Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.
terça-feira, 9 de fevereiro de 2016
Paulo R. Almeida na Amazon books: um abuso e um roubo...
A era de "depressao" permanente, ou da Grande Estagnacao? - Robert Romano
Vamos ver...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Is the era of economic growth ending?
By Robert Romano
Americans for Limited Government, February 9, 2016
The economy of Japan has not grown nominally in 20 years, according to data published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan.
Nor has its population aged 15 to 64 —those in the prime working years of their lives — which has declined from 86.9 million in 1995 to 76.7 million today.
Inflation has barely budged, too, averaging just 1.1 percent a year the past 20 years, even with a torrent of monetary expansion by the Bank of Japan.
Interest rates have also declined on a long-term basis, from an average of 3.4 percent in 1995 to just 0.04 percent today. Those may even go negative in the near future, chief bond strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co., Kazuhiko Sano, predicts. Sano accurately called the rate dropping below 0.5 percent, 0.25 percent and 0.1 percent.
Just imagine that. For the privilege of lending money to the Japanese government, it costs banks and investors money. The only way it might pay to buy the bonds is in an outright deflationary environment, prices declined even faster than the interest rates. But even then, keeping cash would seem to be a better deal.
It all coincides with the Bank of Japan charging banks for excess reserves with a negative interest rate.
Is the Bank of Japan forecasting deflation in Japan? Certainly wouldn't be the first time.
But in a broader context, do the rapidly falling interest rates project a no-growth, or slow-growth environment?
Certainly something to question over here in the U.S., where the economy has not grown above 4 percent since 2000, and not above 3 percent since 2005, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As for 2015, it came in at a tepid 2.4 percent growth.
The average annual growth from 2006 to 2015 was 1.41 percent, the worst decade since the Great Depression.
U.S. 10-year treasuries stand at just 1.75 percent.
The consumer price index only increased 0.7 percent in 2015.
The working age population in the U.S. has certainly been slowing, and will be growing at an even slower pace for the next few decades.
The labor force participation rate for 16- to 64-year-olds has not been faring much better, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It peaked in 1997 at 77.37 percent and has dropped to 72.61 percent in 2015, accounting for 9.7 million people who otherwise might have been in the labor force since then but are not.
Note that excludes those of retirement age, correcting for drops in labor participation associated with Baby Boomers retiring. Yes, that has reduced the participation rate some, but so has the working age population exodus from the work force too.
What emerges is a spiral of slower growth, less asset price appreciation, lower interest rates and fewer jobs.
What's to like?
But worse still, could this point to a longer trend where the global economy itself is slowing down until, one day, it stops growing all together?
Is the era of growth ending? Never mind the degrowth movement.
Perhaps Japan and Europe, too, which is in a similar stagnation, are just windows into the future.
What is most alarming, however, may be the declines the U.S. is seeing in labor participation. Slower growth might be seen as a benign indicator if it still proportionately produced the same number of jobs.
But it is not, with the 16- to 64-year-old labor participation rate dropping to levels not seen since 1981 when women were still entering the work force. Slower growth has been toxic.
All this, after the U.S. has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in college educations with students with tens of thousands of dollars of debt predicated on the idea that there would be enough jobs for everyone. Well, there aren't, every year it keeps getting worse and we need to start asking ourselves why.
Robert Romano is the senior editor of Americans for Limited Government.
A Parceria Trans-Pacifica: uma analise do Congressional Research Service (2016)
Energias verdes na America do Sul - Joana Castro Pereira (Lusiada)
Green Energy Integration in South America: a winding path
Joana Castro Pereira, Professora Auxiliar da Universidade Lusíada do Norte (Porto)
in: Lusíada. Política Internacional e Segurança, n.º 12 (2015)
Neste link:
http://revistas.lis.ulusiada.pt/index.php/lpis/article/viewFile/2265/2389
segunda-feira, 8 de fevereiro de 2016
Chilcote's book: interesting but too costly, even used...
Intellectuals and the Search for National Identity in Twentieth-Century Brazil
O Real vai continuar caindo, diz o Financial Times
Joe Leahy and John Paul Rathbone
Financial Times, February 8, 2016
Currency has further to fall given the state of the economy, analysts say
When Dilma Rousseff attended the 2016 opening session of Brazil's congress this week, she appealed to lawmakers to approve tax increases to tackle a widening gap in the country's public finances.
Most critically, the president called for the reintroduction of a tax on financial transactions, known as the CPMF, that was abandoned in 2007 after objections from business. Opposition congressmen booed her.
But with Brazil reporting a budget deficit last year that was the biggest among emerging economies except for Saudi Arabia at over 10 per cent, unpopular measures are needed to save the country from a deepening fiscal hole, analysts say.
Indeed, some economists argue that given Brazil's growing political and budget crises, its currency, the real, should be trading at closer to R$5 against the dollar than today's level of around R$4. Only intervention by the central bank with its large reserves and Brazil's high interest rates are keeping hedge funds at bay, they say.
"Most of us think that if it were just based on fundamentals, the real should be closer to R$5 to the dollar not R$4," said a senior banker with a foreign institution in São Paulo.
Ms Rousseff made a rare appearance in congress because she will need all the support she can get in 2016. Not only is the economy heading into its worst recession in more than a century but lawmakers will resume an impeachment process against her after the annual carnival festivities end next week.
A central bank survey of economists shows most predicting gross domestic product will contract by more than 3 per cent this year, compounding what is expected to have been a more than 3 per cent fall in 2015. They are also forecasting inflation of 7.3 per cent, above the central bank's target range of 4.5 per cent plus or minus 2 percentage points and carrying on from last year's blowout rise in prices of 10.7 per cent.
The survey also shows economists predicting the real will end the year at R$4.35 to the dollar compared with about R$3.90 on Wednesday.
However, even though a rate of R$4.35 would be a record nominal low for the currency, it could have much further to fall, economists say. In spite of the much more negative economic situation today, Brazil's currency remains stronger against the dollar in real terms than when it last hit record lows in 2002. At that time, the currency was struck by pessimism over the election of a leftwing firebrand president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who later turned out to be more market-friendly than expected.
On a real effective exchange rate basis, the real today is trading at about 15-25 per cent below its historical average while in 2002 it fell as much as 50 per cent below its average. Indeed, the currency's "equilibrium" - the level at which it would represent fair value in real terms - would be R$5.45 if it were allowed to float without intervention, said Marcos Casarin, economist with Oxford Economics.
"This [R$5.45 to the dollar] is where the model says OK now your external adjustment is done and now this rate will ensure you have some capacity for your export industry to be competitive in external markets," Mr Casarin said.
This fact has not been lost on hedge fund managers. Just before the Christmas break, Brazilian hedge fund, Verde Asset Management, led by Luis Stulhberger, known for his long history of market outperformance, said in a report it saw the currency as overvalued.
"The time will come to have much higher exposure in US dollars [versus the real]," Verde said. "We remain very attentive."
The obstacle facing hedge funds is the prospect of central bank intervention to defend the currency. Brazil has one of the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world at about $369bn. Betting against the real by going short is also expensive given Brazil's high interest rates, with the central bank's benchmark Selic rate at 14.25 per cent.
"I think it [the real] will be held back by central bank intervention and also by those fat interest rates they offer, which discourage shorting of the real," said Mr Casarin of Oxford Economics.
Another factor potentially helping the real is a collapse in trade, with imports contracting faster than exports in recent months. This has generated a positive trade balance - a factor that could curb depreciation of the Brazilian currency, Nomura said in a report.
However, most analysts say that even if the real can withstand Brazil's internal problems, it is extremely vulnerable to an external event, such as a significant devaluation of the renminbi. China is one of Brazil's most important trading partners. Such a shock could open the currency up for attack.
"There are a lot of mines along the way, external and internal, so the real, as much as it has moved down, probably hasn't seen its bottom yet," said Jorge Mariscal, emerging markets chief investment officer with UBS Wealth Management.