao de visitas: se fosse pedágio, estaria rico...

De vez em quando, caio, por acaso, nas estatísticas deste modesto blog. Digo que "caio" porque é isso que de fato ocorre, quando clico em botão errado, o que acontece por pressa, distração ou desvio das justas finalidades deste espaço virtual, que está invariavelmente empenhado na elevação espiritual da humanidade, em geral, e especialmente em favor do engrandecimento intelectual dos leitores, navegantes, habituais frequentadores, visitantes ocasionais, serviços de inteligência xeretas, amigos e inimigos deste que aqui escreve.
E o que encontrei no último "tombo" nessas estatísticas?
Isto:

Visualizações de página de hoje:
1.457
Visualizações de página de ontem: 
2.072
Visualizações do mês passado:  
51.901
Histórico de todas as visualizações: 
1.018.764

E quantos são os heróicos frequentadores deste espaço?
Seguidores 630 

 Apenas imaginando que o distinto movimento neoliberal que tomou de assalto a máquina do Estado, neste mesmo momento, rendendo-se, finalmente às evidências econômicas mais evidentes, e que em lugar de privatizações (indecentes, por definição), prefere um regime de concessão de determinados serviços públicos ao setor privado (o que, também por definição, é totalmente distinto das pervesas privatizações), esse movimento, dizia eu, implica, por exemplo, no estabelecimento de pedágio nas excelentes estradas federais, e continuando a imaginar que este blog é igualzinho a uma estrada, apenas que levando ao conhecimento, e não ao enriquecimento dos membros da nomenklatura, que como todos sabem constitui uma nova classe, pois bem, imaginando que este blog seja uma estrada, se eu tivesse seguido os distintos companheiros das justas causas, e colocado um pedágio de apenas um realzinho a cada acesso a este blog, eu teria, hoje, exatamente, esta fortuna:

R$ 1.018.764,00 (por extenso: um milhão, dezoito mil, setecentos e sessenta e quatro reais, e zero centavos),

o que está bem e adequado para comprar novas estantes, reformar as antigas, aumentar a biblioteca e se infernizar com a bagunça dos livros.
Enfim, nem tudo dá certo nesta vida.
Os companheiros que o digam...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Crise dos Anos 1930 e as licoes para o presente - Barry Eichengreen

Um excelente paper do conhecido economista de Berkeley, aqui apenas resumido, mas remetendo ao texto completo:

Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies - Barry Eichengreen

http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v53/n3/full/ces20115a.html
Comparative Economic Studies (2011) 53, 383–406. doi:10.1057/ces.2011.5; published online 24 March 2011

Crisis and Growth in the Advanced Economies: What We Know, What We Do not, and What We Can Learn from the 1930s

Barry Eichengreen1
1University of California, Evans Hall 508, CA 94708 Berkeley, USA. E-mail: eichengr@econ.berkeley.edu
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Abstract

This paper addresses the question of whether the medium- and long-term growth potential of the advanced economies has been impaired by the global financial crisis. It evidence from the Great Despression of the 1930s to illuminate the prospects, concluding the following. First, the impact of weak bank balance sheets and heightened risk aversion made it harder for small firms. in particular, to fund investment projects. Second, there is little evidence that increased public debt or policy uncertainity had major effects in depressing investment. Third, structural unemployment dissolved quickly in the face of increased demand. Fourth and finally, the crisis was also an opportunity as firms used the downtime created by the Depression to reorganize and modernize their operations.