O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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sábado, 18 de janeiro de 2020

Google Scholar: citações a trabalhos de Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Google Scholar: citações a trabalhos de Paulo Roberto de Almeida

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PR Almeida, Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 47 (1), 162-1842812004


Grande Oriente do Brasil



Revista de Sociologia e Política

Revista brasileira de política internacional 49 (1) 

Cena Internacional 9 (1), 7-36

UFRGS Editora

Revista brasileira de política internacional 53 (2), 160-177

Braz. J. Int'l L. 2, 20312005

José Flávio Sombra Saraiva, Relações internacionais: dois séculos de


Revista brasileira de política internacional 44 (1), 112-136302001

Carta internacional 2 (1)

Instituto Millenium

Editora Saraiva

Contexto Internacional 12 (1)

MC Lima, PR Almeida

International Journal of Technology Management 10 (2-3), 214-229

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 36 (1), 11-36

National Defense Strategy: Dissident Comments], Meridiano 47

Sessenta anos de política externa brasileira (1930-1990). Crescimento …

Revista de Informação Legislativa, Brasília

Política externa 19 (2), 27-40

Política externa 3 (1)

Parcerias estratégicas 18, 157-190

Cena Internacional 3 (2)

Revista de Geopolítica 1 (2), 5-20

Contexto internacional 35 (2), 471-495

Mercosul, NAFTA e ALCA: a dimensão social. São Paulo: LTr

BAUMANN, Renato. O Brasil e os demais BRICS–Comércio e Política. Brasília …

Colunas de RelNet nº13, mês, 1-6


Rio de Janeiro, Lúmen Júris


Meridiano 47-Boletim de Análise de Conjuntura em Relações Internacionais, 11-14

Revista Estudos Históricos 1 (27), 31-62

PR Almeida, Y Chaloult
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 42 (2), 145-160, 1999

Brasília: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão1992

Cena internacional 10 (2), 72-972008

PR de Almeida
Contexto Internacional 26 (1), 72004

Reformas no Brasil: balanço e agenda, 2004

Revista de economia e relações internacionais 1 (2), 05-17, 2003

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 1 (10), 2002

Revista de Sociologia e Política, 35-66, 1999

Política e Estratégia, São Paulo 5 (4), 486-495, 1987

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 45 (2), 229-239, 2002

Sessenta Anos de Política Externa Brasileira (1930-1990) 4, 381-447, 2000

Boletim de Integração Latino-Americana, 1995

Revista espaço acadêmico 10 (119), 106-114, 2011


Interpretações divergentes sobre a, 2006

MAZZUOLI, Valério de Oliveira; SILVA, Roberto Luiz (Coords.). O Brasil e os …, 2003

Hipólito José da Costa e o Correio Braziliense: Estudos. São Paulo: Imprensa…,. 2002

Revista Brasileira Política Internacional, Brasília, DF 29 (115), 83-90, 1986

São Paulo em Perspectiva 16 (1), 3-162002

O que ler na Ciência Social Brasileira (1970-1995): Ciência Política 3, 191-255, 1999

São Paulo: Edicões Aduaneiras, 2007


Cadernos Adenauer 2, 37-56, 2000

Contexto Internacional 19 (2), 1997

Boletim de Integração Latino-Americana 14, 1994

Contexto Internacional 14 (2), 161, 1992

Estudos avançados 5 (12), 187-203, 1991


Braz. J. Int'l L. 10, 11, 2013


O Mercosul no limiar do século XXI. São Paulo: Cortez, 17-26, 2000

Temas & Matizes 7 (14), 73-95, 2008

Carta Internacional 1 (1), 03-04, 2006


Chaloult e Almeida (orgs.), 132-146, 1999

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 41 (SPE), 42-65, 1998

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 40 (2), 76-105, 1997

Liberalization of Services and Intellectual Property in the Uruguay Round of …, 1990

Carta Internacional 9 (1), 79-932014

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 10 (113), 38-45, 2010

Carta Internacional 1 (2), 6-10, 2006

O Crescimento e As Relações Internacionais no Brasil, Instituto Brasileiro …, 2005

Seminário O Brasil e a Alca. Brasília: IPRI, 2002

Y ChaloultMercosul, NAFTA e ALCA: A Dimensão Social, São Paulo, Ltr, 38-68, 1999

Revista brasileira de política internacional 41 (SPE), 85-98, 1998

PR ALMEIDA

Revista espaço acadêmico 10 (120), 114-119, 2011

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 53 (2), 217-218, 2010

Revista Intellector-ISSN 1807-1260-CENEGRI 5 (09), 01-32, 2008

Meridiano 47 4 (32-33), 3, 2003

Preparado para libro en homenaje al Dr. Werter Faria, edición coordinada por …, 2001

Meridiano 47-Journal of Global Studies 7 (77), 7-17, 1993

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 10 (114), 165-173, 2010

Parcerias Estratégicas 9 (19), 319-333, 2010

Parcerias Estratégicas 10 (21), 301-314, 2010


Revista Espaço Acadêmico 9 (101), 41-50, 2009

M Diaz, PR Almeida
Stanley Foundation, 2008

Meridiano 47-Journal of Global Studies 9 (95), 2-4, 2008

Unpublished paper, updated September 25, 2006

Meridiano 47 6 (59), 133, 2005

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 47 (2), 223-226, 2004

Meridiano 47-Journal of Global Studies 5 (42-43), 11-14, 2004

Meridiano 47 4 (30-31), 1, 2003

PR Almeida, FR Fins
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 44 (1), 151-154, 2001

Resgate: Revista Interdisciplinar de Cultura 2 (2), 33-52, 1991

VII Annual Meetings of the Hewlett/UIUC Project on Brazil: Brazil in a Neo …

AC Lessa, PR Almeida
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 55 (2), 5-9, 2012


Revista Espaço Acadêmico 11 (121), 67-73, 2010

Plenarium, 2009

2008


Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 49 (1), 95-116, 2006

Meridiano 47 6 (61), 8, 2005

Idem, A Grande Mudança: conseqüências econômicas da transição política no …, 2003

Relações Internacionais: Visões do Brasil e da América Latina. Brasília …, 2003

2002

Meridiano 47 3 (23-24), 162, 2002

Carlos Delgado de Carvalho, História Diplomática do Brasil, 1998

PR de Almeida, FR Fins
Via Mundi, Boletim de análise do estado da arte em relações internacionais … 

Current Challenges, Especially in Mercosur (April 13, 2018), 2018

Monções: Revista de Relações Internacionais da UFGD 4 (7), 113-130, 2018

Revista da Escola de Guerra Naval 17 (2), 7-28, 2011

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 10 (109), 12-26, 2010

Meridiano 47-Boletim de Análise de Conjuntura em Relações Internacionais, 2010

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 9 (106), 131-138, 2010

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 9 (100), 142-150, 2009

Meridiano 47 7 (76), 15, 2006

Meridiano 47 7 (76), 24, 2006

Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar, 21-36, 2006

AC Lessa, PR Almeida
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 47 (1), 1-2, 2004

Meridiano 47 3 (22), 14, 2002

2001

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 1 (04), 2001

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 40 (2), 183-185, 1997

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 40 (1), 222-231, 1997

MARTINS, Estevão C. de Rezende

Meridiano 47-Journal of Global Studies 7 (76), 15-23

Meridiano 47-Journal of Global Studies 3 (28-29), 18-21,

Relações Internacionais (R: I), 43-63, 2018

2018

MISES: Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy, Law and Economics 6 (1)2018

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 58 (1), 127-1412015

Iran-USA: "Hybrid" Wars Confront « Might Makes Right » - Alfredo G. A. Valladão (Paris)

             Published January 15, 2020
          
O P I N I O N 


Iran-USA: "Hybrid" Wars Confront « Might Makes Right »

Alfredo G. A. Valladão
Professor Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA – Sciences Po)
Senior Felllow Policy Center for the New South


The drone strike that claimed the life of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani unmasks the limits of so-called "hybrid" – or "asymmetric" – strategies. These low-intensity military operations, conducted through unofficial paramilitary forces, are suppose to allow a weaker state to gain geopolitical advantages without risking an open war with a stronger one. The idea is to gradually accumulate small tactical victories by capitalizing on more powerful states’ lack of appetite for distant major military interventions. In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin was able to profit from the fact that neither the Americans nor the Europeans were ready to die for Kiev.

As for the US, fatigue about playing the role of "world policeman" does not date from the Trump administration. Under Barack Obama’s government confronted with the Afghan and Iraqi quagmires, it was no longer possible to continue risking American lives and riches in endless, fragmented local conflicts, with no prospect of victory. The US military forces cannot afford anymore to get bogged down by swarms of Lilliputian fighters (terrorists, militias, proxys…) far away from home. This is not traditional American "isolationism", just a much more down to earth consideration: the United States’ tremendous military superiority should solely be used – overwhelmingly – when there is a direct threat to the country’s strategic interests. Exit “regime change”, exporting democracy or playing sugar daddy to allies’ quarrels. Give-and-take: an agenda that got Donald Trump elected.

Washington therefore, has lost much interest in local Middle East political games.  Today, the only strategic priorities of America’s state apparatus boil down to maintaining its influence on world oil prices by securing production and flows through the Strait of Hormuz, guaranteeing the integrity of the State of Israel and preventing the rebirth of a new terrorist territorial “caliphate”. Even access to Gulf oil reserves is no longer a prime concern, thanks to the domestic shale oil and gas industries, while American dwindling imports from the region account for only 9%. As for the myriad of interstate and sub-state conflicts blooding the whole region, it would be enough to just let the different protagonists keep slaying each other. And if "outside" powers – such as Russia, Turkey or Iran – want to get bogged down in that ineluctable morass, good luck to them. Provided they respect a clear "red line": no power (regional or global) should threaten American strategic interests by aiming for hegemonic domination of this huge geographical area.

The Iranian government for its part is well aware that it has neither the military nor the economic means to sustain a direct-armed conflict with the United States. And that the other great powers, Russia and China, have no intention of dying for Tehran. But Iran had to face mounting Western pressure on its nuclear and ballistic program, as well as crippling economic sanctions. The solution was to fall back to an “indirect” dual strategy. On one hand, to try to lessen the weight of economic sanctions by signing, in 2015, a limited ten years-long international agreement controlling its uranium enrichment policy. On the other, an "asymmetrical" offensive, aimed at spreading and reinforcing its influence over a territorial arc extending from the Iraqi border to Southern Syria and Lebanon. A sort of low-cost Iranian empire, designed and commandeered by General Soleimani, making use of local Shiite paramilitary militias armed and "advised" by Iranian officers (Lebanese Hezbollah, the various Syrian Shiite groups, the "Popular Movement" in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza or the Houthis in Yemen). The aim was to strengthen Teheran’s role as a central and essential dealmaker in the region. But without forgetting to take care of United States’ sensitivities by engaging Iraqi Shiite militias alongside American troops in the fight against the ISIS “caliphate”. No doubt, a brilliant game of geopolitical chess... until the big power decides to kick the chessboard.

Trump’s decision to leave the 2015 nuclear deal and to impose tougher economic sanctions was already a wake-up call. By demanding renegotiations including the control over the Iranian missiles program, Washington was clearly targeting the rampant expansionism of the Islamic Republic in the Middle East. By killing the main architect of the Iranian “hybrid” strategy, the White House dots the i’s and cross the t’s: either Tehran settles for a low intensity presence through proxy militias and abides its role as an actor among others in the Middle Eastern theater, or else it will face an unaffordable military escalation. In fact, the benefits of "asymmetry" are being reversed. The survival of the mullahs' regime is at stake, which is not the case with the American state apparatus. The more so that the Iranian regime must also face recent “internal” revolts: those of its own citizens against the economic conditions and the cost of external adventures, and those of large parts of the Lebanese and Iraqi populations (including Shiites) who rebel against the Iranian stranglehold on their countries. Iran therefore does not have many options.
          
The downing of a Ukrainian passenger plane has further reduced these options. After tree days of dithering and denial, the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and government finally acknowledged being responsible for this “disastrous mistake”. The main political consequences of this catastrophe are domestic. Who could have anticipated that the impressive show of national unity during the funeral of general Soleimani would have been already superseded by the growing raucous gap between the Islamic Republic regime and a significant part of its population? Social media anger and street demonstrations calling for the resignation of the government – and even, amazingly, for the removal of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei himself – are reminiscent of the widespread and huge protests of November 2019, which were put to rest with the killing of hundreds of demonstrators by the regime’s security apparatus. Meanwhile, throngs of Iraqi citizens – supported by their most important Shiite religious leader, Ali Sistani – are again manifesting all over their country against both America and Iran. This crumbling consensus about Teheran’s power plays, at home and in the Middle East is a clear case of “Imperial overstretch”. It does not bode well for the Islamic regime, particularly in the eve of the February 21 elections to renovate the national Parliament and the most important Assembly of Experts, which is empowered to elect or dismiss the Supreme Leader.   
          

True, a lot of miscalculations are always possible and sometimes unavoidable. But despite violent verbal escalations, American and Iranian authorities are not used to decide about their core strategic policies on a whim. For now, the very prudent “proportional” Iranian reprisals to avenge the death of Qassem Soleimani and the relatively soothing statements from both sides are nor really a surprise. Meanwhile, "hybrid" strategies, which supposedly level the playing field between the weak and the powerful, remain what they have always been: a makeshift that stops being suitable when the game of chess gives way to "Texas Hold’em" poker.

Kindle books: livros mais recentes de Paulo Roberto de Almeida



 Alguns dos livros recentemente compostos no sistema Kindle. Cada link remete ao índice completo e geralmente ao prefácio ou introdução.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida



   Marxismo e socialismo no Brasil e no mundo: trajetória de duas parábolas da era contemporânea (Brasília: Edição do Autor, 2019; disponível livremente, na plataforma Research Gate, link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337874789_Marxismo_e_Socialismo_trajetoria_de_duas_parabolas_na_era_contemporanea_2019). 



Paralelos com o Meridiano 47: Ensaios Longitudinais e de Ampla Latitude, Kindle books (ASIN: B082Z756JH). Anunciada no blog Diplomatizzando (link: https://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2019/12/paralelos-com-o-meridiano-47-ensaios.html).



  O panorama visto em Mundorama: ensaios irreverentes e não autorizados, Kindle books (ASIN: B082ZNHCCJ). Divulgado via Diplomatizzando (link: https://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2019/12/o-panorama-visto-em-mundorama-livro-em.html).



   Minhas colaborações a uma biblioteca eletrônica: contribuições a periódicos do sistema SciELOEdição Kindle (ASIN: B08356YQ6S). Divulgado no blog Diplomatizzando (link: https://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2019/12/minhas-contribuicoes-periodicos-do.html).




Um contrarianista no limbo: artigos em Via Política, 2006-2009, Kindle (ASIN: B083611SC6). Divulgado no blog Diplomatizzando (link: https://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2019/12/um-contrarianista-no-limbo-artigos-em.html).



  Vivendo com Livros: uma loucura gentil, Brasília, Edição de Autor, 2019, 265 p. Publicada em formato Kindle (ASIN: B0838DLFL2). Divulgado no blog Diplomatizzando (link: https://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2019/12/vivendo-com-livros-uma-loucura-gentil.html).

   Pontes para o mundo no Brasil: minhas interações com a RBPI, Kindle (ASIN: B08336ZRVS). Divulgado no blog Diplomatizzando (link: https://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2019/12/ontes-para-o-mundo-no-brasil-minhas.html).


Para a relação de todas as obras publicadas do autor, verificar estes links: 

Livros do autor: http://pralmeida.org/autor/

Livros editados por mim: http://pralmeida.org/editados/ 

Capítulos em obras coletivas: http://pralmeida.org/capitulos/

Teses e dissertações: http://pralmeida.org/teses-e-dissertacoes/         

Outros livros: http://pralmeida.org/outros-livros/

Outros livros seguirão...

         Paulo Roberto de Almeida