O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

Meu Twitter: https://twitter.com/PauloAlmeida53

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/paulobooks

Mostrando postagens com marcador Henry Kissinger. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Henry Kissinger. Mostrar todas as postagens

quinta-feira, 19 de janeiro de 2023

Une approche "réaliste" du conflit ukrainien peut-elle ramener la paix ? - Bernard Chappedelaine (Institut Montaigne)

Um artigo interessante, contestando as posições de Kissinger et de Mearsheimer.  

Europe et International  > Russie 


Une approche "réaliste" du conflit ukrainien peut-elle ramener la paix ?

Par Bernard Chappedelaine

Ancien conseiller des Affaires étrangères 

Institut Montaigne, Analyses - 19 Janvier 2023

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/analyses/le-monde-vu-dailleurs-une-approche-realiste-du-conflit-ukrainien-peut-elle-ramener-la-paix


Tous les quinze jours, Bernard Chappedelaine, ancien conseiller des Affaires étrangères, nous propose un regard décalé sur l’actualité internationale. Nourris d'une grande variété de sources officielles, médiatiques et universitaires, ses décryptages synthétisent les grands enjeux du moment et nous invitent à poursuivre la réflexion en compagnie des meilleurs experts étrangers. Cette semaine, une approche "réaliste" du conflit ukrainien.

Les thèses défendues par John Mearsheimer et Henry Kissinger, les figures les plus emblématiques du courant réaliste en matière de relations internationales, sur les origines du conflit russo-ukrainien et les moyens d’y mettre fin, illustrent les limites d’une approche géopolitique qui ne prend pas en compte la radicalisation du régime russe. 

L'élargissement de l'OTAN explique-t-il l'invasion de l'Ukraine ?

Les difficultés rencontrées par Kevin McCarthy pour être élu à la présidence de la chambre des Représentants témoignent de la montée aux États-Unis du débat sur l'attitude à adopter à l'égard du conflit en Ukraine, argument mentionné par certains parlementaires républicains pour justifier leur refus de voter pour le candidat de leur parti. À Washington, le courant réaliste a retrouvé du crédit en raison des échecs de la diplomatie américaine, ces dernières décennies, et l'Ukraine lui a servi de point d'application, remarque Emma Ashford. Ancien conseiller de Barack Obama pour les questions européennes, Charles Kupchan esquisse ainsi, dans les colonnes du New York Times, les contours d'un possible règlement de la guerre en Ukraine, qui impliquerait que ce pays renonce non seulement à une adhésion à l'OTAN - afin de prendre en compte les "préoccupations russes légitimes en matière de sécurité"- mais aussi à une partie de son territoire. Les analyses de John Mearsheimer sont "partagées de facto par une grande partie de l'establishment de politique étrangère aux États-Unis", relève Adam Tooze. Depuis longtemps, ce représentant très connu du courant "réaliste" met en garde contre une adhésion de l'Ukraine à l'OTAN. À l’automne 2014, peu après l'annexion de la Crimée, il signe dans la revueForeign Affairs un article ("Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault"), qui reçoit un large écho. Il explique que la décision russe était prévisible et imputable à l'Occident, l'erreur fatale ayant été commise, selon lui, à Bucarest en 2008 quand George W. Bush a ouvert une perspective d'adhésion à l’OTAN à l'Ukraine et à la Géorgie. 

Dans l'entretien accordé au New Yorker peu après le début de l'invasion de l'Ukraine, John Mearsheimer réaffirme que, non seulement l'adhésion de l'Ukraine à l'OTAN, mais aussi sa transformation en un "bastion occidental", sont considérées en Russie comme une "menace existentielle". Aussi, l'Occident et les États-Unis en particulier sont-ils, d'après lui, "principalement responsables de ce désastre". Ce n'est pas de l'impérialisme, affirme-t-il à propos du comportement russe, mais une "politique de grande puissance". 

Les prises de position de John Mearsheimer n'ont pas manqué d'être utilisées par les responsables et les médias russes à l'appui de leur narratif, qui fait de la Russie la victime de l'hostilité et des menées occidentales. 

"Quand vous êtes un pays comme l'Ukraine et que vous vivez à proximité d'une grande puissance comme la Russie, vous devez être attentifs à ce que les Russes pensent", affirme John Mearsheimer. Au demeurant, Vladimir Poutine ne cherche pas, d'après lui, à "recréer l'Union soviétique ou à bâtir une grande Russie, il n'est pas intéressé à conquérir l'Ukraine ni à l'intégrer à la Russie". Neuf mois de guerre n'auront pas modifié le jugement de John Mearsheimer, qui considère toujours, dans un nouvel entretien au New Yorker, qu'au début de "l'opération militaire spéciale", Poutine n'avait pas l'intention de conquérir l'Ukraine, que l'annexion des quatre régions ukrainiennes procède de la logique d'escalade propre à une guerre et que le Président russe n'a pas d'ambitions territoriales ou impériales. 

Les prises de position de John Mearsheimer n'ont pas manqué d'être utilisées par les responsables et les médias russes à l'appui de leur narratif, qui fait de la Russie la victime de l'hostilité et des menées occidentales. Ses thèses suscitent aussi les critiques de nombreux experts occidentaux. "L'argument monocausal" mis en avant par John Mearsheimer ne permet pas d'expliquer le choix fait par Vladimir Poutine d'attaquer l'Ukraine, juge Matthew Specter. D'ailleurs à Moscou, les spécialistes de politique étrangère, proches du régime et convaincus de l'avenir de la Russie comme grande puissance, ne croyaient pas à une guerre, précisément parce que leur raisonnement s'inscrivait dans une logique de puissance et qu'ils étaient conscients des risques encourus, note aussi Adam ToozeL'analyse de John Mearsheimer délaisse deux points essentiels, la volonté affichée par Poutine lui-même de "rassembler des terres russes", à l'instar de Pierre le Grand qu'il prend en exemple, et la dynamique interne d'un régime russe de plus en plus autoritaire qui craint une contagion démocratique venant d'Ukraine, souligne Joe Cirincione. Comme l'expliquait François Godement dans un récent papierpour l'Institut Montaigne, la thèse qui fait de l'élargissement de l'OTAN la raison de la guerre en Ukraine n'explique pas l'orientation radicale prise par la propagande du Kremlin et tout le narratif autour de la "dénazification" et de la prévention d'un "génocide" des populations du Donbass, pas plus que l'instrumentalisation de l'histoire, observe Michael Zürn. En réalité, explique ce professeur de relations internationales, d'autres raisons rendent compte de manière plus convaincante de la décision de Poutine - une vision du monde de plus en plus hostile à l'Occident libéral et une volonté de rester au pouvoir - qui font qu'il ne peut tolérer l'existence d'une Ukraine démocratique. 

Un compromis "paix contre territoires" peut-il mettre fin au conflit russo-ukrainien ? 

La guerre en Ukraine est l’objet de l'article publié en décembre dernier par Henry Kissinger dans The Spectator. L'ancien secrétaire d'État préconise, comme il l'avait déjà fait à Davos en mai, l'instauration d'un cessez-le-feu sur la ligne de contact et le retrait des forces russes sur les positions occupées avant le 24 février, les autres territoires (Donbass, Crimée) devant faire l'objet de négociations qui, si elles n'aboutissaient pas, conduiraient à l'organisation de référendums dans ces régions contestées qui "ont souvent changé de mains au cours des siècles". L'objectif du processus de paix serait double, "confirmer la liberté de l'Ukraine et définir une nouvelle structure internationale, en particulier en Europe centrale et orientale", dans laquelle "finalement, la Russie pourrait trouver sa place". Favorable, lui, à une adhésion de l'Ukraine à l'OTAN, Henry Kissinger met aussi en garde contre la volonté de certains de "rendre la Russie impuissante", alors qu'elle a "contribué de manière décisive à l'équilibre global et de la puissance pendant plus d'un demi-millénaire". L'éclatement de la fédération russe pourrait s'opérer dans la violence, risque accru par la présence, sur son territoire, de milliers d'armes nucléaires. 

Le schéma proposé par Kissinger n'est pas crédible ("nonstarter"), estime Fred Kaplan. Les principes de Realpolitikhérités du XIXème siècle - l'équilibre des puissances - que l'auteur de la thèse bien connue sur le congrès de Vienne avait théorisés, ne sont plus pertinents au XXIème siècle. Le parallèle établi dans l’article du Spectator avec la première guerre mondiale, qui aurait éclaté sans qu'aucun des acteurs ne l'ait voulu (cf. l'ouvrage de Christopher Clark, "Les somnanbules") n'est pas convaincant, car la décision russe d'envahir l'Ukraine est délibérée et ne résulte pas du jeu des alliances. 

Le schéma proposé par Kissinger n'est pas crédible [...]  La décision russe d'envahir l'Ukraine est délibérée et ne résulte pas du jeu des alliances.

Vladimir Poutine n'a aucun intérêt à accepter les propositions d'Henry Kissinger, il pense toujours pouvoir l'emporter sur le terrain, conteste le droit à l'existence d'une Ukraine indépendante et rêve, non pas d'une Europe sur le modèle de Metternich, mais d'une Russie impériale dans la tradition de Pierre le Grand. Il faut prendre garde au narratif sur "l'humiliation" de la Russie que le Kremlin met en avant, qui n'exprime en fait que son isolement, résultat de mauvais choix politiques, marque Raymond Kuo, expert de la Rand. La stratégie recommandée par John Mearsheimer et Henry Kissinger a pour objectif de faire de la Russie un allié face à la Chine, mais est-ce réaliste, se demande-t-il.

À Varsovie, la proposition de l'ancien conseiller de Richard Nixon suscite, sans surprise, de vives critiques. Le "réalisme de Kissinger est basé sur des prémisses erronées", estime Rafał A. Ziemkiewicz, la croyance fallacieuse que la Russie de Poutine, comme l'Allemagne d'Hitler après les accords de Munich et l'annexion des territoires peuplés par des Allemands en Europe centrale, deviendrait un "acteur stable et prévisible de l'équilibre européen". En Ukraine, l'accueil réservé à la tribune publiée dans The Spectator est également très critique. Kissinger aurait été mieux inspiré de se référer aux enseignements de la seconde guerre mondiale et de méditer un passage de sa thèse ("quand la paix - conçue comme l'évitement de la guerre - est l’objectif premier d'une puissance ou d'un groupe de puissances, le système international est à la merci du membre le plus impitoyable de la communauté internationale"), observe le juriste ukrainien Viktor Rud, qui note qu'à aucun moment Henry Kissinger ne mentionne les exactions et les crimes de guerre commis par la Russie en Ukraine. 

Les propositions d'Henry Kissinger sont jugées irréalistes à Moscou 

"Le talent, l'expérience et l'expertise d’Henry Kissinger seront toujours recherchés", a commenté poliment le porte-parole du Kremlin, sans se prononcer sur le contenu de la tribune, qui suscite en revanche des commentaires d'experts. "Il est probable qu'aux États-Unis beaucoup souscrivent à son point de vue", réagit Andreï Kortunov, sceptique néanmoins sur l'impact de ses propositions sur l'administration Biden, qui exigeraient des concessions territoriales que le directeur du RIAC juge inacceptables pour les deux parties. 

L'UE et l'OTAN conserveront-elles leur configuration actuelle, une "nouvelle petite entente" verra-t-elle le jour, un "cordon sanitaire" sera-t-il mis en place aux frontières de la Russie ? 

C'est à juste titre qu'Henry Kissinger se réfère à la première et non à la deuxième guerre mondiale, estime Alexandr Kramatenko, ancien diplomate et expert du même institut, mais la nouvelle architecture de sécurité qu'il mentionne demeure imprécise, l'UE et l'OTAN conserveront-elles leur configuration actuelle, une "nouvelle petite entente" verra-t-elle le jour, un "cordon sanitaire" sera-t-il mis en place aux frontières de la Russie ? C'est le point important de l'article, estime aussi Georgui Bovt.

L'Ukraine, membre de l'OTAN, deviendrait un élément important des futurs arrangements, mais quelle place serait ménagée à la Russie, quelles garanties de sécurité pourrait-elle obtenir, ce dont les pays d'Europe centrale et orientale ne veulent pas entendre parler. Difficile de ne pas voir de la naïveté dans ce plan, conclut le politologue. Dmitri Souslov se veut optimiste sur le long terme, "la confrontation de plus en plus dure entre les États-Unis, la Russie et la Chine dans les décennies à venir contraindra Washington à pratiquer une politique étrangère réaliste, prenant en compte l'équilibre des forces et les menaces", de "nouveaux Kissinger surgiront", assure ce spécialiste des États-Unis. 

Henry Kissinger se présente comme une "colombe" dans un environnement de "faucons", qui misent sur la défaite de la Russie, "c'est en partie vrai mais, comme toujours, le diable est dans les détails", tempère Piotr Akopov. En réalité, la Russie devrait accepter non seulement la perte de territoires historiques, mais également la transformation de l'Ukraine en "anti-Russie", ce que "l'opération militaire spéciale" a précisément pour objectif d'empêcher. On propose à la Russie de conserver ce qu'elle contrôle aujourd'hui à condition qu'elle renonce au reste de l'Ukraine, "il est clair que cela n'arrivera jamais", assure le commentateur de Ria novosti. Elena Panina distingue dans la politique russe des États-Unis deux positions, l'une "radicale", celle de Joe Biden, et l'autre "modérée", incarnée par Henry Kissinger, mais aucune de ces options ne sera jamais acceptée à Moscou, affirme la directrice du think-tank ROSSTRAT. "En l'absence de changement radical en Ukraine, il n'y aura sans doute pas de dialogue constructif avec l'Occident", conclut Elena Panina, ce qui fait que "la perspective d'un nouveau Yalta reste lointaine". D'autant que, souligne Timofei Bordachev, "la détermination dont fait preuve la Russie", ces dernières années, a non seulement des causes internes, mais est aussi liée à l'évolution des rapports de force dans le monde, et notamment à l'affirmation de la Chine. La politique étrangère de la Russie, explique le chercheur du club Valdaï, repose sur la conviction que "la rupture, même totale, avec l'Occident, ne sera pas mortelle pour les décisions fondamentales qu'elle doit prendre pour son développement".

 

 

terça-feira, 5 de julho de 2022

Henry Kissinger: Leadership; his new, perhaps the last, book (unless there are secret papers to be revealed post mortem)

Well, after those six great strategists he dissects, how could we transpose to a single concept the kind of strategy of leadership Kissinger himself developed during his years in power? 
Perhaps the old Roman adage, divide et impera, could represent his work at the height of Soviet power, when he inserted China in his great game to change the balance of powers among the greats.
He was a kind of Metternichean personality, interested solely in how to maintain control of everything in times of turbulence.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Leadership

Publisher Description

Henry Kissinger, consummate diplomat and statesman, examines the strategies of six great twentieth-century figures and brings to life a unifying theory of leadership and diplomacy

“Leaders,” writes Henry Kissinger in this compelling book, “think and act at the intersection of two axes: the first, between the past and the future; the second, between the abiding values and aspirations of those they lead. They must balance what they know, which is necessarily drawn from the past, with what they intuit about the future, which is inherently conjectural and uncertain. It is this intuitive grasp of direction that enables leaders to set objectives and lay down a strategy.”
 
In Leadership, Kissinger analyses the lives of six extraordinary leaders through the distinctive strategies of statecraft, which he believes they embodied. After the Second World War, Konrad Adenauer brought defeated and morally bankrupt Germany back into the community of nations by what Kissinger calls “the strategy of humility.” Charles de Gaulle set France beside the victorious Allies and renewed its historic grandeur by “the strategy of will.” During the Cold War, Richard Nixon gave geostrategic advantage to the United States by “the strategy of equilibrium.” After twenty-five years of conflict, Anwar Sadat brought a vision of peace to the Middle East by a “strategy of transcendence.” Against the odds, Lee Kuan Yew created a powerhouse city-state, Singapore, by “the strategy of excellence.” And, though Britain was known as “the sick man of Europe” when Margaret Thatcher came to power, she renewed her country’s morale and international position by “the strategy of conviction.”

To each of these studies, Kissinger brings historical perception, public experience and—because he knew each of the subjects and participated in many of the events he describes—personal knowledge. Leadership is enriched by insights and judgements that only Kissinger could make and concludes with his reflections on world order and the indispensability of leadership today. 


quinta-feira, 30 de junho de 2022

Dr. Henry Kissinger Shares His Thoughts on China, Russia, & Ukraine - Krane Shares

 Government Policy

Dr. Henry Kissinger Shares His Thoughts on China, Russia, & Ukraine

KraneShares recently participated in a private discussion with former US Secretary of State Dr. Henry Kissinger at the Metropolitan Club in New York City. We hosted a private lunch briefing with the former Secretary of State in 2019. Given the significant developments over the past four years, we were eager to learn how Kissinger’s views have evolved in 2022. 

Dr. Kissinger was a key influence in shaping U.S. foreign policy with China under President Richard Nixon. He continues to share valuable insight on the relationship between the two countries against an increasingly complex political backdrop. The conference was centered on the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and the potential political and economic consequences affecting China, Russia, and the U.S. going forward.

The main takeaways from Dr. Kissinger’s remarks include:

  • The dynamics between China, Russia, and the U.S. remain fragile and unpredictable going forward as Russia engages in conflict with Ukraine.
  • China likely did not foresee the invasion when entering into an alliance “without limits” with Russia. Despite refusing to condemn the war, China is expected to avoid entering a contentious position with Europe due to heavy trade with the continent. China will be inclined to depart from its partnership with Russia as a result.
  • China and the U.S. continue to lack the high-level diplomatic communication that is crucial to avoiding conflict and developing a strategic relationship for the future.

Dr. Kissinger stated that Ukraine should seek a return to the status quo, i.e., re-establishing the conditions that held before the war with Russia. He suggested that Ukraine will likely push further and demand to restore its border to include Crimea and the parts of the Donbas region that have been occupied by Russia. This scenario would be seen as a clear defeat for Vladimir Putin, shifting the dynamic of the war from a defense of Ukrainian territory to an encroachment on Russia. This may also risk escalation by Putin, but Dr. Kissinger believes it is unlikely that Russia would resort to the use of nuclear weapons.

Immediately prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia agreed to a “no limits” partnership with the stated purpose of countering U.S. influence. Dr. Kissinger believes that, at the time the agreement was announced China was unaware of Russia’s plans to invade. He predicts that China will begin to depart from this alliance due to the potential sanctions from the West. Furthermore, significant trade between China, Europe, and the US prevents the major economic power from siding with Russia. As a result, Russia and China presently do not share the same objectives.

The original concept of the “no limits” alliance was to join the two countries in opposition to what they both see as the U.S. interfering in their domestic affairs. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created uncertainty in its alliance with China, leaving room for new negotiations in the near future.

Considering the level of economic coupling between China and the U.S., it is crucial that the two countries resolve their differences and forge a partnership going forward. Communication between China and the U.S. drastically shifted under the Trump administration as Donald Trump established China as an adversary and ignited an economic war. This set the tone for Biden’s presidency which continues to see China in the light Trump cast.

Dr. Kissinger looked back to the origins of contact between China and the U.S. The two powers forged their relationship on the grounds of a common strategic interest: containing the then Soviet Union. This led to cooperation between the countries for many years following the Cold War. Since then, China has rapidly developed, creating a unique situation in which the U.S. faces a country with nearly equivalent strategic capability.

Dr. Kissinger believes it would benefit both countries now to take the basic approach observed during the Nixon administration in which communication with China focuses on common strategic interests without attempting to alter the domestic structure of either nation. Continuing to engage with China in the manner that has been may lead to a long and potentially dangerous conflict. Dr. Kissinger noted that this also brings forth an important decision for China as this conflict would be substantially damaging for the Chinese economy. He believes China is not prepared for this conflict with the U.S. because of its own internal objectives, which include containing COVID and jump-starting domestic consumption. The issue thus resides in the lack of high-level diplomatic communication between China and the U.S. The U.S. must be active in limiting and possibly reducing the confrontational aspect of its relationship with China.

Dr. Kissinger suggested a good principle to keep in mind: when dealing with two adversaries, it is best for them to be greater enemies with each other than they are with you. The U.S. should place itself closer to China than China is with Russia. However, he believes once the conflict in Ukraine is settled politically, the U.S. should not expect the alliance between China and Russia to be dissolved. The more China’s objectives diverge from Russia’s, the more they begin to align with the U.S. The U.S. should seize the opportunity presented by China’s frustration with Russia to encourage China to work more constructively with the U.S. going forward.

Kissinger believes that China has consistently honored the position of mutual respect for sovereignty that is in the written principles of its foreign policy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put a wedge in the partnership between Russia and China as it would be against China’s strategic interests and operating principles to support Russia’s invasion. This is evidenced by China’s refusal to condone Russia’s actions. In the wake of their “no limits” alliance, this conflict opens an opportunity for the U.S. to strengthen foreign relations with China going forward. If the two countries can use this opportunity to develop high-level diplomatic communication, we could see an improvement in U.S.-China relations in the future.


terça-feira, 10 de maio de 2022

Henry Kissinger ‘We are now living in a totally new era’ - Interview by Edward Luce (Financial Times)

Henry Kissinger ‘We are now living in a totally new era’

Henry Kissinger Cold war strategist discusses Russia, the Ukraine war and China at the FTWeekend Festival in Washington Henry Kissinger says there is insufficient discussion about the risk of nuclear weapons 

 


Interview conducted by Edward Luce in Washington 

This is the edited transcript of a discussion between Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state and national security adviser, and Edward Luce, Financial Times US national editor, which took place on May 7 in Washington. 

Financial Times, May 10, 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/cd88912d-506a-41d4-b38f-0c37cb7f0e2f?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content

 

Financial Times: Earlier this year, we commemorated the 50th anniversary of the Nixon visit to China, the Shanghai communique. You, of course, were the organiser, the orchestrator of this Sino-US agreement. And it was a major shift in the cold war: you split China from Russia. It feels like we’ve gone 180 degrees. And now Russia and China are back in a very tight relationship. My opening question to you is: are we in a new cold war with China? 

Henry Kissinger: At the time we opened to China, Russia was the principal enemy — but our relations with China were about as bad as they could be. Our view in opening to China was that it was unwise, when you have two enemies, to treat them exactly alike. What produced the opening were tensions that developed autonomously between Russia and China. [Former Soviet Union head of state Leonid] Brezhnev could not conceive that China and the United States could get together. But Mao, despite all his ideological hostility, was ready to begin conversations. In principle, the [Sino-Russian] alliance is against vested interests, it’s now established. But it does not look to me as if it is an intrinsically permanent relationship. 

 

FT: I take it that it would be in America’s geopolitical interest to encourage more distance between Russia and China. Is this wrong? 

 

HK: The geopolitical situation globally will undergo significant changes after the Ukraine war is over. And it is not natural for China and Russia to have identical interests on all foreseeable problems. I don’t think we can generate possible disagreements but I think circumstances will. After the Ukraine war, Russia will have to reassess its relationship to Europe at a minimum and its general attitude towards Nato. I think it is unwise to take an adversarial position to two adversaries in a way that drives them together, and once we take aboard this principle in our relationships with Europe and in our internal discussions, I think history will provide opportunities in which we can apply the differential approach. That doesn’t mean that either of them will become intimate friends of the west, it only means that on specific issues as they arise we leave open the option of having a different approach. In the period ahead of us, we should not lump Russia and China together as an integral element. 

 

FT: The Biden administration is framing its grand geopolitical challenge as being democracy versus autocracy. I’m picking up an implicit hint that it's the wrong framing? 

 

HK: We have to be conscious of the differences of ideology and of interpretation that exists. We should use this consciousness to apply it in our own analysis of the importance of issues as they arise, rather than make it the principal issue of confrontation, unless we are prepared to make regime change the principal goal of our policy. I think given the evolution of technology, and the enormous destructiveness of weapons that now exist, [seeking regime change] may be imposed on us by the hostility of others, but we should avoid generating it with our own attitudes. 

 

FT: You have probably more experience than any person alive of how to manage a stand-off between two nuclear-armed superpowers. But today’s nuclear language, which is coming thick and fast from [Russian president Vladimir] Putin, from people around him, where do you put that in terms of the threat we are facing today? 

 

HK: We are now [faced with] with technologies where the rapidity of exchange, the subtlety of the inventions, can produce levels of catastrophe that were not even imaginable. And the strange aspect of the present situation is that the weapons are multiplying on both sides and their sophistication is increasing every year. But there’s almost no discussion internationally about what would happen if the weapons actually became used. My appeal in general, on whatever side you are, is to understand that we are now living in a totally new era, and we have gotten away with neglecting that aspect. But as technology spreads around the world, as it does inherently, diplomacy and war will need a different content and that will be a challenge. 

 

FT: You’ve met Putin 20 to 25 times. The Russian military nuclear doctrine is they will respond with nuclear weapons if they feel that the regime is under existential threat. Where do you think Putin’s red line is in this situation? 

 

HK: I have met Putin as a student of international affairs about once a year for a period of maybe 15 years for purely academic strategic discussions. I thought his basic convictions were a kind of mystic faith in Russian history . . . and that he felt offended, in that sense, not by anything we did particularly at first, but by this huge gap that opened up with Europe and the east. He was offended and threatened because Russia was threatened by the absorption of this whole area into Nato. This does not excuse and I would not have predicted an attack of the magnitude of taking over a recognised country. I think he miscalculated the situation he faced internationally and he obviously miscalculated Russia’s capabilities to sustain such a major enterprise — and when the time for settlement comes all need to take that into consideration, that we are not going back to the previous relationship but to a position for Russia that will be different because of this — and not because we demand it but because they produced it. 

 

FT: Do you think Putin’s getting good information and if he isn’t what further miscalculations should we be preparing for? 

 

HK: In all these crises, one has to try to understand what the inner red line is for the opposite number . . . The obvious question is how long will this escalation continue and how much scope is there for further escalation? Or has he reached the limit of his capability, and he has to decide at what point escalating the war will strain his society to a point that will limit its fitness to conduct international policy as a great power in the future. I have no judgment when he comes to that point. When that point is reached will he escalate by moving into a category of weapons that in 70 years of their existence have never been used? If that line is crossed, that will be an extraordinarily significant event. Because we have not gone through globally what the next dividing lines would be. One thing we could not do in my opinion is just accept it. 

 

FT: You’ve met [Chinese president] Xi Jinping many times and his predecessors — you know China well. What lessons is China drawing from this? 

 

HK: I would suspect that any Chinese leader now would be reflecting on how to avoid getting into the situation in which Putin got himself into, and how to be in a position where in any crisis that might arise, they would not have a major part of the world turned against them. 

 

Transcribed by James Politi in Washington

 

domingo, 12 de dezembro de 2021

Um conceito hipócrita: "estabilidade estratégica" (na verdade, cada superpotência tentava assegurar sua preeminência) - H-Diplo

The National Security Archive: Strategic Stability and Instability during the Middle Years of the Cold War

by Malcolm Byrne
H-Diplo, December 12, 2021

"What an Insane Road We Are Both Following": Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, June 1967

Neither Superpower Wanted to be in an “Inferior” Position and Both Sought Strategic Advantage

Edited by William Burr

Washington, D.C., December 10, 2021 –  As the United States engages in strategic stability talks with Russia and seeks similar talks with China, it is worth looking back to the origins of the concept and its early usage in the late 1950s and 1960s. Today, the National Security Archive posts selected White House and other high-level records that speak to “strategic stability’s” past – and continuing – impact on evaluations of new strategic systems and the risks of escalating the nuclear arms race.

The posting features documents, published for the first time by the National Security Archive, showing the earliest known usage of the term “strategic stability” in 1958.  Others published here first concern a notable December 1967 meeting in Moscow, when officially-connected U.S. and Soviet academics including Henry Kissinger and Paul Doty met to discuss arms control.   The U.S. participants shared their thinking about new strategic systems, fielded by both sides, that raised concerns about stability and first-strike risks.

One of the main voices in the debates over strategic stability in the 1960s was Defense Secretary Robert McNamara. During the Glassboro summit, McNamara had an exchange with Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin about anti-ballistic missiles and the arms race in which he exclaimed: “What an insane road we are both following.”  Kosygin in reply complimented McNamara: “how well you speak.”

As contemporary leaders of the United States, Russia, and China face pressures of their own to ratchet up nuclear weapons levels, the issues and lessons revealed in internal discussions decades ago appear all the more salient.


H-Diplo Publication Schedule, 13 to 25 December

by Diane N. Labrosse

The H-Diplo publication schedule for the period 13 to 25 December is as follows:

Week of 13 December:

1. H-Diplo Roundtable Review of Victor McFarland. Oil Powers: A History of the U.S.-Saudi Alliance. New York: Columbia University Press, 2020. 

Introduction by Christopher Dietrich, Fordham University

Reviewers:

Gregory Brew, Texas National Security Review

Nathan J. Citino, Rice University 

Doug Little, Clark University

2. H-Diplo Essay Series on Learning the Scholar’s Craft: Reflections of Historians and International Relations Scholars.

Learning the Scholar’s Craft  

Essay by Sheila Fitzpatrick, Australian Catholic University (Melbourne), University of Sydney, and Professor Emerita, University of Chicago.

3. H-Diplo Article Review of Jeremy Friedman. “The Enemy of My Enemy: The Soviet Union, East Germany, and the Iranian Tudeh Party’s Support for Ayatollah Khomeini,” Journal of Cold War Studies 20:2 (2018): 3-37. 

Reviewed by Dmitry Asinovskiy, University of Amsterdam

4. H-Diplo Review of Abraham Denmark. U.S. Strategy in the Asian Century: Empowering Allies and Partners. New York: Columbia University Press, 2020.

Reviewed by Iain Henry, Australian National University

5. H-Diplo Article Review of Sheng Peng, “A ‘Gentleman’s Understanding’: British, French, and German Dual-Use Technology Transfer to China and America’s Dilemma during the Carter Administration, 1977-1981.” Diplomacy & Statecraft 32:1 (2021): 168-188. 

Reviewed by Jingdong Yuan, University of Sydney & Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

6. H-Diplo Review of Tanvi Madan, Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2020).

Reviewed by Jayita Sarkar, Boston University

7. H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable Review of Paul Avey. Tempting Fate: Why Nonnuclear States Confront Nuclear Opponents. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2019.

Introduction by Lawrence Rubin, Georgia Institute of Technology

Reviewers:

Rebecca Davis Gibbons, University of Southern Maine

Kelly M. Greenhill, 2020-21 Leverhulme Trust Visiting Professor, SOAS

Jeffrey Kaplow, William & Mary 

Abigail S. Post, Anderson University

Week of 20 December:

1. H-Diplo Roundtable Review of Thea Riofrancos. Resource Radicals: From Petro-Nationalism to Post-Extractivism in Ecuador (Durham: Duke University Press, 2020).

Introduction by Murad Idris, University of Michigan

Reviewed by 

Alyssa Battistoni, Harvard University

Maxwell A. Cameron, The University of British Columbia

Lida Maxwell, Boston University

2. H-Diplo Essay Series on Learning the Scholar’s Craft: Reflections of Historians and International Relations Scholars.

Learning the Scholar’s Craft: Crossing into a Discipline

Danielle Fosler-Lussier, Ohio State University

3. H-Diplo Article Review of John Haynes and Harvey Klehr. “Framing William Albertson: The FBI”s ‘Solo’ Operation and the Cold War,” Journal of Cold War Studies. 22: 3 (Summer 2020): 63-85.

Reviewed by Jason Roberts, Quincy College

4. H-Diplo Article Review of Ingo Trauschweizer. “Berlin Commander. Maxwell Taylor and the Cold War’s frontlines, 1949-1951.” Cold War History 21:1 (2019)37-53. 

Reviewed by Armin Grünbacher, University of Birmingham

5.  H-Diplo Article Review of Ellen Gray, “Blind Loyalty? The Menzies Mission to Cairo during the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis. Diplomacy & Statecraft, 32:1 (June 2021): 86-113. 

Reviewed by Robert Bowker, Australian Ambassador to Egypt 2005-2008; Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

With best regards,

Diane Labrosse, H-Diplo managing editor


quinta-feira, 2 de setembro de 2021

O fracasso no Afeganistão - Henry Kissinger (OESP)

 O homem que levou os EUA ao fracasso em intervenções anteriores pretende tirar lições do mais recente fracasso...

O FRACASSO NO AFEGANISTÃO!

Henry Kissinger
The Economist/O Estado de S. Paulo, 28/08/2021

Os objetivos militares americanos têm sido absolutos e inatingíveis. E os políticos, abstratos e fugidios.

A tomada do Afeganistão pelo Taleban põe o foco da preocupação imediata no resgate de dezenas de milhares de americanos, aliados e afegãos imobilizados em todo o país. Seu socorro precisa ser a mais urgente prioridade dos EUA.

A questão mais fundamental, porém, é saber como os EUA se viram levados a se retirar em uma decisão tomada sem muito aviso ou consulta aos aliados ou às pessoas mais diretamente envolvidas em 20 anos de sacrifício. E por que o desafio básico no Afeganistão foi concebido e apresentado ao público como uma escolha entre o controle total do país ou a retirada completa.

Uma questão subjacente perseguiu os esforços americanos de contrainsurgência, do Vietnã ao Iraque, por mais de uma geração. Quando os EUA arriscam a vida de seus militares, põem em risco também seu prestígio e envolvem outros países, então devem fazê-lo com base em uma combinação de objetivos estratégicos e políticos.

Estratégicos, para deixar claras as circunstâncias pelas quais está lutando; políticos, para definir uma estrutura de governo que dê sustentação ao resultado, tanto dentro do país em causa quanto no cenário internacional.

Os EUA se dilaceraram em seus esforços de contrainsurgência por causa de sua incapacidade de definir objetivos alcançáveis e vinculá-los de uma forma que fosse sustentável pelo processo político americano. Os objetivos militares têm sido muito absolutos e inatingíveis. E os políticos, muito abstratos e fugidios. O fracasso em vinculá-los um ao outro enredou a América em conflitos sem pontos finais definíveis e a fez dissolver o propósito unificado em um pântano de controvérsias domésticas.

Os EUA entraram no Afeganistão com amplo apoio público para responder ao ataque da Al-qaeda ao território americano, lançado de um Afeganistão controlado pelo Taleban. A campanha militar inicial prevaleceu com grande eficácia. O Taleban sobreviveu essencialmente em santuários paquistaneses, de onde realizou ataques no Afeganistão, com a ajuda de algumas autoridades paquistanesas.

Mas, enquanto o Taleban estava fugindo do país, os EUA perderam o foco estratégico. Os americanos se convenceram de que, em última análise, o restabelecimento de bases terroristas só poderia ser evitado transformando o Afeganistão em um Estado moderno, com instituições democráticas e um governo constitucional. Tal empreendimento jamais poderia ter um cronograma compatível com os processos políticos americanos. No ano de 2010, em um artigo em resposta a um aumento de tropas, alertei contra um processo que fosse tão prolongado e intrusivo a ponto de virar até mesmo os afegãos não jihadistas contra todo o esforço.

Pois o Afeganistão nunca foi um Estado moderno. A organização estatal pressupõe um senso de obrigação comum e centralização da autoridade. O solo afegão, rico em muitos elementos, carece destes. A construção de um Estado democrático moderno no Afeganistão, onde o mandato do governo funcionasse uniformemente em todo o país, implicaria um período de muitos anos – na verdade, décadas. Mas isso vai contra a essência geográfica e etnorreligiosa do país. Foi precisamente a fragmentação, a inacessibilidade e a ausência de autoridade central que fizeram do Afeganistão uma base atraente para redes terroristas.

Embora se possa datar do século 18 uma entidade afegã distinguível, seus povos constituintes sempre resistiram ferozmente à centralização. No Afeganistão, a consolidação política – e, especialmente, a militar – ocorre ao longo de linhas étnicas e de clãs, em uma estrutura basicamente feudal, onde os mediadores de poder mais decisivos são os organizadores das forças de defesa do clã. Quase sempre em conflito latente entre si, esses senhores da guerra se unem em coalizões, sobretudo quando alguma força externa – como o Exército britânico que invadiu, em 1839, e as forças armadas soviéticas, que ocuparam em 1979 – tenta impor centralização e coerência.

Tanto a calamitosa retirada britânica de Cabul, em 1842, na qual apenas um único europeu escapou da morte ou do cativeiro, quanto a decisiva retirada soviética do Afeganistão, em 1989, foram provocadas por essa mobilização temporária entre os clãs. O argumento hodierno de que o povo afegão não está disposto a lutar por si mesmo não tem respaldo histórico. Eles são combatentes ferozes por seus clãs e pela autonomia tribal.

Com o tempo, a guerra assumiu o caráter ilimitado das campanhas de contrainsurgência anteriores, nas quais o apoio interno aos americanos enfraqueceu progressivamente com o passar dos anos. A destruição das bases do Taleban foi essencialmente conseguida. Mas a construção de uma nação sobre um país dilacerado pela guerra absorveu forças militares substanciais. O Taleban podia ser contido, mas não eliminado. E a introdução de formas governamentais desconhecidas minou o compromisso político e aumentou a corrupção já abundante.

Assim, o Afeganistão repetiu os padrões anteriores de controvérsias domésticas americanas. O que o lado da contrainsurgência definia como progresso, o lado político tratava como desastre. Os dois grupos tenderam a paralisar um ao outro durante os sucessivos governos de ambos os partidos. Um exemplo é a decisão de 2009 de juntar um aumento de tropas no Afeganistão ao anúncio simultâneo de que elas começariam a se retirar em 18 meses.

O que se negligenciou foi uma alternativa concebível, combinando objetivos alcançáveis. A contrainsurgência poderia ter se reduzido à contenção, e não à destruição, do Taleban. E o curso político-diplomático poderia ter explorado um dos aspectos especiais da realidade afegã: o fato de os vizinhos do país – mesmo quando adversários um dos outros e, ocasionalmente, dos EUA – se sentirem ameaçados pelo potencial terrorista do Afeganistão.

Teria sido possível coordenar alguns esforços comuns de contrainsurgência? É verdade que Índia, China, Rússia e Paquistão costumam ter interesses divergentes. Uma diplomacia criativa poderia ter destilado medidas comuns para superar o terrorismo no Afeganistão. Essa estratégia é a forma como o Reino Unido defendeu as abordagens territoriais à Índia em todo o Oriente Médio por um século, sem bases permanentes, mas com prontidão constante para defender seus interesses, junto com apoiadores regionais ad hoc.

Mas essa alternativa nunca foi explorada. Depois de fazer campanha contra a guerra, os presidentes Donald Trump e Joe Biden empreenderam negociações de paz com o Taleban, com cuja extirpação os EUA haviam se comprometido, induzindo aliados a ajudá-los, 20 anos atrás. Tudo isso agora culminou no que equivale a uma retirada incondicional dos EUA por parte do governo Biden.

Descrever a evolução não elimina a insensibilidade e, sobretudo, a intempestividade da decisão da retirada. Por causa de suas capacidades e valores históricos, a América não pode escapar de ser um componentechave da ordem internacional. Não pode evitá-lo apenas retirando-se. Como combater, conter e superar o terrorismo aprimorado e apoiado por países com uma tecnologia crescente e cada vez mais sofisticada? Essa questão continuará a ser um desafio global, que deverá ser enfrentado pelos interesses estratégicos nacionais, juntamente com qualquer estrutura internacional que os EUA possam criar por meio de uma diplomacia proporcional.

Os americanos devem reconhecer que não haverá no futuro imediato nenhum movimento estratégico dramático para compensar esse revés autoinfligido, como assumir novos compromissos formais em outras regiões. A precipitação americana aumentaria o desapontamento entre os aliados, encorajaria os adversários e semearia confusão entre os observadores.

O governo Biden ainda está em seus estágios iniciais. Deve ter a oportunidade de desenvolver e sustentar uma estratégia compatível com as necessidades nacionais e internacionais. As democracias evoluem nos conflitos entre as partes. E alcançam grandeza por suas reconciliações.

sábado, 21 de agosto de 2021

Biografia situa Henry Kissinger entre o homem bélico e diplomata habilidoso, Barry Gewen - Martim Vasques da Cunha (OESP)

 Biografia situa Henry Kissinger entre o homem bélico e diplomata habilidoso

Kissinger é considerado pela esquerda moderada como criminoso de guerra e pela direita razoável um pensador refinado enquanto a direita nacionalista o chama de comunista rendido e a esquerda radical o ofende com um 'infiltrado imperialista'

Martim Vasques da Cunha*, Especial para o Estadão

21 de agosto de 2021 | 15h00


Na semana em que foi anunciada a vitória de Joe Biden para a presidência dos Estados Unidos, numa acirrada eleição que mudou o Ocidente para sempre, o escritor americano Walter Kirn – conhecido pelo público por ser o autor do livro que deu origem ao filme homônimo com George Clooney, o ácido Amor Sem Escalas (2009) – escreveu no Twitter que, na verdade, o vencedor se chamava Henry Kissinger.

issinger


Henry Kissinger, diplomata nascido na Alemanha, que teve importante papel nos EUA  

Foto: Gary Cameron/Reuters

 

Para quem não é um ‘millenial’ e ainda tem boa memória, o nome de Kissinger geralmente é confundido com o trocadilho infame de “Henry Killinger”. Considerado pela esquerda moderada como um “criminoso de guerra” e pela direita razoável como um “pensador refinado e um diplomata brilhante” (enquanto a direita nacionalista o chama de “comunista rendido” e a esquerda radical o ofende com um “infiltrado imperialista”), o autor do colossal Diplomacia (1994) – um tomo de mais de mil páginas que praticamente explica o surgimento da Nova Ordem Mundial que conhecíamos antes da peste do coronavírus – ganhou essa reputação graças ao fato de que foi, entre 1968 e 1975, o Secretário de Estado e Consultor de Segurança de ninguém menos que Richard Nixon e do sucessor deste último após o escândalo Watergate, Gerald Ford. 

Nesses anos, foi obrigado a lidar com assuntos mais do que urgentes como a Guerra Fria, o poder nuclear da União Soviética e – last but not least – o conflito no Vietnã. Como se esses problemas não fossem suficientes, ele também teve de administrar (segundo alguns, “ordenar” é a palavra exata) a interferência à soberania nacional de país latino-americanos, como o Chile em 1974 (com a queda de Salvador Allende) e o financiamento da “Guerra Suja” ocorrida em uma Argentina dominada pelo exército militar.

Por causa deste extenso currículo, Kissinger se tornou um personagem digno de biografias e tratados que tentam analisá-lo na sua ambiguidade (um termo muito importante para entender corretamente suas ações, de acordo com o próprio). Temos todo um mercado editorial sobre esse homem, desde o polêmico The Trial of Henry Kissinger (2001), do falecido Christopher Hitchens, passando pela primeira parte da biografia de Niall Ferguson, Kissinger 1923-1968: The Idealist (2015), até chegar ao produto mais recente – o complexo e instigante The Inevitability of Tragedy: Henry Kissinger and His World, do editor da prestigiada New York Times Book Review, Barry Gewen.

Na sua estreia literária, ocorrida após trinta anos retocando os textos dos outros, Gewen provocou um certo rebuliço ideológico entre seus pares. Notório por ser um progressista de quatro costados (afinal, ninguém trabalha por acaso no New York Times), ele os surpreendeu por escrever um livro que tentava compreender um sujeito que, para este “círculo dos sábios”, era mais do que alguém nefasto. Era o próprio mal encarnado.

Gewen se recusa a ir por essa vereda – mas não pelos motivos sorrateiros atribuídos a ele. Como o próprio subtítulo indica, não se trata de uma biografia, e sim de um ensaio que reflete sobre o “mundo” onde Kissinger nasceu e se formou: a Alemanha entre as duas guerras mundiais, mais precisamente a Alemanha de Weimar que depois seria a de Adolf Hitler. A partir daí, o que temos é uma excelente síntese da história das ideias políticas do século 20, centralizadas em três figuras essenciais para a educação do futuro diplomata do governo Nixon: Leo Strauss, Hannah Arendt e Hans Morgenthau.

Mesmo tendo pouco contato pessoal com os dois primeiros nomes, Kissinger foi um dos alunos favoritos do terceiro, hoje considerado o papa do “realismo político”. Apesar de ser divulgado por seus apoiadores como uma novidade do século 20, esse pensamento que fez fama na cátedra das Relações Internacionais é apenas uma variação do velho e bom Leviatã (1651), de Thomas Hobbes. Porém, há uma diferença: se, com Hobbes, a reflexão sobre o poder tinha como base o trauma das guerras civis inglesas do século 17, Morgenthau e Kissinger (junto a Strauss e Arendt) perceberam o problema sobre quem comanda de fato o Estado sob as sombras totalitárias do nazismo e do comunismo.

Para ambos, o início dessas moléstias coletivas não foram as benesses da democracia liberal – e sim justamente os seus excessos. Daí a desconfiança suprema em relação a este modelo de governo, justamente para preservá-lo – o que, segundo Gewen, esclareceria as intervenções de Kissinger em países como Chile e Argentina (para os defenderem da “ameaça vermelha”) e da intricada estratégia de détente, com exaustivas negociações para se alcançar o “equilíbrio” com o Vietnã e a União Soviética, apesar dos constantes (e mortíferos) bombardeios no Camboja e em Saigon.

No fundo, argumenta Gewen, o que impulsionaria a política de Kissinger é a noção aguda de uma ambiguidade que, se não for respeitada, terminará naquilo que seria a “inevitabilidade da tragédia”. Na política, de acordo com esse raciocínio, não há imperativos morais; há apenas o encontro com o desconhecido e ali, dentro de variáveis extremamente nebulosas, qualquer escolha corre o risco de ser não só a errada, mas sobretudo a mais letal de todas.

Isso não significa que Henry Kissinger é incapaz de ter uma ética. Sem dúvida, como todo o diplomata, ele possui princípios morais. O único problema é que ele os oculta com tamanha insistência para si mesmo que mal pode conhecê-los na realidade. Gewen evita o clichê de qualificá-lo como um político “maquiavélico”, mas também não cai na benevolência de um Niall Ferguson que o classifica como um “idealista” kantiano, afoito para implementar a “paz perpétua”, custe o que custar. A tragédia da política se torna inevitável, nesse caso, simplesmente porque os intérpretes deste “superkraut” (como a revista Time o chamou no auge da sua celebridade) jamais perceberam que, antes de tudo, ele faz parte de uma longa (e pouco divulgada) tradição histórica: a de ser um cortesão do poder.

Surgida no Renascimento, com a publicação do livro intitulado justamente O Cortesão (1528), escrito por Baldassare Castiglione, tal corrente de pensamento, se podemos chamá-la assim, promove uma forma de trilhar os labirintos da política por meio de uma “poética da dissimulação”, na qual o sujeito precisa usar constantemente uma máscara para agradar o governante e sua súcia, não só para preservar a própria vida, mas também a sua sobrevivência material. A consequência direta disso é a ausência de sinceridade e de qualquer decisão moral ao dizer a verdade quando ela se tornou a única alternativa possível, mesmo que ela seja amarga para o político que está no comando de uma nação. O disfarce, aqui, pode ser o discurso cifrado, a ironia, o humor jocoso, quando não o próprio elogio feito com segundas intenções. Enfim, tudo aquilo que jamais teve relação com a nobreza da tragédia.

Eis aí o equívoco maior de Barry Gewen ao compreender Kissinger. Não há nenhuma inevitabilidade de um destino cruel se o sujeito que pratica este tipo de política jamais permitiu, dentro do seu coração, a comunicação da verdade, principalmente para si mesmo – e para seus semelhantes. A tragédia precisa dessa purgação, pois seu impulso é uma reviravolta moral que faz o sujeito fascinado pelo poder entender que, ao fim e ao cabo, isto vale muito pouco na vida de uma pessoa realmente autêntica.

Não foi o caso de Henry Kissinger. Ele sempre gostou de ser uma “eminência parda”, mesmo nos anos em que não estava mais na Casa Branca. Foi ouvido por Reagan (a quem desprezava), Bush pai e filho, Bill e Hillary Clinton, e Barack Obama, mas jogado de escanteio por Donald Trump. Agora, com Joe Biden, ele tem uma segunda chance de voltar a ser um cortesão, com toda a sua graça e fleuma, senão fisicamente, pelo menos em espírito. Não é por acaso que, um dia após a posse do novo presidente americano, um comboio militar entrou na região noroeste da Síria, um país que até então tinha uma intervenção suave no governo anterior, em especial porque a ditadura de Bashar Al Assad era um obstáculo para o ressurgimento do Estado Islâmico. Motivo? “Preservar a democracia naquele local”. 

Com essa justificativa, é evidente que não há mais a ambiguidade da política quando a dissimulação volta em cena – conforme se comprovou na semana passada, com a saída das tropas americanas em Cabul, no Afeganistão, numa desastrosa retirada semelhante ao que ocorreu em Saigon, no ano de 1975, uma operação que também teve a impressão digital de Kissinger. E assim ficamos com o gosto do trágico na boca ao percebermos que, afinal de contas, Walter Kirn estava completamente certo quando escreveu que este cortesão de poder foi o verdadeiro vencedor naquelas eleições de 2020 que mudaram o Ocidente para sempre. Quem viver, verá.

*MARTIM VASQUES DA CUNHA É AUTOR DE ‘O CONTÁGIO DA MENTIRA’ (ÂYINÉ, 2020)


terça-feira, 23 de março de 2021

Henry Kissinger: a velha raposa maquiavélica-metternichiana. objeto de uma biografia - Round Table Book Review H-Diplo

Greetings Paulo Roberto Almeida,


New items have been posted in H-Diplo.

H-Net

H-Diplo Roundtable XXII-32 on Schwartz.  Henry Kissinger and American Power:  A Political Biography

by George Fujii

H-Diplo Roundtable XXII-32

Thomas A. Schwartz.  Henry Kissinger and American Power:  A Political Biography.  New York:  Hill and Wang, 2020.  ISBN:  9780809095377 (hardcover, $35.00).

22 March 2021 | https://hdiplo.org/to/RT22-32
Roundtable Editors:  Thomas Maddux and Diane Labrosse | Production Editor: George Fujii

Contents

Introduction by Jussi M. Hanhimäki, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva

Review by Susan Colbourn, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Review by Mario Del Pero, SciencesPo, Paris

Review by Carolyn Eisenberg, Hofstra University

Response by Thomas A. Schwartz, Vanderbilt University

 

Henry Alfred Kissinger is probably the most famous European-born American policy maker of the Cold War era.  The only person to have held the offices of secretary of state and national security adviser simultaneously (1973-1975), Kissinger is also extremely controversial.  He is widely recognized as the man who engineered the opening with China, détente with the Soviet Union, and the agreements that ended the 1973 October War in the Middle East.  But Kissinger has also been reviled for his fondness for secrecy, his support for expanding the Vietnam War to Cambodia, and his push for the overthrow of the democratically elected socialist Chilean president Salvador Allende.  Critics have further targeted Kissinger’s penchant for realpolitik, which arguably caused him to ignore the moral underpinnings of American foreign policy.

These long-standing and heated controversies have been the subject of an endless flow of books and articles over the past half-century.[1]  One is hence compelled to ask whether a new book on Kissinger is really necessary.  Is there something that we do not yet know about the career of the 56th secretary of state?  This is, more or less, the first question that the three reviewers of Thomas Schwartz’s book ask.  Schwartz’s answer is, in essence, twofold.  First, Kissinger has been, to an extent, forgotten; the man who enjoyed virtual rock star celebrity in the 1970s may still enjoy broad name recognition but his actual career – his policy achievements and failures – are so far removed from our fast-moving twenty-first century world that they appear anachronistic at best.  Second, much of the scholarship and journalism has sidestepped the impact of domestic politics on Kissinger’s decision-making. 

The three reviewers broadly agree with Schwartz’s rationale.  They all express appreciation for the author’s earnest aim to ‘introduce’ Henry Kissinger to younger audiences who have but scant knowledge or understanding of the controversies that has, for so long, been a trademark of Kissingerology.  Second, the reviewers concur that the distinctive scholarly contribution of Schwartz’s book is the emphasis he puts on domestic policy as a key determinant behind Kissinger’s decision-making.

Where disagreement emerges is, not surprisingly, on how the reviewers react to Schwartz’s effort to strike a non-polemic middle ground between the legion of extreme critics and fawning admirers.  For Carolyn Eisenberg, Schwartz fails to probe deeply into the controversies surrounding the human costs of some of the Nixon-Kissinger era foreign policy decisions (Vietnam, Chile).  Although she credits the book for “comprehensiveness and accessibility,” Eisenberg finds that “in his effort to write a fair-minded account of Henry Kissinger’s long career, Schwartz sidesteps the human consequences of his choices.”

In contrast, Susan Colbourn opines that Schwartz “offers a balanced and nuanced portrait” of the former secretary of state.  She particularly praises the emphasis on Kissinger’s public persona that – for the newer generation at least – is one of the most curious aspects of a career that began with a doctoral thesis about the Congress of Vienna.  Colbourn further credits Schwartz for his detailed coverage of Kissinger’s post-secretarial years that are probably worth a book or two in their own right.

If Eisenberg and Colbourn’s reviews provide a contrast that is reminiscent of the long-lasting controversy that surrounds (the now 97-year-old) Kissinger, Mario Del Pero’s review provides the most surprising twist.  In effect, Del Pero interprets Schwartz’s extensive emphasis on domestic politics and desire for personal popularity as a “perhaps unintentional” attack on Kissinger’s originality and intellectual capabilities.  “It is,” Del Pero concludes, “hard to imagine a more damning critique for someone who built his unique fame on his alleged intellectual prowess,” than the one found in Henry Kissinger and American Power.

In the end, the three reviews illustrate why Kissingerology continues to revolve around debates over whether ‘HAK’ represents the good, the bad, or the ugly of American foreign policy.  It is an argument without end.  This basically means that for all the considerable merits of Schwartz’s work, it is unlikely to remain, for very long, the last word on the subject.

Participants:

Jussi M. Hanhimäki is Professor of International History at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.  He is the author, among other works, of The Flawed Architect: Henry Kissinger and American Foreign Policy (New York, 2004) and The Rise and Fall of Détente: American Foreign Policy and the Transformation of the Cold War (Washington, D.C., 2013).  His latest book is Pax Transatlantica: America and Europe in the Post-Cold War Era, to be published by Oxford University Press in the spring of 2021.

Susan Colbourn is a DAAD postdoctoral fellow at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.  She is currently completing a transatlantic history of the Euromissiles and is at work on an international history of NATO’s Cold War. 

Mario Del Pero is Professor of International History at the Institut d’études politiques SciencesPo of Paris.  He is currently writing a book on a group of Texan evangelical missionaries in early Cold War Italy where he tries to apply the methods and insights of micro-history to the study of the Global Cold War.

Carolyn Eisenberg is a professor of American history and U.S. foreign policy at Hofstra University.  Her book Drawing the Line the American Decision to Divide Germany, 1944-49 was awarded the Stuart Bernath Prize, the Herbert Hoover Library Prize and was a finalist for the Lionel Gelber Award.  She has completed a manuscript, Never Lose: Nixon, Kissinger and the Illusion of National Security

 

Do we really need another book about Henry Kissinger?  Given the sheer number already out there, and the flurry of recent publications about the former national security adviser and secretary of state, what is there left to say?[2]

Thomas Schwartz convinced me that we do — or, at the very least, did, before the publication of Henry Kissinger and American Power.

Schwartz charts a careful course in this political biography.  He is determined to avoid the charged landscape surrounding Kissinger; claims that Kissinger was a ‘war criminal’ do appear in the text, but as historical evidence in their own right, part of the book’s broader aim to account for Kissinger’s career, his influence, and his significance, and not as judgements from the author. Henry Kissinger and American Power is explicitly aimed at a younger generation, “an attempt,” as Schwartz puts it, “to explain who Henry Kissinger was, what he thought, what he did, and why it matters” (5).

At this task Schwartz excels.  Henry Kissinger and American Power offers an overview of the broad contours of Kissinger’s life and career that touches on critical moments from the Vietnam War and the opening to the People’s Republic of China to his shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East.  Schwartz deftly covers these issues, often encapsulating complicated issues with both clarity and concision.  Take, for example, the ins and outs of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) during Gerald Ford’s presidency.  Within a few short pages, Schwartz sums up the complicated bureaucratic wrangling over cruise missile options, the new Soviet Backfire bomber, and the Secretary’s desire to secure an agreement on SALT II in order to shore up Ford’s 1976 campaign. I would have like to have read more about Kissinger’s frustration with the Federal Republic of Germany’s pursuit of Ostpolitik (especially given Schwartz’s earlier work on transatlantic relations) and the deliberations surrounding the New International Economic Order. [3] A fuller discussion of both would have added even more texture to an already rich discussion of Kissinger’s diplomatic style.

What sets Henry Kissinger and American Power apart is not new details but the portrait of Kissinger as a fundamentally political animal.  “He recognized,” Schwartz argues, “the centrality of politics to foreign policy and knew how deeply intertwined with the American system foreign policy and domestic politics were” (10). 

Central to Kissinger’s political instincts was his celebrity.  Schwartz’s sources speak to this immense and evolving celebrity at home and abroad, as does the book’s structure.  Each of the seven chapters opens with a vignette; each is a brief episode from the fulsome television coverage of Kissinger, drawn from the Vanderbilt Television News Archive.  Chapter 3, for instance, begins with reactions to a Kissinger press briefing in January 1972.  In one TV spot, Dan Rather of CBS introduced Kissinger as a “Secretary of State without title, swinging bachelor ladies’ man, masterful explainer, propaganda artist, [and] skilled briefer” (120).  Coverage like this offers a glimpse into Kissinger’s public persona during the early 1970s, an introduction for those of a younger generation who are unfamiliar with — and likely a bit baffled by — Kissinger’s ‘sex appeal’ and, for that matter, the days of news coverage from three television channels.

This focus on celebrity culminates in the final chapter and epilogue, as Schwartz traces Kissinger’s trajectory after leaving office in January 1977.  In the years and decades since, Kissinger has been a perennial commentator, an author, a high-profile consultant, and an unusual celebrity, even appearing, as Schwartz reminds us, in a Stephen Colbert sketch set to the music stylings of Daft Punk.  The twists and turns of Kissinger’s post-secretarial years are fascinating — and Schwartz brings them to life with colorful detail.  At times, I wondered where episodes of Kissingerian commentary I have run across in my own research might fit in this arc, like the kerfuffle he caused in transatlantic relations when, in the autumn of 1979, he remarked that “we must face the fact that it is absurd to base the strategy of the West on the credibility of mutual suicide.”[4] But these are selfish curiosities.  If anything, the fact that Kissinger’s career out of office has been, not unlike his eight years in office, too sizable and varied to cover in its entirety is yet another sign of Kissinger’s enduring significance.  Certainly, Schwartz leaves no doubt on this front, recounting, for instance, the 2008 election where Democrats and Republicans alike burnished their foreign policy credentials with references to Kissinger’s diplomacy.

Henry Kissinger and American Power is engaging and extraordinarily well-written, and will appeal to a wide audience seeking to understand how the proverbial sausage of U.S. foreign policy gets made. Schwartz offers a balanced and nuanced portrait of Kissinger and does so in a way that, at once, introduces Kissinger to a new audience and offers new insights to those already very familiar with Kissinger’s career. 

 

Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger “was said to have a taste for stardom, that he was a foreign policy prima donna,” France’s Foreign Minister Michel Jobert mused during the 1973 Middle East crisis.  He concluded, “But I believe his taste was for politics.  He is a politician above else” (10).  While fairly conventional in its structure and in the selection of the issues on which it focuses, from Vietnam to the opening to China, and from the SALT negotiations to Kissinger’s virtuoso Middle East shuttle diplomacy, Thomas Schwartz’s very fine political biography of Kissinger tackles an angle that is often overlooked in the never receding field of ‘Kissingerology:’: how domestic political concerns and necessities inform and shape foreign policy discourse and policies. In Schwartz’s apt and original rendering, Kissinger, the erudite realist intellectual called to provide conceptual coherence and historical depth to the U.S. approach to international matters, is in fact a quintessential political actor: a “politician, and a man who understood that American foreign policy is fundamentally shaped and determined by the struggles and battles of American domestic politics” (9).  In adopting this approach and in spite of a narrative that at times is a bit dry and over dense, Schwartz offers a remarkably intelligent and sensible assessment of Kissinger’s years in government: possibly the best we have to date. 

Quite orthodox in its structure, the book is divided into three parts.  The first is a sort of biographical snapshot covering the period prior to President Richard Nixon’s fateful decision to appoint Kissinger as his National Security Adviser.  The second – the bulk of the volume – deals with Kissinger’s tenure as in that position and, later, Secretary of State in the Nixon and Ford administrations.  The third, remarkably rich and original, covers the post-governmental years, Kissinger’s frequent attempts to get a second stint in the Republican administrations of the 1980s and 90s, and his work as a much sought (and handsomely remunerated) consultant and media pundit. 

In intention, Schwartz’s is a very balanced examination of Kissinger’s intellectual and political parable, neither prejudicially critical nor too laudatory: a solid middle ground between the numerous ‘war criminal’ condemnations and the many ‘Super K’ hagiographies, old and new.[5]  Schwartz praises the coherence of Kissinger’s vision and strategy, his awareness of the limits of post-Vietnam American power, and his ability to defend the national interest by fine-tuning foreign policy according to these new limits and constraints. According to Schwartz, “Kissinger understood the limits of American power” (118).  His ascendancy in the Nixon administration owed a lot “to his bureaucratic maneuvering, his skill with the media, and his relationship with Nixon,” but “it also stemmed from is ability to discuss foreign policy in new ways, and his language of retrenchment and realism was perfectly coordinated with the political mood of the nation” (118).

Schwartz convincingly shows how Kissinger well understood that domestic legitimacy was the key precondition to an effective foreign policy and that, somehow circularly, the latter served to score domestic political victories, reinforcing the administration and rendering it even more capable of dealing effectively with international challenges and changes.  “While not a traditional politician  (Kissinger’s foreign birth precluded him from running for president, and he did not hold rallies, kiss babies, or give formal campaign speeches),” Schwartz writes “he recognized the centrality of politics to foreign policy and knew how deeply intertwined within the American system foreign policy and domestic politics were. He adjusted his perspective and recommendations accordingly.” (10)

But Kissinger’s attention to (if not obsession for) domestic politics, and his willingness to blend foreign policy choices and initiatives in order to score political (and, for his boss, electoral) victories at home, had also another, less virtuous objective: they helped to strengthen him bureaucratically, within the administrations he served, and publicly, in his continuous search for popularity, appreciation, and approval. Foreign policy was ‘personalized’ as never before, Schwartz reminds us, transforming Kissinger into a sort of media celebrity, revered by the many journalists he incessantly cultivated and aptly manipulated.  On this Schwartz does not really break new ground, although he intelligently uses a primary source, TV news, that scholars still often neglect.  Thanks to the historical record, Kissinger skills at self-promotion and his duplicitous propensity to flatter and denigrate the very same person (including Nixon) are well known and documented.  And yet, the reader cannot but be shocked by how brazen Kissinger could be, either as the ruthless bureaucratic infighter, ready to use all possible tricks to marginalize his potential competitors (beginning with Nixon’s first Secretary of State, William Rogers) or as the “consummate courtier” (117) of the Presidents he served (or those he thought he could serve, including the hopeless Vice-President Dan Quayle, whom Kissinger described to his liberal friend Arthur Schlesinger Jr. as “well-informed and intelligent,” which accordingly to Schlesinger meant “that Quayle listens reverently to Henry and that Henry thinks Quayle may be President someday” (381).  

The interpretation Schwartz offers, with its emphasis on Kissinger’s attention/obsession for both domestic politics and personal popularity, produces a critique that is often as indirect (and perhaps unintentional) as it is ferocious.  Kissinger was “personally insecure to the point of paranoia,” (40) Schwartz writes.  His published writings, “as interesting and insightful as” they “often are” “should be approached as primarily instrumental, designed less for intellectual consistency than for political utility” (35).  Published in 1961, Kissinger’s famous The Necessity for Choice [6]– a book examining various challenges for U.S. foreign policy – was little more than “a job application” (47) in the Kennedy administration, Schwartz maintains.  As scholars of Kissinger know very well, he could be brutal with his subordinates as well as remarkably superficial and binary in his analyses and policy prescription.  Discussing the effects of the Arab oil boycott following the October 1973 war, Kissinger mused with nostalgia on nineteenth-century imperialism, when the United States and its allies would have intervened militarily and assumed direct control of the oil fields, and denounced as ridiculous a contemporary age when, in his words, “the civilized world is held up by 8 million savages” (246).  A politician more than an intellectual, Kissinger was also “far more a tactician than a strategist, and his real skill was in his ability to react and respond to international events and trends” (407), Schwartz concludes.  And despite Schwartz’s admirable effort to provide readers with a full and balanced picture of Kissinger’s thoughts, deeds and policies, at the end it is hard to imagine a more damning critique for someone who built his unique fame on his alleged intellectual prowess, propensity to conceptualize and look for long term structural solutions, and ability to educate the American public to the complex and impenetrable arcana of international relations. 

 

For people of a certain age, it might be a surprise that few of today’s college students know much, or even anything about Henry Kissinger.  Decades ago, he was a foreign policy colossus, whose every word was eagerly perused by politicians and journalists alike.  Moreover, in the aftermath of his official role in the Nixon and Ford administrations, he has continued to be a sought-after expert by high level policymakers and the mainstream media. 

Thomas Schwartz is aware that for the young people he teaches, “Henry Kissinger is not very well known or understood.” It is for them that he has written this book.  His aim is “to explain who Henry Kissinger was, what he thought, what he did, and why it matters.”  (5)

The literature on Kissinger is already vast, including the subject’s detailed memoirs,[7] and extended list of books and articles.  There are numerous studies of Kissinger’s role during the period 1969-75,[8] plus the many works on President Richard Nixon’s foreign policy, which give substantial attention to his National Security Advisor and later Secretary of State.[9]

Why then another book?  From the outset, Schwartz signals his dissatisfaction with the work of fellow historians, many of whom are sharply critical of Kissinger’s activities.  But he also disassociates himself from establishment analysts who have lionized Kissinger’s activity.  In his opinion, this hitherto polarized discussion “does little to provide any real understanding of the historical role he has played, or the consequences and legacy of his public life and career” (8).

The reader is therefore alerted from the outset that this will be a “middle-of-the-road” book, which will stay away from the “thundering moral pronouncements of condemnation that are commonplace among academics and political activists” (4), while avoiding excessive praise.  The author’s aim is to “reintroduce” Henry Kissinger as “a brilliant man who thought seriously, and with great insight about the foreign policy issues of the time, but who was given to deception and intrigue…” (8).

The strength of Schwartz’s book lies in its comprehensiveness and accessibility.  He carefully chronicles Kissinger’s outlook and activities from the time he returned from Germany in the aftermath of World War II to the early days of the Trump administration, when he proffered his geopolitical advice.  The author eschews gossip and polemics, while highlighting the rationale and significance of Kissinger’s specific policy choices.  In the future, professional historians and other writers can usefully consult this volume as offering a detailed, factual framework for examining Kissinger’s evolving position. 

Yet in his effort to be dispassionate, Schwartz’ diligent recitation of Kissinger’s words and actions, omits many essential tasks.  With rare exceptions, he fails to provide an independent discussion of the issues at stake.  If today’s students are indeed a target audience, then it would be helpful to illuminate the nature of the Vietnam War, so that they can better understand why it was controversial.  Throughout the narrative, Schwartz alludes to domestic opposition to the Administration’s handling of Vietnam.  He also makes it clear that this was a significant constraint on Nixon and Kissinger’s policy.  But were these opponents simply a nuisance, as the two were apt to think, or did they have important insights and concerns that ought to have weighed more heavily? 

Among the factors generating antiwar sentiment in the United States, and around the world, was a growing realization of the repressive, authoritarian nature of the South Vietnamese regime.  Associated with its unpopularity was a demoralized and at times insubordinate South Vietnamese Army.  For critics, these circumstances both undermined the moral basis of the American position and portended its eventual defeat.  From this book, we learn that Kissinger was not oblivious to the vulnerability of Saigon, but this led him to resist troop withdrawals and to advocate for more violent U.S. initiatives.  Unless the reader is already familiar with the arguments, however, this relevant context is missing. 

The same holds true for many other issues, large and small.  While the existence of alternative perspectives is acknowledged, there is not much effort to amplify them.  The inevitable result is to give Kissinger the last word on most contested subjects.  A case in point is the author’s discussion of the SALT negotiations.  Although much of this transpired in secret, Kissinger’s high-handed interventions in those talks generated complaints from both sides of the political spectrum.  Schwartz mentions the dissatisfaction without amplifying it.  On the one hand, Kissinger’s flat out refusal to consider a ban on multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) opened the door to one of the most de-stabilizing weapons in the nuclear field. On the other hand, his acceptance of Russian superiority in land-based and sea-launched missiles became the occasion for an angry movement by conservatives, who would later block further progress in arms control. 

On the topic of arms control, perhaps the best source is Gerard Smith, chief U.S. negotiator for the Strategic Arms Limitation talks in Helsinki and Vienna, 1969- 1971.  In 1985, when he wrote his book Doubletalk, he certainly had an ax to grind, since Kissinger had undermined his negotiations with the Russians at every step of the way.[10] At the same time, there was nobody more expert on the content and character of the talks.  Nevertheless, Schwartz makes slight use of his account. 

Given the overwhelming primary and secondary literature, it is of course understandable that an historian might miss a particular book, or even more.  What is troublesome however, is the author’s neglect of all dissenting voices.  It is not simply a disgruntled arms controller or peace movement spokesman whose words are missing.  Despite thousands of declassified transcripts, the reader rarely if ever sees a quote from Le Duc Tho, Senior Advisor to the North Vietnamese delegation to the Paris peace talks, Zhou Enlai, Premier of the People’s Republic of China or Leonid Brezhnev, Chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet when they interacted with Kissinger.  Did these historical actors never say a worthwhile thing?  For a different perspective we mainly get the ruminations of Richard Nixon. 

One strength of Schwartz’ narrative is that the author is keenly attuned to fawning, self-promoting nature of Kissinger’s relationship with the president.  He demonstrates that many of Kissinger’s positions were designed to advance his standing with Nixon, while reflecting poorly on less bellicose rivals within the administration.  Moreover, as National Security Advisor, Kissinger zealously cultivated flocks of reporters and famous admirers, whose adulation increased his value to the chief executive, even if it sometimes provoked Nixon’s jealousy. 

This study contains the implication that on various occasions Kissinger departed from his own predilections for the purpose of wooing the president.  The controversial case of Chile is one example.  “Before September 1970 Kissinger ignored Chile and denigrated its significance.” (109).  But the rise of Socialist party candidate Salvador Allende is infuriating to Nixon.  Thus, understanding “the President’s passions, Kissinger played to them.” He took charge of an administration effort to promote a coup before Allende’s inauguration.  And having failed in that attempt, he oversaw what became a long-term effort to destabilize the regime and promote a military overthrow.

These interventions in Chilean affairs form part of the critics’ indictment of Kissinger as ‘a war criminal.’ And clearly, Schwartz regards them as objectionable - a case of poor judgement and excessive zeal.  Yet running through his account is an undertow of rationalization.  This after all is what Nixon wanted, he explains.  And there were legitimate reasons for concern.  Allende “had close ties to Fidel Castro and the Soviet Union” and the KGB had “spent considerably” to promote his election and subsequently remained active in the country (108).  While acknowledging that the Nixon administration overreacted and behaved badly, Schwartz asserts that any suggestion “that Kissinger was the author of Allende’s demise gives him too much blame - or credit” (112). 

However destructive for the Chilean people, the US activities there were of peripheral concern to Kissinger.  For the National Security Advisor and Nixon, the main challenge in 1972 was managing the interconnected problems of Vietnam, relations with China, and with the Soviet Union.  Schwartz suggests that on these items, the two were beginning to diverge.  For the president extrication from Vietnam was the main preoccupation, whereas Kissinger was thinking about the new structure of international relations, in which the ‘triangular’ interactions of the superpowers would hold sway.  That assessment seems questionable.  Based on the archival records, it is apparent that Kissinger was equally riveted to the Vietnam situation and as important his diplomacy with the Soviets and the Chinese was significantly shaped by the administration’s failure in Southeast Asia. 

Schwartz appropriately recognizes the achievement of the two men in improving the international atmosphere, especially in taking the long overdue step of accepting the existence of the People’s Republic of China and significantly reducing tensions with the Soviet Union. 

Yet he too readily accepts the Kissinger version of events.  In his rendering, by skillfully playing off the rivalry of the two communist superpowers, he extracted significant concessions, including some assistance in pressuring Hanoi to make a settlement, closer to the administration’s terms.  A related premise is that North Vietnamese leaders had been chastened by the failure of their Easter offensive and were now eager to exit the war.  These combined developments produced the ‘trifecta’ of accomplishments which propelled Richard Nixon into a second term of office and set a bold new pattern of international relations.

Yet this account ignores the weakness and vulnerability of the American position.  By the spring of 1971, when Chinese leader Zhou Enlai extended his invitation for a U.S. emissary to visit Beijing, Nixon’s policy in Vietnam was in shambles.  As Schwartz notes, the South Vietnamese foray into Laos was a failure, but so too were the South’s ongoing operations in Cambodia.  As American troops were pulled back, the inability of the South Vietnamese military to offer effective resistance had become manifest.  Meanwhile Kissinger’s negotiations with the North Vietnamese were going nowhere. 

As an election neared, the Presidential visits to China and the Soviet Union had become essential, if for no other reason than to change the script and reincarnate Nixon as a man of peace.  Many other concerns applied, but this included a need for help with the frozen Paris negotiations.  However, that assistance required American concessions to the Soviets and the Chinese.  It is an ironic turn of events that after fighting an unnecessary war for American ‘credibility,’ that Kissinger struck a deal on arms control that opened the door to Soviet superiority in strategic weapons, while making it clear to the Chinese that the American commitment to Taiwan would be curtailed during Nixon’s second term.  On top of this was the absurdity of his enlistment of Soviet and Chinese diplomats in his petty plans to marginalize the Secretary of State, William Rogers.

The Soviets and Chinese did pressure Hanoi, as Nixon and Kissinger desired.  But they did so in a limited way, continuing their economic and military aid, while counseling flexibility.  Nevertheless, by the fall of 1972, the North Vietnamese did change their negotiating position, abandoning their requirement that the Thieu government step down as a pre-requisite to a cease-fire.  Schwartz suggests that international pressure, combined with a failed Easter offensive, induced that change. 

But there is reason for skepticism about Kissinger’s formulations.  During the spring of 1972, the North Vietnamese military had been steadily advancing, because the ARVN (Army of the Republic of Vietnam) was unable to stop it.  It was not until the massive U.S. bombing in South Vietnam that the offensive was finally halted.  However, by the time the fighting had stopped, the number of North Vietnamese troops now located in the South had significantly increased, numbering an estimated 130,000-140,000. 

It was against this backdrop that the North Vietnamese negotiator, Le Duc Tho, accepted the temporary continuation of the Thieu government.  He did so with the clear expectation that Hanoi’s troops would remain in the South and would exercise jurisdiction in those locations.  At the time, and forever after, Kissinger has tried to claim Hanoi’s concession as a remarkable accomplishment, but it was far less than he advertised.  His subsequent complaints that this excellent peace agreement failed to work because the U.S. Congress would not honor its commitment cannot withstand scrutiny.  

In his effort to write a fair-minded account of Henry Kissinger’s long career, Schwartz sidesteps the human consequences of his choices.  Richard Nixon was the ultimate ‘decider,’ but the National Security Advisor and later Secretary of State played a major role, as the author demonstrates.  What then were the results of their decisions?  How did their choices affect the lives of Vietnamese, Laotians, Cambodians, Chileans, and even U.S. soldiers?  Describing the policy process, while paying scant attention to their effects reproduces Kissinger’s personal myopia.

Indeed, from the thousands of declassified documents and tapes now available, one looks in vain for any sign of concern by Kissinger about the possible harm to other people, Americans or others.  Schwartz identifies one occasion, when Kissinger worried about killing civilians, only to be rebuked by Nixon for this lapse.  However, this exchange was unusual.  More typical was his effort to win Nixon’s approval, by his embrace of harsh policies, rejected by others in the Administration, notably Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird and Rogers. 

This review focuses on the first four years of the Nixon Administration.  However, the author has undertaken a more ambitious project of describing the entirety of Henry Kissinger’s public career.  In that regard, Schwartz has accomplished what he set out to do by clearly describing the ideas, spoken words, and actions of Kissinger across the decades.  He concludes with the fair observation that this “complicated man” was truly “a symbol of America’s international power.” (416).  But how that power has been used internationally remains the searing question.

 

It is a great honor to have a roundtable of such distinguished reviewers examining my book, Henry Kissinger and American Power: A Political Biography.  Authors can grow defensive about projects they have worked on for years, and I confess to feeling that way sometimes when I have read various reviews.[11]  However, Susan Colbourn, Mario Del Pero, and Carolyn Eisenberg have all engaged my book in a serious and professional manner, and I am deeply grateful to them for their analysis.

I wrote Henry Kissinger and American Power: A Political Biography as part of a publishing series that seeks to use biography as means of teaching a broader subject, in this case the history of United States foreign relations.  My goal was to use Kissinger’s biography to show the degree to which foreign relations and domestic politics are intertwined within the American system, and compel readers to recognize that this connection makes for a very messy and complicated policy process.  I also wrote about Henry Kissinger after becoming aware of how little my students knew about him and his important role in recent American history.  Whether I succeeded in either of these objectives is something I have to leave to readers to judge

I could not help but smile as I read the Susan Colbourn’s review and thought about my editor, Alex Star, and his insistence that I cut more than 25 percent out of the manuscript I originally submitted.  I told Alex that I was sure one of the first reviews would mention something that I had removed from the book, and that was the case with my treatment of Nixon and Kissinger’s reaction toward the German policy of Ostpolitik.  I cut some of what Colbourn would have liked me to cover because I had edited a volume with Matthias Schulz that examined many of these issues.[12]  I cannot say the same about her comment about Kissinger and issue of the “New International Economic Order.”  I knew from my research in the television archive that this attracted public attention, but it did not seem to have engaged Kissinger on a personal level and I did not find very much in the documents.  Kissinger’s well-known distaste for economic issues played a role, but I may simply have missed it.  I agree with Colbourn that this is an issue that deserves greater attention.

Colbourn also discusses Kissinger’s career after he left office, something I attempted to cover in my last chapter.  However, I admit that my research and conclusions here are rather tentative.  As to Kissinger’s commentary on transatlantic issues such as the one Colbourn mentions in 1979, I see his newspaper columns as his attempt to stay relevant, and at the time, it was still a very likely possibility he might again become Secretary of State.  Kissinger’s suggestion that mutually assured destruction as a matter of strategy had serious flaws is an idea that President Ronald Reagan shared, although Reagan would not have expressed it in the same way.  Kissinger may well have been positioning himself to offer some alternative to a future president.  I agree with Colbourn that it would be interesting to examine the background to Kissinger’s expressions of these opinions and political op-eds.  Yet because these personal records of Kissinger also discuss his extensive business consulting and other sensitive matters, I seriously doubt that they will become available to researchers in the near future.  One of my editors suggested that there is a whole other book in Kissinger’s private role in international politics and globalization over the last half-century.  However, I doubt that it will be fully possible to write it for some time, even if Kissinger gives his biographer Niall Ferguson access to all of the records.

Although Mario Del Pero criticizes the narrative in the book as “a bit dry and over dense,” he is quite supportive of what I see as my most important contribution to understanding Kissinger, namely an assessment of Kissinger as a political actor, a man who understood that American foreign policy was shaped and determined by American domestic politics.  Del Pero, whose own outstanding work on Kissinger influenced my thinking,[13] praises my approach as “very balanced,” and a “solid middle ground,” between the “interpretive polarity,” of condemning Kissinger as a war criminal or praising him as America’s “greatest statesman.”  However at the end of what is basically a favorable review, Del Pero concludes that “it is hard to imagine a more damming critique” of Kissinger, given the image he had created of himself as the brilliant foreign policy practitioner who looked for “long term structural solutions” and sought to educate the American public in the complexity of foreign policy.

One thing that every author learns is that once your book is out there, people will read it in ways that you may not have intended.  For example, one reviewer in the very conservative Claremont Review of Books used my book to condemn Kissinger as an appeaser of the Soviet Union during his time in office, and insisted that Kissinger might be available to negotiate another “surrender” to China if he had the opportunity.[14]  Del Pero’s “damning critique” comment on my treatment of Kissinger’s foreign policy seems tame compared to that, but my question is “Compared to who or what?”  If anything is clear over the years since Kissinger was in office, we have seen much greater ineptitude, incompetence, and sheer stupidity in the handling of American foreign policy.  Although Kissinger may not be the towering strategic thinker he portrayed himself as in his memoirs, I would still maintain that he gave foreign policy an “intelligent design” that earned the respect of other world leaders as well as a majority of the American public.  One central point I wanted to convey in the book is that Kissinger did have to conduct foreign policy within the constraints of the American political system, and in recognition of a system in which domestic partisan politics and foreign policy were bound together.  Within that system, he did have some success, as well as a number of failures, especially Vietnam and Chile.  However, his diplomatic scorecard, especially in managing relations with the Soviet Union, opening toward China, and negotiating peace in the Middle East, does look fairly impressive when compared with that of his successors.

Carolyn Eisenberg’s review is the most critical of the book, and I recognize and respect that she comes at the book from a very different perspective from mine.  Let me try to respond to as many of her points as I can.  She thinks that despite my research and search for a balanced perspective on Kissinger to present to contemporary students, I fail “to provide an independent discussion of the issues at stake.”  Her prime example is Vietnam, with the argument that I do not make it clear that the United States was wrong to support the “repressive, authoritarian” South Vietnamese regime.  Again, I might say, compared to what?  The “people’s democracy” of North Vietnam, from which more than three million Vietnamese would desperately flee after the conquest of Saigon?  I would readily concede that South Vietnam proved a failed state, but in its fragmented and divided political system, it was far more open, pluralistic, and free than the totalitarian and communist dictatorship of North Vietnam.[15]  I make it clear in the book how irritated Kissinger could be with the stubborn defiance of Saigon’s leaders, who were anything but puppets of the Americans.  Thankfully, the work of a new generation of scholars is expanding our understanding of the Vietnamese civil war, and while American intervention was a historic mistake, the “human consequences,” which Eisenberg references, were far more morally complicated than she suggests.[16]

Eisenberg faults me for not using Gerald Smith’s book on SALT more extensively to criticize Kissinger’s conduct of the negotiations.[17]  While I agree that Smith’s work is illuminating on the details of the talks, my argument was that the domestic political imperative of an arms control agreement was what was paramount for Nixon and Kissinger.  Nixon wanted Kissinger to take personal control over the negotiations in order to make sure that the credit for a successful agreement went to Nixon, and not to State Department diplomats.  This approach led Kissinger to make mistakes and accept some compromises, such as Russian superiority in land-based and sea-based missiles, that would later cause him political problems.  However, on this particular issue, I confess to a certain sympathy for Kissinger’s exasperated plea, “What in the name of God is strategic superiority when you are at this level of warheads?” (266).  This statement got Kissinger into trouble with hawkish politicians in Washington, but it had the unusual quality for Kissinger of being true.

Eisenberg is also critical of the lack of quotations from Kissinger’s adversaries, figures like North Vietnamese negotiator Le Duc Tho, Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, or Zhou Enlai, the Chinese Premier.  I find it puzzling that she refers to these figures as “dissenting voices,” an unusual euphemism for the leaders of enemy states.  I do actually have quotations from all of them in the book, although much of the Brezhnev material is in the chapters dealing with Nixon-Ford period from 1973-1976, which Eisenberg does not address in her review.  Some of the other quotations were victims of the editing process I mentioned earlier, but I seriously doubt that more ideological bon mots from these Communist leaders would have added very much to the narrative.

I think that Eisenberg reads me correctly on Chile, although I reject her claim that mentioning Chilean President Salvador Allende’s ties to Castro and the Soviet Union makes for “an undertow of rationalization.”  Although I argue that Nixon and Kissinger overreacted to the threat, they were not delusional about Allende’s political leanings.  The intervention in Chile was one of the worst mistakes of the Nixon-Kissinger foreign policy, but my judgment is that it exaggerates American power to think that the United States policy caused the overthrow of the Allende government.  

Eisenberg challenges my discussion of the “divergence” between Nixon and Kissinger in early 1972, a divergence she thinks is “questionable” on the issue of Vietnam.  In my view, the documents and tapes do show that Nixon and Kissinger did disagree on the importance of Vietnam as opposed to the Moscow summit in the spring of 1972.  Nixon believed it was imperative for him to preserve South Vietnam for his domestic political viability, whereas Kissinger thought the Moscow summit and an arms control agreement were more important objectives for the Administration.  I use this as an example of how domestic politics shaped foreign policy during this period, and to show the degree to which Kissinger did not always fully comprehend Nixon’s political concerns.

Eisenberg’s description of Kissinger’s flawed peace agreement of 1973 is not one with which I would fundamentally disagree, although I think she assumes the North Vietnamese leadership was as pleased with it and confident of success that in hindsight they should have been.  In fact, both Pierre Asselin and Lien-Hang Nguyen’s work suggests that accepting the peace settlement was a bitter pill for Le Duan and the Communist leadership, who had gambled on the Easter Offensive and taken huge casualties.[18]  The willingness of the North Vietnamese government to sacrifice an extraordinary number of their own people in pursuit of forced reunification under Communist rule reflects their own domestic imperatives, and perhaps one day will be debated in a more democratic and pluralist Vietnam.

Jussi Hanhimäki, whose book on Kissinger first inspired me to approach the subject, observes that my book is “unlikely to remain, for very long, the last word on the subject.”[19]  He is right, of course, but his observation also reflects the significance of the issues and events that Henry Kissinger is connected with, and his importance as both a practitioner and symbol of American power in the twentieth century. 

 

Notes

[1] A few notable and relatively examples include Niall Ferguson, Kissinger: The Idealist, 1923-1968 (New York: Penguin, 2015); Greg Grandin, Kissinger’s Shadow: The Long Reach of America’s Most Controversial Statesman (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2015); Winston Lord, Kissinger on Kissinger (New York: All Points Books, 2015). For a detailed – but significantly out-of-date – historiographical review, see Jussi M. Hanhimäki, “‘Dr. Kissinger’ or ‘Mr. Henry’?  Kissingerology, Thirty Years and Counting,” Diplomatic History 27:5 (November 2003): 637-676.

[2] See, for some recent examples, Barry Gewen, The Inevitability of Tragedy: Henry Kissinger and His World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2020); Robert K. Brigham, Reckless: Henry Kissinger and the Tragedy of Vietnam (New York: PublicAffairs, 2018); Niall Ferguson, Kissinger, 1923-1968: The Idealist (New York: Penguin, 2015); Greg Grandin, Kissinger’s Shadow: The Long Reach of America’s Most Controversial Statesman (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2015).

[3] Thomas Alan Schwartz, America’s Germany: John J. McCloy and the Federal Republic of Germany (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001); Thomas Alan Schwartz, Lyndon Johnson and Europe: In the Shadow of Vietnam (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2003); Matthias Schulz and Thomas A. Schwartz, eds., The Strained Alliance: U.S.-European Relations from Nixon to Carter (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010).

[4] Paul Lewis, “U.S. Pledge to NATO To Use Nuclear Arms Criticized by Kissinger,” The New York Times, September 2, 1979.

[5] For two perfect examples of this interpretative polarity, see Christopher Hitchens, The Trial of Henry Kissinger (New York: Verso, 2001) and the more recent Niall Ferguson, Kissinger the Idealist, 1923-1968 (New York: Penguin, 2015). 

[6] Henry Kissinger, The Necessity for Choice: Prospects of American Foreign Policy (New York: Harper, 1961)

[7] Henry Kissinger, Ending the Vietnam War: A History of America’s Involvement and Extrication from the Vietnam War.  (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2003); White House Years (Boston: Little Brown, 1979); Years of Upheaval (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979).

[8] Larry Berman, No Peace, No Honor: Nixon, Kissinger and Betrayal in Vietnam (New York: Free Press, 2001); Robert K. Brigham, Reckless: Henry Kissinger and the Tragedy of Vietnam (New York: Public Affairs 2018); Robert Dallek, Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power (New York: Harper Collins 2007); Mario del Pero, The Eccentric Realist: Henry Kissinger and the Shaping of American Foreign Policy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2010); Greg Grandin, Kissinger’s Shadow (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2015); Jussi Hanhimaki, The Flawed Architect: Henry Kissinger and American Foreign Policy.(New York: Oxford University Press, 2004); Seymour M.Hersh, The Price of Power: Kissinger in the Nixon White House. (New York: Summit Books, 1983); Chris Hitchins, The Trial of Henry Kissinger (New York: Verso, 2001); Walter Isaacson, Kissinger (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1972); Richard A. Moss, Nixon’s Back Channel to Moscow, Confidential Diplomacy and Détente (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2017); Jeremy Suri, Henry Kissinger and the American Century (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2007).

[9] Pierre Asselin, A Bitter Peace: Washington, Hanoi and the Making of the Paris Agreement (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2002); Gary J.Bass, The Blood Telegram (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2018); William P. Bundy, Tangled Web: the Making of Foreign Policy in the Nixon Presidency (New York: I.B. Tauris, 1998); Jeffrey Kimball, The Vietnam War Files Uncovering the Secret History of Nixon-Era Strategy (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2004); Raymond L Garthoff, Détente and Confrontation: American-Soviet Relations from Nixon to Reagan, Rev.ed  (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1994); Jeffrey Kimball, Nixon’s Vietnam War (Lawrence: University of Kansas Press, 1998); Lien-Hang T, Nguyen, Hanoi’s War (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2012); Frederik Logevall and Andrew Preston (eds), Nixon in the World American Foreign Relations, 1969-1977 (New York City, Oxford University Press, 2008. ); Stephen Randolph, Powerful and Brutal Weapons Nixon, Kissinger and the Easter Offensive (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2007):William Shawcross, Sideshow: Kissinger, Nixon and the Destruction of Cambodia (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1979); Asaf  Siniver, Nixon, Kissinger, and U.S. Foreign Policy Making (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008).

[10] Gerard Smith, Doubletalk: The Story of SALT I by the Chief American Negotiator (Maryland: University Press of America, 1985).

[11] For example, the reviewer for the Christian Science Monitor reported that my book portrayed Nixon as deciding to invade Cambodia in May 1970 “while Kissinger was out of the room.” This is so wrong that I have to wonder if he read the book. https://www.csmonitor.com/Books/Book-Reviews/2020/0916/Kissinger-evokes-respect-and-vitriol-in-equal-measure

[12] Matthias Schulz and Thomas A. Schwartz, The Strained Alliance: U.S. – European Relations from Nixon to Carter (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010).

[13] Mario Del Pero, The Eccentric Realist: Henry Kissinger and the Shaping of American Foreign Policy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2010).

[14] David P. Goldman, “Indecent Interval,’ Claremont Review of Books (Fall 2020) https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/indecent-interval/

[15] On this point, I encourage scholars to read the work of younger scholars such as Sean Fear, who teaches at the University of Leads, and David Prentice at Oklahoma State University.  Fear has written a number of telling articles in the “Vietnam 67” series which the New York Times ran in 2017 and 2018.  His “How South Vietnam Defeated Itself,” February 23, 2018, was particularly insightful.  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/23/opinion/how-south-vietnam-defeated-itself.html

[16] I am influenced here by Christopher Goscha, Vietnam: A New History (New York: Basic Books, 2016).

[17] Gerard Smith, Doubletalk: The Story of SALT I by the Chief American Negotiator (Maryland: University Press of America, 1985).

[18] Pierre Asselin, Vietnam’s American War” A History (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2018) and Lien-Hang T. Nguyen, Hanoi’s War (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2012).

[19] Jussi Hahnimäki, The Flawed Architect: Henry Kissinger and American Foreign Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2004).