Mostrando postagens com marcador Alexander Stubb. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Alexander Stubb. Mostrar todas as postagens

terça-feira, 10 de fevereiro de 2026

Da ordem multilateral liberal para a multipolar autoritária? - Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Alexander Stubb, Mark Carney

Da ordem multilateral liberal para a multipolar autoritária?

Vamos refletir conjuntamente...

 Alexander Stubb, o presidente da Finlândia que é um estadista de estatura mundial (um dos poucos que ainda existem), acaba de publicar um pequeno livro que fornece algumas chaves para compreender os atuais cenários ainda em desenvolvimento: The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order (Nova York: Columbia Global Reports, 2026; pode ser descarregado no Kindle Amazon por menos de 10 dólares). Um resumo de suas teses principais já tinha sido publicado como artigo na Foreign Affairs em dezembro de 2025: “The West’s Last Chance: How to Build a New Global Order Before It’s Too Late” (Foreign Affairs, January/February 2026 ; se ainda disponível, pode ser lido neste URL: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/wests-last-chance ; mas se não lograr acesso, eu o coloquei aqui: https://www.academia.edu/164575033/The_Wests_Last_Chance_Alexander_Stubb_Foreign_Affairs_

Estou escrevendo um artigo sobre suas ideias, assim como sobre as ideias de um outro estadista de estatura mundial, o primeiro ministro do Canadá, Mark Carney, tal como ele as apresentou no Fórum Econômico Mundial de Davos, em janeiro último. Aguardem. Enquanto eu não termino, melhor vcs lerem o artigo de Stubb e o discurso de Carney (que eu já coloquei no meu blog Diplomatizzando, em inglês e em português).
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brasília, 10/02/2026

quinta-feira, 4 de dezembro de 2025

The West Is Running Out of Time - Alexander Stubb, (Foreign Affairs)

The West Is Running Out of Time

Alexander Stubb

Foreign Affairs, Dec 2025

The President of Finland, Alexandrr Stubb, has published an important article, “The West’s Last Chance,” arguing that the post–World War II order — built on cooperation, rules, and shared values — is breaking down. Wars are multiplying, alliances are fracturing, and rising powers across the global South are reshaping the geopolitical landscape.

This may be the West’s last chance to rebuild an international order that protects freedom, stability, and smaller nations like Ukraine. If the West fails, the alternative is a world governed by raw power — where aggression goes unpunished and borders mean nothing.

Key Points:

1. The old world order is collapsing.

The rules-based system that kept global peace for decades is unraveling under the pressure of wars, authoritarianism, and great-power competition.

2. A fragmented, multipolar world is emerging.

Influence is shifting to regional and “middle” powers — from India and Brazil to Turkey and Saudi Arabia — who no longer accept a Western-led system.

3. Global conflict is rising because institutions are failing.

The UN, EU, WTO, and other bodies lack the cohesion, authority, or legitimacy to stop aggression or resolve crises.

4. The West is dangerously divided.

Political polarization, inconsistent leadership, and short-term thinking weaken the ability of democracies to respond to global threats.

5. The global South feels ignored — and is choosing its own path.

Many countries believe the old system served Western interests, not theirs, and are now shaping alternative alliances and norms.

6. If the West does nothing, “might makes right” becomes the new global law.

A world where russia can invade neighbors, China redraws borders, and small countries lose basic security guarantees.

7. The West still has a narrow window to act.

Not to restore the old world, but to build a new one — inclusive, modernized, and capable of protecting sovereignty and stability.

8. The solution is renewed, reformed multilateralism.

Western democracies must modernize global institutions, bring rising powers into decision-making, and rebuild trust in shared rules.

9. Leadership matters: hesitation is fatal.

Without coordinated Western leadership, authoritarian regimes will reshape the global order in their image.

10. The stakes are existential for countries like Ukraine.

If the world shifts to a system where aggression is rewarded and sovereignty becomes negotiable, Ukraine will be the first — not the last — victim.

Source: Foreign Affairs

The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, has published an important article, “The West’s Last Chance,” arguing that the post–World War II order — built on cooperation, rules, and shared values — is breaking down. Wars are multiplying, alliances are fracturing, and rising powers across the global South are reshaping the geopolitical landscape.

This may be the West’s last chance to rebuild an international order that protects freedom, stability, and smaller nations like Ukraine. If the West fails, the alternative is a world governed by raw power — where aggression goes unpunished and borders mean nothing.


domingo, 13 de julho de 2025

Entrevista com o presidente da Finlândia

 Finland’s President Alexandeer Stubb: The U.S. elected Trump. His foreign policy is transactional. 

You have to adapt and find ways to influence. Diplomacy is both state and personal, people make the decisions. My heart is often in North America. 1/

Stubb: I doubt we'll see a ceasefire before summer ends, there's no momentum. Thousands die weekly, and Russia keeps targeting civilians.

After NATO summit I felt hopeful long-term, but not about an immediate end. This war may grind on. 2/

Stubb: If you want to end this war you need 2 things. One is you need to continue to militarize Ukraine. 

Second thing, we need to put pressure on Russia so that it ends the war, so it doesn't have an incentive to continue anymore. 3/

Stubb: In today’s transactional world, U.S. actions in Iran could impact Ukraine. Trump has shown he’ll use force. 

A weakened Iran may stop arming Russia. Will Trump get tougher on Russia? Unclear, but he may hold the key to peace. 4/

Stubb: Ukraine is fighting for its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. This is also a fight for the global order — rules, norms, and institutions. 

If might makes right, and borders can be redrawn by force, we risk descending into a lawless, unstable world. 5/

Stubb: You should never get flustered. Stay cool, calm and collected. 6X


Postagem em destaque

Livro Marxismo e Socialismo finalmente disponível - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Meu mais recente livro – que não tem nada a ver com o governo atual ou com sua diplomacia esquizofrênica, já vou logo avisando – ficou final...