Observem que o professor americano, membro do Belfer Center, não fala sequer em competição militar, mas em RIVALIDADE, ou seja, confrontação. Graham Allison é autor do livro sobre a inevitável guerra entre as duas grandes potências, sob a inacreditavelmente FALSA ANALOGIA da "Armadilha de Tucídides". Ele começa falando de rivalidade militar "China vs USA", como se essa fosse a realidade.
Não se trata sequer de uma competição ou rivalidade EUA-China, e sim de uma postura adversária UNILATERALMENTE DECIDIDA entre os EUA e a China, sendo que esta jamais descreveu a relação bilateral em termos tão diretamente confrontacionistas. Os americanos decididamente enlouqueceram, pois não admitem que qualquer outro poder possa sequer chegar a igualar, ou equiparar-se em capacidade de projeção, sua própria primazia hegemônica, que eles imaginam ser não apenas eterna, como inevitável, necessária e benéfica para toda a humanidade.
Os chineses precisam manter a calma, nos próximos 50 anos, período no qual sua primazia tecnológica e militar terá condições de alcançar e talvez superar a dos EUA.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
The Great Military Rivalry: China vs. the U.S.
The Harvard China Working Group has just completed the next installment in our series on the “Great Rivalry” between the U.S. and China. The first paper, on the Great Tech Rivalry, reported an uncomfortable finding: on current trajectories, China could become the global leader within the next decade in every one of the 21st century’s foundational technologies. Our second paper on the Great Military Rivalry documents what has happened in the military competition between China and the U.S. since 2000. While America’s position as a global military superpower remains unique, China has made great leaps forward on many fronts. What that means for the bottom line is that the era of American military primacy is over—dead, buried, gone. Indeed, in the most likely scenario of conflict between the U.S. and China—a hot war over Taiwan—America could very well lose. Unfortunately, too many politicians and pundits have missed the harsh realities of a grave new world. One leader who recognized China’s military rise and spoke bluntly about its consequences is former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. His 2018 National Defense Strategy states directly: “for decades the U.S. has enjoyed uncontested or dominant superiority in every operating domain… Today, every domain is contested—air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace.” The reason for finally confronting ugly realities is not to discourage, or counsel defeatism, but to motivate political and military leaders to act now to change current trendlines. The decisions that can have the greatest positive impact are the hardest to make and execute. If you have a chance to look at the paper and have reactions, we’ll be eager to hear from you. For those interested in a shorter version of the argument, see my recent op-ed for The National Interest. A slide deckprovides a visual illustration of the paper’s key findings. Graham Allison |
