Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.
Ever wonder what was the best selling book the year you were born? Ever wonder what novel your parents might have seen in bookstores? (Is that just us?) Well, we have all of you curious readers covered. This is a list of the best selling books of each year from 1920 to 2016.
One of the first millionaire authors, Zane Grey wrote TheMan of the Forest and a number of popular westerns after a career in dentistry and a failed stint as a professional baseball player. The novel follows a cowboy who overhears two villains’ plan to kidnap a rancher’s niece and leaves his life in the wild to save her. 1920 also saw the publication of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s debut novel, This Side of Paradise.
The first American to win the Nobel Prize for literature, Sinclair Lewis was known for his satire of American capitalism, consumerism, and politics in novels like Main Street and the prescient It Can’t Happen Here, published in 1936. Main Street follows a woman’s struggle to bring progress to a small town in the face of rigid conservatism.
Telling the story of an unhappy marriage, divorce, and suicide, If Winter Comes had a large cultural impact and was considered well ahead of its time. 1922 also saw the publication of James Joyce’s Ulysses, a sprawling tale of a single day in the life of character Leopold Bloom, which is considered by many to be one of the greatest novels of all time.
Black Oxen was a massive bestseller about a tragic romance between a young playwright and a beautiful woman who, it’s later revealed, is a 58-year-old extending her youthful looks through medical procedures. It was adapted into a popular silent film that year.
Soundings is a romance about a young English woman whose progressive father sends her to France to spend a year traveling and learning about herself. Perhaps the most notable novel to come out of 1925 is F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby, one of the most famous American novels of all time, which has appeared ubiquitously on high school reading lists and has multiple film adaptations.
1926: The Private Life of Helen of Troy by John Erskine
The Private Life of Helen of Troy follows a somewhat progressive and feminist Helen after she returns from defeated Troy and resumes her life in Greece. It was adapted into a 1927 silent film that was nominated for Best Title Writing in the first Academy Awards. Other notable novels from 1926 include The Sun Also Rises by Ernest Hemingway and The Weary Blues by Langston Hughes.
Elmer Gantry is Nobel Prize winner Sinclair Lewis’s second novel on this list. It satirizes religious fundamentalism and evangelism, following a promiscuous, hard-drinking preacher.
1928: The Bridge of San Luis Rey by Thornton Wilder
The Bridge of San Luis Rey won Thornton Wilder one of his three Pulitzer Prizes. It tells the stories of several unrelated individuals who die when an Incan rope bridge collapses in Peru.
1929: All Quiet on the Western Front by Erich Maria Remarque
Perhaps the most recognizable top bestseller of the 1920s to contemporary readers, All Quiet on the Western Front (originally published in German as Im Westen nichts Neues) follows the harrowing experiences of German soldiers during and after World War I. Other famous novels from 1929 include The Sound and the Fury by William Faulkner and A Farewell to Arms by Ernest Hemingway.
Named after the colloquial moniker for an area of land that American settlers colonized in the Midwest, Cimarron is an epic about a husband and wife who settle in Cimarron, start a newspaper, and build a fortune.
The bestselling book in both 1931 and 1932 and a Pulitzer Prize–winning novel, The Good Earth follows the rise and tribulations of a Chinese landowner named Wang Lung as he and his family endure famine and poverty before rising to prosperity.
The historical fiction novel Anthony Adverse follows the life of the titular Anthony as he works in Europe, Africa, and the United States during the early 19th century. Its long page count and explicitly sexual passages proved influential to future American novel writing. It stayed on top of the bestsellers list for 1933 and 1934.
A two-year bestseller, historical fiction novel Anthony Adverse follows the life of the titular Anthony as he works in Europe, Africa, and the United States during the early 19th century. Its long page count and explicitly sexual passages proved influential to future American novel writing.
Green Light is an inspirational novel that follows a disgraced surgeon who took the fall for a medical error to save another’s career. It was adapted into a successful 1937 film starring Errol Flynn.
Gone with the Wind was published in 1936 and became one of the most successful American novels of all time, topping the bestsellers list for two years straight. It follows Scarlett O’Hara, the daughter of a wealthy plantation owner, as her life in the antebellum South is upended by the Civil War.
The Yearling tells the story of a boy in Central Florida who convinces his family to let him adopt a fawn, then faces the challenges of living for sustenance and trying to find his own way in the world. It won a Pulitzer Prize in 1939 and went on to be adapted in film, musicals, and cartoons.
Along with Gone with the Wind, The Grapes of Wrath is perhaps the most recognizable top bestseller of the 1930s to contemporary readers. It tells the story of an Oklahoma family, caught in the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression, who join thousands of others on a long trek to California, where they hope they’ll be prosperous. It won the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award.
The 1940s
1940: How Green Was My Valley by Richard Llewellyn
How Green Was My Valley is narrated by Huw Morgan, an academically talented member of a Welsh mining family, who chronicles his life in South Wales during the Victorian era. It won the National Book Award in 1940.
Set across six decades, The Keys of the Kingdom follows a Scottish Catholic priest’s attempt to establish a mission in China despite facing various hardships. It spawned a 1944 movie adaptation starring Gregory Peck, best known for playing Atticus Finch in the To Kill a Mockingbirdfilm. 1941 also saw the publication of the beloved children’s book Curious George.
This novel tells the story of the real-life figure Saint Bernadette Soubirous, who reported multiple visions of the Virgin Mary and was said to have discovered a holy grotto with healing properties. The grotto remains a major site of Catholic pilgrimage today. 1942 also saw the publication of The Stranger by Albert Camus and The Boxcar Children by Gertrude Chandler Warner.
Written by a former minister, The Robe follows a Roman tribune, Marcellus Gallio, and his slave, Demetrius. Stationed in Palestine, Marcellus participates in the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, but is filled with guilt over his belief that Jesus is innocent, and eventually becomes a devoted Christian himself.
Named after the anti-lynching song made famous by Billie Holiday, Smith’s novel explores the then-taboo topic of interracial romance. The cities of Boston and Detroit both banned the work, and the United States Postal Service briefly refused to ship it, until President Franklin D. Roosevelt stepped in after a request from his wife, Eleanor.
This historical romance novel follows the orphan Amber St. Clare, who, through various marriages and affairs, manages to rise through the ranks of 17th-century English society. Despite its huge sales numbers, the novel’s explicit content prompted bans from 14 states. 1945 also saw the publication of George Orwell’s classic novella Animal Farm.
Du Maurier’s book is set during the English Civil War, shown through the eyes of Honor Harris, separated by tragic circumstances from her love, Richard Grenvile. The novel follows the course of their lives and the impact of the war on their families and loved ones.
This novel centers on Bill Dunnigan, a successful press agent, who has brought the body of legendary actress Olga Treskovna to a small mining town for burial. Told in part through flashback, Janney unpacks the love story between Dunnigan and Treskovna and how things fell apart.
A prequel to 1943’s The Robe (which appears on this list in 1943 and 1953), The Big Fisherman follows Simon Peter, later known as Saint Peter. Initially doubtful of Jesus Christ’s divinity, he slowly becomes convinced over the course of the novel.
Originally published in Finnish in 1945, The Egyptian is a sprawling novel set in ancient Egypt under the rule of Pharaoh Akhenaten. Adapted into a movie in 1954, it remains the only Finnish novel with a Hollywood adaptation.
Robinson’s story focuses on Stephen Fermoyle, a working-class American who rises to the rank of cardinal in the Catholic Church. The novel was adapted into a film in 1963, which was nominated for six Academy Awards.
This war novel follows a group of US infantrymen stationed in Hawaii months before the attack on Pearl Harbor. A National Book Award winner, it has spawned a film, two television adaptations, and a musical.
This historical fiction novel follows a silversmith named Basil tasked with creating a silver chalice to hold the Holy Grail. Two years later, a film adaptation was released starring Paul Newman as Basil in his first studio role.
Ten years after first topping the Publishers Weekly list, The Robe once again took the crown. Written by a former minister, The Robe follows a Roman tribune, Marcellus Gallio, and his slave, Demetrius. Stationed in Palestine, Marcellus participates in the crucifixion of Jesus Christ, but is filled with guilt over his belief that Jesus is innocent, and eventually becomes a devoted Christian himself.
Focused on a brilliant young doctor whose only concern is practicing excellent medicine, Thompson’s novel explores the importance of humanity and well-roundedness in the medical field. It spawned a film adaptation the following year. 1954 also saw the publication of J. R. R. Tolkien’s The Fellowship of the Ring.
Set in the 1930s, the book follows the titular Marjorie and her dreams of becoming an actress. Scholar and cultural commentator Arnold Beichman called the novel “the first Jewish novel that was popular and successful, not merely to a Jewish audience but to a general one.” 1955 also saw the publication of James Baldwin’s Notes of a Native Son and Vladimir Nabokov’s Lolita.
Set in 1945, this parodic novel examines the US Navy and its public relations arm during World War II. Author William Brinkley drew on his own experiences in public relations for the Navy to produce this comedic work.
Following 49 hours in the life of attorney Arthur Winner Jr., Cozzen’s novel won the William Dean Howells Medal in 1960, celebrating the best novel written in the past five years. However, Cozzens’s pessimistic view of the human condition and accusations of bigotry cast a shadow of controversy over the novel, culminating in a blistering review in the magazine Commentary that became almost as well-known as the novel itself.
Set between the Russian Revolution and World War II, Doctor Zhivago is best remembered for its criticisms of the Soviet Union, which resulted in the USSR censoring its publication. However, it was smuggled into Milan and published in 1957, and it soon became famous across the world.
Tracing the passage of the immigration ship Exodus, which brought Jewish immigrants from France to British-controlled Palestine, Exodus has been hailed for creating sympathy for the State of Israel, which had then been newly created. However, some critics have taken issue with the book’s portrayal of Arabs and Palestinians.
Drury’s political novel follows a senator’s nomination to the position of Secretary of State — which is derailed when evidence emerges that ties the senator to communism. Winner of the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, the novel spent 102 weeks on the New York Times bestseller list. It would later go out of print for almost 15 years before being reprinted in 2014. 1960 also saw the publication of Harper Lee’s To Kill a Mockingbird, another bestseller from this year, which has been hailed as one of the greatest American novels and was voted America’s best-loved novel by PBS.
Irving Stone’s The Agony and the Ecstasy chronicles the life of the famous Michelangelo. Stone sourced his information from nearly 500 of Michelangelo’s personal letters, translated from Italian. 1961 also saw the publication of Robert Heinlen’s Stranger in a Strange Land
Following a group of multicultural sailors as they journey from Mexico to a pre–World War II Europe rife with racism, extremism, and injustice, Ship of Fools eloquently tackles the innate human desire for connection, hope, and salvation, even in the darkest of times. The film rights to this instant bestseller were sold for 500,000 in 1962, equivalent to a whopping $4 million today.
The Shoes of the Fisherman tells the story of a papal election and examines Vatican politics. The main characters were inspired by a controversial French theologian and two Ukrainian bishops whom the Soviet Union sent to gulags. Coincidentally, the book was published on June 3, 1963, the same day that Pope John XXIII died.
1964: The Spy Who Came in from the Coldby John le Carré
Though a sequel to le Carré’s two other novels featuring infamous British agent Alec Leamas, The Spy Who Came in from the Cold is this author’s most recognizable title; with action that keeps you on the edge of your seat, the novel dissects the dichotomies between the reality of Western espionage and the values of Western democracy. This classic was voted one of the All-Time 100 Novels by Time critics.
Written in a most unique fashion, The Source tells the tale of the Jewish Family of Ur, all the way from the Stone Age to the advent of monotheism — though the story isn’t relayed in chronological order. Each chapter centers around an artifact found by archaeologists. 1965 also saw the publication of Malcom X and Alex Haley’s The Autobiography of Malcolm X.
In looking to escape the monotony of her small New England hometown, Anne Wells uproots herself to New York City, where she quickly falls into an entertaining and promiscuous cast of characters. Valley of the Dolls is one of bestselling works of all time — no small feat for a debut. 1966 also saw the publication of Truman Capote’s In Cold Blood.
The Arrangement follows Evan Arness, whose life is seemingly perfect — until his affair with a younger woman threatens to destroy the happy marriage and high-powered job that define him.
A snowstorm that wreaks havoc on an airport serves as the symbolic undoing of general manager Mel Bakersfield’s life, and also offers insights into the little-known complexities of running a commercial airport. Though this novel was popular among readers, critical reception was poor.
The novel that launched Philip Roth to international fame, Portnoy’s Complaint is the monologue of the young, sexually frustrated Alexander Portnoy to his psychologist. Critics and readers praised and criticized it for its depictions of sex, masturbation, and lust, as well as its crass sense of humor. 1969 also saw the publication of Kurt Vonnegut’s Slaughterhouse-Five and Maya Angelou’s I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings.
Love Story is, well, a love story. It follows two college students who turn to their relationship as a means to understand and accept the challenges that face them. This novel actually started as a screenplay and would have stayed that way had Paramount Pictures not urged Segal to translate it into a novel.
Read closely and you may be able to suss out the corporations that inspired Hailey’s fictional account that tackles timely issues of the nascent decade, including tense race relations and the secret dark dealings of big business. Runner-up The Exorcist, one of the most recognizable horror novels of all time, almost knocked Wheels off its perch at the number one spot.
Jonathan Livingston Seagull first started as a collection of short stories published 10 years prior in Flying magazine. Bach’s tale of a seagull learning how to fly is one of the bestselling novellas of all time.
Though it took two years for Jonathan Livingston Seagull to hit the top spot, once it was there, it was hard to knock off. Bach’s novella spent 37 weeks on The New York Times bestseller list as readers found themselves strongly identifying with this simple yet profound story of self-acceptance.
Michener’s historical novel travels across the Colorado countryside from prehistoric times to the date of its publication. Though the novel’s namesake town was not initially real, it became so in 2001, though it is located far from where Michener fictionally set it.
Ragtime weaves the interconnected tale of an unnamed family living in New York City, an African American ragtime musician, and an Eastern European immigrant family. Though seemingly unrelated, their juxtaposed stories serve to highlight the class differences, prejudices, and minority hardships that plagued the decade, earning this novel a spot on TimeAll-Time 100 Novels list.
Trinity follows four Irish families from differing religious sects as their lives become intertwined throughout the years. Together they face everything from the Great Famine to the birth of Sinn Féin.
1977: The Silmarillion by J.R.R. Tolkien and Christopher Tolkien
Like a Bible of Middle Earth, The Silmarillion tells the stories of Ilúvatar’s creation of Middle Earth creation of Middle Earth, its violent First Age, its violent Second Age (A Game of Thrones fans would be shocked), and some tales from the (yup, violent) Third Age. TheSilmarillion was originally drafted to be the sequel to The Hobbit but was rejected by Tolkien’s publisher. However, his son Christopher edited and published the tales himself.
In similar fashion to this Pulitzer Prize–winning author’s previous bestsellers, Chesapeake spans centuries, chronicling the stories of families living in and around the Chesapeake Bay from the early 1500s to the 1970s. The novel’s chapters are called “Voyages,” and each deals with the specific problem plaguing the families during that period.
The seemingly unrelated deaths of a prominent American politician and a Russian nuclear physicist are sinisterly tied together by the rival assassins responsible, who are forced to team up to fight an international terrorist group. The most notable bestseller from this year may be Sophie’s Choice, which won the National Book Award in 1980.
Michener is no stranger to the bestseller list, and this novel delivers what he does best — a deep dive into the effects of politics, race, and colonialism across generations. This time Michener sets his novel in South Africa and follows the lives of several distinct tribes over the course of hundreds of years as they fight to maintain their homeland.
Clavell’s tome — over 1,000 pages — chronicles the life of Ian Dunross, who’s left in a precarious financial position that forces him into contact with everyone from an American millionaire to a Taiwanese nationalist. In fact, there are somewhere between 30 and 40 characters in Noble House, and there were originally more before Clavell’s publisher cut down the novel by nearly 30 percent.
1982: E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial by William Kotzwinkle
Published in 1981, it took only one year for the novelization of Steven Spielberg’s beloved film to rise to bestseller status. The film, which tells the story of an American family who finds an alien in their shed, was named one of the greatest films of all time by People.
Usually movies are based on books, but here it’s the other way around. Return of the Jedi is based on the script from the popular Star Wars movie of the same name, though it has a few notable differences that fans will recognize.
1984: The Talisman by Stephen King and Peter Straub
King and Straub joined forces to tell the epic tale of Jack Sawyer, who sets out to find a talisman that he believes will cure his mother’s cancer. But in classic King fashion, Sawyer’s journey takes him into a parallel universe where he finds his “Twinner,” parallel people who are capable of flipping between the two realities.
The Mammoth Hunters is Auel’s third novel in her Earth’s Children series. The series’ second book, The Valley of Horses, hit bestsellers lists in 1982. The six-book series is set 30,000 years in the past, and follows a set of protagonists as they fight to survive against the elements.
The evil namesake of It is able to take on many forms, but prefers to embody Pennywise the Clown in order to lure its preferred victim — children. In this, his 22nd novel, King adeptly undertakes the effects of childhood memories and traumas that linger into adulthood, making this far more than a horror novel.
King nabs the top spot for the second year in a row, this time for The Tommyknockers, a blended science fiction and horror novel about a Maine town that’s taken over by aliens. King dominated the bestsellers list that year, appearing two other times for Misery, which grossed greater sales and acclaim than The Tommyknockers, and The Eyes of the Dragon.
Fans of espionage and high action will love Clancy’s continuation of The Hunt for Red October. Famed spy Jack Ryan is embroiled in the fight to free his agency’s premier operative, codenamed CARDINAL, who is being traced by the KGB.
Clancy claims the first spot for the second year in a row with his sequel to The Cardinal of the Kremlin. Readers rejoin Jack Ryan, now Deputy Director of Intelligence. When Jack’s new position leaves him in the dark about the rising danger of the Colombian drug cartel, he’s forced to take the fight into his own hands.
Auel’s Earth’s Children series topped the bestseller list again with its fourth installment, The Plains of Passage. The historical saga continues, this time with feminist undertones as Auel tackles women’s role in the evolution of society.
Alexandra Ripley writes the sequel to Margaret Mitchell’s Gone with the Wind. Picking up where Mitchell’s novel ended, Scarlett follows Miss O’Hara’s attempts to win back her estranged husband, Rhett.
Dolores Claiborne is the narrator of this eponymous novel about a widow who is suspected of murdering her wealthy employer. King writes without chapters or page breaks in this novel, making the story a continued stream of consciousness.
1993: The Bridges of Madison County by Robert James Waller
This famed novella tells the heatrending love story between a married woman and a National Geographic photographer she meets when he visits her county to photograph the covered bridges. Waller’s novel graced the big screen two years later, in 1995, and the famed adaptation starred Clint Eastwood and Meryl Streep.
The Chamber was Grisham’s fifth novel, but his first to hit number one on the bestseller list. A legal thriller, The Chamber tells the story of Sam Cayhall, who is sentenced to death for murder. When his case is assigned to a team of anti–death penalty lawyers, Sam opens up to them and shares his surprisingly moving and tragic story.
When law school graduate Rudy Baylor finds himself jobless after years of hard work, he puts ethics aside and attempts to make a name for himself, ultimately uncovering a ruthless scheme in the process. Interestingly, this is one of Grisham’s only novels told fully in the present tense.
Another bestselling legal thriller, The Runaway Jury is about the case of Celeste Wood versus tobacco company Pynex. When the lawyers receive a tip that the jury is corrupt, they set off to uncover the labyrinthine scheme to sway the jury from within as they try to determine who’s to gain from this manipulation.
Grisham’s eighth novel continues his streak of successful legal thrillers, but this one takes a more interior look at the main character. Patrick Lanigan flees to South America after embezzling money from his law firm, but is eventually caught. The Partner follows his journey home as he considers the ripple effect of his actions.
A homeless man known only as “Mister” takes nine lawyers hostage as an act of revenge for his eviction. One of the victims is Michael Brock, who, even after the death of Mister, investigates the case further after learning potentially dangerous information from his captor.
It’s safe to say that Grisham dominated the decade, holding over half of the number one spots, and The Testament continues the trend. Hours before billionaire Troy Phelan dies by suicide, he changes his will. He cuts out his entire family and gives the entirety of his fortune to his illegitimate daughter, whom his lawyer and close friend Josh Stafford must track down in the days following Phelan’s death.
The Brethren focuses on three former judges in a minimum security prison who embark on a scam and blackmail operation targeting wealthy, closeted gay men. But when they draw in a hawkish congressman who happens to be the CIA’s favored presidential candidate, the stakes quickly become higher than they’d anticipated. Note that the year 2000 also saw the release of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, but Publishers Weekly’s methodology does not include the Harry Potter series in their rankings.
2001: Desecration by Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins
Desecration is the ninth book in LaHaye and Jenkins’s Left Behind series, which deals with the biblical end-time. After the Rapture suddenly raises many Christians to heaven, those left on Earth must deal with the fallout — even as, unbeknownst to them, the Antichrist moves among them.
When Ray Atlee goes to his father’s home to discuss the older man’s will and estate, he’s shocked to find his father dead — and $3 million in the house that can’t be accounted for. But it soon becomes clear that Ray isn’t the only one who knows about the money — and someone is following him.
When a curator at the Louvre is found dead, Harvard professor Robert Langdon finds himself on the run from the law, drawn into a mysterious quest filled with secret societies and ruthless killers. His adventure could upend not only his own life, but the fate of Christianity itself. Note that 2003 also saw the release of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, but Publishers Weekly’s methodology does not include the Harry Potter series in their rankings.
Readers couldn’t get enough of The Da Vinci Code, which topped Publishers Weekly’s list two years in a row. The second highest–selling book in 2004 was The Five People You Meet in Heavenby Mitch Albom, perhaps best known for his work Tuesdays with Morrie. Albom’s novel tracks a man named Eddie who is killed and goes to heaven, where he meets five people who had a great impact on his life.
Lobbyist Joel Backman finds himself imprisoned after a deal involving a secret hacked spy satellite goes wrong. But when the CIA arranges his release to determine which country is behind the satellite, Backman is thrust into even greater danger. 2005 also saw the release of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, but Publishers Weekly’s methodology does not include the Harry Potter series in their rankings.
Mitch Albom delivers another heartfelt novel, which made a home for itself on top of the New York Times bestseller list for weeks. In the same vein as his previous books, For One More Day explores the topic of mortality through a day one mother spends with her estranged son.
Mariam has suffered from the stigma of being an illegitimate child her whole life and endures constant abuse from her husband. Laila has lived a privileged life, but when she’s forced into an arranged marriage with Mariam’s husband, these two women’s lives change drastically. A Thousand Splendid Suns was recently lauded by the BBC as one of the 100 most inspiring novels.
Grisham took a three-year hiatus between The Broker and The Appeal, the longest break he’d taken from writing since publishing his first novel nearly two decades prior. The Appeal tells the thrilling story of a billionaire stockholder who is determined to save his company’s reputation after a lawsuit sullies their name and drains their finances.
Similar to his previous novels, the themes and storyline of Brown’s The Lost Symbol revolve around Freemasonry and Harvard symbologist Robert Langdon, who was featured in both The Da Vinci Code and Angels and Demons. The Lost Symbol became the fastest-selling adult novel when it sold over one million copies on its first day of release.
The 2010s
2010: The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest by Stieg Larsson
TheGirl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest is the third novel in Larsson’s popular Millennium series; however, the previous two novels did not top the Publishers Weekly list. Larsson never saw the publication of his series, as he died suddenly of a heart attack in 2004, a year before The Girl with the Dragon Tattoowas published.
Yet another number one bestseller from John Grisham, The Litigators follows a burnt-out young lawyer who leaves his corporate law firm. He later joins a small boutique firm that’s just barely squeaking by, where he finds himself working on a high-stakes case against the corporate law firm he used to work for.
Originally self-published in 2011, the massive bestseller Fifty Shades of Grey was republished for a mass audience in 2012, and it quickly broke book sales records. The novel follows college senior Anastasia Steele, who interviews billionaire Christian Grey, a high-powered businessman who initiates a sexual (and controversial) relationship.
2013: Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Hard Luck by Jeff Kinney
The eighth book in the Diary of a Wimpy Kid series, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Hard Luck shot to the top of the bestsellers list in 2013. Hard Luck follows protagonist Greg, who has to make new friends, and comes to rely on a Magic 8-Ball to guide his decisions.
The Fault in Our Stars tells the heartbreaking story of Hazel Lancaster and Augustus Waters, two teenagers living with cancer who begin a relationship after meeting in a support group. The novel was adapted into a 2014 film that, like the novel, won positive reviews and commercial success.
Go Set a Watchman was Harper Lee’s first novel since the classic To Kill a Mockingbird, helping it become one of the most highly anticipated and bestselling novels of 2015. The controversial novel follows an adult Scout, the young protagonist of To Kill a Mockingbird, as she confronts the racism in her community.
We’d be impressed if anyone born in 2016 has read The Girl on the Train! This psychological thriller kicks off when a woman riding a train witnesses something shocking between a couple she observes from afar each day. It was adapted into a 2016 film starring Emily Blunt.
A diplomacia dos descobrimentos: Tordesilhas e o desenho do Brasil
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Capítulo III do livro: Relações internacionais e política externa do Brasil: dos descobrimentos à globalização (Porto Alegre: Editora da UFRGS, 1998, 360 p.; ISBN: 85-7025-455-5); não retomado nas edições posteriores.
Ao nos aproximarmos da praia, fico em pé na proa para desfraldar as cores de Castela e León, o castelo dourado e o leão púrpura, e as listras vermelhas e amarelas de Aragón. Atrás de nós, Santa Maria, Niña e Pinta estão ancoradas em uma baía protegida por recifes de um coral poroso e róseo jamais visto por um europeu. (…) À medida que nos acercamos da fascinante praia, experimento uma sensação intensa… O vento agita levemente o estandarte real (…). Levanto um pé descalço sobre a amurada.
Mas espere, este é um momento histórico.
Estarei preparado para ele? Ao dar aquele primeiro passo em terra, por acaso eu pronuncio alguma coisa imortal e profundamente apropriada, escolhendo minhas palavras como um desafio nos desvãos da História para os intrépidos exploradores que estão por nascer? Por acaso eu digo, ao plantar o estandarte real na praia, “Um pequeno passo para um cristão, um grande passo para o cristianismo”, passando a perna em Neil Armstrong em quase quinhentos anos?
Não, eu não tenho meio bilhão de espectadores no mundo inteiro assistindo ao meu feito, nenhum jornal adquiriu os direitos de publicar minhas aventuras em troca de uma enorme soma em dinheiro, nenhum editor me fez qualquer adiantamento milionário para o chamado Diário de Colombo, não existe nenhum centro de controle para monitorar todos os meus movimentos. (… )
Assim, não pronuncio nenhuma frase de efeito para a posteridade. O que eu digo, inquieto e com razão, … é apenas:
— Tem alguém lá no mato.
Stephen Marlowe, The Memoirs of Cristopher Columbus (1987)
1. O ato fundador da história moderna
Colombo, ao desembarcar naquela praia das Antilhas em 1492, não deve realmente ter antecipado nenhuma variante “religiosa” da famosa frase “laica” (provavelmente pré-fabricada e publicitada depois por um eficiente serviço de public relations) pronunciada por um astronauta norte-americano ao dar, em 1969, seu primeiro “passo lunar”.
Climate change is the major environmental challenge facing nations today, and it is increasingly viewed as one of the central issues in international relations. Yet governments have used a flawed architecture in their attempts to forge treaties to counter it. The key agreements, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2015 Paris climate accord, have relied on voluntary arrangements, which induce free-riding that undermines any agreement.
States need to reconceptualize climate agreements and replace the current flawed model with an alternative that has a different incentive structure—what I would call the “Climate Club.” Nations can overcome the syndrome of free-riding in international climate agreements if they adopt the club model and include penalties for nations that do not participate. Otherwise, the global effort to curb climate change is sure to fail.
In December 2019, the 25th Conference of the Parties (COP25) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) met in Madrid, Spain. As most independent observers concluded, there was a total disconnect between the need for sharp emission reductions and the outcomes of the deliberations. COP25 followed COP24, which followed COP23, which followed COP22, all the way back to COP1—a series of multilateral negotiations that produced the failed Kyoto Protocol and the wobbly Paris accord. At the end of this long string of conferences, the world in 2020 is no further along than it was after COP1, in 1995: there is no binding international agreement on climate change.
When an athletic team loses 25 games in a row, it is time for a new coach. After a long string of failed climate meetings, similarly, the old design for climate agreements should be scrapped in favor of a new one that can fix its mistakes.
THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Concepts from game theory elucidate different kinds of international conflicts and the potential for international agreements. A first and easy class of agreements are those that are universally beneficial and have strong incentives for parties to participate. Examples include coordination agreements, such as the 1912 accord to coordinate the world measurements of time and, more recently, the agreement to use “aviation English” for civil aviation, which coordinates communications to prevent collisions during air travel. A second class of agreements, of medium difficulty, rely on reciprocity, a central example being treaties on international trade.
A third class of international agreements confront hard problems—those involving global public goods. These are goods whose impacts are indivisibly spread around the entire globe. Public goods do not represent a new phenomenon. But they are becoming more critical in today’s world because of rapid technological change and the astounding decline in transportation and communication costs. The quick spread of COVID-19 is a grim reminder of how global forces respect no boundaries and of the perils of ignoring global problems until they threaten to overwhelm countries that refuse to prepare and cooperate.
Agreements on global public goods are hard because individual countries have an incentive to defect, producing noncooperative, beggar-thy-neighbor outcomes. In doing so, they are pursuing their national interests rather than cooperating on plans that are globally beneficial—and beneficial to the individual countries that participate. Many of the thorniest global issues—interstate armed conflict, nuclear proliferation, the law of the sea, and, increasingly, cyberwarfare—have the structure of a prisoner’s dilemma. The prisoner’s dilemma occurs in a strategic situation in which the actors have incentives to make themselves better off at the expense of other parties. The result is that all parties are worse off. (The studies of Columbia’s Scott Barrett on international environmental agreements lay out the theory and history in an exemplary way.)
International climate treaties, which attempt to address hard problems, fall into the third class, and they have largely failed to meet their objectives. There are many reasons for this failure. Since they are directed at a hard problem, international climate agreements start with an incentive structure that has proved intrinsically difficult to make work. They have also been undermined by myopic or venal leaders who have no interest in long-term global issues and refuse to take the problem seriously. Further obstacles are the scale, difficulty, and cost of slowing climate change.
But in addition to facing the intrinsic difficulty of solving the hard problem of climate change, international climate agreements have been based on a flawed model of how they should be structured. The central flaw has been to overlook the incentive structure. Because countries do not realistically appreciate that the challenge of global warming presents a prisoner’s dilemma, they have negotiated agreements that are voluntary and promote free-riding—and are thus sure to fail.
MORE KNOWLEDGE, NO PROGRESS
The risks of climate change were recognized in the UNFCCC, which was ratified in 1994. The UNFCCC declared that the “ultimate objective” of climate policy is “to achieve . . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”
The first step in implementing the UNFCCC was taken in the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Kyoto’s most important innovation was an international cap-and-trade system for emissions. Each country’s greenhouse gas emissions were limited under the protocol (the cap). But countries could buy or sell their emission rights to other countries depending on their circumstances (the trade). The idea was that the system would create a market in emissions, which would give countries, companies, and governments strong incentives to reduce their emissions at the lowest possible cost.
The Kyoto Protocol died a quiet death, mourned by few.
The Kyoto Protocol was an ambitious attempt to construct an international architecture to harmonize the policies of different countries. Because it was voluntary, however, the United States and Canada withdrew without consequences, and no new countries signed on. As a result, there was a sharp reduction in its coverage of emissions. It died a quiet death, mourned by few, on December 31, 2012—a club that no country cared to join.
The Kyoto Protocol was followed by the Paris accord of 2015. This agreement was aimed at “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.” The Paris agreement requires all countries to make their best efforts through “nationally determined contributions.” For example, China announced that it would reduce its carbon intensity (that is, its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP), and other countries announced absolute reductions in emissions. The United States, under the Trump administration, declared that it would withdraw from the agreement.
Even before the United States withdrew, it was clear that the national targets in the Paris accord were inconsistent with the two-degree temperature target. The accord has two major structural defects: it is uncoordinated, and it is voluntary. It is uncoordinated in the sense that its policies, if undertaken, would not limit climate change to the target of two degrees. And it is voluntary because there are no penalties if countries withdraw or fail to meet their commitments.
Studies of past trends, as well as the likely ineffectiveness of the commitments in the Paris accord, point to a grim reality. Global emissions would need to decline by about three percent annually in the coming years for the world to limit warming to the two-degree target. Actual emissions have grown by about two percent annually over the last two decades. Modeling studies indicate that even if the Paris commitments are met, the global temperature will almost certainly exceed the two-degree target later in the twenty-first century.
The bottom line is that climate policy has not progressed over the last three decades. The dangers of global warming are much better understood, but nations have not adopted effective policies to slow the coming peril.
FREE RIDERS
Why are agreements on global public goods so elusive? After all, nations have succeeded in forging effective policies for national public goods, such as clean air, public health, and water quality. Why have landmark agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris accord failed to make a dent in emission trends?
The reason is free-riding, spurred by the tendency for countries to pursue their national interests. Free-riding occurs when a party receives the benefits of a public good without contributing to the costs. In the case of international climate change policy, countries have an incentive to rely on the emission reductions of others without making costly domestic reductions themselves.
Focusing on national welfare is appropriate when impacts do not spill over national borders. In such cases, countries are well governed if they put their citizens’ well-being first rather than promoting narrow interests such as through protectionist tariffs or lax environmental regulations. However, when tackling global problems, nationalist or noncooperative policies that focus solely on the home country at the expense of other countries—beggar-thy-neighbor policies—are counterproductive.
Free-riding lies at the heart of the failure to deal with climate change.
Many global issues induce cooperation by their very nature. Like players on athletic teams, countries can accomplish more when acting together than when going their separate ways. The most prominent examples of positive-sum cooperation are the treaties and alliances that have led to a sharp decline in battle deaths in recent years. Another important case is the emergence of low-tariff regimes in most countries. By reducing barriers to trade, all nations have seen an improvement in their living standards.
However, alongside the successes lie a string of failures on the global stage. Nations have failed to stop nuclear proliferation, overfishing in the oceans, littering in space, and transnational cybercrime. Many of these failures reflect the syndrome of free-riding. When there are international efforts to resolve a global problem, some nations inevitably contribute very little. For example, NATO is committed to defending its members against attacks. The parties to the alliance agreed to share the costs. In practice, however, the burden sharing is not equal: the United States accounted for 70 percent of the total defense spending by NATO members in 2018. Many other NATO members spend only a tiny fraction of their GDPs on defense, Luxembourg being the extreme case, at just 0.5 percent. Countries that do not fully participate in a multiparty agreement on public goods get a free ride on the costly investments of other countries.
Free-riding is a major hurdle to addressing global externalities, and it lies at the heart of the failure to deal with climate change. Consider a voluntary agreement, such as the Kyoto Protocol or the Paris accord. No single country has an incentive to cut its emissions sharply. Suppose that when Country A spends $100 on abatement, global damages decline by $200 but Country A might get only $20 worth of the benefits: its national cost-benefit analysis would lead it not to undertake the abatement. Hence, nations have a strong incentive not to participate in such agreements. If they do participate, there is a further incentive to understate their emissions or to miss ambitious objectives. The outcome is a noncooperative free-riding equilibrium, in which few countries undertake strong climate change policies—a situation that closely resembles the current international policy environment.
When it comes to climate change policies today, nations speak loudly but carry no stick at all.
MEMBERSHIP BENEFITS
In light of the failure of past agreements, it is easy to conclude that international cooperation on climate change is doomed to fail. This is the wrong conclusion. Past climate treaties have failed because of poor architecture. The key to an effective climate treaty is to change the architecture, from a voluntary agreement to one with strong incentives to participate.
Successful international agreements function as a kind of club of nations. Although most people belong to clubs, they seldom consider their structure. A club is a voluntary group deriving mutual benefits from sharing the costs of producing a shared good or service. The gains from a successful club are sufficiently large that members will pay dues and adhere to club rules to get the benefits of membership.
The principal conditions for a successful club include that there is a public-good-type resource that can be shared (whether the benefits from a military alliance or the enjoyment of low-cost goods from around the world); that the cooperative arrangement, including the costs or dues, is beneficial for each of the members; that nonmembers can be excluded or penalized at relatively low cost to members; and that the membership is stable in the sense that no one wants to leave.
Successful international agreements function as a kind of club of nations.
Nations can overcome the syndrome of free-riding in international climate agreements if they adopt the club model rather than the Kyoto-Paris model. How could the Climate Club work? There are two key features of the Climate Club that would distinguish it from previous efforts. The first is that participating countries would agree to undertake harmonized emission reductions designed to meet a climate objective (such as a two-degree temperature limit). The second and critical difference is that nations that do not participate or do not meet their obligations would incur penalties.
Start with the rules for membership. Early climate treaties involved quantitative restrictions, such as emission limits. A more fruitful rule, in line with modern environmental thinking, would focus on a carbon price, a price attached to emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More precisely, countries would agree on an international target carbon price, which would be the focal provision of the agreement. For example, countries might agree that each will implement policies that produce a minimum domestic carbon price of $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide. That target price might apply to 2020 and rise over time at, say, three percent per year in real terms. (The World Bank estimates that the global average carbon price today is about $2 per ton of carbon dioxide.)
Why would carbon prices be a better coordinating device than the quantity of emissions? One important reason is that an efficient path for limiting warming would involve equating the incremental (marginal) costs of reductions in all countries and all sectors. This would be accomplished by having equal carbon prices everywhere. A second and equally powerful reason involves bargaining strategy, a point emphasized in the writings of the economist Martin Weitzman. When countries bargain about the target price, this simplifies the negotiations, making them about a single number: dollars per ton. When the bargaining is about each country’s emission limit, this is a hopeless matter, because countries want low limits for others and high limits for themselves. A bargain about emission limits is likely to end up with no limits at all.
A treaty focusing on an international target carbon price would not mandate a particular national policy. Countries could use carbon taxes (which would easily solve the problem of setting the price) or a cap-and-trade mechanism (such as is used by the European Union). Either can achieve the minimum price, but different countries might find one or the other approach more suited to its institutions.
The second and critical feature of the Climate Club would be a penalty for nonparticipants. This is what gives the club mechanism its structure of incentives and what distinguishes it from all current approaches to countering climate change: nonparticipants are penalized. Some form of sanction on nonparticipants is required to induce countries to participate in and abide by agreements with local costs but diffuse benefits. Without penalties, the agreement will dissolve into ineffectiveness, as have the Kyoto and Paris schemes.
Although many different penalties might be considered, the simplest and most effective would be tariffs on imports from nonparticipants into club member states. With penalty tariffs on nonparticipants, the Climate Club would create a situation in which countries acting in their self-interest would choose to enter the club and undertake ambitious emission reductions because of the structure of the payoffs.
One brand of penalty could be a countervailing duty on the carbon content of imports. However, this approach would be both complicated and ineffective as an incentive to join a club. The main problem is that much carbon dioxide is emitted in the production of nontraded goods, such as electricity. Additionally, calculating accurately the indirect carbon content of imports is exceedingly complicated.
A second and more promising approach would be a uniform tariff on all imports from nonclub countries into the club. Take as an example a penalty tariff of five percent. If nonparticipant Country A exported $100 billion worth of goods into the club countries, it would be penalized with $5 billion of tariffs. The advantage of uniform tariffs over countervailing duties is simply simplicity. The point is not to fine-tune the tariffs to a nonparticipant country’s production structure but to provide powerful incentives for countries to be part of the Climate Club.
SANCTIONING THE NONPARTICIPANTS
There is a small academic literature analyzing the effectiveness of clubs and comparing them to agreements without sanctions. The results suggest that a well-designed climate club requiring strong carbon abatement and imposing trade sanctions on nonparticipants would provide well-aligned incentives for countries to join.
I will illustrate the point using the results of a study I presented in my 2015 Presidential Address to the American Economic Association and summarized in my Nobel Prize lecture. (The former provided a full explanation of the model, the results, the qualifications, and the sensitivity analyses; the latter was a nontechnical discussion of just the key results.) The study divided the world into 15 major regions. Each region has its own abatement costs and damages from climate change. Because of the global nature of climate change, however, the abatement costs are local, whereas virtually all the benefits of a region’s emission reductions spill over to other regions. Even for the largest players (the United States and China), at least 85 percent of the benefits of their emission reductions accrue abroad.
Voluntary international climate agreements will accomplish little.
The modeling of the study tested alternative uniform tariff rates, from zero to ten percent, and different international target carbon prices, from $12.50 per ton to $100 per ton. It then asked if there were stable coalitions of countries that wanted to join and remain in the club. One case is a regime with a carbon price of $25 per ton and a penalty tariff of three percent. With this regime, it is in the national interest of every region to participate, and it is in the interest of no region to defect and free-ride. The coalition of all regions is stable because the losses from the tariff (for nonparticipants) are larger than the costs of abatement (for participants).
The Kyoto Protocol and the Paris accord can be thought of as regimes with zero penalty tariffs. Both history and modeling have shown that these induce minimal abatement. Put differently, the analysis predicts—alas, in a way that history has confirmed—that voluntary international climate agreements will accomplish little; they will definitely not meet the ambitious objectives of the Paris accord.
Such detailed modeling results should not be taken literally. Modeling offers insights rather than single-digit accuracy. The basic lesson is that current approaches are based on a flawed concept of how to manage the global commons. The voluntary approach needs to be replaced by a club structure in which there are penalties for nonparticipation—in effect, environmental taxes on those who are violating the global commons.
TOWARD EFFECTIVE POLICIES
The international community is a long way from adopting a Climate Club or a similar arrangement to slow the ominous march of climate change. The obstacles include ignorance, the distortions of democracy by anti-environmental interests, free-riding among those looking to the interests of their country, and shortsightedness among those who discount the interests of the future. Additionally, nations have continued with the losing strategy (zero wins, 25 losses) pursued by the UNFCCC’s Conference of the Parties structure. Global warming is a trillion-dollar problem requiring a trillion-dollar solution, and that demands a far more robust incentive structure.
There are many steps necessary to slow global warming effectively. One central part of a productive strategy is to ensure that actions are global and not just national or local. The best hope for effective coordination is a Climate Club—a coalition of nations that commit to strong steps to reduce emissions and mechanisms to penalize countries that do not participate. Although this is a radical proposal that breaks with the approach of past climate negotiations, no other blueprint on the public agenda holds the promise of strong and coordinated international action.
Meu comentário: Hussein Ali Kalout trata do aspecto mais relevante da governança, o processo decisório e a tomada de decisão, que nos regimes presidencialistas podem ser excessivamente centralizados no chefe de governo e de Estado, ao passo que nos regimes de gabinete (parlamentarista) costumam ser mais diluídos entre os membros do governo, que respondem diretamente ao parlamento, enquanto no primeiro regime podem ficar confinados ao bunker presidencial. O processo decisório ideal começa na base, ou seja, o técnico encarregado de estudar a questão em todos os seus aspectos, consultando pares, superiores, agências conexas, lendo a literatura pertinente e consultando a memória da instituição, para saber os precedentes e como se encaminharam casos semelhantes ou similares no passado. Depois o assunto vai subindo – passando por várias instâncias, econômica, política, jurídica, interface externa, etc. – até chegar no decisor de alto escalão, mas não o último, que só intervém nos assuntos de governo ou de Estado. Trata-se, portanto, de uma pirâmide, que parte da base, ampla, e chega ao vértice, quando chega, o pico do triângulo. Processos centralizados e autoritários costumam inverter a pirâmide, e o vértice acaba virando a base, ou seja o técnico especialista acaba fazendo exatamente aquilo que quer o chefe, o comitê central do Partido, o ditador. No caso do Brasil, acredito que existem triângulos em várias esferas, mas no que concerne a presidência, aquilo ali não é um triângulo em qualquer sentido, mas uma arquitetura dadaísta, surrealista, ou seja, o caos completo. Paulo Roberto de Almeida
O ANACRONISMO DO PROCESSO DECISÓRIO PRESIDENCIAL
O país enfrenta, como de resto o mundo inteiro, a crise da pandemia da Covid-19; e nesse momento de grande comoção faz falta uma cultura de tomada de decisões verdadeiramente plural
Hussein Kalout
Revista Época, 08/04/2020 - 13:25 / Atualizado em 08/04/2020 - 13:26
Ted Sorensen foi um assessor destacado e escritor de discursos do Presidente John F. Kennedy. Em seu livro de memórias, descreve o estilo do presidente norte-americano. No lugar dos puxa-sacos e aduladores, Kennedy se cercava de pessoas de distintos perfis, trajetórias e opiniões. A sua concepção de tomada de decisão era baseada na obsessão pelo desafio às preferências e inclinações pré-estabelecidas.
Segundo Sorensen, esse estilo constituía a garantia de que Kennedy só tomaria uma decisão depois de um escrutínio livre, sistemático e, até mesmo, incisivo de suas próprias opiniões por parte de seus assessores.
Esse depoimento é convergente com o relato que o irmão do Presidente, Robert Kennedy, faz do período mais crítico da crise dos mísseis de Cuba, em 1962. O livro, intitulado “Treze Dias”, serviu de inspiração para o filme de mesmo título, tendo Kevin Costner no papel de um dos assessores de Kennedy.
Para quem estuda relações internacionais, o processo decisório de Kennedy na crise que quase levou à Terceira Guerra Mundial gerou o estudo de caso clássico “A Essência da Decisão” do professor Graham Allison, meu colega em Harvard.
Sem entrar nos meandros do sofisticado estudo de Allison, que teria um interesse mais acadêmico, o fato é que todos os registros indicam que Kennedy foi capaz de fazer cálculos complexos e evitou o pior, apesar de alguns impulsos de certos assessores, por conta de seu estilo de liderança.
É claro que fica fácil tirar conclusões a posteriori, mas tudo indica que o estilo foi tão importante para o desfecho do episódio – a negociação diplomática acabou prevalecendo sobre um ataque militar – quanto a qualidade das informações de inteligência, as análises e informes ou a postura do outro lado, que também se alterou e abriu espaço para a acomodação.
Diante de grandes momentos de tensão ou de alteração repentina das condições de governabilidade, as instituições e a cultura política de um país fazem toda a diferença. No entanto, há momentos críticos na história em que a liderança – seja o Presidente Kennedy nesse episódio ou Franklin Roosevelt antes dele – adquire peso decisivo nos resultados alcançados.
Se o Estado moderno se caracteriza pela legitimação racional-legal, como queria Weber, há momentos em que, diante de dilemas inesperados, um espaço se abre para o carisma da liderança, que, se estiver à altura de seu tempo, poderá ser fator central no enfrentamento de desafios e encaminhamento de soluções.
O líder que é capaz de ouvir e tomar decisões com base em argumentos sólidos, ancoradas em opiniões abalizadas e em avaliação serena, inclusive dos dados científicos, terá certamente mais chance de acertar, como Kennedy acertou.
No Brasil, nossa cultura de tomada de decisões tende a ser muito mais verticalizada, com um sistema centralizado na figura do Presidente, porém sem a tradição de pluralismo que um dia prevaleceu nos EUA. Em terras tupiniquins, a máxima do período do Estado Novo ainda ecoa nas práticas políticas hodiernas: aos amigos, tudo; aos inimigos, a fria letra da lei.
Nos dias que correm, o país enfrenta, como de resto o mundo inteiro, a crise da pandemia da Covid-19. É nesses momentos de grande comoção que mais faz falta uma cultura de tomada de decisões verdadeiramente plural.
No lugar dos aduladores, o chefe de governo precisa de verdadeiros assessores, com a prerrogativa de dizer a verdade e, se for o caso, contrariar os pressupostos tidos como intocáveis do líder de plantão, para que sua decisão não se baseie na visão pré-estabelecida, unidimensional e limitada de sua claque, mas responda às reais necessidades do país.
Se no Brasil já seria difícil, sob quaisquer circunstâncias, ter um processo decisório mais aberto, transparente e plural, hoje, infelizmente, respira-se um ar ainda mais rarefeito nos círculos de poder, em sintonia com a polarização exacerbada que tem sido nossa sina recente.
Nesses casos, na ausência de liderança no Executivo capaz de inspirar confiança e gerar união, cega que está pelos preconceitos e pelo fervor ideológico e convencida de que é dona do monopólio da verdade, as decisões capazes de apontar o fim do túnel devem ser construídas pelos demais Poderes, em particular o Legislativo, e pelos entes subnacionais.
Se o Presidente exige fidelidade canina a sua visão de mundo, a ponto de ministros modularem suas opiniões técnicas sobre o enfrentamento da pandemia para enquadrar-se na orientação política imposta de cima, não resta outra alternativa senão o sistema de pesos e contrapesos das instituições democráticas e republicanas.
O Congresso já começou a fazer a sua parte, ao propor e aprovar ajuda para trabalhadores mais vulneráveis e socorro para pequenas e médias empresas. Por sua vez, o poder judiciário também tem atuado para minimizar os efeitos da crise.
Em duas decisões fundamentais, o STF flexibilizou a lei de responsabilidade fiscal e decidiu impedir a veiculação de campanhas oficiais que atentam contra a saúde pública. Se o Executivo federal ignora as melhores recomendações baseadas na experiência internacional, cabe aos governadores exigir respeito às medidas capazes de salvar vidas e evitar o caos na saúde e na economia.
Seria demais pedir um Kennedy, um Roosevelt ou um Churchill no Brasil – hoje ou em qualquer momento de nossa história, mas o que não podemos nos dar o luxo é de deixar a marcha da insensatez promovida por alguns entes do Executivo seguir impávida, sem contraponto ou limites. E já passou da hora de dar um basta. Trata-se, literalmente, de uma questão de vida ou morte.
"Desafio à realidade", "geografia imaginária", "história paralela", "país fictício", "situações irreais", "sistema anárquico de textos", "campo de confronto com a realidade objetiva": os apostos poderiam descrever a produção ensaística de Ernesto Araújo no blog Metapolítica 17 ou ainda no discurso de posse, aquele dos queixumes sobre a CNN e da ave-maria em tupi. Mas são termos usados nas apresentações de A porta de Mogar (1998), Xarab fica (1999) e Quatro 3 (2001), os três romances que o então jovem diplomata lançou pela pequena editora Alfa Ômega, de São Paulo. Embora curtos, os livros são exigentes, tamanha a dificuldade de entender os enredos.
A porta de Mogar, o primeiro, foi escrito quando Ernesto estava na Missão do Brasil junto às Comunidades Europeias, em Bruxelas. Com jogos de pensamento e divagações, é cheio de situações filosóficas vividas pelos personagens Keniv e Mogar, num país fictício. Na epígrafe, uma frase do pré-socrático Heráclito [no livro, grafado Herakleitos, em grego], é sincera ao anunciar as elucubrações que vêm nas páginas seguintes: "Quem não espera o inesperado, não o encontrará".
A apresentação compara o estilo de Ernesto com o do alemão Herman Hesse, embora não tenha nada a ver, até pela dificuldade de compreensão. Alguns trechos, entretanto, podem ser interpretados como indicações do que seria o Ernesto chanceler de 2019, a exemplo de um diálogo de Keniv e outra personagem, chamada Tsanash:
"— Keniv, estou cansado dessa guerra de mentira, precisando de uma guerra de verdade. Ajude-me a inventar uma guerra. Contra o que podemos lutar?
— Deixe-me ver. Contra o sistema.
— Que sistema?
— Nenhum sistema em especial. Contra o sistema em si mesmo."
O segundo romance, Xarab fica, aprofunda a fantasia, e a própria Alfa Omega admite, na apresentação: "Mais uma vez, Ernesto Araújo surpreende". Cria novamente uma terra fictícia, Xarab, cidade marítima com um passado de guerras e que, embora tenha chegado à paz, "permanece inquieta, insatisfeita, sentindo que lhe cabe a missão de preservar algum tipo de segredo ou de virtude que o resto do mundo ignora".
Ainda em Bruxelas na época, o então terceiro-secretário, primeiro degrau na carreira diplomática, tem em Xarab seu mais longo e difícil livro, em que Auápnei, Glaraps, Ahalac e outros nomes impronunciáveis travam longos diálogos, mas desta vez com menos divagações filosóficas.
Em Quatro 3, lançado quando Ernesto servia na embaixada em Berlim, as reflexões são retomadas, novamente acenando aqui e ali ao chanceler que ele seria 18 anos depois.
Alguns trechos caberiam em suas postagens no Twitter:
"O Estado entorpece o homem. [...] O Estado é uma parede de concreto que nos esconde a verdadeira realidade e o abismo do mundo. [...] O Estado deveria existir para buscar tesouros, e não para organizar a coleta de lixo."
Ou ainda:
"Só entendo o Estado e o admito como instrumento da pátria. Pode haver pátria sem Estado, mas ultimamente inventaram esse monstro que é o Estado sem pátria. O Estado inibidor de pujanças, o Estado inibidor de pátrias. O próximo passo, repulsivo e podre, é o Estado mundial. Os Estados, em vez de lutarem uns contra os outros, vão se unir contra a humanidade."
Quatro 3 se apresenta como uma experiência literária, que "desafia a realidade e as convenções", "em que a humanidade parece cansada de sua aventura milenar e anseia pela paz perpétua do não-ser". "A cada página, [percebe-se] o esforço de defender o indivíduo contra a sociedade e abrir espaço para a transcendência."
Mas os romances não foram as primeiras incursões de Ernesto na literatura.
Em 1985, quando ainda cursava Letras na UnB, lançou, pela editora Roswitha Kempf, o livro de poemas Ocidente (1985), escrito durante o ensino médio. Com uma apresentação de Carlos Nejar, traz 51 textos, assumidamente "devaneios".
Diz a orelha do livro: " [...] ouvimos as primeiras impressões, sentimos os devaneios pelos quais o poeta Ernesto Araújo se lançou e se lança, navegando solitário e solidário pelo Ocidente, sua primeira viagem como eterno marinheiro".
O mar e as naus são os temas predominantes, e, apesar do título, não há nada no livro que sugira a cruzada que ele, ministro, empreenderia contra o "globalismo", acreditando estar salvando o que para ele é a cultura ocidental.
Os livros de Ernesto ainda podem ser encontrados no site da Alfa Ômega e em sebos, com preços que não passam de R$ 25 por exemplar. Preço bem menor do que outras obras que a editora lançou anos atrás no Brasil e que a notabilizaram: os textos clássicos do marxismo.