Vladimir Putin Will Eventually Lose His War in Ukraine. Here’s Why - Sylvain Saurel (Medium)

 Sylvain Saurel

Medium, Sep 1, 2022

https://ssaurel.medium.com/vladimir-putin-will-eventually-lose-his-war-in-ukraine-heres-why-b7aae0bf8860

Vladimir Putin Will Eventually Lose His War in Ukraine. Here’s Why.

The Kremlin will not be able to afford a sustained war effort in Ukraine for much longer.

Image: Craig Stephens

Russia is likely to lose this war, which began a little over six months ago. It has already lost geopolitically: its existential goal of bringing Ukrainians, who have now turned entirely to the West, back into its sphere of influence has fallen through. Vladimir Putin has pushed Sweden and Finland to join NATO.

His main point of support in Europe, Germany, has been denuded. And the EU-27 will do everything to do without its hydrocarbons. What ally and important outlet does it have left, apart from China? At the risk of a certain vassalization. But what about the outcome of the war itself, which is more important to public opinion than to the protagonists?

The prognosis may seem staggering, given that the world’s second-largest army, on paper, is facing a country with only a handful of operational divisions in 2014. But in the long run, the defeat of the Russian army, at least the loss of the territories conquered since the beginning of the invasion, six months ago, seems likely. The reasons are both economic and military.

Indeed, Western sanctions are considerably hampering the Russian war effort. Certainly, they have not brought its economy to its knees, as some have claimed: this was not possible, given the country’s well-known resilience, and would have been counterproductive, in addition to being ethically questionable.

But key sectors are being strangled by the cessation of Western imports. Car production has been divided by ten by June 2022, domestic airlines will be grounded one after the other due to lack of maintenance. And the strength of the ruble, which is often cited by opponents of sanctions, is nothing but a sham: it is simply because few Russian importers now have to sell rubles to pay for their purchases.

Moscow is betting on a “fatigue” of the European public opinion, for the moment hardly tangible, in particular by cutting gas to push the German industry to implore a lifting of the sanctions. This hypothetical gamble would also deprive it of a third of its foreign exchange earnings. Given the discount on oil sales due to the reputational risk of its customers, once the necessary imports have been paid for, it would only have $300 million a day left to finance its war effort. This is barely enough to replace about 50 Kalibr missiles.

One figure sums up how unequal the current economic tug-of-war is: Russia’s GDP, 1,700 billion dollars, is twenty-eight times lower than that of Kyiv’s allies.

Russian missile stockpile is in free fall — Silence in 6 to 8 months.

Thus, Ukraine benefits from an uninterrupted flow of ultramodern Western weapons, French Caesar guns, British M270 mobile missile launchers, and especially the 16 American Himars batteries, which can destroy a hundred ammunition depots, radar systems, or batteries every day.

Paradoxically, Ukraine has more tanks today than at the beginning of the war, between those captured and those supplied by its allies, while its adversary has lost 1,300, the third of its operational fleet. Moscow has already used up 80% of its stock of cruise missiles, estimated at 3,000 warheads, and cannot reconstitute it, due to a lack of Western electronic components, except for a small amount on the black market. At the current rate of consumption, among the highest in history, of its conventional, short-range, and low-accuracy shells, specialists estimate that its artillery will be silenced in 6 to 8 months.

Moscow has also lost the strategic initiative. Its commandos and airborne troops hardly operate anymore, Chechen fighters are visible only on TikTok and its fleet is practically no longer employed. As for the planes, they are reluctant to enter Ukrainian airspace, at a rate of about fifteen missions per day, and could be neutralized this fall by American Nasams missiles.

Only the artillery, Moscow’s traditional centerpiece, is active at the moment.

Obvious mental wear and tear in the Russian army

American intelligence estimates that one-third of the contingent deployed before the invasion has been put out of action, or 80,000 soldiers killed or wounded. Moscow is now recruiting inexperienced fighters up to the age of 60. Wear and tear is also mental, with reports of desertions, late pay, and alcoholism.

Certainly, Ukraine has probably lost 20,000 to 30,000 men, and its counter-offensive towards the key city of Kherson, announced in early July 2022, is stalling. But it will continue its undermining work, methodically destroying Russian supply lines, now all within range of its missiles, and ammunition depots, targeted almost every day at this moment in this annexed Crimea that Moscow thought was a sanctuary.

Until the Russian troops, isolated, demoralized and deprived of ammunition, have no choice but to retreat or surrender. Because the only plausible outcome now on the Russian side is a humiliating defeat which is likely to make the dictator Vladimir Putin stagger in Russia itself. History has already shown us that bloodthirsty dictators have not been able to resist for long after a defeat as humiliating as the one that awaits Putin in the future.

It is just a matter of time before the defeat of Putin in Ukraine and then his fall in Russia.

Zelenskyy Gamble in Crimea — Everything Is Done to Draw Attention to the Real Start of Putin’s War - Sylvain Saurel (Medium)

 Sylvain Saurel

Medium, Aug 18, 2022

Zelenskyy Gamble in Crimea — Everything Is Done to Draw Attention to the Real Start of Putin’s War.

The war did not start on February 24, 2022, but on February 27, 2014.

Image: Getty Images

Almost six months after the outbreak of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the determination of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains intact. Every day, he is there to give an update on the situation of this odious war led by Vladimir Putin’s Russian army while giving the necessary motivation to his people to continue the struggle for the survival of their identity.

This asymmetrical war, imposed by an invader much more powerful than its victim, remains particularly difficult in the Donbas, where the Russian steamroller, after the bitter failure of its initial offensive on Kyiv, does not stop advancing, even very slowly.

One after the other, two attacks on Russian military sites in Crimea have just shown that the Ukrainian authorities refuse to resign themselves to being subjected to Russia. As Zelensky had already said several times, the Ukrainians are already prepared to carry out counter-offensives against the territories illegally occupied by the Russian army.

However, the attacks in Crimea remain for the moment tactical moves, not officially claimed. They in no way presume an offensive of which the Ukrainian army remains incapable as it stands. But they do reflect a desire to broaden military options, display a strategy of reconquest, and also to wage battle on the terrain of symbols.

These attacks reinstate the current conflict in the Ukrainian narrative, which fixes the beginning of the Russian aggression not on 24 February 2022, but eight years earlier, on 27 February 2014, with the launch of Russian military operations in the peninsula, the base of the Russian Black Sea fleet. These would lead to a unilateral annexation that a controversial referendum would try to cover with a veil of legitimacy. The United Nations never recognized it.

This battle of narratives is as strategic as the one fought with weapons.

Until now, the calm enjoyed by Crimea, the starting point of the invasion by Russian troops of southern Ukraine, validated Vladimir Putin’s thesis of territorial conquest that was no longer debated. The stays of many Russian nationals on its shores bathed by the waters of the Black Sea supported it. The deterioration of the situation, which has led to hasty departures in the last few hours, is brutal and blurs Moscow’s propaganda.

Zelenskyy wants to remind the world of the reality: Crimea is a Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by the Russian army for over 8 years.

If it is confirmed, as some experts believe, that the attacks were caused by bombings of an unprecedented range (about 200 kilometers), these attacks potentially create a new situation. This could force the Russian aggressor to review a large part of his military system. Anxious not to fuel an uncontrolled escalation, the Western allies have so far limited themselves to military aid, which theoretically does not allow for such bombings.

By attempting to put the fate of Crimea back on the table militarily and by announcing the creation of an “advisory Council on the de-occupation of Crimea”, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is showing boldness. By declaring on August 9, 2022, that “this Russian war against Ukraine and entire free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — with its liberation,” he confirmed that he considers the time for negotiation to be less than ever, as he is playing new cards in the ongoing war of attrition.

Ukraine will not be satisfied with a ceasefire that splits its territory in two. Ukraine wants its entire territory back, and that includes Crimea, as the events of the last few days show!

Vladimir Putin, who denounced on August 16, 2022, at a conference on security in Moscow the role of the United States, accused of “dragging” the conflict, will have to take into account once again, under pressure, the resilience of Kyiv. Putin, who saw his Russian army capable of taking control of Ukraine in less than a month, is in the middle of a nightmare.

Prisoner of a doxa that has made Crimea a red line, he will have no choice but to escalate, if the attacks attributed to Ukraine continue on the peninsula. Putin would then contribute to making more visible a war that he wanted to hide from his population.

A Russian population that supports him for lack of alternatives, but which will end up dropping him when it realizes the shameless lies of the Kremlin czar which are propagated continuously by the Russian propaganda. Putin will indeed have a hard time justifying the chaos in Crimea when he has been talking for almost 200 days about a simple “special military operation” in Ukraine.

The truth will eventually come out, bringing Putin closer to the inevitable humiliating defeat that awaits him. The big question is to know if he will be able to resist this humiliation …