January 2018. 240 pages.
English Version.
Paperback.
ISBN: 978-1-4648-1046-6
Price: $39.95
THE CHANGING WEALTH OF
NATIONS 2018:
Building a Sustainable
Future
Edited by Glenn-Marie
Lange, Quentin Wodon, and Kevin Carey
Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018
Countries
regularly track gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of their economic
progress, but not wealth—the assets such as
infrastructure, forests, minerals, and human capital that produce GDP. In
contrast, corporations routinely report on both their income and assets to
assess their economic health and prospects for the future. Wealth accounts
allow countries to take stock of their assets to monitor the sustainability
of development, an urgent concern today for all countries.
The
Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future coversnational wealth for 141 countries over
20 years (1995–2014) as
the sum of produced capital, 19 types of natural capital, net foreign assets,
and human capital overall as well as by gender and type of employment. Great
progress has been made in estimating wealth since the first volume, Where
Is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century, was
published in 2006. New data substantially improve estimates of natural capital,
and, for the first time,
human capital is measured by using household surveys to estimate lifetime
earnings.
The
Changing Wealth of Nations 2018 begins with a review of global and regional
trends in wealth over the past two decades and provides examples of how wealth accounts can be used for the
analysis of development patterns. Several chapters discuss the new work on human
capital and its application in development policy. The book then tackles
elements of natural capital that are not yet fully incorporated in the wealth
accounts: air pollution, marine fisheries, and ecosystems. This book targets policy makers but will engage anyone committed to
building a sustainable future for the planet.
Contents
Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xv
Abbreviations xvii
Executive Summary 1
Key Findings 1
Why Should We Measure Wealth? 2
What Is
New in This Version of The Changing Wealth of Nations? 3 Global and
Regional Trends from 1995 to 2014 5
Natural Capital and Development 8
Human
Capital: Driver of Development 14
Organization of the Book 19
Summing Up 21
Notes
22
References 22
Chapter 1. Estimating the Wealth of
Nations 25
Main Messages 25
Complementary Measures: GDP and
National Wealth 25
How We Measure Wealth 27
Wealth, Adjusted Net Saving, and
Sustainability 30
The Role of Institutions, Governance, and Social Capital 33
A
Roadmap for the Book 33
Summing Up and Future Research 36
Annex 1A: Changes in
Methodology and Data Sources for the Wealth Accounts 38 Notes 40
References 40
Chapter 2. Richer or Poorer? Global and
Regional Trends in Wealth from 1995 to 2014 43
Main Messages 43
Introduction 44
Trends in Global
Wealth 44
Regional Trends in Low- and Middle-Income Countries 49 Convergence in
the Wealth of Nations 55
Savings and Changes in National Wealth 60
Conclusion
63
Annex 2A: Countries Classi ed by Income Group and Region 64 Annex 2B:
Regional Trends in Adjusted Net Saving 65
Note 68
References 68
Chapter 3. Wealth Accounts, Adjusted Net
Saving, and Diversi ed Development in Resource-Rich African Countries 69
Main Messages 69
Introduction 70
Two Approaches to
Measuring Investments and Sustainability 71 Trends in ANS in Sub-Saharan Africa
73
Comparing Adjusted Net Saving and Changes in Wealth 75
Case Studies: Ghana
and Niger 77
Conclusion 82
Note 84
References 84
Chapter 4. Expanding Measures of
Productivity to Include Natural Capital 85
Main Messages 85
Introduction 86
Recent Work on MFP Growth by the OECD 87
Growth Accounting for Measuring MFP Growth 88
Empirical Applications to Selected Petroleum Producers
90
Conclusions 92
Annex 4A: Understanding How Including Natural
Resources as Factors of Production Affects the MFP Calculation 93
Notes 94 References 94
Chapter 5. The Carbon Wealth of Nations:
From Rents to Risks 97
Main Messages 97 Introduction 97
Carbon Wealth of
Nations 99
Carbon Risk 102
Four Challenges for Carbon-Rich
Nations 103 Conclusion 110
Notes 111
References 112
Chapter 6. Human Capital and the Wealth
of Nations: Global Estimates and Trends 115
Main Messages 115
Introduction 116
Measuring Human
Capital Wealth 117 Estimates of Human Capital Wealth 121 Conclusion 131
Notes
132
References 132
Chapter 7. Gains in Human Capital
Wealth: What Growth Models Tell Us 135
Main Messages 135
Introduction 135
Measures of Human
Capital Wealth 137 Convergence in Human Capital Wealth? 139 Modeling Human
Capital Wealth Per Capita 141 Summary Statistics 143
Estimation Results 145
Conclusion
147
Note 148
References 148
Chapter 8. Intangible Capital as the
Engine for Development in Morocco 151
Main Messages 151
Introduction 152
Trends in Morocco’s
Wealth 153
Morocco 2040: Building Human Capital 157 Morocco 2040: Institutions
and Governance 164 Conclusion 166
Notes 168
References 168
Chapter 9. Air Pollution: Impact on
Human Health and Wealth 171
Main Messages 171
Introduction 171
Air Pollution
Incidence and Impact across the Globe 173
The Economic Costs of Air Pollution 178
Recommendations for the Way Forward: Improving the
Measure of Pollution Losses for Human Capital 184
Annex 9A: Valuing the Cost of Air Pollution in the
Adjusted Net Saving Indicator 185 Notes 186
References 187
Chapter 10. Subsidies Reduce Marine
Fisheries Wealth 189
Main Messages 189
Introduction 190
State of Global Marine Fisheries 192
Annex 10A: Maximum Sustainable Yield, Maximum Economic
Yield, and How Subsidies Can Create Negative Rents 195
Notes 196 References 196
Chapter 11. Remote Sensing and Modeling
to Fill the Gap in “Missing” Natural Capital 199
Main Messages 199
Introduction 199
Biophysical Quanti cation of Ecosystem Services 201
Guidelines for Data and Models in Supporting Wealth
Accounting for Natural Capital 205
Economic Valuation for Wealth Accounting 206 Note 207
References
207
Appendix A. Summary of Methodology and
Data Sources 211
Total Wealth 211
Natural Capital
Produced Capital
Net Foreign Assets
219 Human Capital 220 Adjusted Net Saving 222 Notes 223
References 223
Appendix B. Per Capita Wealth for 2014
225
Boxes
. ES.1 Wealth Accounting and the
Sustainable Development Goals 4
. ES.2 Renewables, Nonrenewables, and
the Challenge of Development 11
212 219
. ES.3 The Carbon Wealth of Nations at
Risk 14
. ES.4 Using Human Capital Data for
Policy: A Summary of the Companion Volume 15
. ES.5 Intangible Capital and Diversi
cation as the Engine for Development in Morocco 20
. 1.1 Measuring Wealth in Purchasing
Power Parity Terms 30
. 1.2 Savings and Changes in Wealth 32
2.1 Renewables, Nonrenewables, and the Challenge of
Diversi cation 51
. 3.1 Oil Revenues, Electoral Cycles,
and Adjusted Net Saving in Ghana 79
. 3.2 Principles of Managing Natural
Resource Revenues: Is a Fund Enough? 83
. 5.1 Uncertainties around Carbon
Wealth Estimates 102
. 5.2 Climate Strategies of
Carbon-Dependent Countries 109
6.1 Human Capital: Wealth, by Type of Employment 119
8.1 Evaluation of the Impact of Public Policies on
Gender Inequality and Growth in Morocco 163
10.1 Mauritania: Where Fisheries Capital Really Counts
191
Figures
. ES.1 Shares of Global Wealth, by
Income Group, 1995, 2005, and 2014 6
. ES.2 Changes in Total Wealth and Per
Capita Wealth, 1995–2014 7
. ES.3
SharesofRenewableandNonrenewableNaturalCapitalinTotalWealth,by
Region,1995 and 2014 11
. ES.4 Change in Per Capita Value of
Forest and Agricultural Land, 1995–2014 12
. ES.5 Annual Growth Rates in Human
Capital Wealth Per Capita, 1995–2014 (%) 16
. ES.6 Male Share in Human Capital
Wealth, 2014 17
. ES.7 Self-Employed Share in Human
Capital Wealth, 2014 17
. ES.8 Human Capital Wealth Per Capita
and GDP Per Capita 18
. ES.9 Convergence in Human Capital
Wealth Per Capita, by Gender
. 2.1 Distribution of Global Wealth,
by Income Group, 2014 46
. 2.2 Composition of Wealth, by Income
Group, 2014 48
. 2.3 Contribution to Growth of
Wealth, by Type of Asset, 1995–2014
. 2.4 Regional Composition of Wealth,
1995 and 2014 51
19
49
. 2.5 Shares of Renewable and
Nonrenewable Natural Capital in Total Wealth, by
Region,1995 and 2014 53
. 2.6 Change in Per Capita Value of
Forest and Agricultural Land, 1995 to 2014 54
. 2.7 Changes in Total Wealth and Per
Capita Wealth, 1995 to 2014 56
. 2.8 Convergence in the Wealth of
Nations Per Capita, 1995 and 2014 57
. 2.9 Growth in the Main Components of
the Wealth of Nations, 1995–2014 58
. 2.10 Procedure for Estimating
Adjusted Net Saving 61
. 2.11 Adjusted Net Saving in Resource-Rich
Countries, Average 2011–15 62
. 2.12 Adjusted Net Saving, by Region,
1995–2015 63
. 2B.1 Adjusted Net Saving for East
Asia and Paci c, 1995–2015 65
. 2B.2 Adjusted Net Saving for South
Asia, 1995–2015 65
. 2B.3 Adjusted Net Saving for
Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995–2015 66
. 2B.4 Adjusted Net Saving for Latin
America and the Caribbean, 1995–2015 66
. 2B.5 Adjusted Net Saving for Europe
and Central Asia, 1995–2015 67
. 2B.6 Adjusted Net Saving for the Middle
East and North Africa, 1995–2015 67
. 3.1 Procedure for Estimating
Adjusted Net Saving 71
. 3.2 Trends in Adjusted Net Saving
for Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995–2015 73
. 3.3 Adjusted Net Saving and Change
in Wealth 76
. 4.1 Comparing MFP Growth Measured
Excluding and Including Natural Resources, Selected Petroleum Producers, 2010
91
. 4.2 Gabon, MFP Growth Rate with and
without the Inclusion of Natural Resources, 1997–2014 92
. 5.1 Fossil Fuel Wealth, by Country,
2014 104
. 5.2 Fossil Fuel Assets Compared with
Government Revenues, by Country, 2010–14 105
. 5.3 Time to Depletion of Oil
Reserves, 2014 106
. 5.4 Adjusted Net Saving and
Nonrenewable Resource Rents 110
. 6.1 Annual Growth Rates in Human
Capital Wealth Per Capita, 1995–2014 124
. 6.2 Male Share in Human Capital
Wealth, 2014 126
. 6.3 Self-Employed Share in Human
Capital Wealth, 2014 127
. 6.4 Human Capital Wealth Per Capita
and GDP Per Capita 131
7.1 Convergence in Human Capital Wealth Per Capita, by
Gender 140
. 8.1 Components of Morocco’s Wealth
Per Capita, 2005 and 2014 154
. 8.2 Sources of Wealth in Morocco and
Comparator Countries, 2014 155
. 8.3 Enrollment Rates in Preprimary
Education 158
. 8.4 Under-Five Stunting Rate and GDP
Per Capita 159
. 8.5 Shares of Human Capital, by
Gender, 2014 161
. 8.6 Shares of Human Capital, by Type
of Employment, 2014 164
. 8.7 Degree of Social Trust, Morocco
and Comparators, 2014 165
. 8.8 Governance Indicators, Morocco
and Comparators, 2015 165
. 9.1 Leading Fatal Risk Factors
Globally, 2015 174
. 9.2 Population Reliant on Solid
Fuels, 1990–2015 175
. 9.3 Premature Deaths from Ambient PM2.5 Pollution,
by Region, 1990 and 2015 176
. 9.4 Premature Deaths from Household
Air Pollution, by Region, 1990 and 2015 177
. 9.5 Age Pro le of Premature
Mortality from Air Pollution, by Region, 2015 177
. 9.6 Global Labor Income Losses from
Ambient PM2.5 and Household Air Pollution, 1995–2015 179
. 9.7 Annual Labor Income Losses from
Air Pollution, by Region, 2015 180
. 9.8 Average Annual Change in Labor
Income Losses from Air Pollution, by Region, 1995–2015 181
. 9.9 Labor Income Losses from Air
Pollution, by Income Group, 2015 181
. 9.10 Age Pro le of Labor Income
Losses from Air Pollution, by Region, 2015 182
. 9.11 Average Annual Change in Losses
from Household Air Pollution in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 1995–2015, versus
Income Level in 2015 183
9.12 Average Annual Change in Losses from Ambient PM2.5,
1995–2015, versus Income Level in 2015 184
B10.1.1 Where Is the Wealth of Mauritania? 191
. 10.1 Trends in Global Marine Catch,
1950–2012 192
. 10.2 State of Global Marine Fish
Stocks, 1974–2013 193
10A.1 Catch, Fishing Effort, and Rents 195
Maps
ES.1 Percent Growth in Total Wealth Per Capita,
1995–2014 7
2.1 Percent Growth in Total Wealth Per Capita, 1995–2014 56
5.1
Fossil Fuel Rent as a Percentage of GDP, by Country, 2014 100
9.1 Mean Annual
Concentrations of Ambient PM2.5 Pollution, 2015 175
10.1 Where Fisheries Contribute to the Wealth of
Nations 194
Tables
ES.1 Wealth, by Type of Asset and Region, 2014 8
BES.6.1
Wealth Per Capita in Morocco and Comparator Countries 20
B1.1.1 Alternative Measures of GDP Per Capita in
China, 2014
30
. 2.1 Wealth and Population, by Income
Group, 1995–2014 45
. 2.2 Global Wealth, by Type of Asset,
1995 and 2014 47
. 2.3 Trends in Wealth Per Capita in
Low- and Middle-Income Countries, by Region,
1995–2014 50
. 2.4 Land Cover for Forest, Crops,
Pasture, and Protected Areas in Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 1995 and 2014
53
2A.1 Number of Countries in the Wealth Accounting
Database, by Region and Income Group 64
. 3.1 Typology of Countries and
Average Adjusted Net Saving, 1990–2015 74
. 3.2 Decomposition of Ghana’s
Adjusted Net Saving Per Capita with Population Adjustment, 2005–14 78
. 3.3 Decomposition of Niger’s
Adjusted Net Saving Per Capita with Population Adjustment, 2005–14 81
. 4.1 MFP Average Annual Growth with
and without Accounting for Natural Resources, Selected Countries, 1996–2008 88
. 4.2 MFP Growth Rates, Selected
Petroleum Producers, 1996–2014 90
. 5.1 Wealth Shares, by Region and
Income Group, 2014 100
. 5.2 States’ Share of National Oil
Companies, by Total Asset Value 108
. 6.1 Trends in Wealth Per Capita, by
Level of Development, 1995–2014 123
. 6.2 Trends in Wealth Per Capita, by
Region, 1995–2014 125
. 6.3 Shares of Human Capital Wealth,
by Gender, 1995–2014 128
. 6.4 Potential Gains in Human Capital
Wealth from Gender Equity, 1995–2014 129
. 7.1 Levels and Gender Shares in
Human Capital Wealth, by Income Group, 1995–2014 138
. 7.2 Summary Statistics for the
Variables, 1995–2010 and 1995–2014 142
7.3 Correlates of the Growth in Human Capital Wealth
of Nations Per Capita: Key Results 145
. 8.1 Morocco’s Wealth Per Capita,
2005–14 153
. 8.2 Wealth Per Capita in Morocco and
Comparator Countries 155
. 8.3 Decomposing Morocco’s Net Wealth
Creation Per Capita, 2005–14 156
. 8.4 Potential Gains in Human Capital
Wealth from Gender Equity, 2014 162
B8.1.1 Effect of Reducing Gender Inequality on the
Rate of Economic Growth 163
9.1 Labor Income Losses from Air Pollution, by Region,
1995–2015 178
11.1 Environmental Modeling and Mapping Approaches for
Ecosystem Services in Support of Wealth Accounting 203
. A.1 Data Sources for Energy and
Mineral Resources 214
. A.2 Data Sources for Forest Timber
Resources 216
. A.3 Data Sources for Forest
Nontimber Resources 216
. A.4 Data Sources for Cropland and
Pastureland 217
. A.5 Data Sources for Agricultural
Land and Terrestrial Protected Land Area 218
. A.6 Data Sources for the Estimation
of Human Capital 222
. A.7 Adjusted Net Saving’s Components
and Primary Data Sources 222
