A frase da semana: bits and bytes, bullets and bombs...

"No século 21, bits e bytes podem ser tão perigosos como balas e bombas.”

Vice-secretário de Defesa americano, William Lynn.

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional – RBPI (1/2011)

Anunciamos o lançamento do número 1 do Volume 54 (1/2011) da Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional – RBPI, cujo sumário se vê abaixo.

Esta edição traz as seguintes contribuições:

Editorial

Guerra e Paz, traduções do nosso tempo, por Antônio Carlos Lessa

Artigos
Guerra Fria na Região Amazônica: um estudo da Missão Venturini no Suriname (1983), por Carlos Federico Dominguez Ávila
América Latina a inicios de la segunda década Del siglo XXI: entre El regionalismo estratégico y la regionalización fragmentada, por Lincoln Bizzorero
“Depois aconteça o que acontecer”: por uma rediscussão do Caso Panther e da política externa de Rio Branco: por Renato Amado Peixoto
A política externa brasileira e a “circunstância democrática”: do silêncio respeitoso à politização ruidosa, por Dawisson Belém Lopes
A União Européia como potência global? As alterações do Tratado de Lisboa na política externa e de defesa, por Antonio Goucha Soares
Los desafios a la reunificación de China y Taiwan: la Ley Antisecesión (2005) y El Acuerdo Marco de Cooperación Econômica (2010), por Isabel Rodriguez Aranda
Terrosim as war by other means: national security and state support for terrorism, por Faruk Ekmekci
Human Rights promotion in Serbia: a difficult task for the European Union, por Teresa Maria Cierco
De como o Brasil quase se tornou membro permanente do Conselho de Segurança da ONU em 1945, por Eugênio V. Garcia
Identity and the concept of the West: the case of Brazil and Índia, por Oliver Stunkel

Obituário
Katia de Queiroz Mattoso: obituário de um membro do Conselho da RBPI, por Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Venezuela: "a revolucao é eterna"; e o caudilho?

Bem, ele acredita que sim...

Venezuela: Chávez dice que su revolución es “eterna”
El presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, llamó este jueves a acelerar la transición del capitalismo hacia el socialismo bolivariano cantando en un acto de celebración del Bicentenario de la Independencia en Caracas, donde aseguró que la revolución socialista que lidera desde hace doce años es "eterna" y "más nunca" se irá del país.

En un consejo de ministros desde el Palacio de Miraflores en Caracas, Chávez instó a los venezolanos profundizar en el proceso de construcción del modelo socialista “con la planificación científica y luego en lo práctico”.

“Tenemos que avanzar mucho más hacia nuestro socialismo, el socialismo que está contenido en este proyecto constitucional. Socialismo a lo venezolano”, expresó Chávez.

El presidente de Venezuela, quien se encuentra en proceso de recuperación médica tras haber sido intervenido quirúrgicamente por un tumor canceroso, descartó nuevamente que hubiese algún tipo de pacto con factores de la derecha que buscan una supuesta “transición”.

“La única transición que habrá será la del capitalismo hacia el socialismo venezolano”, resaltó el mandatario, luego de agradecer el despliegue de su gobierno “en estos días especiales que he tenido que pasar en mi cuartel de retaguardia”.

Chávez enfatizó que mantiene su riguroso tratamiento y dedicó la primera parte de su intervención a recordar la importancia de los 200 años de la Firma del Acta de la Independencia de Venezuela.

Vestido con traje militar, el mandatario dio un breve discurso televisado en el que indicó que el cáncer que sufre le ha hecho sentir “un millón de veces más de amor” por su pueblo y por sí mismo y reiteró que está convencido de vencer esta “batalla” por la vida.

Chávez regresó a Venezuela el pasado día 4 tras ser intervenido de un tumor canceroso en Cuba y desde entonces mantiene un estricto plan de recuperación, que según dijo ayer ha entrado en una nueva etapa en la que podría ser necesario que se someta a radio y quimioterapia.

“Pa’lante es que vamos, como la Vinotinto anoche”, señaló Chávez al referirse a la selección de fútbol del país, que ayer empató 3-3 con Paraguay, durante los actos de celebración de los 200 años de la aprobación e izada de la Bandera Nacional el 14 de julio de 1811.

El gobernante juró que seguirá haciendo “todo lo que tenga que hacer” para vencer esta “difícil” batalla”. “Se lo juro un millón de veces viviré, viviremos, para la patria, para la vida”, exclamó.

“Nació nuestra revolución ahora comenzando el siglo XXI para convertirse en la revolución eterna, en la revolución permanente, en la revolución perpetua”, gritó.

Chávez terminó el acto cantando de forma animada música tradicional llanera junto al cantante popular Cristobal Jiménez en una plaza abarrotada por seguidores del presidente.

Desde que regresó a Venezuela, Chávez hace habitualmente comentarios a través de la red social Twitter y en intervenciones en la televisión nacional, pero no se ha prodigado en actos públicos.

========

Saúde ao coma andante...

Vou dar um pulinho em Washington e ja volto... (a book, of course...)

Se alguém tiver uma passagem sobrando, ou milhas em excesso, favor avisar.
Bem que gostaria de assistir a esse lançamento. O livro vai demorar um pouco para entrar no Abebooks (em todo caso, cabe conferir...). [Já conferi: abaixo...]

Hudson Institute cordially invites you to a book forum on...

History of the Future: The Shape of the World to Come Is Visible Today
Monday, July 18
12:00 PM - 2:00 PM

Human character has always been shaped by struggles against poverty, tyranny, and war. Hudson Institute co-founder and Senior Fellow Max Singer’s new book, History of the Future: The Shape of the World to Come Is Visible Today (Lexington Books), argues that poverty, tyranny, and war will be largely eliminated in the future. Without the struggles that have plagued humanity throughout history, Singer says we will have to find new ways to shape character. In this work which continues the research into the future that Singer began with Herman Kahn a half-century ago, Singer asks the important question: Will people really be better off when the whole world has become wealthy, free, and peaceful?

Professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of New York University praises History of the Future, noting that “anyone who wants to understand where the world of politics, economics, and freedom is headed must read this book.”

Singer is a Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute and at the BESA Institute of Bar Ilan University in Israel. He is the author of Passage to a Human World: The Dynamics of Creating Global Wealth, with a foreword by Irving Kristol (Transaction Publishers, 2d ed. 1989); and of The REAL World Order: Zones of Peace/Zones of Turmoil, with Aaron Wildavsky (Chatham House, rev’d ed. 1996).

Hudson Institute has convened an illustrious panel to offer their thoughts on Singer’s insightful new work. Joining Singer to discuss the book will be Hillel Fradkin, Hudson Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Islam, Democracy and the Future of the Muslim World; Carol Lancaster, Dean of the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University; and Michael Mandelbaum, Christian A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy at The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Hudson President and CEO Kenneth Weinstein will host and provide introductions for the event.

===========

Sacré Abeboks: já tem o livro, mas ainda está muito caro. Convém esperar um pouco...

History of the Future: The Shape of the World to Come Is Visible Today

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Impossible growth - Kenneth Rogoff

Too Much Debt Means the Economy Can’t Grow
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff
Bloomberg News, July 14, 2011

As public debt in advanced countries reaches levels not seen since the end of World War II, there is considerable debate about the urgency of taming deficits with the aim of stabilizing and ultimately reducing debt as a percentage of gross domestic product.

Our empirical research on the history of financial crises and the relationship between growth and public liabilities supports the view that current debt trajectories are a risk to long-term growth and stability, with many advanced economies already reaching or exceeding the important marker of 90 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, many prominent public intellectuals continue to argue that debt phobia is wildly overblown. Countries such as the U.S., Japan and the U.K. aren’t like Greece, nor does the market treat them as such.

Indeed, there is a growing perception that today’s low interest rates for the debt of advanced economies offer a compelling reason to begin another round of massive fiscal stimulus. If Asian nations are spinning off huge excess savings partly as a byproduct of measures that effectively force low- income savers to put their money in bank accounts with low government-imposed interest-rate ceilings -- why not take advantage of the cheap money?

Although we agree that governments must exercise caution in gradually reducing crisis-response spending, we think it would be folly to take comfort in today’s low borrowing costs, much less to interpret them as an “all clear” signal for a further explosion of debt.

Changing Interest Rates

Several studies of financial crises show that interest rates seldom indicate problems long in advance. In fact, we should probably be particularly concerned today because a growing share of advanced country debt is held by official creditors whose current willingness to forego short-term returns doesn’t guarantee there will be a captive audience for debt in perpetuity.

Those who would point to low servicing costs should remember that market interest rates can change like the weather. Debt levels, by contrast, can’t be brought down quickly. Even though politicians everywhere like to argue that their country will expand its way out of debt, our historical research suggests that growth alone is rarely enough to achieve that with the debt levels we are experiencing today.

While we expect to see more than one member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development default or restructure their debt before the European crisis is resolved, that isn’t the greatest threat to most advanced economies. The biggest risk is that debt will accumulate until the overhang weighs on growth.

Historical Precedents

At what point does indebtedness become a problem? In our study “Growth in a Time of Debt,” we found relatively little association between public liabilities and growth for debt levels of less than 90 percent of GDP. But burdens above 90 percent are associated with 1 percent lower median growth. Our results are based on a data set of public debt covering 44 countries for up to 200 years. The annual data set incorporates more than 3,700 observations spanning a wide range of political and historical circumstances, legal structures and monetary regimes.

We aren’t suggesting there is a bright red line at 90 percent; our results don’t imply that 89 percent is a safe debt level, or that 91 percent is necessarily catastrophic. Anyone familiar with doing empirical research understands that vulnerability to crises and anemic growth seldom depends on a single factor such as public debt. However, our study of crises shows that public obligations are often hidden and significantly larger than official figures suggest.

Creative Accounting Devices

In addition, off-balance sheet guarantees and other creative accounting devices make it even harder to assess the true nature of a country’s debt until a crisis forces everything out into the open. (Just think of the giant U.S. mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose debt was never officially guaranteed before the 2008 meltdown.)

There also is the question of how broad a measure of public debt to use. Our empirical work concentrates on central- government obligations because state and local data are so limited across time and countries, and government guarantees, as noted, are difficult to quantify over time. (Until we developed our data set, no long-dated cross-country information on central government debt existed.) But state and local debt are important because they so frequently trigger federal government bailouts in a crisis. Official figures for state debts don’t include chronic late payments (arrears), which are substantial in Illinois and California, for example.

Public and Private Debt

Indeed, it isn’t unusual for governments to absorb large chunks of troubled private debt in a crisis. Taking this into account, chart 1, attached, shows the extraordinarily high level of overall U.S. debts, public and private.

In addition to ex-ante or ex-post government guarantees and other forms of “hidden debts,” any discussion of public liabilities should take into account the demographic challenges across the industrialized world. Our 90 percent threshold is largely based on earlier periods when old-age pensions and health-care costs hadn’t grown to anything near the size they are today. Surely this makes the burden of debt greater.

There is a growing sense that inflation is the endgame to debt buildups. For emerging markets that has often been the case, but for advanced economies, the historical correlation is weaker. Part of the reason for this apparent paradox may be that, especially after World War II, many governments enacted policies that amounted to heavy financial repression, including interest- rate ceilings and non-market debt placement. Low statutory interest rates allowed governments to reduce real debt burdens through moderate inflation over a sustained period. Of course, this time could be different, and we shouldn’t entirely dismiss the possibility of elevated inflation as the antidote to debt.

Extremely Rare

Those who remain unconvinced that rising debt levels pose a risk to growth should ask themselves why, historically, levels of debt of more than 90 percent of GDP are relatively rare and those exceeding 120 percent are extremely rare (see attached chart 2 for U.S. public debt since 1790). Is it because generations of politicians failed to realize that they could have kept spending without risk? Or, more likely, is it because at some point, even advanced economies hit a ceiling where the pressure of rising borrowing costs forces policy makers to increase tax rates and cut government spending, sometimes precipitously, and sometimes in conjunction with inflation and financial repression (which is also a tax)?

Even absent high interest rates, as Japan highlights, debt overhangs are a hindrance to growth.

The relationship between growth, inflation and debt, no doubt, merits further study; it is a question that cannot be settled with mere rhetoric, no matter how superficially convincing.

In the meantime, historical experience and early examination of new data suggest the need to be cautious about surrendering to “this-time-is-different” syndrome and decreeing that surging government debt isn’t as significant a problem in the present as it was in the past.

(Carmen M. Reinhart is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Kenneth S. Rogoff is a professor of economics at Harvard University. They are co-authors of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.” The opinions expressed are their own.)

For more Bloomberg View op-eds.

To contact the writers of this column: Carmen M. Reinhart in Washington at creinhart@piie.com Kenneth S. Rogoff in Cambridge, Massachusetts, at krogoff@harvard.edu .

To contact the editor responsible for this column: Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net .

Find out more about Bloomberg for iPad: http://m.bloomberg.com/ipad/

Pausa para... medidas preventivas (ops, cinto de castidade para homens)

A vida está ficando perigosa, sobretudo para quem pensa em se divorciar...
Está na hora de pensar em certos cuidados elementares, com ativos especialmente preciosos...

Woman Accused of Severing Husband's Privates
By Stephen Spencer Davis
Slate, Wednesday, Jul. 13, 2011, at 10:41 AM EDT

Suspect tells police that the man “deserved it.”

A California woman could face life in prison after she allegedly drugged her husband, severed his penis with a kitchen knife, and then ground it up in a garbage disposal.

According to the Los Angeles Times, police arrived at the couple's home on Monday night to find the man tied to a bed and bleeding from his groin. In what the police described as a “spontaneous statement,” the woman, 48-year-old Catherine Kieu Becker, explained to officers what she had done, saying that her husband “deserved it.”

Although details of the incident remain sparse, the alleged crime will undoubtedly have people heading to Wikipedia for a refresher on Lorena Bobbitt, who infamously severed her husband’s penis in 1993.

Court records indicate that Becker and her husband were married a year and a half ago but began divorce proceedings in May. Police say they have no motive for the brutal act, but records suggest that it was the husband who initiated the divorce.

"On the surface, we have nothing more than the divorce proceeding," Lt. Jeff Nightengale of the Garden Grove Police Department told the Times. "We don't have any strong motive leading to this level of violence."

The severity of Becker’s alleged crime led detectives to classify it as “aggravated mayhem,” an offense punishable by life in prison.

The 51-year-old man, whose name has not been released, was taken to hospital for emergency surgery. Nightengale told ABC News that the man is in stable condition, but had no details on the surgery.

“Police were able to recover portions of the penis from the garbage disposal,” Nightengale said, but it was unclear if doctors would be able to reattach it.

Becker is currently being held on $1 million bail.

Os professores estao comecando a ficar furiosos: comparam salários (que absurdo!)

Só posso interpretar como frustração de carreira o movimento desses professores que ficam espalhando em nossas caixas de entrada correntes como a que segue abaixo.
Como é que eles pretendem, com suas aulinhas mal dadas, comparar-se a gênios da bola e a craques da política como esses que eles citam?
Um futebolista é um ser especial, que traz a alegria para os corações ansiosos de milhões de iluminados (inclusive professores que gostam de futebol e que torcem por algum time).
Um político é normalmente um representante de categorias profissionais, que está lá no Congreso para defender aumento de salários para categorias tão sofridas quanto a dos professores. Se eles não existissem, para quem -- ou de quem -- os professores poderiam reclamar? Por isso eles merecem os altos salários e outras prebendas que exibem, desavergonhadamente.
Os professores deveriam mirar-se nesses exemplos de cidadãos bem sucedidos e parar de reclamar.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Você estudou? - BEM FEITO!

Ronaldinho Gaúcho : R$ 1.400.000,00 por mês.
"Homenageado e condecorado pela Academia Brasileira de Letras"

Tiririca : R$ 36.000,00 por mês, fora os auxílios e mordomias;
- Mesmo sendo analfabeto, é "Membro da Comissão de Educação e Cultura do Congresso"...

Neymar jogador do Santos R$ 1.100.000,00 pormês e a partir de Setembro: R$1.500.000,00
Deixou de estudar na 8a. série, sem terminar.

Piso Nacional dos professores: R$ 1.187,00...

Moral da História:
Os professores ganham pouco é porque só servem para ensinar coisas inúteis, como ler, escrever e pensar.

Sugestão:
Mudar a grade curricular das escolas, que passaria a ter as seguintes matérias:
- Educação Física:
- Futebol
- Circo
- Música (Sertaneja, Pagode, Axé)
- História:
- Grandes Personagens da Corrupção Brasileira
- Biografia dos Heróis do Big Brother do Bial
- Involução do Pensamento das "Celebridades"
- História da Arte: De Carla Perez a Faustão
- Matemática:
- Multiplicação Fraudulenta do Dinheiro de Campanha
- Multiplicação dos seus ganhos 20 vezes a mais
- Cálculo Percentual de Comissões e Propinas
- Técnicas de "Como Fraudar o Fisco", "Como Abrir Empresas-Fantasma",
- "Como Aliciar Laranjas"
- Português e Literatura: Para quê? O último "prizidente" orgulhava-se de jamais ter lido um livro! E de sua mãe ter nascida analfabeta!
- Biologia, Física e Química: Desnecessárias, por excesso de complexidade.
- Educação Moral e Cívica: Manual do Guerrilheiro Urbano, Como Preparar Bombas Caseiras)

Assim está ecrito: "No final dos tempos, o homem sentirá vergonha de ser honesto."

=================

Paradoxo final (PRA):
Mesmo constatando tudo isso, professores, orientados por suas máfias sindicais, acabam votando por esses mesmos que prolongam sua agonia, especialistas nas disciplinas elencadas com tanta competência e bom humor...