O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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Mostrando postagens com marcador Alemanha. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Alemanha. Mostrar todas as postagens

terça-feira, 22 de julho de 2014

Alemanha desmantela o mais poderoso cartel de todos os tempos...

Poderoso talvez não pelo lado estratégico da coisa, ou talvez sim: o que seria o povo alemão sem a salsicha, o que seria da Oktoberfest, o que seria da democracia?

Alemanha desmonta cartel da salsicha com multa de R$ 1 bi
Investigação do órgão antitruste descobriu que 21 fabricantes de salsicha estavam combinando preços para o varejo desde 2003

Alemania multa a un cartel de salchichas con 338 millones

La Oficina Federal Alemana de Competencia ha anunciado este lunes una multa de 338 millones de euros a 21 fabricantes de salchichas, entre los que se encuentra una filial de Nestlé (Herta GmbH), Böklunder, Wiesenhof o Rügenwalder, y a 33 personas por acordar de forma ilegal los precios de las mismas durante varias décadas, según ha señalado en un comunicado.

Así, la autoridad de competencia del país ha asegurado que existen documentos que prueban un "acuerdo básico" entre estos fabricantes para informarse regularmente sobre los incrementos de precio. En concreto, este organismo afirma que "durante varias décadas fabricantes conocidos de salchichas se reunieron bajo el nombre de Grupo Atlantic", debido al lugar de su primer encuentro, el Hotel Atlantic en Hamburgo, "para debatir sobre el desarrollo del mercado y los precios".

Además, en las reuniones del Grupo Atlantic se cerraban acuerdos, en particular desde 2003, para incrementar los precios de forma conjunta para la venta de salchichas en el comercio minorista.

El presidente de la Oficina Federal de Competencia, Andreas Mundt, ha destacado que la fijación de precios fue practicada "durante muchos años" y ha recalcado que, "aunque la multa total pueda parecer alta en un principio, hay que considerarla en perspectiva, debido al alto número de compañías involucradas, la duración del cartel y los miles de millones de euros de volumen de negocios de este mercado".

Mundt ha señalado además que la autoridad de competencia del país "ha mantenido un sentido de proporción al establecer las multas, debido a que existen algunas compañías que son pequeñas o medianas empresas". En cualquier caso, el comunicado no detalla cuál ha sido la sanción concreta para cada fabricante, aunque apunta que van "desde unos pocos cientos de miles de euros hasta grandes cantidades de millones".

Finalmente, la Oficina Federal de Competencia ha indicado que recibió las primeras informaciones a través de una filtración anónima y que, durante el procedimiento, once empresas colaboraron en la investigación, por lo que se han visto beneficiadas en el cálculo de sus multas. En todo caso, señala que dichas multas no son fijas y que pueden ser recurridas durante dos semanas en el Tribunal Supremo regional de Düsseldorf.


terça-feira, 15 de julho de 2014

Deu no Shanghai Daily: herois alemaes da Copa saudados por centenas de milhares

German heroes get huge welcome

GERMANY’S World Cup winners shared their fourth title with hundreds of thousands of fans by parading the trophy through cheering throngs to celebrate at the historic Brandenburg Gate yesterday.
An estimated 400,000 people packed the “fan mile” in front of the Berlin landmark to welcome home coach Joachim Loew’s team and the trophy — which returned to Germany for the first time in 24 years. It crowned years of work by Loew to modernize the team, and followed a string of near misses at recent tournaments.
“We’re all world champions!” Loew told the crowd.
“Of course, it was a long way to the title, and an incredibly tough one in the end. But we’re incredibly happy to be here with the fans now.”
Captain Philipp Lahm hoisted the World Cup trophy to a giant roar from the crowd.
“What a mood here, thanks so much to everyone,” Lahm said as he passed the golden statuette to his fellow players.
Team members wearing black shirts emblazoned with the number 1 took the stage in groups to greet ecstatic supporters.
They carried a long banner reading “Obrigado Fans”, “thank you” in Portuguese in a nod to tournament host Brazil, and “the fourth title is ours”.
Mario Goetze, the scorer in the 1-0 win over Argentina in the final at the Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, was greeted with deafening cheers by the sea of fans waving black, red and gold Germany flags.
The midfielder called the Mannschaft’s win “a dream”.
“We played an amazing tournament,” he said. “It’s an incredible feeling.”
Midfielder Toni Kroos led the crowd in a chant of “Miro Klose” — a tribute to veteran striker Miroslav Klose, whose two goals took his World Cup tally to 16 and made him the tournament’s all-time leading scorer.
The players jumped and danced in a raucous circle on the stage, singing “this is how the Germans win, this is how the Germans win”.
The team plane landed at Tegel Airport in midmorning after flying low over the “fan mile” — which by then had been packed for hours, with some waiting overnight to get places at the front.
Lahm led the team off the aircraft holding the trophy aloft, to cheers and a chorus of “Football’s Coming Home” from fans on the airport’s viewing terrace.
He was followed by midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger, draped in a German flag and sporting a bandage under his right eye, the result of a cut in the final.
From the airport, the team set off on a two-hour trip to downtown Berlin in a bus painted with the years of Germany’s World Cup victories: The previous occasions were in 1954, 1974 and 1990. The players climbed aboard an open-top truck for the last part of the trip to the Brandenburg Gate, crawling through the crowds.
Forward Lukas Podolski posted a selfie with Schweinsteiger and the trophy. He tweeted: “The Cup is in Berlin!!!”
Midfielder Mesut Ozil tweeted photos of fans, writing “What a crowd! Unbelievable!”

quinta-feira, 12 de junho de 2014

Historia do pensamento economico alemao e do ensino da economia na Alemannha, de 1812 a nossos dias

Transcrevendo uma postagem da lista de História do Pensamento Econômico, que frequento, sobre uma base de dados que me parece altamente interessante:

Dear colleagues,

Those of you who read German and are interested in the institutional history of economics might want to have look at a new webpage that I created with a team of students on the history of the economics faculty at today's Humboldt University in Berlin. It entails, next to a series of short texts, a searchable database of all courses ever given since the foundation of the university in 1812 (about 20.000), ranging from early cameral sciences, over the historicist and inter-war period, national socialism, GDR, to today. The more prominent scholars are Schmoller, Sombart, Stackelberg, Kuczynski, and Uhlig, but many others (1200) less known economists can be traced by their teaching activities, and, if available, short biographies and photographs.


Cordial wishes,

Till Düppe
Professeur adjoint
Département des sciences économiques
École des sciences de la gestion
Université du Québec à Montréal
Pavillon des Sciences de la gestion
315, rue Sainte-Catherine Est, local R-5610
Montréal (Québec), H2X 3X2, Canada

Téléphone: (514) 987-3000 5577#

sábado, 15 de fevereiro de 2014

Primeira Guerra Mundial e o debate de historiadores: quao culpado foi o Imperio Alemao? - Der Spiegel

A Alemanha, país, ou nação, de imensas realizações nos campos da cultura, da ciência, da filosofia, da história, continua a ser uma sociedade torturada por ações e processos vergonhosos em seu passado, nomeadamente a Primeira Guerra Mundial (ainda em debate) e os doze anos de nazismo, que causaram incomensuráveis desastres em toda a Europa e em boa parte do mundo, inclusive no terreno das ideias e motivações, pois pequenos nazistas ainda pululam um pouco em todas as partes proclamando a superioridade de uns sobre outros, e instilando ódio, desprezo, racismo, intolerância, quando não crimes e genocídios.
O genocídio, a despeito de já existir implicitamente antes e sob variadas circunstâncias, tomou uma forma definitiva no século 20, com os massacres nazistas sobre populações indefesas e com o terrível holocausto, que pretendeu eliminar todo um povo, conseguindo matar 5 ou 6 milhões de judeus em várias partes da Europa.
O fato é que os alemães continuam a ser angustiados e torturados por sua terrível história, não de todo o povo alemão, mas de alguns líderes nefastos, nacionalistas e racistas ao extremo, a ponto de provocar catástrofes inacreditáveis, no que foram seguidos sempre pela massa inerme de cidadãos pouco educados, que são sempre em maior número que o pequeno número de ilustrados que tentam se opor aos desastres.
Essa responsabilidade o povo alemão carrega consigo, e seus historiadores deveriam trabalhar sobre ela. Mas parece que alguns pretendem, na verdade, descarregar tamanha responsabilidade, e se eximir de tantas culpas.
O debate continua, como se pode ver pela longa matéria abaixo, que continua nos links finais, não transcritos neste post, mas que valeria conferir.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

World War I Guilt: 

Culpability Question Divides Historians Today

By Dirk Kurbjuweit
Der Spiegel, February 14, 2014
(The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 7/2014 (February 10, 2014) of DER SPIEGEL.)
This year marks the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War I and the 75th of the start of World War II. Questions over the degree of German guilt remain contentious among historians, who have been fighting over the issue for years.
In his book "The Blood Intoxication of the Bolsheviks," published in the early 1920s, a certain R. Nilostonsky described a particularly horrific form of torture used in the Russian civil war. A rat was placed into an iron pipe, which was then pressed against the body of a prisoner. When the torturers placed the other end of the pipe against a fire, the panic-stricken rat had only one choice: to eat its way through the prisoner
When Hitler met with his officers on Feb. 1, 1943, after the defeat at Stalingrad, he told them that he suspected some German prisoners were likely to commit treason. "You have to imagine a prisoner being brought to Moscow, and then imagine the 'rat cage.' That prisoner will sign anything."
Historian Ernst Nolte published an essay in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper on June 6, 1986. In it, he suggested that Hitler's use of the term "rat cage" meant that the Nazi leader had heard of the Soviet form of torture involving a rat and a pipe. For Nolte, this served as evidence of the fear that Hitler and his men had of the Russians, a fear that could have "prompted" them to commit genocide.
In 1988, historian Hans-Ulrich Wehler published a book in which he devoted an entire chapter to the "rat cage," in an effort to prove that Nolte's theory was wrong.
As much as their debate seemed to revolve around rats, the real issue was culpability. How much guilt has Germany acquired throughout its history? And does the anecdote about Hitler and the Russian rat torture somehow diminish German guilt?
This year will be a historic one, marking three important anniversaries: the 100th anniversary of the eruption of World War I, the 75th anniversary of the start of World War II and the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. The first two dates have been the source of heated debates among German intellectuals. The Fischer controversy in the early 1960s had to do with assigning blame for the eruption of World War I, while the dispute between historians in the mid-1980s revolved around culpability for the Holocaust. Both debates were informed by the positions in what was then a divided nation, including views on German unification.
History is not just history, but also a part of the present. This is especially true of Germany. The overwhelming history of the 20th century engulfed the country and shaped the consciousness of politically active citizens.
Both debates ended in victory for those who advocated Germany accepting the greatest possible culpability and therefore sought to exclude the possibility of German reunification, fearing that a unified Germany could lead to fatal consequences, perhaps even a third world war. As a result, German consciousness was strongly influenced by this acceptance of guilt for decades to come.
A New Identity for Germans?
In the meantime, new information has come to light on the issues in both debates, which tends to support the losing side. Could this lead to a new national identity for Germans?
The importance of this question underscores the need to revisit the Fischer controversy and the dispute among historians in this historic year. It also focuses our attention, once again, on a controversial concept of the day: revisionism. It was once anathema to one side of the debate, and subsequently to the other. But it's a necessary debate.
A device that has already been relegated to history stands on the desk of Hans-Ulrich Wehler: a typewriter. In a sense, Wehler lives between the Netherlands and Italy, in a white house on the outskirts of the northwestern German city of Bielefeld, near the underground Dutch-Italian natural gas pipeline. For Wehler, living so close to the pipeline means that nothing can be built to spoil his view. When he sits in his office, he looks out at trees and meadows. Behind him are enough books to take an ordinary person an entire life to read, but for Wehler they represent only a small portion of his reading material.
He was a professor at the University of Bielefeld for 25 years. His most important work is a book called "Deutsche Gesellschaftsgeschichte" (German Social History). Wehler, 82, is a slim, cheerful man with a hint of the singsong accent typical of the Rhineland region.
When he was an assistant professor at the University of Cologne in the early 1960s, Wehler attended a colloquium led by Hamburg historian Fritz Fischer. But he was disappointed. He had expected something wild and exciting, but Fischer was a conservative man who "engaged in the conventional history of diplomacy."
Destroying a Comfortable Relationship with the Past
In 1961, Fischer published a book called "Germany's Aims in the First World War." A sentence in Fischer's book led to many changes. For Fischer, the German Reich bore "a substantial share of the historical responsibility for the outbreak of the general war."
The young Wehler was speechless. He had been waiting for a sentence like that.
At the time, West Germany was a country that felt relatively at ease with its past. The "national master narrative," the account of Germany's good past, still existed. The 12 Nazi years were certainly viewed as horrific, but they were also largely repressed at the time. German history prior to the Nazi era was viewed as anything from tolerable to heroic, including the history of World War I. German historians of the early postwar period clung to a word that had been used by former British Prime Minister David Lloyd George: "slid." In George's view, the major powers had slid into the war, which meant that everyone was equally culpable or innocent.
Fischer's theories destroyed this comfortable relationship with the past. He saw a continuity between the war objectives and 1914 and 1939: great conquests with the goal achieving global power. The German Empire became a precursor to the Nazi regime and World War I an overture to World War II. "A mine has been placed against the good conscience of the Germans," SPIEGEL, which agreed with Fischer's ideas, wrote in its review of his book.
For Gerhard Ritter, an important historian at the time, Fischer's book was intolerable. He had served the German Kaiser as a soldier in World War I, and he believed that Fischer's theories were a "national disaster." He was uninterested in revisionist history. The Fischer controversy had begun, a debate that was carried out in newspapers and magazine, and at the 1964 "Historikertag" (Conference of German Historians) in Berlin.
Wehler says he defended Fischer "as much as possible." But he was still too young at the time to be taken seriously as a historian.
The dispute soon became political. In 1964, the German Foreign Ministry tried to prevent Fischer from traveling to the United States to give a series of lectures. In 1965, Franz Josef Strauss, the deputy chairman of the conservative faction in the German parliament, the Bundestag, called upon the government to do everything in its power "to combat and eradicate the habitual, negligent and deliberate distortions of German history and Germany's image today, distortions that are sometimes made with the intention of dissolving the Western community."
Strauss was troubled by the idea of "sole moral responsibility," which was not something Fischer had mentioned but had become a central concept in the dispute. This is often the case in debates, when they become condensed into individual words and sentences, making do with less than complete accuracy in the interest of strengthening an argument.
Carving History into Stone
Fischer's view prevailed. Whether the term being used was "sole responsibility" or a "significant share of the historic responsibility," the national master narrative had been destroyed -- an agreeable outcome for those who dominated the public dialogue starting in the late 1960s, the student revolutionaries who came to be known as the 1968 generation.
In 1972 historian Immanuel Geiss, one of Fischer's students, said: "The overwhelming role played by the German Reich in the outbreak of World War I and the offensive character of Germany's war objectives is no longer a point of controversy, nor is it disputable." It was as if he were carving history into stone.
Geiss knew how to make this final state of the history of World War I politically useful. In his view, the Fischer controversy had produced a new kind of person, "the German who had become insightful." From the 1972 perspective, Geiss had developed instructions for this person. The first and second world wars, he said, had resulted in "the need to make do with the status of lesser powers in Europe," as well as the "final liquidation of all patriotic dreams of a German Reich." He was referring to the possibility of German reunification. "Any attempt to circumvent these political consequences, to squeeze past them, would inevitably lead to a third phase of German power politics, hence leading to a third world war initiated, once again, by Germany."
Four decades later, over lunch at Potsdamer Platz in Berlin, Herfried Münkler, 62, shoots that notion down. A third world war? Nowhere in sight. Power politics? Difficult question. Germany is a power in Europe once again, but primarily an economic one. Münkler is critical of Germany, which, as "the strongest player at the center is keeping itself out of the political fray."

Münkler, who teaches political science at Berlin's Humboldt University, has just written a book about World War I, "Der Grosse Krieg" (The Great War). He refers to Fritz Fischer's research as "outrageous, in principle," noting that the historian limited his research to German archives, ignoring Russian, English and French material. This, says Münkler, meant that Fischer couldn't have discovered that the other major powers also had reasons to go to war.Confusing Scenarios and Political Plans
Besides, says Münkler, Fischer "confused scenarios and political plans." The German military leaders had in fact developed war plans, just as everyone else had, he explains. They were determined to be prepared. But the political leadership did not embrace these plans, says Münkler. Australian historian Christopher Clark reaches similar conclusions in his book "The Sleepwalkers." There are similarities between sleepwalking and sliding into war. Both involve uncontrolled movements.
Nevertheless, Münkler finds the Fischer controversy "helpful in terms of political history" and sees "a positive effect of mistakes." It was necessary, says Münkler, for the Germans to turn to their history once again, for something to break open and for the national master narrative to give way to a critical consciousness.

sábado, 4 de janeiro de 2014

Alemanha anos 1920: a loucura da hiperinflacao e outras loucuras - book review

Bad Marks

‘The Downfall of Money,’ by Frederick Taylor


Albert Harlingue/Roger Viollet—Getty Images
German children playing with banknotes that have lost their value through inflation, circa 1919.


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Frederick Taylor’s “The Downfall of Money” promises, on its jacket, to deliver “an economic horror story.” A horror it was: We’ve all seen the photos from Germany with the wheelbarrows full of cash or the children playfully stacking bricks of worthless bills (by late 1923 the mark had deteriorated from a value of 4.2 to the dollar in 1914 to over 4 trillion). The monetary crisis was so traumatic that to this day, it renders the German people thoroughly allergic to price increases.

THE DOWNFALL OF MONEY

Germany’s Hyperinflation and the Destruction of the Middle Class
By Frederick Taylor
Illustrated. 416 pp. Bloomsbury Press. $30.
But despite its title, this book is primarily concerned not with money but with everything else the Germans were also concerned with from 1914 to about 1929: military strategy, starvation, assassinations (of people good and bad), putsches (fruitless and fruitful), foreign occupation, riots, strikes and pretty much every other permutation of anarchy and violence.
For the first 100 pages or so, Taylor, the author of “Dresden” and “The Berlin Wall,” gives us a highly detailed, and somewhat detoured, narrative of the years around World War I. There is little mention of monetary issues, save an occasional reference to the exchange rate. Taylor pays more attention to the economic issues of the 1920s, but even then what he really seems to want to write about is the general craziness that was Weimar Germany.
There is much engrossing craziness to cover. Many readers are no doubt familiar with the Treaty of Versailles’ war-guilt clause, which shifted blame for a pointless, expensive autopilot of a war entirely onto Germany and its allies. Fewer probably remember how that finger-pointing then ricocheted within Germany itself after the Kaiser was ousted and splintered groups of Communists, Social Democrats and far-right nationalists blamed one another for the humiliations of the war and its aftermath. Abused by the vengeful victors, the Germans turned to abusing (and slaughtering) themselves.
To be sure, Germany was not simply a victim deserving of sympathy. Taylor documents its plans to visit crushing indemnities and annexations upon its enemies had it prevailed in the war. Everyone, he argues repeatedly, behaved badly. And almost everyone borrowed way too much to bankroll this bad behavior, counting on the other guy’s losing in order to get back in the black. The United States, the main creditor to the other victors, comes off looking worse than Americans may care to remember. It was Washington’s refusal to forgive the Allies’ war debts, after all, that encouraged Britain and France to tighten the screws on the broke and psychically broken Germany (which was effectively paying French and British debts to the United States indirectly). As a result, Uncle Sam collected the nickname “Uncle Shylock.”
Only toward the end of the book are we introduced to the long-awaited hyperinflation. There Taylor details the less obvious ways in which dizzyingly high prices frayed the social fabric. Women couldn’t marry, for example, because their dowry savings had been inflated away. Lifestyle choices became strangely distorted by price changes; unlike food costs, opera ticket prices remained cheap because they were set by the state, encouraging consumption of entertainment instead of calories. Strikes and riots abounded — including, most memorably, a strike by Reich printing house workers when the government finally got serious about stamping out inflation. (If they weren’t regularly printing money, they were in danger of losing their jobs.)
There are, Taylor suggests, parallels between the profligate German welfare state of the 1920s and Germany’s European Union peers today. But he is frustratingly noncommittal about why the German government pursued the inflationary policies it did — and to what extent they were deliberate or just ad hoc. Uncertainty ruled not only Weimar economic policy, it seems, but also the historians’ assessments that followed.

Catherine Rampell is an economics reporter for The Times.
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segunda-feira, 30 de dezembro de 2013

O salario minimo vai destruir a competitividade da Alemanha? - PeterGumbel

Provavelmente. Em todo caso, os produtos e serviços alemães vão ficar mais caros e haverá desemprego.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Will a minimum wage destroy German jobs?



By Peter Gumbel
 Reuters, NOVEMBER 7, 2013
Germany has once again become the world’s favorite whipping boy, roundly criticized over the past few days by the U.S. Treasury, a topInternational Monetary Fund official and theEuropean Commission president, among others, for running record trade and current account surpluses that are supposedly detrimental to the European and global economy.
The arguments continue, with the Germans themselves saying that the surpluses are simply the happy result of the nation’s industrial competitiveness and don’t hurt anyone else. Lost in the debate, however, is what’s happening in Berlin right now. As Chancellor Angela Merkel seeks to form a new coalition government, she appears to be on the verge of throwing out some of the very policies that underpin the export boom of the past decade.
Most controversially, the new government to be formed is likely to introduce a minimum wage, a novelty for Germany, and a move that both symbolically and in reality would herald the end of the tough wage restraint that has characterized the past decade. A range of social policy changes, including a possible reduction in the retirement age, are also being discussed, as is higher government spending.
It’s not clear whether such shifts would provide the boost to domestic spending that the U.S. and Germany’s other critics are demanding. But their very prospect is sending chills down the spines of German business leaders. Ulrich Grillo, president of the Federation of German Industries, warns that “Germany can’t afford a grand coalition of election gifts,” and says that the politicians are acting as though Germany’s continuing prosperity is a given, rather than something that needs to be worked at.
Deutsche Bank says flatly in a research report that the proposed minimum wage is “the wrong policy choice.”
The shifts in economic policy are coming about as a result of political necessity. Merkel scoredstrongly in the September 22 parliamentary elections, but her Christian Democratic Union party didn’t win enough votes to govern alone. The party’s top officials have spent the past few weeks locked in negotiations with the opposition Social Democrats over the shape of a coalition government, and they have already given way on a number of points, including the introduction of a minimum wage of 8.5 euros per hour (about $11.50 at current exchange rates).
Germany is unusual in that it doesn’t currently have a national minimum wage; pay scales for different industries are traditionally fixed by management and union organizations, in regular rounds of negotiations. Two elements of the planned minimum wage are notable. The first is the level being proposed, which is 45 percent above the U.S. minimum wage — considerably higher than that in some other European countries such as Spain, although below France and the Netherlands. The Hans Böckler Stiftung’s Institute of Economic and Social Research has a handy guide to minimum wage rates around the world here.
The second notable element is its expected broad application, across the whole of Germany, East and West, and including new entrants to the job market. This amounts to a rollback of the stringent policies put in place by Merkel’s predecessor Gerhard Schröder, starting in 2002, at a time when the German economy was struggling to digest the impact of reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Schröder, a Social Democrat, worked together with the former head of human resources at Volkswagen, Peter Hartz, to devise policies that created jobs, in part through the introduction of low-paid “mini jobs” that were exempt from social security charges. These were designed to get hard-to-employ people  back into the workforce. The result has been spectacular: Germany’s current unemployment rate, of just over 5 percent, is half what it was a decade ago, and far below the 12.2 percent average jobless rate in the euro zone. And German productivity gains since then have far outstripped the modest rise in unit labor costs, propelling the current export boom.
Currently, about 12 percent of workers in Western Germany earn below 8.5 euros per hour, while in the eastern part, the figure is about one in four, according to research by the IWH institute in Halle.
Deutsche Bank is now predicting that the planned minimum wage would reverse some of the beneficial effect of the Hartz reforms and would likely increase labor costs generally, because the 8.5 euro level would be close to the median wage. The bank estimates that between 450,000 and one million jobs will be lost as a result.
In theory, the minimum wage would boost overall purchasing power, going some way to address the international criticism. But Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the IFO Institute for Economic Research in Munich, argues that it would merely push up the price of German goods and make them less competitive, without leading to a significant increase in consumption of imports. “There will be a bitter sobering up,” he warns.
For their part, advocates of the minimum wage argue that similarly dire gloom-and-doom scenario predicted in Britain back in 1998, when the government of Tony Blair introduced one, have failed to materialize. The British minimum wage is the equivalent of $10 per hour, below the planned German level. However, the British one is scaled so that apprentices and those under 21 receive substantially lower amounts.
The final package of policy measures to be adopted by the new German coalition is still under discussion. The Social Democrats are trying to reduce the statutory retirement age of 67 for some categories of workers, and there are ongoing talks about how to use a $40 billion surplus in the nation’s state-run retirement fund. The Social Democrats and some members of Merkel’s own party are arguing that it should be spent, while others say the compulsory levy on wages that is used to finance the fund should be reduced.
Merkel herself has said she won’t agree to policies that would jeopardize jobs. Still, whatever the eventual outcome, it’s already clear that Germany’s economic policy is in for some important changes. The U.S. Treasury and Germany’s other detractors should take note.
PHOTO: Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn, German Transport Minister Peter Ramsauer and Hesse’s Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (3rd-R) watch as German Chancellor Angela Merkel steps out of Volkswagen e-Golf car during the opening day of the Frankfurt Motor Show (IAA) in Frankfurt September 12, 2013. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach