Ukraine Sets the Stage to Hit the Kerch Bridge - Shankar Narayan (Medium)

 Ukraine Sets the Stage to Hit the Kerch Bridge

Sails into the Kerch Strait for the first time since the start of the war.

Shankar Narayan

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Medium, 6/03/2024

A Russian Patrol Ship

The situation on the battlefield in Ukraine remains highly fluid and dynamic. While this has been the case for some time, the pace of change appears to be accelerating even further.

Both sides, Russia and Ukraine are acutely aware of each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Every strategic action does evoke some form of strategic response from the other side. After the Russians slowed down their fighter jet sorties over the frontline to avoid further losses, Ukraine made a quick pivot to take the attack to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

I believe we should reconsider how we classify Ukraine’s actions against Russian military targets. Rather than categorizing attacks on specific entities like the Russian air force, Black Sea Fleet, or ground installations separately, it might be more appropriate to encompass them under the broader term of “Russian high-value assets.”

Russia’s array of high-value assets, including critical weaponry and equipment, remains highly vulnerable. Russian forces must remain vigilant to safeguard these hard to replace units within the theater of conflict. Any perceived vulnerability will allow Ukraine to exploit it and target these assets.

What motivates the Ukrainians to take these actions? They aim to prevent the Russians from having any opportunity to catch their breath.

From Ukraine’s perspective, they do not want the Russians to have a quiet night. It helps to keep reminding them that if we do not do something today, we are going to do something tomorrow.

It is psyops.

It helps.

This aids in keeping the threat assessment from the Russian end elevated, limiting their mobility, compelling them to spend time planning, depleting their resources, and maintaining pressure on them.

Yesterday, Multiple naval drones rammed into the Russian patrol ship Sergey Kutov, one of the newest additions to the Black Sea Fleet commissioned in 2021. It is estimated to have a value of around $65 million and with a crew of over 60.

The crew had a higher likelihood of surviving the attack because the ship sank in one of the busiest and most heavily protected corridors in the Black Sea, the Kerch Strait.

Sergey Kutov was sunk near Cape Takil, not too far from the Kerch Bridge

I have no idea how Ukraine managed to sneak multiple naval drones into the Kerch Strait, evade surveillance, and collide with a patrol ship of all things. Technically, a patrol ship should be the one protecting the fleet’s naval assets from hazards like naval drones.

Take a look at how busy, well-lit, and crowded the area where the patrol ship was sunk.

How did the drones get there? Did they travel all the way from Ukrainian shores, or did Ukraine launch them from boats in the sea, or did Ukrainian partisans do it from inside Crimea? I have no idea. Neither does the Russian high command. If they had any idea, this would have never happened.

Whatever the source location of the launch, this attack would have triggered the 3 am alarm inside the Kremlin. A patrol ship, most likely on guard duty at the southern entrance of the Kerch Strait, was sunk by Ukraine’s naval drones.

You can calculate where this is headed.

As soon I saw the attack video, people were saying it was the Kerch strait. I could not believe it. I thought it could be some where near the Port of Feodosia, where Ukraine had attacked and sunk another ship in late December. As time passed, it became clear it was indeed the Kerch strait. The spot where the ship sank is less than 30 kilometers from the Kerch bridge.

My immediate response after realizing where Sergey Kutov sunk was…

Holy Shit!

Will Ukraine launch a direct attack on the Kerch Bridge?

Some day.

They are working their way towards that goal.

Ukraine is running rings around the Russians in the Black Sea.

The Kerch Bridge is Russia’s highest value asset in occupied territory. If Ukraine targets a portfolio of high-value assets, then the Kerch Bridge will be perched at the top of that list. As Ukraine continues to take down Russia’s high-value assets, such as fighter jets and ships in the Black Sea Fleet, the protective cover over the Kerch Bridge will continue to weaken. This isn’t a bridge that can be protected solely by manning its length and breadth with soldiers armed with automatic rifles.

You need air defense systems, patrol boats, radar, and communication systems. You need underwater surveillance. It’s an expensive bridge, requiring expensive protection. You can’t take it down in one day. It can be compromised by eroding its protective cover.

The fight for the Black Sea, which began in June last year, has circled all the way from Snake Island at the westernmost end of the Black Sea to reach the Kerch Strait in March 2024.

Media reports suggest that the Russian Black Sea Fleet has decreased by a quarter of its capacity, with some speculating it’s even more. I can’t confirm. What I do know is that Ukraine has been sinking one or two Russian ships every month since June last year. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been pushed into a corner, now operating mainly in the eastern Black Sea. Most of their operations are focused in and around the Kerch Bridge.

Now, Ukraine has thrown a huge gauntlet at the Russian Navy. We are ready to strike in the Kerch Strait. Are you prepared to defend yourselves?

President Zelensky took his time to rub it in:

“Today, I would like to thank all of our warriors and units who are restoring security and Ukraine’s control over our skies and the Black Sea. Ukraine has already proven its capabilities and strength. The number of destroyed Russian aircraft, as well as our warriors’ achievements against the Russian fleet, serve as proof of this.

There are no safe harbors for Russian terrorists in the Black Sea. And there will be none. Just as there will be no safe space in the skies for them if Ukraine has sufficient strength”.

He should do this more often. The President of Russia likes to refer to nations full of people with derogatory pronouns as he sees fit. He does not have the authority to annoy others. So, whenever there is an opportunity to put him and his army in their rightful place, the Western world needs to seize it.

Words do matter, and the best approach would be to let them follow your actions rather than precede them.

There are no safe harbors for Russians in the Black Sea

It feels like the President is hinting that the Russians can expect the arrival of naval drones in the Russian port of Novorossiya. Or maybe the British Storm Shadow/French SCALP missiles.

I don’t think Ukraine will stick to just naval drones to hit the Russian Black Sea Fleet. They will mix it up with air-to-ship attacks using their long-range missiles. It offers them flexibility in targeting while making a mess out of any contingency plan the Russians come up with.

I really can’t see a way out for the Russian navy.

This isn’t just a problem for the Russian navy. It’s going to be a problem for all navies around the world. It’s just that Russia stuck its nose into someone else’s house and is now getting punched repeatedly and furiously with an innovative hand.

The Russian navy cannot innovate its way out of trouble, especially not in the middle of a war. The patrol ship did try to shoot down the drones, but it came up against a swarm moving towards it at an alarming speed from multiple directions.

This is a lopsided battle where David has more reasons to come out on top than Goliath. And David has a few more reasons to be positive about his future than Goliath does.

The Czech-led effort to procure nearly a million artillery shells for Ukraine is very close to securing the required funding, or by the time you are reading this story, the funding could have been secured. The Czech President has stated that he has identified the sources, and delivery can be made within weeks if funding is arranged. Ukraine’s ammunition-starved frontline troops may finally end their hunger.

I have saved the best one for the last.

French President Emmanuel Macron shows no signs of slowing down. France has agreed to participate in the Czech-led effort to procure shells for Ukraine. While speaking to the media in Prague yesterday, Macron laid out in a very clear manner why self-imposed redlines are a mistake:

“Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin. If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us.”

He is talking, while also backing it up with actions.

The way Western media covers the war against Ukraine has gone off-track. As a result, I have decided to make my Ukraine stories public, without placing them behind the paywall.

==================

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 06.03.24 

Personnel - almost 420,270  people (+1,250);

Tanks - 6,678 (+21);

Armored combat vehicles – 12,728 (+40);

Artillery systems – 10,308 (+50);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 1,008 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 701 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,479 (+56);

Aircraft - 347 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 7,921 (+58);

Intercepted cruise missiles - 1,918 (+1);

Boats/ships – 27 (+1).

Wagner Mercenaries Turn Against Russia in Avdiivka Night Assault - Christian Baghai (Medium)

Surpresas não faltam na "Operação Militar Especial":  

Wagner Mercenaries Turn Against Russia in Avdiivka Night Assault

Christian Baghai

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3 min read·4 days ago

In a stunning turn of events, former Wagner mercenaries have joined forces with Ukraine to launch a daring night assault on Russian positions in Avdiivka, a strategic town in the Donbas region. The attack was reportedly orchestrated by the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC), a paramilitary unit of Russian citizens based in Ukraine, who are fighting against the government of Vladimir Putin

The RVC claims to have ex-Wagner troops and former soldiers from Russia’s Storm Z prisoner battalions among its ranks. Wagner is a notorious Russian private military company that has been involved in conflicts in Syria, Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic. Storm Z is a program that recruits prisoners from Russian jails to fight in Ukraine, in exchange for pardons.

According to a video released by the RVC, the mercenaries rode into battle in US-made Bradley fighting vehicles, which were supplied by Ukraine as part of a military aid package. They then stormed the Russian trenches with guns and grenades, killing and wounding several enemy soldiers. They not only took the trenches, but repelled four counter-attacks and captured a Russian sergeant.

Ukrainian sources said the Wagner fighters “proved themselves to be excellent”, fighting side-by-side with the Ukrainians and “showing commanding qualities”. They also praised the RVC for its professionalism and discipline, saying that the group was not a part of the Ukrainian armed forces, but a “reliable ally”.

The RVC says it is made up of ethnic Russians who are opposed to Putin’s regime and its imperial ambitions. It uses the symbols of the Russian Liberation Army, a collaborationist force that fought with Nazi Germany during World War II. The group’s leader is Denis Kapustin, a neo-Nazi who was banned from the Schengen Area in 2019.

The night assault in Avdiivka is the latest in a series of cross-border raids that the RVC has been conducting since March 2023, when it claimed responsibility for a similar attack in the Bryansk region of Russia. The group says it aims to overthrow Putin’s government and establish a “smaller, ethnic Russian state” that respects the self-determination of Russia’s various ethnic minorities.

The RVC’s actions have provoked a strong reaction from Moscow, which has denounced the group as a “terrorist organization” and accused Kyiv of supporting it. Russia has also vowed to retaliate with “full force” against any further incursions into its territory.

Crônica de uma Catástrofe Anunciada: russos preparam a implosão da central nuclear de Zaporozhye - Nadin Brzezinski (Medium)

 Will the Russians Blow up the Zaporizhia NPP?

Nadin Brzezinski

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5 min read·21 hours ago

Russia has a pattern. It’s an old pattern. It’s one involving the destruction that they can’t have. They have taken pavement from roads on their way out, for example. They have destroyed cities to capture them. The jokes around washers and toilets are long in the tooth at this point. Now they control the sixth largest nuclear plant in Europe, and there is noise they are leaving.

There is also noise. They intend to do great damage on the way out. One of those signals is, as always, accusing the other of what they intend to do. The screen cap below is from TASS, hardly alone. They have also distributed a letter in the United Nations a priori denying responsibility.

The old tool of propaganda is accusing others. Germans perfected this during the Second World War, but Russians were also experts. This is strategic disinformation.

But there is more:

Against the background of the information transmitted the other day by GUR, which showed that the Russians would intend to cause an accident at the Zaporozhye power plant, the same Ukrainian intelligence service today publishes an information on the Telegram channel, according to which 
“ According to the latest data, the occupation contingent is leaving gradually the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant”.

The intelligence agency said among the first to leave the station were three Rosatom employees, who managed the Russians’ actions. Ukrainian employees who signed a contract with Rosatom were also advised to evacuate.

According to the instructions received, they should leave by July 5th.

Also, the number of military patrols is gradually decreasing on the actual territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and in the plant’s satellite city — Energodar. 
Staff remaining at the station were instructed to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies”.

On June 25, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirilo Budanov — “The Man Who Never Smiles” — , said that the Russians had completed preparations for a possible terrorist attack on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

Explosive devices were placed near four of the Plant’s six units. IAEA Director General Raphael Grossi had previously stated that the undermining of the Kahovka Dam threatens the operation of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. According to him, there is a risk of running out of the necessary level of water to cool the reactors in a few weeks. On June 15, he said the situation in Zaporozhye was “serious” but he was trying to “stabilize” it.

Energoatom reported that despite the Russians blowing up the Kahovka Dam, the situation at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant remains under control and there is enough water in the cooling pool to meet the plant’s needs.

From my point of view, any act of sabotage — blowing up, simulating overvoltage, or any other similar act, is still unlikely to ‘0’ considering the catastrophic consequences, both for Europe and, to the same extent, for Russia. Also, a significant part of N-E Turkey would be affected.

The main danger, but which is currently under control, is the provision of the water needed to cool the 6 nuclear reactors.

Now these are not pile reactors. They do run hotter than Western reactors. So perhaps we will have less of an issue than Chornobyl. There is some technical data as to why it will not be that bad. Also, the types of man-made accidents we might expect. I found this Twitter thread useful. However, western reactors did suffer explosions a decade ago.

Now Ukrainians have been screaming to the four winds, to anybody who will listen, that Russia will do this. As of this morning, they shared this as well:

Russia has a plan to remotely detonate the ZNPP when the aggressor’s troops hand over control of the nuclear plant to the IAEA and Ukraine, — Zelensky

To me, the signal that they intend to do it is not the withdrawal of military personnel. Sure, that would be good. The withdrawal of technical personnel needed to deal with an accident is. For somebody screaming the other side is going to do it, why take away the technicians needed to control such a provocation? At least now we know Russians value some lives, maybe.

Yes, at this point, I am way cynical.

Now there are going to be consequences. Perhaps Russia is indeed looking forwards to, for real, losing the war to NATO because losing to Ukraine is short-circuiting their imperial brain. Crests (using the less objectionable insult) are not supposed to be able to fight Russia and defeat Russia. Now, losing to NATO is far more acceptable.

This is why they captured a U.S. General; they did not. Why did they claim there were two NATO generals and troops at Kramatorsk. No, there were not why they hit a command post in Lviv where ten allied generals died; no, that never happened.

But to the Russian people, this is great propaganda. See, we are fighting the collective West! We even have audio on Telegram of the International Legion, who, of course, speak a panoply of languages, including, shockingly, I know, English and Polish, two favorites for the propagandist. They even showed off a few British citizens captured at Mariupol who served with the regular Ukrainian Marines. They were not even in the Legion. Russians intended to try them and execute them as a show trial. In the end, they were exchanged.

We have been at the most dangerous point of this war for at least two weeks. The drama inside Russia is also raising the stakes. This is why. This is one of a few reports from Ukrainian successes at the front:

Counterattack | The 47th OMBr “Magura” breaks through the defense of the Russians in the south

47 OMBr “Magura” breaks through the defense of the Russians in the south. This video concentrates the events of two days of assault. Two companies of Russians fled from their positions.

https://youtu.be/bk5OG6JYmfI

https://t.me/censor_net/32470

Ukrainians are starting to push through defense lines. The video is not that gory, but one section shows the dense minefields, removed by sappers, to the side. They are going slowly, purposefully, and methodically. This saves lives in the end.

So returning to the plant. I concluded a while ago that they would damage that plant on the way out. How serious is a damn good question? My mind firmed this when they blew the Kharkhova dam. This is based on how the Russian mind works. Yes, I will say it right now. I prefer to eat a large crow pie with them fixings on the side. If I am wrong, please tell me this.

We will likely add to the rapidly growing collection of war crimes. This will be in the category of crime against humanity worst case. Let’s hope it’s the best case—either a small incident or none at all.

I indeed look forward to a full pie, not just a slice. Let’s hope I get that.