A América do Sul caminha uniformemente para a direita trumpista?
Opinião do prof. Evan Ellis (U.S. Army War College)
Nos anos 2000, com exceção da Colômbia, a América do Sul aparecia quase toda "rosa", bolivarianos espalhados por toda a parte, a Unasul aparecendo sob o domínio dos próprios, enfim, um festa para os companheiros, para o Foro de São Paulo e para Cuba. Persistia, é claro, certo desgaste do Lula, que pretendia liderar a América do Sul em alguma resistência ao Império, e até promoveu encontros dos presidentes da América do Sul com seus contrapartes árabes e da África, duas ou três vezes, mas sentia que Chávez e Kirchner teimavam em não reconhecê-lo como um grande líder regional (inclusive porque não tinha os petrodólares do Chávez, num momento em que o barril do óleo passou de 120 dólares).
Agora, a América do Sul, e Central, parece caminhar não só para a Direita, como, muito pior, para o trumpismo travestido como Corolário Roosevelt (Theodore). Não sei o que Lula anda pensando sobre o tal de Sul Global, um pouco longe para se saber o que pensam todos os presidentes, líderes, ditadores...
Os americanos trumpistas parecem navegar em águas favoráveis. Essa é pelo menos a impressão que me transmite este professor de escola militar dos EUA. (PRA)
In the present article, just published by Opidata (Legado de las Americas) I share my thoughts on the ongoing elections in Colombia and Peru.
R. Evan Ellis, PhD
Latin America Research Professor
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
@REvanEllis
Website: https://revanellis.com
In Colombia, polls show right-oriented lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella likely to win this Sunday, June 21, in the second round of the nation’s presidential elections. In Peru, right-oriented Senator Keiko Fujimori appears to have prevailed in the June 7 round two of that nation’s presidential elections, although the verification of the count and legal challenges could continue into mid-July.
In both cases, voters appear to be selecting candidates who promise solutions to problems of insecurity that have plagued the nations in recent years. In addition, many appear to be going with candidates that they may have had reservations about, to block the advance of a feared political project by the radical left.
In both elections, the outcome appears positive for cooperation with the U.S. in the framework of the new Shield of Americas now being coordinated by Kristi Noem, and the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (A3C).
These prospective results indicate an opportunity for both countries and the region, and for the U.S. (if it follows through with needed security cooperation, business opportunities and other collaboration). Nonetheless, there are substantial reasons for concern over the high levels of polarization that the campaigns, surrounding public discourse, and outcomes indicate in both societies. The winners in both elections will also face serious security, fiscal and other problems that will make effective governance difficult for whoever wins.
The U.S. should be pleased, but not celebrate, much less “gloat,” but look to how to leverage and consolidate the opportunity, while working with the new governments to address the almost half of each country that (sometimes passionately) rejected the prevailing candidate.
