OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016
© OECD/FAO 2007
ISBN 978-92-64-02509-7
Transcricao do resumo do relatorio:
Outlook in Brief
● Currently strong world market prices for many agricultural commodities in international trade
are, in large measure, due to factors of a temporary nature, such as drought related supply
shortfalls, and low stocks. But, structural changes such as increased feedstock demand for
biofuel production, and the reduction of surpluses due to past policy reforms, may keep prices
above historic equilibrium levels during the next 10 years.
● Higher commodity prices are a particular concern for net food importing developing countries as
well as the poor in urban populations, and will evoke on-going debate on the “food versus fuel”
issue. Furthermore, while higher biofuel feedstock prices support incomes of producers of these
products, they imply higher costs and lower incomes for producers that use the same feedstock
in the form of animal feed.
● The expectation that world market prices have attained a higher plateau may facilitate further
policy reform away from price support. This would reduce the need for border protection and
would provide flexibility for tariff reductions.
● Growing use of cereals, sugar, oilseeds and vegetable oils to satisfy the needs of a rapidly
increasing biofuel industry, is one of the main drivers in the outlook. Over the outlook period,
substantial amounts of maize in the US, wheat and rapeseed in the EU and sugar in Brazil will
be used for ethanol and bio-diesel production. This is underpinning crop prices and, indirectly
through higher feed costs, the prices for livestock products as well.
● Given that in most temperate zone countries ethanol and bio-diesel production are not
economically viable without support, a different combination of production technologies,
biofuel policies and crude oil prices than is assumed in this Outlook could to lead to lower prices
than are projected in this Outlook.
● The assumed strong growth in demand in many developing and emerging economies will spur
expansion in imports as well as provide the impetus to the development of domestic production
capacity. As a result, OECD countries as a group are projected to lose production and export
shares in many commodities to non-OECD countries over the outlook period.
● Measured by global imports, world trade is projected to grow for all commodities reviewed in this
report, without exception. By 2016, and compared to the average for 2001-05, trade expansion
remains modest for SMP (7%), is situated at 13% to 17% for coarse grains and wheat respectively,
but grows by between over 50% for beef, pigmeat and WMP and by close to 70% for vegetable oils.
● Imports grow more strongly in developing countries than in OECD countries for all products
except vegetable oils. And for all products except wheat and coarse grains, these growing
markets are increasingly satisfied through larger exports from other developing countries.
Agricultural world markets are thus characterised by growing south-south trade, raising the
competition for exporting countries within the OECD.
● The growing presence on export markets of Argentina and Brazil is staggering. While Brazil’s
growth is mostly concentrated in sugar, oilseeds and meats, Argentina’s export performance also
covers cereals and many dairy products. Other growing exporters in the developing and transition
economies include Russia and the Ukraine for coarse grains, Viet Nam and Thailand for rice,
Indonesia and Thailand for vegetable oils, and Thailand, Malaysia, India and China for poultry.
● Import growth is much more widely spread across countries. However, China’s dominance of
oilseeds and oilseed products trade is striking. By 2016, China will have become the world’s largest
importer of oilseed meals and it will have further consolidated its leading position in imports of
oils and oilseeds. For the latter product, its share in global imports will have risen to almost 50%.
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário