Brazil Outlook
Friday 28 January, 11.00 - 12.00
World Economic Forum: http://www.weforum.org/s?s=Brazil
With a new government in place, what are the country’s domestic and international priorities in 2011?
The following dimensions will be addressed:
- Policy continuity versus new realities
- Macroeconomic challenges
- Foreign policy agenda
Key Points
• New President Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s first woman head of state, promises continuity.
• Brazil has figured out how to grow and decrease inequality at the same time.
• Inequality and infrastructure remain priorities.
• Brazil successfully weathered the economic crisis in part because it had the strength to take countercyclical measures for the first time in recent history.
• Monetary policy will stay on the same track that it has been on for the last 11 years.
Synopsis
Brazil’s first woman president, Dilma Rousseff, begins her term promising continuity and trying to maintain what most observers consider to be a virtuous circle of success. Notably, in recent years, the country managed to break with the old convention of expanding the pie before dividing it: Brazil has figured out how to grow and decrease inequality at the same time. The new administration plans to continue to battle inequality and to improve and add infrastructure – not in the least because the country will host the World Cup in 2014 and Rio de Janeiro the Olympics two years later.
Brazil has successfully weathered the economic crisis in part because its fiscal and monetary positions allowed it to take countercyclical measures for the first time in recent history. The National Development Bank (BNDES) reacted by increasing outlays, especially for investments in infrastructure. As the crisis winds down, the BNDES plans to retreat, to reduce its role and leave more space for private lenders.
Monetary policy will stay on the same track that it has been on for the last 11 years. The inflation target regime includes a floating exchange rate, accumulation of foreign reserves, and reasonably well adjusted public finances. The Central Bank’s mandate is to deliver monetary stability, which in the current climate means dealing with the copious flows of incoming capital. In that spirit, it has tightened financial and monetary conditions, and is keeping a steady eye on the inflation rate.
Part of the problem with capital flows to emerging market countries like Brazil is that they lack the capacity to absorb the massive influx. Foreign cash ends up in short-term instruments because there are not enough long-term opportunities available. Brazil has recently begun to provide incentives to encourage more investment in corporate bonds and other longer-term instruments.
In terms of foreign policy, Brazil will continue to strengthen ties to its South American neighbours and extend its global reach, without ignoring old ties with the United States, Europe and Japan. Rousseff has chosen Argentina for her first foreign visit as president, and she is scheduled to meet with US President Barack Obama in March. In recent years, Brazil has opened more than 40 embassies around the world, mainly in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia, and it will work to strengthen ties in those places. It will also work closely with other emerging market countries, notably China, India and South Africa, in a number of venues. The country continues to support reform of the United Nations and of the UN Security Council.
Participants:
Antonio De Aguiar Patriota, Minister of External Relations of Brazil
Luciano Coutinho, President, Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), Brazil
Frederico Fleury Curado, President and Chief Executive Officer, EMBRAER, Brazil; Global Agenda Council on Emerging Multinationals
Vikram Pandit, Chief Executive Officer, Citi, USA
Alexandre Tombini, President of the Central Bank of Brazil
Renato Augusto Villela, Secretary of State for Finance, Government of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Moderated by
Moisés Naím, Senior Associate, International Economics, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA; Global Agenda Council on Illicit Trade
Disclosures
This summary was prepared by William Hinchberger. The views expressed are those of certain participants in the discussion and do not necessarily reflect the views of all participants or of the World Economic Forum.
Copyright 2011 World Economic Forum
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of the World Economic Forum.
[Same link directs to the live discussion]
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sábado, 29 de janeiro de 2011
segunda-feira, 8 de novembro de 2010
Seminar: Brazil’s Foreign Policy - A Critical Appraisal, Washington
Seminar: Brazil’s Foreign Policy of Today and Tomorrow: A Critical Appraisal, November 16, Washington, DC
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The Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the Inter-American Dialogue and the Center for Latin American Issues at George Washington University Invite you to a discussion on
Brazil’s Foreign Policy of Today and Tomorrow: A Critical Appraisal
Tuesday, November 16, 2010 – 9 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 5th Floor Conference Room
RSVP (Acceptances only): james.hodges@wilsoncenter.org
Speakers: Roberto Abdenur, former Deputy Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to China and the United States; Sergio Amaral, former Minister of Development, Industry and Commerce, and former Ambassador to England and France; Marcos Azambuja, former Deputy Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to Argentina and France; Antonio Carlos Pereira, Editor, Opinion Page, O Estado de S. Paulo
Moderator: Paulo Sotero, Director of the Brazil Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center
Discussants: James Ferrer, Director, the GWU Center for Latin American Studies; Peter Hakim, President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue
For more information on the Brazil Institute, visit www.wilsoncenter.org\brazil
Woodrow Wilson Center – 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. – Washington, DC 20004
**************************
The Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the Inter-American Dialogue and the Center for Latin American Issues at George Washington University Invite you to a discussion on
Brazil’s Foreign Policy of Today and Tomorrow: A Critical Appraisal
Tuesday, November 16, 2010 – 9 a.m. to 11:30 a.m.
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 5th Floor Conference Room
RSVP (Acceptances only): james.hodges@wilsoncenter.org
Speakers: Roberto Abdenur, former Deputy Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to China and the United States; Sergio Amaral, former Minister of Development, Industry and Commerce, and former Ambassador to England and France; Marcos Azambuja, former Deputy Foreign Minister and former Ambassador to Argentina and France; Antonio Carlos Pereira, Editor, Opinion Page, O Estado de S. Paulo
Moderator: Paulo Sotero, Director of the Brazil Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center
Discussants: James Ferrer, Director, the GWU Center for Latin American Studies; Peter Hakim, President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue
For more information on the Brazil Institute, visit www.wilsoncenter.org\brazil
Woodrow Wilson Center – 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. – Washington, DC 20004
terça-feira, 19 de outubro de 2010
Brazilian Foreign Policy - Jaime Daremblum
Brazil's Post-Lula Foreign Policy
By Jaime Daremblum
Real Clear World, October 18, 2010
On October 31, Brazilians will elect a successor to President Lula da Silva, who is set to leave office with sky-high approval ratings and a record of historic domestic achievements. Under his watch, the country's poverty rate has plunged, and millions of Brazilians have entered the middle class, thanks in large part to the expansion of a cash-transfer program known as Bolsa Família. This year, Brazil's economy will grow by over 7 percent.
It is easy to see why Lula has become the most popular president in Brazilian history, and it is easy to see why either of his potential successors - Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party (the heavy favorite) and José Serra of the Social Democracy Party - will likely maintain Brazil's current mix of centrist economic policies.
In the realm of foreign affairs, however, Lula's record has been much less impressive. In June 2009, after the Iranian regime blatantly stole an election from the opposition and then unleashed thugs to attack student protestors, Lula claimed there was "no evidence" of electoral fraud. "I don't know anyone, other than the opposition, who has disagreed with the elections in Iran," he said.
A year later, his intervention in the Iranian nuclear standoff made it seem as if Brazil was siding with the mullahs against the West. Whatever Lula's intentions, people around the world saw photographs of the Brazilian president triumphantly raising arms with Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; celebrating a nuclear "deal" that proved utterly meaningless.
His role in the 2009 Honduran political crisis was also regrettable. Even after it had become apparent that the removal of President Manuel Zelaya was a constitutionally sanctioned defense of democracy, Lula continued to fan the flames by denouncing it as a military coup. Brazil still has not recognized the Honduran government of Porfirio Lobo, who won a free and fair election last November. "President Lobo has done everything he said he would do," U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared in June. "He provided political amnesty. He set up a truth commission. He has been very committed to pursuing a policy of reintegration."
By refusing to restore diplomatic relations with Tegucigalpa, Lula has endorsed the Hugo Chávez line that Lobo is an illegitimate president. His successor should renew ties with Honduras, whose government deserves the support of democrats everywhere.
The next Brazilian president should also reject Lula's approach to Cuba and Venezuela - an approach that has led him to excuse brutal human-rights violations. Earlier this year, after the death of a Cuban political prisoner, Lula effectively criticized anti-Castro hunger strikers and defended Fidel, his old friend. Lula has also cozied up to Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's Castro-wannabe. In an interview with Der Spiegel, he praised Chávez as "the best president of Venezuela in the last 100 years."
Meanwhile, Lula has displayed a troubling attitude toward Israel. This past March, during a trip to the Middle East, Lula declined to place a wreath at Theodor Herzl's Jerusalem grave - but he did travel to Ramallah and lay a wreath at Yasser Arafat's grave. "It is offensive that he laid a wreath at the grave of a terrorist, but not at the tomb of Zionism's visionary," a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official told the Jerusalem Post.
Lula's anti-Israel and pro-Arafat sentiments reflect the spirit of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which began in the 1950s as a legitimate anti-colonial association but was soon hijacked by Arafat, Castro and other Third World radicals. Brazil never officially joined the NAM, but it shared much of that organization's hostility toward the United States. Indeed, the country has a long history of irking the U.S. on high-profile diplomatic issues, such as the Nicaraguan civil war during the 1980s. As Newsweek correspondent Mac Margolis wrote last May, "Exacerbating Brazil's prickly foreign policy is a struggle within its foreign service, where a strain of anti-Americanism dating from the Cold War still runs deep."
Expunging the vestiges of that anti-Americanism should be a top priority of the next Brazilian government. Rather than cozying up to dictators in Iran and Cuba, Brazil should focus on stimulating positive cooperation among its fellow rising democracies, such as Mexico, India, Indonesia and South Africa. It is difficult to become a constructive, responsible actor in global affairs when your president is cavorting with the likes of Ahmadinejad and Castro.
While Brazil's underperforming education system remains a significant long-term weakness, its fast-growing economic power - fueled by its massive mineral and agricultural wealth - has presented with it an enormous opportunity to exert greater influence on international politics. Lula failed to make the most of that opportunity. Hopefully, his successor will do better.
Jaime Daremblum, who served as Costa Rica's ambassador to the United States from 1998 to 2004, is director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the Hudson Institute
By Jaime Daremblum
Real Clear World, October 18, 2010
On October 31, Brazilians will elect a successor to President Lula da Silva, who is set to leave office with sky-high approval ratings and a record of historic domestic achievements. Under his watch, the country's poverty rate has plunged, and millions of Brazilians have entered the middle class, thanks in large part to the expansion of a cash-transfer program known as Bolsa Família. This year, Brazil's economy will grow by over 7 percent.
It is easy to see why Lula has become the most popular president in Brazilian history, and it is easy to see why either of his potential successors - Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party (the heavy favorite) and José Serra of the Social Democracy Party - will likely maintain Brazil's current mix of centrist economic policies.
In the realm of foreign affairs, however, Lula's record has been much less impressive. In June 2009, after the Iranian regime blatantly stole an election from the opposition and then unleashed thugs to attack student protestors, Lula claimed there was "no evidence" of electoral fraud. "I don't know anyone, other than the opposition, who has disagreed with the elections in Iran," he said.
A year later, his intervention in the Iranian nuclear standoff made it seem as if Brazil was siding with the mullahs against the West. Whatever Lula's intentions, people around the world saw photographs of the Brazilian president triumphantly raising arms with Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; celebrating a nuclear "deal" that proved utterly meaningless.
His role in the 2009 Honduran political crisis was also regrettable. Even after it had become apparent that the removal of President Manuel Zelaya was a constitutionally sanctioned defense of democracy, Lula continued to fan the flames by denouncing it as a military coup. Brazil still has not recognized the Honduran government of Porfirio Lobo, who won a free and fair election last November. "President Lobo has done everything he said he would do," U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared in June. "He provided political amnesty. He set up a truth commission. He has been very committed to pursuing a policy of reintegration."
By refusing to restore diplomatic relations with Tegucigalpa, Lula has endorsed the Hugo Chávez line that Lobo is an illegitimate president. His successor should renew ties with Honduras, whose government deserves the support of democrats everywhere.
The next Brazilian president should also reject Lula's approach to Cuba and Venezuela - an approach that has led him to excuse brutal human-rights violations. Earlier this year, after the death of a Cuban political prisoner, Lula effectively criticized anti-Castro hunger strikers and defended Fidel, his old friend. Lula has also cozied up to Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's Castro-wannabe. In an interview with Der Spiegel, he praised Chávez as "the best president of Venezuela in the last 100 years."
Meanwhile, Lula has displayed a troubling attitude toward Israel. This past March, during a trip to the Middle East, Lula declined to place a wreath at Theodor Herzl's Jerusalem grave - but he did travel to Ramallah and lay a wreath at Yasser Arafat's grave. "It is offensive that he laid a wreath at the grave of a terrorist, but not at the tomb of Zionism's visionary," a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official told the Jerusalem Post.
Lula's anti-Israel and pro-Arafat sentiments reflect the spirit of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which began in the 1950s as a legitimate anti-colonial association but was soon hijacked by Arafat, Castro and other Third World radicals. Brazil never officially joined the NAM, but it shared much of that organization's hostility toward the United States. Indeed, the country has a long history of irking the U.S. on high-profile diplomatic issues, such as the Nicaraguan civil war during the 1980s. As Newsweek correspondent Mac Margolis wrote last May, "Exacerbating Brazil's prickly foreign policy is a struggle within its foreign service, where a strain of anti-Americanism dating from the Cold War still runs deep."
Expunging the vestiges of that anti-Americanism should be a top priority of the next Brazilian government. Rather than cozying up to dictators in Iran and Cuba, Brazil should focus on stimulating positive cooperation among its fellow rising democracies, such as Mexico, India, Indonesia and South Africa. It is difficult to become a constructive, responsible actor in global affairs when your president is cavorting with the likes of Ahmadinejad and Castro.
While Brazil's underperforming education system remains a significant long-term weakness, its fast-growing economic power - fueled by its massive mineral and agricultural wealth - has presented with it an enormous opportunity to exert greater influence on international politics. Lula failed to make the most of that opportunity. Hopefully, his successor will do better.
Jaime Daremblum, who served as Costa Rica's ambassador to the United States from 1998 to 2004, is director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the Hudson Institute
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