What Xi must tell Putin now - Mike Mullen, Sam Nunn and Ernest J. Moniz (WP)

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Opinion 

What Xi must tell Putin now

By Mike Mullen, Sam Nunn and Ernest J. Moniz

Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) and former U.S. energy secretary Ernest J. Moniz serve on the Nuclear Threat Initiative’s board of directors.

The Washington Post, September 29, 2022 at 8:10 a.m. EDT

The terrible concoction of conscription, annexation and nuclear weapons that Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered last week presents a crucial test to every major world leader. Global outrage is needed, but the spotlight now shines brightest on China’s President Xi Jinping. He needs to step forward in pressing Putin to de-escalate and end this war, especially since Russian miscalculations are forcing major geopolitical decisions, specifically security challenges in Asia.

In his Sept. 21 speech, Putin desperately sought to align Russia’s military and political objectives into a coherent, albeit misguided, whole. He announced Russia’s call up of reservists to hold the Donbas region of Ukraine, where Russian forces have withdrawn to more defensible lines after being pummeled by the Ukrainian counterattack near Kharkiv. Putin again threatened the use of nuclear weapons to protect Russia’s “territorial integrity,” including new claims of large parts of Ukraine. Politically, Putin is carrying forward with sham referendums in four Ukraine regions now under Russian control, presumably leading to their eventual incorporation into Russia — a repeat of the illegal playbook he used in Crimea in 2014.

The “annexed” territory would presumably then fall under Russia’s nuclear umbrella. When both the military and political components are in place, Putin may believe he will be in a stronger position militarily and diplomatically.

Instead, Ukraine will likely escalate militarily to contest and regain lost territory, while deferring diplomacy. More Russian reservists might need to be called up, exacerbating growing Russian domestic opposition. All of this raises the very real risk that Putin will follow through on his misguided threat to use nuclear weapons to try to salvage the Russian military position and his position as president.

The course Putin has threatened would be a global disaster, with unique implications for China. That’s likely why Beijing has moved from a rhetorical “no limits” friendship to now urging the Kremlin to de-escalate. Much more is needed to influence Putin.

If Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, it could lead nonnuclear weapon states in Asia to the dangerous conclusion that acquiring their own nuclear weapons is the only way to guarantee their security against a nuclear-armed China. No one has to remind the Chinese that Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have significant nuclear technology expertise and are quite capable of quickly developing their own nuclear deterrents, in particular if trust in the United States is also weakened.

The most sensible policy choice for China is to wield its unique position of influence to encourage more “rational” decision-making by Putin. In particular, President Xi must make clear to Putin that nuclear use is a line he must not cross, and nuclear saber-rattling itself threatens the global nuclear order.

We saw last week that Putin is sensitive to Xi’s public position on the war, going out of his way to say he would address China’s questions and concerns. Given Russia’s increasing economic and geopolitical reliance on Beijing, Putin cannot afford an irreparable rift with Xi. A public statement by Xi regarding the unacceptability of nuclear use by Russia in Ukraine would certainly have an impact on Putin. Xi could underline the point by reminding Putin of China’s continuing importance as the No. 1 destination for his energy exports, noting this would have to be reassessed if Putin were to use nuclear weapons.

At the beginning of 2022, Putin joined with the leaders of China, France, the United Kingdom and the United States to declare that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Xi must now hold Putin to that statement and make clear that any use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict is unacceptable.

President Biden should also urge Xi to reassess China’s great power alignments, including Beijing’s relationship with Moscow. Less-threatening, more predictable partners would offer greater stability for Asia than a Russian president intent on an increasingly irrational course while presiding over a weakened and isolated state.

A nuclear war is certainly not inevitable, but the risk of Russian nuclear escalation is real and would be ignored at our collective peril. There is wisdom in restraint in the face of Putin’s nuclear threats. China and the international community, including India, must use all the diplomatic tools they can muster to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict and dissuade Putin from compounding the grievous mistake of starting this war by further escalating it.

The United States and China can — and must — now work together with Europe and other nations to help end this war on the “just terms” called for by Biden in his speech to the United Nations. Cooperation is essential to reduce the risk of nuclear weapons being threatened, or used, by any state. The nightmare scenario of nuclear weapon use in the war in Ukraine is relentlessly coming into sharper focus, and a decision by any country to stand on the sidelines should be viewed as an act of complicity.

War in Ukraine: What you need to know

The latest: Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilization” of troops in an address to the nation on Sept. 21, framing the move as an attempt to defend Russian sovereignty against a West that seeks to use Ukraine as a tool to “divide and destroy Russia.” Follow our live updates here.

The fight: A successful Ukrainian counteroffensive has forced a major Russian retreat in the northeastern Kharkiv region in recent days, as troops fled cities and villages they had occupied since the early days of the war and abandoned large amounts of military equipment.

Annexation referendums: Staged referendums, which would be illegal under international law, are set to take place from Sept. 23 to 27 in the breakaway Luhansk and Donetsk regions of eastern Ukraine, according to Russian news agencies. Another staged referendum will be held by the Moscow-appointed administration in Kherson starting Friday.

Photos: Washington Post photographers have been on the ground from the beginning of the war — here’s some of their most powerful work.

How you can help: Here are ways those in the U.S. can help support the Ukrainian people as well as what people around the world have been donating.

Read our full coverage of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for updates and exclusive video.

 

Zelenskyy Gamble in Crimea — Everything Is Done to Draw Attention to the Real Start of Putin’s War - Sylvain Saurel (Medium)

 Sylvain Saurel

Medium, Aug 18, 2022

Zelenskyy Gamble in Crimea — Everything Is Done to Draw Attention to the Real Start of Putin’s War.

The war did not start on February 24, 2022, but on February 27, 2014.

Image: Getty Images

Almost six months after the outbreak of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the determination of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains intact. Every day, he is there to give an update on the situation of this odious war led by Vladimir Putin’s Russian army while giving the necessary motivation to his people to continue the struggle for the survival of their identity.

This asymmetrical war, imposed by an invader much more powerful than its victim, remains particularly difficult in the Donbas, where the Russian steamroller, after the bitter failure of its initial offensive on Kyiv, does not stop advancing, even very slowly.

One after the other, two attacks on Russian military sites in Crimea have just shown that the Ukrainian authorities refuse to resign themselves to being subjected to Russia. As Zelensky had already said several times, the Ukrainians are already prepared to carry out counter-offensives against the territories illegally occupied by the Russian army.

However, the attacks in Crimea remain for the moment tactical moves, not officially claimed. They in no way presume an offensive of which the Ukrainian army remains incapable as it stands. But they do reflect a desire to broaden military options, display a strategy of reconquest, and also to wage battle on the terrain of symbols.

These attacks reinstate the current conflict in the Ukrainian narrative, which fixes the beginning of the Russian aggression not on 24 February 2022, but eight years earlier, on 27 February 2014, with the launch of Russian military operations in the peninsula, the base of the Russian Black Sea fleet. These would lead to a unilateral annexation that a controversial referendum would try to cover with a veil of legitimacy. The United Nations never recognized it.

This battle of narratives is as strategic as the one fought with weapons.

Until now, the calm enjoyed by Crimea, the starting point of the invasion by Russian troops of southern Ukraine, validated Vladimir Putin’s thesis of territorial conquest that was no longer debated. The stays of many Russian nationals on its shores bathed by the waters of the Black Sea supported it. The deterioration of the situation, which has led to hasty departures in the last few hours, is brutal and blurs Moscow’s propaganda.

Zelenskyy wants to remind the world of the reality: Crimea is a Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by the Russian army for over 8 years.

If it is confirmed, as some experts believe, that the attacks were caused by bombings of an unprecedented range (about 200 kilometers), these attacks potentially create a new situation. This could force the Russian aggressor to review a large part of his military system. Anxious not to fuel an uncontrolled escalation, the Western allies have so far limited themselves to military aid, which theoretically does not allow for such bombings.

By attempting to put the fate of Crimea back on the table militarily and by announcing the creation of an “advisory Council on the de-occupation of Crimea”, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is showing boldness. By declaring on August 9, 2022, that “this Russian war against Ukraine and entire free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — with its liberation,” he confirmed that he considers the time for negotiation to be less than ever, as he is playing new cards in the ongoing war of attrition.

Ukraine will not be satisfied with a ceasefire that splits its territory in two. Ukraine wants its entire territory back, and that includes Crimea, as the events of the last few days show!

Vladimir Putin, who denounced on August 16, 2022, at a conference on security in Moscow the role of the United States, accused of “dragging” the conflict, will have to take into account once again, under pressure, the resilience of Kyiv. Putin, who saw his Russian army capable of taking control of Ukraine in less than a month, is in the middle of a nightmare.

Prisoner of a doxa that has made Crimea a red line, he will have no choice but to escalate, if the attacks attributed to Ukraine continue on the peninsula. Putin would then contribute to making more visible a war that he wanted to hide from his population.

A Russian population that supports him for lack of alternatives, but which will end up dropping him when it realizes the shameless lies of the Kremlin czar which are propagated continuously by the Russian propaganda. Putin will indeed have a hard time justifying the chaos in Crimea when he has been talking for almost 200 days about a simple “special military operation” in Ukraine.

The truth will eventually come out, bringing Putin closer to the inevitable humiliating defeat that awaits him. The big question is to know if he will be able to resist this humiliation …