Os acadêmicos americanos decididamente enlouqueceram com a "competição" chinesa - Graham Allison (Harvard)

  Observem que o professor americano, membro do Belfer Center, não fala sequer em competição militar, mas em RIVALIDADE, ou seja, confrontação. Graham Allison é autor do livro sobre a inevitável guerra entre as duas grandes potências, sob a inacreditavelmente FALSA ANALOGIA da "Armadilha de Tucídides". Ele começa falando de rivalidade militar "China vs USA", como se essa fosse a realidade.

Não se trata sequer de uma competição ou rivalidade EUA-China, e sim de uma postura adversária UNILATERALMENTE DECIDIDA entre os EUA e a China, sendo que esta jamais descreveu a relação bilateral em termos tão diretamente confrontacionistas. Os americanos decididamente enlouqueceram, pois não admitem que qualquer outro poder possa sequer chegar a igualar, ou equiparar-se em capacidade de projeção, sua própria primazia hegemônica, que eles imaginam ser não apenas eterna, como inevitável, necessária e benéfica para toda a humanidade.

Os chineses precisam manter a calma, nos próximos 50 anos, período no qual sua primazia tecnológica e militar terá condições de alcançar e talvez superar a dos EUA.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The Great Military Rivalry: China vs. the U.S.

The Harvard China Working Group has just completed the next installment in our series on the “Great Rivalry” between the U.S. and China. The first paper, on the Great Tech Rivalry, reported an uncomfortable finding: on current trajectories, China could become the global leader within the next decade in every one of the 21st century’s foundational technologies. Our second paper on the Great Military Rivalry documents what has happened in the military competition between China and the U.S. since 2000. While America’s position as a global military superpower remains unique, China has made great leaps forward on many fronts. What that means for the bottom line is that the era of American military primacy is over—dead, buried, gone. Indeed, in the most likely scenario of conflict between the U.S. and China—a hot war over Taiwan—America could very well lose. Unfortunately, too many politicians and pundits have missed the harsh realities of a grave new world. One leader who recognized China’s military rise and spoke bluntly about its consequences is former Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. His 2018 National Defense Strategy states directly: “for decades the U.S. has enjoyed uncontested or dominant superiority in every operating domain… Today, every domain is contested—air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace.” The reason for finally confronting ugly realities is not to discourage, or counsel defeatism, but to motivate political and military leaders to act now to change current trendlines. The decisions that can have the greatest positive impact are the hardest to make and execute. If you have a chance to look at the paper and have reactions, we’ll be eager to hear from you.  For those interested in a shorter version of the argument, see my recent op-ed for The National Interest. A slide deckprovides a visual illustration of the paper’s key findings. Graham Allison Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School Read the Paper Follow me on Twitter

National Digital Currencies: The Future of Money? - Belfer Center (Harvard University)

National Digital Currencies: The Future of Money?

Tomorrow’s money will live in your smartphone, not your wallet. Spurred by the potential to modernize domestic payments systems or to take a leading role in updating the global payments infrastructure, nations around the globe are exploring whether to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital form of a country’s fiat currency. China, for example, began piloting a national digital currency last month. The European Central Bank has convened a working group of major economies to coordinate digital currency research and development. The U.S. Federal Reserve said it was in the early stages of researching the digital dollar.  But what are the risks and rewards of this shift? And how might it impact the decades-long dominance of the U.S. dollar? A new project from the Belfer Center’s Economic Diplomacy Initiativeand the Atlantic Council’s Global Business and Economics Center will track the rise of digital currencies around the globe. A color-coded map provides a snapshot of where countries stand – research, development, pilot, and launched – in deploying a CBDC, along with an overview of national efforts. “Digital currencies could substantially reshuffle traditional instruments of economic diplomacy,” said Aditi Kumar, Executive Director of the Belfer Center. “Through this project, we’ll closely monitor digital currency developments and how countries position themselves in the evolving global economic environment.” This financial innovation carries significant legal, economic, and operational risks. National digital currencies could give governments the capability to surveil users – good for tracking criminals, but a concern for the privacy of ordinary citizens. Business models for banks and payments platforms would need to change if people are using government-provided digital cash. And central banks would need to ramp up their operational capabilities to manage a digital currency. “Central banks are not only regulators, as we have seen in the past months, they can drive economic growth and innovation,” said Josh Lipsky, Director of the Atlantic Council’s Global Economics program and a fellow at the Belfer Center’s Economic Diplomacy Initiative. “That spirit of innovation needs to come into play with CBDCs. The evolution of money is happening and it’s important for central banks to help lead the transformation.”

View the Project »

Global History: Harvard Fellowships, candidates have until December 15 to apply

Receboio, de H-Net, este aviso:

Weatherhead Initiative on Global History Fellowship

The Weatherhead Initiative on Global History (WIGH) at Harvard University identifies and supports outstanding scholars whose work responds to the growing interest in the encompassing study of global history. We seek to organize a community of scholars interested in the systematic scrutiny of developments that have unfolded across national, regional, and continental boundaries and who propose to analyze the interconnections—cultural, economic, ecological, political and demographic—among world societies. We encourage applicants from all over the world, and especially from outside Europe and North America, hoping to create a global conversation on global history.

WIGH Fellows are appointed for one year and are provided time, guidance, office space, and access to Harvard University facilities. They should be prepared to devote their entire time to productive scholarship and may undertake sustained projects of research or other original work. They will join a vibrant community of global history scholars at Harvard.

This fellowship is funded by a grant from the Volkswagen Foundation.

Terms
The competition for these awards is open only to scholars with a PhD (or comparable professional school degree). If still pursuing the PhD, WIGH Fellows must receive their degree no later than May 2016. There is no limit on time since submission of the candidate’s degree; we are open to candidates at various stages of their careers. We expect that candidates will be able to submit samples of independent work (articles, papers, dissertation chapters) in support of their candidacies on request. The WIGH Fellowship is residential and Fellows are expected to live in the Cambridge/Boston area for the duration of their appointments unless traveling for pre-approved research purposes, and they are expected to participate in WIGH activities, including a bi-weekly seminar.

Fellows will receive an annual stipend of up to $50,000, according to fellows’ needs. Because we cannot always offer the amount requested, we urge applicants to apply for funding from other sources as well. Applications are welcome from qualified persons without regard to nationality, gender, or race.

How to Apply
Applications are due December 15, 2015. Letters of reference are due by January 8th, 2016.
Please visit our website (http://wigh.wcfia.harvard.edu/content/wigh-fellowships-2016-2017) to apply.

Contact:
Jessica Barnard, Program Coordinator
jbarnard@wcfia.harvard.edu
Phone: +011 (617) 495-8923