O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org.

sexta-feira, 12 de julho de 2013

Visão 2050: um novo mapa politico e economico do mundo (Post-Crisis World Institute, Moscou)

Um relatório do qual eu participei, no início deste ano, e do qual ainda não tinha tido notícias. Agora tenho.
Este foi o registro de minha participação:

2469. “Vision 2050: A New Political and Economic Map of the World”, Hartford, 2 Março 2013, 3 p. Respostas e comentários a pesquisa sobre o estado do mundo em 2050, submetida pelo instituto russo Post-Crisis World (www.postcrisisworld.org).

Aqui a correspondência recebida da editora do relatório:

Vision-2050. A New Political and Economic Map of the World
International research by the Post-Crisis World Institute
(Moscow: Post-Crisis World Institute, February-May 2013)

Dear Mr. de Almeida,

Let us express sincere gratitude for your participation in the expert survey undertaken in the frameworks of international exploration in February – May 2013 and introduce for your consideration the report “Vision-2050. A New Political and Economic Map of the World”, prepared in accordance with findings of the exploration.


Participants in the survey included economists and financial analysts, owners and top managers of leading companies, journalists who cover economics and politics, academics, politicians and officials from CIS countries, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia. Middle East, Africa, Latin America, USA, Canada, Australia –integrally more than 300 experts from 63 states of all inhabited continents.
* * *
"Liquid modernity” or “modernity free from illusions” as Zygmunt Bauman, a famous sociologist of Post-Modernism, characterized our times demonstrates not only high density of events within definite period of time. Quick changes take place in all spheres of human existence. The main trends and fundamental truths of yesterday are in question today.
As usually, thinking about our planet future, world intellectual elite are seeking corridors of opportunities. Post-Modernism epoch brings in these eternal searches its picturesque aspects, maximizing scale of choice ant trying to combine opposites.
In this situation we appealed to collective expertise of global thinking participants – to intellectual elite of different states and continents with questions of what main problems will humankind face in 2050, will these problems be overwhelmed, for the expense of what resources they will be overwhelmed, what states and regions will be successful in this and what states and regions will have less chances of success.
Within the process of the report drafting it was also undertaken a desk research of published sources: UN reports, documents of the World Bank, International Economic Forum other international research institutions, academic studies, feature materials and public speaking, ratings of international rating agencies and analytical centers.
We hope that results of our researches will be interesting and helpful for you. We would be glad to receive your comments, remarks and criticism.

With sincere hope for future cooperation
Tatiana Lekhanova
==============

Alguns trechos nos quais o relatório cita a minha opinião: 
(p. 10) Some in the expert community believe the current state of the world is best characterised as ‘global turmoil’, which began due to the transition to a new system of social relations and the absence of a clear trajectory for future development. 
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘Of course, the current “global turmoil” has no parallel with the Great Depression of the 1930s; some countries will decline slowly (France, probably Russia too), others more rapidly (Argentina, perhaps), and others, a small bunch, will be in ascendance (China, India, Brazil, etc).’

(p. 14, sobre problemas diversos, em especial sobre o envelhecimento gradual da população mundial):
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University Center of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘All the listed problems will eventually be present to some degree, here, there or elsewhere, at certain moments. None of them are insurmountable or capable of presenting a crucial menace for strong societies and solid states. Failed states (mainly in Africa, some in Asia, one or two in Latin America) could be severely impacted by some of these problems. They could face social and political stability, uneven economic development and continuing poverty, terrorism, corruption and so on; but none of the current big states and strong economies will perish because of any of them. However, ONE THING is certain: humankind will be older, inevitably, and that will represent a difficult economic challenge for all of them.’

(p. 23, sobre os grandes problemas geopolíticos, sociais e econômicos do mundo): 
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University
Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘There will be no MAJOR changes in the world scenario, but a progressive transformation in the economy and technology, with slight or minor changes in the fields of society and culture. As there will be no major or global conflict, the world will be in a continuous flux of new influences and forces, which are constantly drawing new responses from societies and nations. They will be based more on technological improvements than political transformation. In this field, the world will not differ much from today. Perhaps China will be more democratic, but there will still be populist and semidemocratic regimes elsewhere, mainly in Africa, the Middle East and Islamic countries.’

(p. 34, sobre a evolução do mundo, se vai ser reformista ou revolucionária:)
It will prompt a more active resolution of existing structural problems and “internal democratization” in line
with the Chinese model.’
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub)
‘There will be no revolutionary development of any kind, but some minor revolutions in technology, health sciences, agronomic sciences, electronics, new materials, nanotechnology and so on… Revolutions are for backward societies.’

(p. 39-40: sobre planejamento governamental, ou tendências de mercado:)
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘[State planning is] not as easy as some people think. State bureaucrats are conservative, narrow-minded, too lazy and not very productive. Some good bureaucracies which are based on merit, a system of benchmarking and market-like inducements can perform well, as the cases of Korea and China illustrate. However, for this you need to have real statesmen in charge, not traditional (and sometimes corrupt) politicians. The best way is still to have high-quality human capital, plenty of inducements for innovation and technological advancement, starting with good science and strong competition among economic agents. In other words, a market-based system, perhaps guided by Illustrated Bureaucrats.’

(p. 52, sobre esgotamento de recursos naturais:)
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University
Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘The new world order will not be very different from the old, that is, our own. Both can cope with the problem of natural resources through technological advancements.’

(p. 58: sobre o papel das elites nas sociedades contemporâneas:)
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘An educated elite is crucial to guide resources for the construction of a national system of education (at all levels), characterized by excellence, performance, meritocracy and material rewards.’

(p. 87, sobre o papel das instituições e da liberdade:)
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘Despite shortcomings, they have some credibility in terms of assessing real problems. This is not exactly true of the UN, but it is certainly true of the USA and most NATO countries, which are effectively democratic and subject to scrutiny by scientists, citizens, a free press and diversity of opinions. Autocratic countries like China, Russia and some others do not have all this.’

(p. 96, sobre minha desconfiança em relação às atuais lideranças mundiais:)
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Brazil, diplomat and professor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and University Centre of Brasilia (UniCeub): 
‘I see no-one at the moment. The world is suffering from a complete absence of great leaders. Many of them are not really international leaders, only state leaders with some projection abroad. Most of them are really mediocre.’

Boa leitura: 

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