O euro pode ser salvo? Livro de um heterodoxo pessimista - Malcolm Sawyer

Este economista europeu, que define a si mesmo como um "economista heterodoxo" -- ou seja, do time da anti-austeridade -- afirma que o euro vem falhando desde a sua concepção, e que essas falhas de desenho intensificam a crise da Eurozona, condenando-a a uma "austeridade auto-derrotada".
Talvez ele prefira uma "self-sustaining expediture", como parecem preferir quase todos os economistas desse clube, esquecendo-se de examinar quem vai pagar a festa. Para ele, o euro não vai se salvar porque existem obstáculos políticos e ideológicos enormes, que certamente ele atribui à tal de austeridade. Ele só não diz como é que conseguiram restabelecer o equilíbrio fiscal Espanha e Portugal, e como a Grécia se safou do abismo (talvez ele prefira que os alemães continuem sustentando os anti-austeridade.
Não pretendo comprar o livro, nem com desconto, assim que quem preferir examinar o dito cujo pode aproveitar o meu código de desconto abaixo indicado.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

 Social Europe Ltd.
Dear reader
we would like to draw your attention to a new publication by our partners from Polity Press.

The economies of the Eurozone countries are plagued by multiple crises, which cast major doubts over the future of the Euro. In this engaging new book, leading heterodox economist Malcolm Sawyer argues that the entire policy framework of the Eurozone was fundamentally flawed from its foundation. He shows how these ‘design faults’ intensified the effects of the crisis, made an effective response to the crash almost impossible, and are now locking in perpetual self-defeating austerity.
Sawyer proposes a bold alternative agenda for reviving the continent’s economic prosperity and saving the Euro, centred on a Federal fiscal policy and deep reform of the European Central Bank. He argues, however, that these solutions would require a fundamental transformation that is almost certain to encounter huge ideological and political obstacles. He therefore concludes that Europe faces a bleak economic future, blighted by low growth, high unemployment and social division.
This major contribution to one of the key economic and political issues of our time will be essential reading for everyone interested in Europe’s future.
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O euro tem futuro? A UE tem futuro?: um burocrata do BCE questiona - Ad Van Riet

Parece que os tecnocratas do BCE, que deveriam ser todos economistas, e passar a maior parte do tempo fazendo exercícios econométricos sobre o meio circulante europeu, estão preocupados com a política da coordenação macroeconômica na UE.
Vários economistas americanos -- tanto conservadores, como "aloprados", como Joseph Stiglitz, por exemplo -- sempre tiveram dúvidas quanto à viabilidade do euro num ambiente em que aspectos básicos da fiscalidade, das contas nacionais (dívida pública, déficits orçamentários, etc.) e dos (des)equilíbrios externos (refletidos nos BPs), não são coordenados uniformemente, e sequer possuem a transparência requerida.
O dólar nãoé exatamente uma moeda sólida, dados os comportamentos erráticos tanto do governo quanto do Fed, mas na falta de alternativa melhor, ele se mantém como a grande moeda de reserva.
Será que o euro algum dia vai ser um concorrente credível ao dólar, ou vai ser ultrapassado em algum momento pelo yuan chinês, quando este se tornar moeda internacional e passar a integrar o SDR do FMI?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

"Safeguarding the Euro as a Currency Beyond the State"
    ECB Occasional Paper No. 173

 Contact:  AD VAN RIET
             European Central Bank (ECB), Tilburg
             University
   Email:  ad.van_riet@ecb.int
Auth-Page:  http://ssrn.com/author=508520

Full Text:  http://ssrn.com/abstract=2797259

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the debate on the longer-term requirements for safeguarding the euro as a currency beyond the state that is anchored through collective governance instead of a central government. The strengthening of EU economic and
financial governance in the wake of the euro area crisis goes a long way towards creating the minimum conditions for a more perfect EMU. At the same time, the current principle of nation states coordinating their sovereignty to ‘do whatever is required’ to stabilise the euro area as a whole rather than sharing their sovereignty in common institutions to achieve this common objective has its limitations. Challenges in this context relate inter alia to the effectiveness of market discipline and reinforced economic policy surveillance, the requirement of a truly single financial system, the demand for eurobonds and a euro area fiscal capacity, and the transnational democracy that should legitimate EMU decision-making based on common values. To safeguard the euro as a currency beyond the state, euro area countries should consider pooling their national sovereignty over
a wider range of EMU-related policy areas, as necessary to achieve more effective risk control and more efficient risk sharing.

Preocupado com o cambio? Aqui uma licao completa, com exemplos do dolar e do euro - Frank Shostak (Mises Daily)

With Currency, Everything Is Relative
by Frank Shostak
Mises Daily, April 27, 2016

At the end of March the price of the euro in terms of US dollars closed at 1.1378. This was an increase of 4.7 percent from February when it increased by 0.3 percent. The yearly growth rate of the price of the euro in US dollar terms jumped to 6 percent in March from minus 2.9 percent in February.


What Determines a Currency’s Value?

According to most experts currency rates of exchange appear to be moving in response to so many factors that it makes it almost impossible to ascertain where the rate of exchange is likely to be headed.

Rather than paying attention to the multitude of factors, though, it is more sensible to focus on the essential variable.

As far as the currency rate of exchange determination is concerned, this variable is the relative changes in the purchasing power of various monies.

It is the relative purchasing power of various monies that sets the underlying rate of exchange.

A price of a basket of goods is the amount of money paid for the basket. We can also say that the amount of money paid for a basket of goods is the purchasing power of money with respect to the basket of goods.

If in the US the price of a basket of goods is one dollar, and in Europe an identical basket of goods is sold for 2 euros then the rate of exchange between the US dollar and the euro must be two euros per one dollar.

The Money Supply and Purchasing Power

An important factor in setting the purchasing power of money is the supply of money. If over time the rate of growth in the US money supply exceeds the rate of growth of the European money supply, all other things being equal, this will put pressure on the US dollar.

Since a price of a good is the amount of money per good, this now means that the prices of goods in dollar terms will increase faster than prices in euro terms, all other things being equal.

Price Changes Do Not Occur All at Once, or Evenly

Changes in a local money supply affect its general purchasing power with a time lag, and this means that changes in relative money supply affect the currency rate of exchange also with a time lag.

When money is injected into the economy it starts with a particular market before it goes to other markets. This is the reason for the lag.

When it enters a particular market it pushes the price of a good in this market higher. More money is spent on given goods than before.

This in turn means that past and present information about the money supply can be employed in ascertaining likely future moves in the currency rate of exchange.

The Demand for Money

Another important factor in driving the purchasing power of money and the currency rate of exchange is the demand for money. For instance, with an increase in the production of goods the demand for money will follow suit.

The demand for the services of the medium of exchange will increase since more goods must now be exchanged. As a result, for a given supply of money, the purchasing power of money will increase. Less money will be chasing more goods now.

Various factors, such as the interest rate differential, can cause a deviation of the currency rate of exchange from the level dictated by relative purchasing power. Such deviations, however, will set corrective forces in motion.

The Role of Central Banks

We saw earlier that if the price of a basket of goods in the US is one dollar and in Europe two euros, then according to the purchasing power framework the currency rate of exchange should be one dollar for two euros.

But, let us now say that the Fed raises its policy interest rate while the European central bank keeps its policy rate unchanged.

As a result of the widening in the interest rate differential between the US and the euro zone, the resulting increase in the demand for dollars pushes the exchange rate in the market toward one dollar for three euros.

This means that the dollar is now overvalued when compared to the relative purchasing power of the dollar versus the euro.

Demand for a Currency Is Affected by Attempts to Gain from Arbitrage

As long as this situation endures, it will pay to sell the basket of goods for dollars, then exchange dollars for euros, and then buy the basket of goods with euros — thus making a clear arbitrage gain. For example, individuals could sell a basket of goods for one dollar, exchange the one dollar for three euros, and then exchange three euros for 1.5 baskets, gaining 0.5 of a basket of goods.

The fact that the holder of dollars will increase his/her demand for euros in order to profit from the arbitrage will then make euros more expensive in terms of dollars — pushing the exchange rate back in the direction of one dollar for two euros. An arbitrage will always be set in motion if the rate of exchange deviates, for whatever reasons, from the underlying rate of exchange.

All of these factors continue to affect the relative value of the US dollar to the euro. Relative to the euro, however, the US dollar is growing in value as the euro declines. After closing at 5.5 percent in June 2014, the money growth differential between the US and the euro zone fell to minus 4.8 percent in February this year. This means that relative to the euro zone, US money growth has weakened significantly. From a monetary perspective, this suggests the US dollar will continue to increase in value against the euro in the months ahead, all other things being equal.